joshvanklomp said:
BringBackStutzriem said:
If you pit us against the four best programs that have, at one point, competed in the MWC (since 1999)...this is what you get:
vs. Utah: 2-10 record, outscored 413-173 (or, on average, 34.5 ppg to 14.4 ppg)
vs. BYU: 2-10 record, outscored 392-187 (or, on average, 32.7 ppg to 15.9 ppg)
vs. TCU: 1-6 record, outscored 250-78 (or, on average, 35.7 ppg to 11.1 ppg)
vs. Boise State: 0-9 record, outscored 352-109 (or, on average, 39.1 to 12.1 ppg)
Cumulatively, that is - against the top MWC competition - a total record of 5-35 (and two of those came in '99) with an outscored total of 1,407-547.
That, folks, is the gap that Wyoming is trying to close. And at the moment (being ranked #128 of 128 in FBS football), it's only widening.
The problem with that argument is that three of those teams are not in the MWC of today, or in the MWC of the next 20 years.
Looking at the teams that ARE in the Mountain West:
vs. New Mexico: Won 4 of last 6
vs. Air Force: Won 3 of last 4
vs. Colorado State: Won 4 of last 6
vs. San Diego State: Won 3 of last 5
vs. UNLV: Won 9 of last 11
vs. Utah State: Won 4 of last 7
vs. Nevada: Won 2 of last 4
vs. Hawaii: Won 4 of last 6
vs. San Jose State: Won 6 of last 7
The point of including those four programs was that, in the 80's and 90's, Wyoming routinely competed with BYU and Utah (and analogous, later incarnations like TCU and Boise State). The point is that the college football landscape has shifted dramatically since the 1990's, and Wyoming isn't in the same universe of any of those four schools anymore.
Picking Baylor (or Kansas State) as comparable situations overlooks the notion that those schools already were part of a major conference. Regardless of their doormat status, they still played the likes of Nebraska, Oklahoma, etc. And there is an indubitable draw to playing in a relevant conference, even if it's merely in an attempt to compete with Goliath. That's the difference. The core of the Mountain West today is defined by irrelevance. Take away Boise State and it joins the Sun Belt as the two most irrelevant conferences in major college football.
Back to the Baylor/K-State/Iowa State arguments, these schools still tout 50,000 seat stadiums. Baylor's meteoric rise has been wholly reflected by the college football arms race. Its new stadium cost nearly $270 million. Its facilities are out of this world. But you know what the real definer is? Baylor is located in a state of 27 million people.
There is no Division I/FBS program that faces the inherent, unchangeable population demographic challenges that Wyoming has to face. There is, inherently, a very small talent pool of local kids to play here. Recruiting is proving to be an even more-and-more difficult challenge in an Instagram, instant-gratification culture that we live in today. Here's the deal.
We, as Wyomingites, we love this place. We see the virtues of Wyoming. It's a fantastic state. It's one of the best places in the world, as far as I'm concerned, to live. But very few people see things our way, and that's why we have 550,000 people who live here. And that's why it's difficult to place Wyoming in the same "turnaround" conversation of a Baylor, K-State, or even Boise State.
Now, on the subject of Wyoming's recent successes against the MWC's other members: once again, this is a program that has won a total of 66 games since the year 2000 (4.4 per year). If you subtract the FCS wins, that's only 3.7 per year. If you go with wins over FBS teams with winning records, you're getting .67 wins over a winning team per season...or 2 wins every 3 years.
So, as we break down those programs, UNLV, New Mexico, and San Jose State have been three of the absolute worst programs in college football over the last decade, so there's no cause for celebration there. Hawaii is in a dismal state (and most of those wins you cited are from the WAC years). Nevada is also on the down, currently. But you're dismissing the fact that their 2010 season was more successful than anything Wyoming has had since the 80's, maybe even the 60's. Same goes for Hawaii under June Jones: they've hit double-digit wins four times since 2000. Utah State, admittedly, is a good example for which I might concede my points to your argument. Utah State might represent a "best-case" scenario for what Wyoming can hope to become under Bohl. If we can get into that 8-9 win mold, a la the Aggies, you're...well, you're where Utah State is. Air Force is routinely one of the nation's two most overachieving programs, and the Falcons have been to 9 bowls in the span that we've been to 3. And, finally, our favorite assholes to the south, CSU. The Rams, certainly, have been in the can for a long time and have underachieved ENORMOUSLY given that Fort Collins is routinely cited as one of America's most desirable places to live. Last season, they came back and won 10 games...and promptly got the shit kicked out of them by 35 points at the hands of a 9-4 Utah team that barely even was ranked in the top 25.
The ultimate point here is that the future incarnation of the Mountain West (one that realistically will be sans Boise State once the Broncos figure out the logistics of jumping to a major) is an amalgamation of football programs that are drifting farther and farther from relevance. The cost of tickets to go to Wyoming games is escalating every single year. You can almost get to a Denver Broncos game, if you're crafty, for only a slightly pricier endeavor than UW is costing you. And what's the ROI for a viewer?
Here's what I'll concede: Nevada's magical 2010 season with Kaepernick, Hawaii's 2007 campaign with Colt Brennan, etc...these are not out of the complete realm of imagination for Wyoming to achieve. Both of those seasons, obviously, were predicated on playing in a (mostly) weak WAC conference with only one other power to contend with. So I'm not 100% discounting the fact that Wyoming could put together a 10-2 or 11-1 campaign against a bunch of other mostly weak schools. I just don't think there's much evidence supporting that it's likely to happen anytime soon.
My arguments aren't infallible and you guys have raised some nice counterpoints. I want Wyoming to be great, too. I'm just viewing it realistically and having trouble seeing much room for hope. But maybe you can continue to talk me into it. I'm just really down on the past 5 seasons.
