2 years is enough

[BeaverPoke]

2 seasons is enough.

After 2 seasons at Wyoming, head coaches typically show what they will do throughout the rest of their time at Wyoming- whether it is good or bad.

I went through a lot of Wyoming football records throughout the last 68 years.
I looked at all 16 coaches from the 1947 season which was Bowden Wyatt's first at Wyoming through Dave Christensen's final season in 2013.

I looked at the average amount of wins per season for the first 2 years, and compared that to the average amount of wins throughout their duration in Laramie.

Here are the results:

COACH---1st 2 seasons average---average at UW

Christensen---5---5.4
Glenn---5.5---5
Koenning---1.5---1.67
Dimel---7.5---7.33
Tiller---4.5---6.5
Roach---10.5---8.75
*Erickson---6---6
Kincaid---6.5---5.8
*Dye---6---6
Lewis---4.5---4.33
**Akers---5---5
Shurmur---4.5---4.75
Eaton---5.5---6.33
Devaney---6---7
Dickens---5.5---7.25
Wyatt---4---6.5

*only coached for 1 season
**only coached for 2 seasons

Of the 16 coaches listed above, 3 were here for either 1 or 2 seasons, but only 4 coaches left Laramie with a wins-per-season average where the difference, was greater than 1 compared to the first 2 seasons at Wyo.

Of those 4 coaches (Wyatt, Dickens, Roach, Tiller), 3 left with an improvement compared to their first 2 years, and Roach's mark showed regression by the time he left compared to the first 2 years.
And of the 3 who improved, 2 of them were before 1957.

Meaning there is only 1 coach out of 13 possible candidates that showed improvement by more than 1 game, when looking at their average-wins-per-season VS their first two years average-wins-per-season.

Now moving to Bohl.
4 wins in 2014
2 wins in 2015

First 2 years average of 3 wins per season.
Will Bohl stay true to the theory and leave Wyoming with an average of between 2 and 4 wins?
Or will he be like Tiller and improve on it?
I doubt Bohl leaves Wyoming with an average of under 2 per season.

Thoughts?

 

[BeaverPoke]

It should be noted that Devaney improved 1 exactly.
And Eaton was well on pace, until a final season in which he went 1-9.

 

[JimmyDimes]

Please see the attached and how Craig Bohl's NDSU team did in year two of moving up a division.

I'll save my comments.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_Bohl" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[ragtimejoe1]

While stomping out some ignorance, another thread, it was very obvious the first 4 years were critical. Almost all highly successful coaches at the G5 ranks who had to build a program attained 7+ win season within 4 years. Obviously, some coaches attained that and then flamed out, but there were very few highly successful coaches that took over 4 years.

 

[BeaverPoke]

Please see the attached and how Craig Bohl's NDSU team did in year two of moving up a division.

I'll save my comments.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_Bohl" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So because Bohl struggled in year 2, you are certain he can succeed here?
Or at least do something that only 1 Wyoming coach since the mid-1900s has done?

 

[bladerunnr]

Beaverpoke,

I'm in complete agreement. I've seen nothing from this team in 2 years that suggests that Bohl was capable of making the jump to D1 football.
I do enjoy all the talk on this board about "wait until so and so gets here", or "look at the mess he inherited". But my favorite is "wait till they put some weight on". It's all horseshit, of course. It reminds me of all the excitement during the heath era over on the bastketball board when the 7 footer from Auburn, Boubacar Sylla, was transferring here. You'd have thought Bill Walton was about to arrive, not a guy who averaged 1 point a game. Josh Allen is going to be our savior. Nevermind he couldn't beat out Coffman at the start of the season. That 1 td drive before he got hurt is all anyone needs to see to proclaim him the next Tom Brady. Hilarious.

So Bohl gets a pass for at least a few more seasons. Talk about a dream job. Where can I go to triple my salary and have basically no expectations for 3-4 years?

 

[Asmodeanreborn]

Wait, your "scientific" method of evaluation was to average two seasons?

I thought you were a grad student... :-/

And yeah, that probably sounds harsh, but seriously?

 

[MrTitleist]

I do enjoy all the talk on this board about "wait until so and so gets here", or "look at the mess he inherited". But my favorite is "wait till they put some weight on". It's all horseshit, of course.

You don't think Granderson could have benefited from having a redshirt year this year?

 

[BeaverPoke]

Wait, your "scientific" method of evaluation was to average two seasons?

I thought you were a grad student... :-/

And yeah, that probably sounds harsh, but seriously?

Show me how I'm wrong. Or just talk shit. Doesn't matter to me.
The numbers don't lie.
And 2 seasons because that's all Bohl has done and most Wyo coaches don't make it much longer.

 

[BackHarlowRoad]

Pointless thread.

He's not getting fired this year, regardless what numbers say.

 

[Asmodeanreborn]

Wait, your "scientific" method of evaluation was to average two seasons?

I thought you were a grad student... :-/

And yeah, that probably sounds harsh, but seriously?

Show me how I'm wrong. Or just talk shit. Doesn't matter to me.
The numbers don't lie.
And 2 seasons because that's all Bohl has done and most Wyo coaches don't make it much longer.

How it's wrong? How about the fact that your arbitrary data point of 2 years is meaningless unless you back up why you picked that? It's super-easy to lie with statistics that way. It looks like you have some kind of statistical relationship here, until you realize that with 11-12 games in a season and no Wyoming coach selected averaged over 8.75 wins over a full career, something like Tiller's 4.5 vs 6.5 averages is a pretty enormous differential - to the point where there is no real relationship, even (especially as those first two seasons also hurt the overall average quite a bit).

How many of those coaches completely changed the type of football the teams played and had to deal with having the wrong personnel? Have you looked at other schools than just Wyoming to get data points on their coaches?

 

[Wyovanian]

Wait, your "scientific" method of evaluation was to average two seasons?

I thought you were a grad student... :-/

And yeah, that probably sounds harsh, but seriously?

Show me how I'm wrong. Or just talk shit. Doesn't matter to me.
The numbers don't lie.
And 2 seasons because that's all Bohl has done and most Wyo coaches don't make it much longer.

How it's wrong? How about the fact that your arbitrary data point of 2 years is meaningless unless you back up why you picked that? It's super-easy to lie with statistics that way. It looks like you have some kind of statistical relationship here, until you realize that with 11-12 games in a season and no Wyoming coach selected averaged over 8.75 wins over a full career, something like Tiller's 4.5 vs 6.5 averages is a pretty enormous differential - to the point where there is no real relationship, even (especially as those first two seasons also hurt the overall average quite a bit).

How many of those coaches completely changed the type of football the teams played and had to deal with having the wrong personnel? Have you looked at other schools than just Wyoming to get data points on their coaches?

Whew! For a moment there, I thought I was going to have to consider B-Poke for AD. Of course, it was quite literally a moment, just a nanosecond, about the time it takes for me to actually think...

 

[Yabadabadoo]

Wait, your "scientific" method of evaluation was to average two seasons?

I thought you were a grad student... :-/

And yeah, that probably sounds harsh, but seriously?

Show me how I'm wrong. Or just talk shit. Doesn't matter to me.
The numbers don't lie.
And 2 seasons because that's all Bohl has done and most Wyo coaches don't make it much longer.

How it's wrong? How about the fact that your arbitrary data point of 2 years is meaningless unless you back up why you picked that? It's super-easy to lie with statistics that way. It looks like you have some kind of statistical relationship here, until you realize that with 11-12 games in a season and no Wyoming coach selected averaged over 8.75 wins over a full career, something like Tiller's 4.5 vs 6.5 averages is a pretty enormous differential - to the point where there is no real relationship, even (especially as those first two seasons also hurt the overall average quite a bit).

How many of those coaches completely changed the type of football the teams played and had to deal with having the wrong personnel? Have you looked at other schools than just Wyoming to get data points on their coaches?

Whew! For a moment there, I thought I was going to have to consider B-Poke for AD. Of course, it was quite literally a moment, just a nanosecond, about the time it takes for me to actually think...

LOL!

At the very least Wyovanian is one of the most entertaining scribes on our board -- and at worst -- he's one of the most insightful and well-adjusted, realistic, and knowledgeable contributors on the site.

I agree that this thread is useless and pointless -- as no 2 situations are identical -- and thus no extraction of information and or records should confluence with the current Craig Bohl regime.

I feel very positive and excited about the future of the program, I have confidence it is moving in the right direction, I love the recruiting results of the staff, and in subtle ways I can smell a culture change beginning to metastasize.

Josh Allen wasn't going to beat out Cam Coffman -- no matter what. Bohl was going to go with CC for this season for better or worse. Allen is a very high ceiling quarterback who now possesses 3 years of eligibility, and the incoming freshman next season (Chandler Garrett) will most likely redshirt and learn before hopefully taking the baton from Allen.

I look forward to getting better next season, and I believe we will begin to see the very first signs of tangible on-field progress from the Pokes. I'll caution many here well in advance of the 2016 season, that 'progress' may not equal as many victories as some are hoping for in 16'. Next season I'll look for a few more wins, in addition to a higher compete level overall on the squad, and overall maturation and growth as 'the process' of building this program continues with no short cuts.

Complete validation of an on-going process in Laramie will have nothing to do with whether or not they gain Bowl eligibility next season -- rather -- that validation will come in the form of a team that is beginning to pass the eye test and consistently looks the part on a week in and week out basis.

The Pokes could win 4-5 games in 2016...and yet have themselves a more than encouraging season -- as the building blocks are put in place one after another on our way to bigger and better things in 17, 18, 19, etc.

For a comparison of progress and understanding 'the process' of building a program and the start of fruit bearing I suggest some people take a look at what Bob Davie has done in the 4 years he's been in Albuquerque with New Mexico. That's inspiring - and a nice model to emulate eventually.

No shortcuts.

No pain.

No gain.

 

[laxwyo]

I'm a CB guy until I'm not

DC had wild swings in his record because the MW isn't very good anymore. I can see CB having those swings as well. It's not out of the realm of possibility that we win 6 games with marginal improvement just to fall back. With such a young team to start, I would hope that we don't have those swings but more of a linear progression

 

[BackHarlowRoad]

I'm an Asmodeanreborn guy now after that response.

 

[LanderPoke]

Wait, your "scientific" method of evaluation was to average two seasons?

I thought you were a grad student... :-/

And yeah, that probably sounds harsh, but seriously?

Show me how I'm wrong. Or just talk shit. Doesn't matter to me.
The numbers don't lie.
And 2 seasons because that's all Bohl has done and most Wyo coaches don't make it much longer.

How it's wrong? How about the fact that your arbitrary data point of 2 years is meaningless unless you back up why you picked that? It's super-easy to lie with statistics that way. It looks like you have some kind of statistical relationship here, until you realize that with 11-12 games in a season and no Wyoming coach selected averaged over 8.75 wins over a full career, something like Tiller's 4.5 vs 6.5 averages is a pretty enormous differential - to the point where there is no real relationship, even (especially as those first two seasons also hurt the overall average quite a bit).

How many of those coaches completely changed the type of football the teams played and had to deal with having the wrong personnel? Have you looked at other schools than just Wyoming to get data points on their coaches?

Whew! For a moment there, I thought I was going to have to consider B-Poke for AD. Of course, it was quite literally a moment, just a nanosecond, about the time it takes for me to actually think...

LOL!

At the very least Wyovanian is one of the most entertaining scribes on our board -- and at worst -- he's one of the most insightful and well-adjusted, realistic, and knowledgeable contributors on the site.

I agree that this thread is useless and pointless -- as no 2 situations are identical -- and thus no extraction of information and or records should confluence with the current Craig Bohl regime.

I feel very positive and excited about the future of the program, I have confidence it is moving in the right direction, I love the recruiting results of the staff, and in subtle ways I can smell a culture change beginning to metastasize.

Josh Allen wasn't going to beat out Cam Coffman -- no matter what. Bohl was going to go with CC for this season for better or worse. Allen is a very high ceiling quarterback who now possesses 3 years of eligibility, and the incoming freshman next season (Chandler Garrett) will most likely redshirt and learn before hopefully taking the baton from Allen.

I look forward to getting better next season, and I believe we will begin to see the very first signs of tangible on-field progress from the Pokes. I'll caution many here well in advance of the 2016 season, that 'progress' may not equal as many victories as some are hoping for in 16'. Next season I'll look for a few more wins, in addition to a higher compete level overall on the squad, and overall maturation and growth as 'the process' of building this program continues with no short cuts.

Complete validation of an on-going process in Laramie will have nothing to do with whether or not they gain Bowl eligibility next season -- rather -- that validation will come in the form of a team that is beginning to pass the eye test and consistently looks the part on a week in and week out basis.

The Pokes could win 4-5 games in 2016...and yet have themselves a more than encouraging season -- as the building blocks are put in place one after another on our way to bigger and better things in 17, 18, 19, etc.

For a comparison of progress and understanding 'the process' of building a program and the start of fruit bearing I suggest some people take a look at what Bob Davie has done in the 4 years he's been in Albuquerque with New Mexico. That's inspiring - and a nice model to emulate eventually.

No shortcuts.

No pain.

No gain.

+1, Dino. Couldn't have said it better

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Show me how I'm wrong.

Look through this list (page 2-3). Some had success instantly and some struggled for up to 3 years. However, all had 7 wins within 4 years.

2 years isn't enough. Pick through some of the legendary coaches and you'll definitely find a mixed bag the first 2 years. Keep in mind as best as we could, these were limited to coaches that "had to build a program". It certainly is hard to define that as is subsequent success. The criteria could be debated but overall, I think the trend is pretty clear. 4 years to get to 7+ wins in a season and then obviously must sustain that success (some coaches fail to sustain success).

http://www.wyonation.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=13307&start=30" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Cornpoke]

We are a nation of instant gratification. I'd prefer a long term build over short term success and I believe Bohl is doing that. If he doesn't, a lot of us will be eating crow...

 

[ragtimejoe1]

We are a nation of instant gratification. I'd prefer a long term build over short term success and I believe Bohl is doing that. If he doesn't, a lot of us will be eating crow...

Short-term success and long-term success and not mutually exclusive.

I prefer short-term success with sustained long-term success. Obviously that ship has sailed, but it is possible.

 

[LanderPoke]

Bohl screwed up in the short-term by not getting Thompson to stay, not recruiting better in his initial class, not recruiting more JCs, running off a lot of veteran players, but this in no way compromises his long-term success.