Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?

[ragtimejoe1]

All you economists out there, how bad do you think it will get? All roses? Depression? Food shortages?

Personally, something seems way off. I'm afraid of what's coming this year. I have no idea what it will be; maybe nothing. Still seems like things are on pretty shaky ground right now.

 

[McPeachy]

All you economists out there, how bad do you think it will get? All roses? Depression? Food shortages?

Personally, something seems way off. I'm afraid of what's coming this year. I have no idea what it will be; maybe nothing. Still seems like things are on pretty shaky ground right now.

I am concerned about the "return" pricing of consumer goods as well...will we ever see prices pre-2020 / Covid / Biden?

Paid $6.49 for a pack of 6 fucking hotdogs last week...

 

[ragtimejoe1]

All you economists out there, how bad do you think it will get? All roses? Depression? Food shortages?

Personally, something seems way off. I'm afraid of what's coming this year. I have no idea what it will be; maybe nothing. Still seems like things are on pretty shaky ground right now.

I am concerned about the "return" pricing of consumer goods as well...will we ever see prices pre-2020 / Covid / Biden?

Paid $6.49 for a pack of 6 f##k[#] hotdogs last week...

Yeah, the transportation inflation alone stands to derail many supply chains. Wheat is at an all time low in terms of storage. They are already limiting purchases of flour, pasta, etc. in some areas of Europe.

 

[Wyokie]

All you economists out there, how bad do you think it will get? All roses? Depression? Food shortages?

Personally, something seems way off. I'm afraid of what's coming this year. I have no idea what it will be; maybe nothing. Still seems like things are on pretty shaky ground right now.

I am concerned about the "return" pricing of consumer goods as well...will we ever see prices pre-2020 / Covid / Biden?

Paid $6.49 for a pack of 6 fucking hotdogs last week...

$4.39 gas here in OKC. And Oklahoma is usually the cheapest state in terms of gas prices.

Saw a headline the other day that 1) grocery prices will double this coming fall; and 2) the price for eggs will be around $12!!!

Feels like a powder keg is going to explode and all hell breaks loose somehow. Sadly we won't know when and/or where that "keg" will explode.

 

[CowboyNV]

All you economists out there, how bad do you think it will get? All roses? Depression? Food shortages?

Personally, something seems way off. I'm afraid of what's coming this year. I have no idea what it will be; maybe nothing. Still seems like things are on pretty shaky ground right now.

We've been here before. When Reagan was president in 1981 inflation rates were higher than they are right now, mortgage interest rates averaged over 16.5%, and the Savings and Loan industry started to go under after the Federal Reserve raised the discount rate that it charged its member banks from 9.5 percent to 12 percent in an effort to reduce inflation (Reagan's deregulation of banks was a contributing factor as well). People were freaking out trying to get their money out before they closed the doors...it was an absolute cluster fuck. So, while it is bad now, it can get a hell of a lot worse. The good news is we survived it back then and we will survive it again, in spite of shit leadership by both parties.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

All you economists out there, how bad do you think it will get? All roses? Depression? Food shortages?

Personally, something seems way off. I'm afraid of what's coming this year. I have no idea what it will be; maybe nothing. Still seems like things are on pretty shaky ground right now.

We've been here before. When Reagan was president in 1981 inflation rates were higher than they are right now, mortgage interest rates averaged over 16.5%, and the Savings and Loan industry started to go under after the Federal Reserve raised the discount rate that it charged its member banks from 9.5 percent to 12 percent in an effort to reduce inflation (Reagan's deregulation of banks was a contributing factor as well). People were freaking out trying to get their money out before they closed the doors...it was an absolute cluster [#]f##k. So, while it is bad now, it can get a hell of a lot worse. The good news is we survived it back then and we will survive it again, in spite of Sh#t leadership by both parties.

There are some big differences. We are a descending superpower now. There is a real risk of the dollar no longer being the world standard. We've exploited that luxury and robbed the world far too long. 85%+ of our ports are foreign owned and our manufacturing is now overseas. Our supply chains are more global, consolidated, and fragile. The fed is trying quantitative tightening which has never been done in the history of the world.

They lost control of this bitch

 

[LanderPoke]

Yay!!!! I'm sure glad they shut down the world's economy for what amounted to less than the flu for the extreme majority of people. TOTALY worth it.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

I've never seen a more incompetent sob when it comes to many things especially energy.

His approach to energy will make all of this much worse.

 

[WestWYOPoke]

Yay!!!! I'm sure glad they shut down the world's economy for what amounted to less than the flu for the extreme majority of people. TOTALY worth it.

False

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Yay!!!! I'm sure glad they shut down the world's economy for what amounted to less than the flu for the extreme majority of people. TOTALY worth it.

False

At minimum it is abundantly clear wrecking the economy and other liberal attempts at mitigation were useless including the Trump vaccine. Before you start, give the epidemiological data sufficient time. Just like the first shot which required a booster and now another booster; it's because they don't work past a month or so.

The COVID response is the biggest blunder in US history. The Biden presidency is a close second. The latter will jump the former when he boldly leads us into the worst depression in US history while overseeing the removal of the dollar as the world's currency

 

[LanderPoke]

Yay!!!! I'm sure glad they shut down the world's economy for what amounted to less than the flu for the extreme majority of people. TOTALY worth it.

False

For everyone under about 80 yes.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

It's different this time. Simplistic read but good points. We're screwed.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/2022/06/18/check-coming-due-americas-unlimited-government/7665634001/

 

[LanderPoke]

It's different this time. Simplistic read but good points. We're screwed.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/2022/06/18/check-coming-due-americas-unlimited-government/7665634001/

Paywall ed!

 

[laxwyo]

I've listened to Peter Schiff talk about economics quite a bit and he's always said that we're going to pay the piper and it looks like it's finally here. You can't print money the way we have and not have consequences. The Fed doesn't want to cure inflation this time because inflation is the only way we can service the debt we have. The problem is that wages won't increase fast enough and everyone will be much much poorer. The government needs to get it's spending under control.

“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy...”
― Alexander Fraser Tytler

 

[ragtimejoe1]

It's different this time. Simplistic read but good points. We're screwed.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/2022/06/18/check-coming-due-americas-unlimited-government/7665634001/

Paywall ed!

Hmm, free for me. Gist: US government originally borrowing from Social Security and paying Social Security back + interest. Now Social Security doesn't have enough cash to support itself or the government's borrowing problem.

Government solved this by borrowing from the Fed. Main difference is Social Security didn't create more cash. It was taken from taxpayers, put in the account, then borrowed. The only way they could borrow from the Fed is create more cash out of thin air. This results in inflation.

We don't have enough money to cover our current spending much less our future obligations. Shit is about to hit the fan.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

I've listened to Peter Schiff talk about economics quite a bit and he's always said that we're going to pay the piper and it looks like it's finally here. You can't print money the way we have and not have consequences. The Fed doesn't want to cure inflation this time because inflation is the only way we can service the debt we have. The problem is that wages won't increase fast enough and everyone will be much much poorer. The government needs to get it's spending under control.

“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy...”
― Alexander Fraser Tytler

This is it. People need to quit relying on the government and the government needs to reprioritize to the basic fundamentals it was intended for. I hope we have the intestinal fortitude to do what needs to be done.

 

[LanderPoke]

It's different this time. Simplistic read but good points. We're screwed.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/2022/06/18/check-coming-due-americas-unlimited-government/7665634001/

Paywall ed!

Hmm, free for me. Gist: US government originally borrowing from Social Security and paying Social Security back + interest. Now Social Security doesn't have enough cash to support itself or the government's borrowing problem.

Government solved this by borrowing from the Fed. Main difference is Social Security didn't create more cash. It was taken from taxpayers, put in the account, then borrowed. The only way they could borrow from the Fed is create more cash out of thin air. This results in inflation.

We don't have enough money to cover our current spending much less our future obligations. Sh#t is about to hit the fan.

Tried it today and now I can read it, weird!

My Lord, we have committed to 100 trillion of obligations (and growing) while only bringing in 4 trillion per year. We're sooooo screwed

 

[Wyokie]

I've listened to Peter Schiff talk about economics quite a bit and he's always said that we're going to pay the piper and it looks like it's finally here. You can't print money the way we have and not have consequences. The Fed doesn't want to cure inflation this time because inflation is the only way we can service the debt we have. The problem is that wages won't increase fast enough and everyone will be much much poorer. The government needs to get it's spending under control.

“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy...”
― Alexander Fraser Tytler

This is it. People need to quit relying on the government and the government needs to reprioritize to the basic fundamentals it was intended for. I hope we have the intestinal fortitude to do what needs to be done.

What about the elderly and the physically disabled like myself? I get a monthly check (direct deposit) from the Feds to allow me to be independent enough...O.K. barely enough...financially.

 

[LanderPoke]

I've listened to Peter Schiff talk about economics quite a bit and he's always said that we're going to pay the piper and it looks like it's finally here. You can't print money the way we have and not have consequences. The Fed doesn't want to cure inflation this time because inflation is the only way we can service the debt we have. The problem is that wages won't increase fast enough and everyone will be much much poorer. The government needs to get it's spending under control.

“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy...”
― Alexander Fraser Tytler

This is it. People need to quit relying on the government and the government needs to reprioritize to the basic fundamentals it was intended for. I hope we have the intestinal fortitude to do what needs to be done.

What about the elderly and the physically disabled like myself? I get a monthly check (direct deposit) from the Feds to allow me to be independent enough...O.K. barely enough...financially.

Perhaps we can't subsidize the world's freedom and security anymore. I'd rather give my tax dollars to someone like you, my brother, than to corrupt governments in eastern europe, the military industrial complex, lobbyists, corrupt assholes in one of the endless government agencies or other political potlickers.

 

[LanderPoke]

Sorry, I'm rambling today, but like, for shit's sake, how much does the average person draw a month from social security? $1,600? How much is the average SS deduction on a person's wages, employer and employee? like $500-$600. Doesn't take a genius to see this is not sustainable, especially with an ageing population and a workforce participation rate of like 60% and declining.