We have a pretty solid chance at the two seed.

[seattlecowboy]

If we won out and won the MWC tourney I would prefer a an 11 or 12 seed though. Being a 7,8,9,10 seed means if you win you have to play the #1 or #2 seed in the 2nd round. As an 11 or 12 we would get to play a 3 or 4 which would be better.

 

[BeaverPoke]

Wyoming sits at 21 wins right now. With at least five games left (MW tourney + 4 regular season games), this team has a good shot to reach 25 wins. Again, NEVER has a MW team reached 25 or more wins and been excluded from the NCAA tourney. If that happens, it will be a first and the biggest wake-up call to Shyatt to quit playing Casper College in November ever. I hope that is not the case.

24 wins? I'm not confident on Selection Sunday. 25? I feel like there is a chance, but not guaranteeing anything. 26? We've got a pretty good chance, being left out would be a mild surprise. 27? This team should be dancing, and if they're not you will hear the anger coming out of Laramie from 100 miles away. The only time a 27-win team misses the dance is if they're in an extremely obscure conference nobody ever hears about.

Do the math...this team can earn their way. 21 wins right now, 5 chances at the very least. If they can't hit 25 or even 26 wins, they deserve to go elsewhere.

21 + 4 regular season games + 2 MWC Tourney games =27

A team with 27 wins, #2 seed in the MWC that is 3-0 (likely 4-0 by then) against CSU and Boise in the MWC Championship should NOT have to win the final fucking game to get in. Fucking 27-7 should be a 10 seed, not an NIT team.
What if we win out? Where does our 28-6 with a 9 game win streak and a MWC-Tourney Championship get us?

If that were to happen we would probably get a 10 seed at best.

So, a 7-10 matchup, then a 2-10 matchup against the Utes in Portland?

 

[WYCowboy]

All I will say is that there is more (a lot more) that goes into setting up a schedule than just trying to get a high rated SOS.

 

[seattlecowboy]

Wyoming sits at 21 wins right now. With at least five games left (MW tourney + 4 regular season games), this team has a good shot to reach 25 wins. Again, NEVER has a MW team reached 25 or more wins and been excluded from the NCAA tourney. If that happens, it will be a first and the biggest wake-up call to Shyatt to quit playing Casper College in November ever. I hope that is not the case.

24 wins? I'm not confident on Selection Sunday. 25? I feel like there is a chance, but not guaranteeing anything. 26? We've got a pretty good chance, being left out would be a mild surprise. 27? This team should be dancing, and if they're not you will hear the anger coming out of Laramie from 100 miles away. The only time a 27-win team misses the dance is if they're in an extremely obscure conference nobody ever hears about.

Do the math...this team can earn their way. 21 wins right now, 5 chances at the very least. If they can't hit 25 or even 26 wins, they deserve to go elsewhere.

21 + 4 regular season games + 2 MWC Tourney games =27

A team with 27 wins, #2 seed in the MWC that is 3-0 (likely 4-0 by then) against CSU and Boise in the MWC Championship should NOT have to win the final fucking game to get in. Fucking 27-7 should be a 10 seed, not an NIT team.
What if we win out? Where does our 28-6 with a 9 game win streak and a MWC-Tourney Championship get us?

If that were to happen we would probably get a 10 seed at best.

So, a 7-10 matchup, then a 2-10 matchup against the Utes in Portland?

Possibly but right now Utah is a projected 3 seed. #2 seeds right now are Wisconsin, Kansas, Arizona and Villanova.

 

[BeaverPoke]

Wyoming sits at 21 wins right now. With at least five games left (MW tourney + 4 regular season games), this team has a good shot to reach 25 wins. Again, NEVER has a MW team reached 25 or more wins and been excluded from the NCAA tourney. If that happens, it will be a first and the biggest wake-up call to Shyatt to quit playing Casper College in November ever. I hope that is not the case.

24 wins? I'm not confident on Selection Sunday. 25? I feel like there is a chance, but not guaranteeing anything. 26? We've got a pretty good chance, being left out would be a mild surprise. 27? This team should be dancing, and if they're not you will hear the anger coming out of Laramie from 100 miles away. The only time a 27-win team misses the dance is if they're in an extremely obscure conference nobody ever hears about.

Do the math...this team can earn their way. 21 wins right now, 5 chances at the very least. If they can't hit 25 or even 26 wins, they deserve to go elsewhere.

21 + 4 regular season games + 2 MWC Tourney games =27

A team with 27 wins, #2 seed in the MWC that is 3-0 (likely 4-0 by then) against CSU and Boise in the MWC Championship should NOT have to win the final fucking game to get in. Fucking 27-7 should be a 10 seed, not an NIT team.
What if we win out? Where does our 28-6 with a 9 game win streak and a MWC-Tourney Championship get us?

If that were to happen we would probably get a 10 seed at best.

So, a 7-10 matchup, then a 2-10 matchup against the Utes in Portland?

Possibly but right now Utah is a projected 3 seed. #2 seeds right now are Wisconsin, Kansas, Arizona and Villanova.

No way they put Zona and Utah in the same bracket right?
I would love to play the Utes for a chance to go the Sweet 16, whether they are a 1 or a 2 or 3 or even 4 seed.

 

[seattlecowboy]

Wyoming sits at 21 wins right now. With at least five games left (MW tourney + 4 regular season games), this team has a good shot to reach 25 wins. Again, NEVER has a MW team reached 25 or more wins and been excluded from the NCAA tourney. If that happens, it will be a first and the biggest wake-up call to Shyatt to quit playing Casper College in November ever. I hope that is not the case.

24 wins? I'm not confident on Selection Sunday. 25? I feel like there is a chance, but not guaranteeing anything. 26? We've got a pretty good chance, being left out would be a mild surprise. 27? This team should be dancing, and if they're not you will hear the anger coming out of Laramie from 100 miles away. The only time a 27-win team misses the dance is if they're in an extremely obscure conference nobody ever hears about.

Do the math...this team can earn their way. 21 wins right now, 5 chances at the very least. If they can't hit 25 or even 26 wins, they deserve to go elsewhere.

21 + 4 regular season games + 2 MWC Tourney games =27

A team with 27 wins, #2 seed in the MWC that is 3-0 (likely 4-0 by then) against CSU and Boise in the MWC Championship should NOT have to win the final fucking game to get in. Fucking 27-7 should be a 10 seed, not an NIT team.
What if we win out? Where does our 28-6 with a 9 game win streak and a MWC-Tourney Championship get us?

If that were to happen we would probably get a 10 seed at best.

So, a 7-10 matchup, then a 2-10 matchup against the Utes in Portland?

Possibly but right now Utah is a projected 3 seed. #2 seeds right now are Wisconsin, Kansas, Arizona and Villanova.

No way they put Zona and Utah in the same bracket right?
I would love to play the Utes for a chance to go the Sweet 16, whether they are a 1 or a 2 or 3 or even 4 seed.

No they won't be in the same bracket. Right now they have Arizona in the West bracket and Utah in the South. I think Utah is a sleeper final four team . I am not sure I would want to play them. Doesn't matter though any team you play in the NCAA tournament is tough so we will have a tough game.

 

[POKE FAN]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mikevorel/status/568152143477080064[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mikevorel/status/568152697460822016[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mikevorel/status/568152856861097984[/tweet]

Recent committee member Jamie Zaninovich says the RPI is used to organize batches of teams. He considers it "way overvalued on an absolute basis."

Forget what a couple of really bad OOC teams can do to your RPI. What about bad conference teams you cannot escape in the scheduling process? Grammer has documented this on Twitter numerous times. SJSU is the subject (current RPI =337). Boise beats SJSU by 50 and drops 12 spots in the RPI. UNM beats the Spartans by 26 and drops 17 spots in RPI. SDSU and UNM were fortunate to play SJSU only once this season.

 

[seattlecowboy]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mikevorel/status/568152143477080064[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mikevorel/status/568152697460822016[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mikevorel/status/568152856861097984[/tweet]

Recent committee member Jamie Zaninovich says the RPI is used to organize batches of teams. He considers it "way overvalued on an absolute basis."

Forget what a couple of really bad OOC teams can do to your RPI. What about bad conference teams you cannot escape in the scheduling process? Grammer has documented this on Twitter numerous times. SJSU is the subject (current RPI =337). Boise beats SJSU by 50 and drops 12 spots in the RPI. UNM beats the Spartans by 26 and drops 17 spots in RPI. SDSU and UNM were fortunate to play SJSU only once this season.

Here is an article on that Air Force team. I remember them they were good. Thing that stuck out from the article was that Air Force played the 236th ranked SOS which I believe was their OOC schedule ranking because on another site it said their overall schedule with conference games finished at 149 that year. They also had 16 wins against teams that were rated 200 or lower. After looking at their schedule they did have wins @California that year who was about the same as they are this year record wise and also at Wisconsin-MIlwaukee who was a good team.

They also won the MWC regular season title. So while their SOS wasn't the best they did have a couple of things we don't have and that is a couple of road wins against decent competition OOC and also winning the regular season title.

Anyways if we can win out until the conference tournament championship we will at least have a chance.

One other note, they also lost in the first round of the conference tournament to a bad CSU team.

http://amarillo.com/stories/2004/03/16/col_airforce.shtml

 

[stymeman]

if we get in regardless how and have a 10-13 seed, we are dangerous from there and history shows...I'm ok with that, I'm just leary of that dreaded 8-9 seed if we ever got that lucky, cuz that means you got a 99.9% chance of facing that #1 in that bracket, I don't care for that, the 10-13 is wonderful placing

 

[Adv8RU12]

Vorel:" Wyoming's current RPI, 78, is lower than any Mountain West team's RPI that previously received an at-large bid to the NCAA tourney"

So! Just win the damn tournament! Solves that damn problem! You listening Larry?

 

[stymeman]

Vorel:" Wyoming's current RPI, 78, is lower than any Mountain West team's RPI that previously received an at-large bid to the NCAA tourney"

So! Just win the damn tournament! Solves that damn problem! You listening Larry?

Well put!!!! Let's get it done, afterall we're sure due to shock the basketball world, I'm ready for the ride!!!!!

 

[Cowboy Junky]

CSU goes to 10-5 with a remaining schedule of:

AFA
SJSU
@ Nevada
@ USU

 

[seattlecowboy]

CSU goes to 10-5 with a remaining schedule of:

AFA
SJSU
@ Nevada
@ USU

They are 9-5 actually but yeah they should win their next 3 games most likely and then will have a real tough one at Utah St.

 

[Cowboy Junky]

CSU goes to 10-5 with a remaining schedule of:

AFA
SJSU
@ Nevada
@ USU

They are 9-5 actually but yeah they should win their next 3 games most likely and then will have a real tough one at Utah St.

Thanks. I was only concerned about the 5 part. I guess the front number is significant as well.

 

[Cowboy Junky]

Boise wins in Vegas to stay tied with Wyoming, but behind on the tie break.

 

[J-Rod]

Boise should beat Nevada, New Mexico, Fresno at home....SJSU on the road, but lose at SDSU. Pokes are tied with them in the loss column, so probably have a game or two to spare. Winning in Vegas and Albuquerque won't be easy though. Lose both, and I doubt Wyoming finishes in the Top 3.

 

[Cowboy Junky]

Boise should beat Nevada, New Mexico, Fresno at home....SJSU on the road, but lose at SDSU. Pokes are tied with them in the loss column, so probably have a game or two to spare. Winning in Vegas and Albuquerque won't be easy though. Lose both, and I doubt Wyoming finishes in the Top 3.

CSU is two games back of us with the tie break. We have to lose two games and them finish without a loss for them to pass us. They still have a couple of tough road games to make it through.

I'm fairly certain that we'll at least be the three unless we totally tank.

Boise has five more games. If they lose at SDSU we can lose one more. We'll see who plays better down the stretch.

 

[NowherePoke]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mikevorel/status/568152143477080064[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mikevorel/status/568152697460822016[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mikevorel/status/568152856861097984[/tweet]

Recent committee member Jamie Zaninovich says the RPI is used to organize batches of teams. He considers it "way overvalued on an absolute basis."

Forget what a couple of really bad OOC teams can do to your RPI. What about bad conference teams you cannot escape in the scheduling process? Grammer has documented this on Twitter numerous times. SJSU is the subject (current RPI =337). Boise beats SJSU by 50 and drops 12 spots in the RPI. UNM beats the Spartans by 26 and drops 17 spots in RPI. SDSU and UNM were fortunate to play SJSU only once this season.

SJSU is going to cost the league at least one bid, maybe more. There should never be a team that bad in this type of conference. Everybody has a bad team now and then, but this level of futility is really unprecedented for a MWC team. They went 0-10 in OOC play against a pretty weak schedule. Let's look back at some of the worst MWC teams prior to adding SJSU. Keep in mind, the most important factor in the RPI is opponents winning percentage. That means that the most important impact that each team has on the conference RPI is their OOC record, even if it is against a weak schedule (opponents SOS is 25%, so it is a factor also, just not as big).

2012-13:

Nevada: 3-13 MWC, 9-5 OOC

2011-12:

Boise State: 3-11 MWC, 10-5 OOC

2010-11:

TCU: 1-15 MWC, 9-5 OOC

2009-10:

AFA: 1-15 MWC, 8-5 OOC

2008-09:

AFA: 0-16 MWC, 9-4 OOC

2007-08:

CSU: 0-16 MWC, 6-7 OOC

2006-07:

TCU: 4-12 MWC, 8-4 OOC

2005-06:

TCU: 2-14, 4-10 OOC

2004-05:

BYU: 3-11 MWC, 5-9 OOC

2003-04:

WYO: 4-10 MWC, 7-6 OOC

2002-03:

AFA: 3-11 MWC, 9-4 OOC

2001-02:

AFA: 3-11 MWC, 6-6 OOC

2000-01:

AFA: 3-11 MWC, 5-8 OOC

1999-00:

SDSU: 0-14 MWC, 5-9 OOC



Also, up until the last couple of years there were zero or 1 D2 games in those records while many teams play 2 every year now.

So, before SJSU the worst OOC performance was TCU who went 4-9 against D1 opponents in 05-06 (yes, they lost to their D2 opponent, Tarleton St.). The total OOC record for the last place team was 101-87. Even assuming one D2 win per year (which wasn't necessarily the case), that is still a .500 OOC record.

Now, let's look at the impact of SJSU using the Pokes as an example:

1. Current Forecast SOS = .4863 (187th)

2. Forecast RPI if the Pokes win out the regular season and go into the MWCT at 14-4, 23-6 (D2 wins don't count) = .5685 (approximately 58th in the country)

3. Forecast SOS if SJSU had gone 5-5 OOC instead of 0-10, IOW the average last place MWC performance = .4996 (note, this adjusts our Opponents Winning Percentage from .466 to .486. Our opponents SOS number is forecast to be .5269 originally and will go up as SJSU affects this value as well but I didn't bother to calculate it so I kept it the same here. This actually understates the impact).

4. Forecast RPI for a 23-6 WYO team that played this mythical SJSU team = .5785 (approximately 37th).



As I noted in number 3, the impact would actually be even larger than that since 5 additional SJSU wins would impact our opponents opponents winning percentage which is 25% of the RPI. The impact is muted because it would be 5 games out of a very large sample, but basically if SJSU was as good as a Heath Schroyer coached Wyoming team, the Pokes would have a Top 35 RPI. Now, imagine the impact for BSU and CSU as well on their RPI.

SJSU is costing the MWC at least one bid, probably two. Each NCAA tournament credit is worth approximately $1.6 million over time to the conference. Just food for thought.

Now, that wouldn't impact the basic fact that none of the three bubble type MWC teams (CSU, WYO, BSU) had a quality (Top 50) win in their OOC or the fact that Wyoming's OOC SOS is awful, but if SJSU was merely competent Wyoming would have a Top 40 RPI with two wins over what would ikely be a Top 20 RPI CSU team. Instead of being the 12th rated conference, the MWC would have a conference RPI of approximately .5234 which would put them 9th, ahead of the WCC and behind the AAC. Not great, but more in line with what you would expect from this type of conference in a down year (which it was, even outside of SJSU).

 

[seattlecowboy]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mikevorel/status/568152143477080064[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mikevorel/status/568152697460822016[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mikevorel/status/568152856861097984[/tweet]

Recent committee member Jamie Zaninovich says the RPI is used to organize batches of teams. He considers it "way overvalued on an absolute basis."

Forget what a couple of really bad OOC teams can do to your RPI. What about bad conference teams you cannot escape in the scheduling process? Grammer has documented this on Twitter numerous times. SJSU is the subject (current RPI =337). Boise beats SJSU by 50 and drops 12 spots in the RPI. UNM beats the Spartans by 26 and drops 17 spots in RPI. SDSU and UNM were fortunate to play SJSU only once this season.

SJSU is going to cost the league at least one bid, maybe more. There should never be a team that bad in this type of conference. Everybody has a bad team now and then, but this level of futility is really unprecedented for a MWC team. They went 0-10 in OOC play against a pretty weak schedule. Let's look back at some of the worst MWC teams prior to adding SJSU. Keep in mind, the most important factor in the RPI is opponents winning percentage. That means that the most important impact that each team has on the conference RPI is their OOC record, even if it is against a weak schedule (opponents SOS is 25%, so it is a factor also, just not as big).

2012-13:

Nevada: 3-13 MWC, 9-5 OOC

2011-12:

Boise State: 3-11 MWC, 10-5 OOC

2010-11:

TCU: 1-15 MWC, 9-5 OOC

2009-10:

AFA: 1-15 MWC, 8-5 OOC

2008-09:

AFA: 0-16 MWC, 9-4 OOC

2007-08:

CSU: 0-16 MWC, 6-7 OOC

2006-07:

TCU: 4-12 MWC, 8-4 OOC

2005-06:

TCU: 2-14, 4-10 OOC

2004-05:

BYU: 3-11 MWC, 5-9 OOC

2003-04:

WYO: 4-10 MWC, 7-6 OOC

2002-03:

AFA: 3-11 MWC, 9-4 OOC

2001-02:

AFA: 3-11 MWC, 6-6 OOC

2000-01:

AFA: 3-11 MWC, 5-8 OOC

1999-00:

SDSU: 0-14 MWC, 5-9 OOC



Also, up until the last couple of years there were zero or 1 D2 games in those records while many teams play 2 every year now.

So, before SJSU the worst OOC performance was TCU who went 4-9 against D1 opponents in 05-06 (yes, they lost to their D2 opponent, Tarleton St.). The total OOC record for the last place team was 101-87. Even assuming one D2 win per year (which wasn't necessarily the case), that is still a .500 OOC record.

Now, let's look at the impact of SJSU using the Pokes as an example:

1. Current Forecast SOS = .4863 (187th)

2. Forecast RPI if the Pokes win out the regular season and go into the MWCT at 14-4, 23-6 (D2 wins don't count) = .5685 (approximately 58th in the country)

3. Forecast SOS if SJSU had gone 5-5 OOC instead of 0-10, IOW the average last place MWC performance = .4996 (note, this adjusts our Opponents Winning Percentage from .466 to .486. Our opponents SOS number is forecast to be .5269 originally and will go up as SJSU affects this value as well but I didn't bother to calculate it so I kept it the same here. This actually understates the impact).

4. Forecast RPI for a 23-6 WYO team that played this mythical SJSU team = .5785 (approximately 37th).



As I noted in number 3, the impact would actually be even larger than that since 5 additional SJSU wins would impact our opponents opponents winning percentage which is 25% of the RPI. The impact is muted because it would be 5 games out of a very large sample, but basically if SJSU was as good as a Heath Schroyer coached Wyoming team, the Pokes would have a Top 35 RPI. Now, imagine the impact for BSU and CSU as well on their RPI.

SJSU is costing the MWC at least one bid, probably two. Each NCAA tournament credit is worth approximately $1.6 million over time to the conference. Just food for thought.

Now, that wouldn't impact the basic fact that none of the three bubble type MWC teams (CSU, WYO, BSU) had a quality (Top 50) win in their OOC or the fact that Wyoming's OOC SOS is awful, but if SJSU was merely competent Wyoming would have a Top 40 RPI with two wins over what would ikely be a Top 20 RPI CSU team. Instead of being the 12th rated conference, the MWC would have a conference RPI of approximately .5234 which would put them 9th, ahead of the WCC and behind the AAC. Not great, but more in line with what you would expect from this type of conference in a down year (which it was, even outside of SJSU).

Good research. If only SJSU could have done what they did last year out of conference and we could swap Montana St., Stetson and Florida A&M for just slightly better teams that we would have beat anyways we would be a top 25 RPI team easily.

What could have been. Maybe we will get lucky and still find a way to get into the tournament anyways.

 

[wyopig]

If we win the games we're supposed to win, we'll get into the tournament. I'd say the only game left that we're not "supposed" to win would be a championship game against SDSU. That's definitely a game that we can win, but not one that we're expected to win.

I expect Wyoming to win out and make it to the MWC Championship game. Hopefully they can win it to remove all doubt, but if they happen to lose there, we still have to get in. I don't care how your schedule shook out, if you're a member of the MWC and you get 27 wins in a season, you're going to the NCAA Tournament.