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UW and conference realignment
- Thread starter Itsux2beaewe
- Start date
flyfishwyo
Well-known member
ragtimejoe1 said:
https://saturdayoutwest.com/pac-12/hayes-sources-convinced-big-ten-isnt-finished-raiding-the-pac-12/
It's a foregone conclusion. There is no monetary reason for any of them to stay in the PAC 12. I think the only reason it hasn't happened already is the B1G is holding back hoping to bring in the last 4 teams at less than 100% shares of the TV money. The 4 corner schools are hoping the Big 12 will do something to sweeten the deal before the PAC 12 falls apart.
When those 8 schools are gone, the PAC 12 will be OSU, WSU, SDSU, and SMU. That's not a Power 5 conference anymore. The TV money will be gone. There's a good chance they joing the MWC instead of some MWC schools joining the PAC 12.
Every school left is either the 2nd or 3rd choice in a medium sized market, or the big school in a small market. None of them have an outsized value compared to the others. I'm sure there will be some kind of power play with Boise, SDSU, WSU, OSU, and maybe UNLV, Fresno and/or CSU trying to squeeze a little more than an even share out of a new conference, but they need another 6 to 8 partners to make a real conference. Wyoming will end up as part of that group. We're currently in a 3rd tier conference. We'll end up in a 2nd tier conference.
My prediction although it's probably the most obvious prediction any of you will ever see....
Big Ten: gets Oregon, Washington, Stanford and either California OR Notre Dame (could end up getting both somehow)
Big XII: gets Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah.
MWC: gets SDSU back :roll: and gains Washington State and Oregon State. No idea on what happens to SMU...they return to the AAC...I guess.
Here's a bone for the basketball lovers....I do think that after the MW gets the leftovers from the PAC-12, Gonzaga will join for all sports except football since they don't have that sport. That move would make Hawaii happy since football independence is a suicide mission unless you're a military school like Army.
Big Ten: gets Oregon, Washington, Stanford and either California OR Notre Dame (could end up getting both somehow)
Big XII: gets Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah.
MWC: gets SDSU back :roll: and gains Washington State and Oregon State. No idea on what happens to SMU...they return to the AAC...I guess.
Here's a bone for the basketball lovers....I do think that after the MW gets the leftovers from the PAC-12, Gonzaga will join for all sports except football since they don't have that sport. That move would make Hawaii happy since football independence is a suicide mission unless you're a military school like Army.
flyfishwyo
Well-known member
Wyokie said:
That makes sense. I think TV partners will ultimately decide whether the PAC or the MWC is the surviving conference. SDSU, OSU, and WSU will want it to be the PAC. The surviving MWC conference schools will want it to be the MWC. Oddly enough, Boise could lead that charge because they have a double share of MWC revenue right now and would likely be expected to give it up if they leave.
Wyokie said:
A trained chimp would do the same...Burman has no clout. The poker game of college athletics is coming to an end. Wyoming has a hand with a pair of fours. There is not a great move to make at this point...maybe something could have been done with big time investment during the late '80's and early '90's but it's way past that now and Burman and anybody currently in charge certainly were not around then.
A LOT depends on the structure of the MWC TV contract and how membership changes reopen negotiations.
If CBS can pull the plug on our deal of teams leave, the PAC with only wsu and osu stand a damn good chance of luring teams away. 8 teams in pac at 4.5 mill each is probably less than they are paying us. At the time of invites, the PAC would still be considered P5 so no buyout for MWC teams leaving.
The conference restructure will be under the PAC not the MWC.
If CBS can pull the plug on our deal of teams leave, the PAC with only wsu and osu stand a damn good chance of luring teams away. 8 teams in pac at 4.5 mill each is probably less than they are paying us. At the time of invites, the PAC would still be considered P5 so no buyout for MWC teams leaving.
The conference restructure will be under the PAC not the MWC.
flyfishwyo
Well-known member
ragtimejoe1 said:
The problem with an 8 team conference is inventory. They don't have enough games to broadcast.
flyfishwyo said:
I think it depends on the time slots they are targeting and the remaining content they have. 8 was just an example. I'm sure they can go 8 to 12 pretty easily if needed.
I'm just guessing. I'm definitely not a tv exec but I would bet it's pretty complex.
Does anyone know if our TV contract can be nullified by departures?
OrediggerPoke
Well-known member
It's going to be huge...ragtimejoe1 said:laxwyo said:
Usually these types of tweets are followed by something I mostly don't care about.
They do work because I'll be waiting ,
Mountain West Conference is releasing an app available for both iPhones and Android that will allow you to watch streams within the app and look up conference standings.
evilpoke
Well-known member
Wyoming's path in all this is completely in the dark and we have very little control over anything that happens.
I could see any of these as a possibility:
- Pac-12 (basically, the remaining 4-6 Pac-12 teams expand and we make the cut - and it will be close.)
- Strengthened MWC with Pac-12 teams
- Joining the AAC with CSU and Air Force (or maybe just Air Force)
- Part of an AAC/MWC merger
- Weakened MWC with teams leaving for the Pac-12 (or elsewhere) and MWC fills in with NMSU, UTEP, etc.
- C-USA (the MWC would have disintigrated at this point and we didn't make the cut for the better option. This is the worst-case scenario.)
I'm hoping for one of the four top options, but anything is possible at this point.
San Diego State, Boise, CSU, Air Force, Fresno State and UNLV will be OK to awesome. They have some clout in this.
Hawaii, Nevada, Utah State, New Mexico, San Jose State and Wyoming? errrrr..... who the hell knows.
I could see any of these as a possibility:
- Pac-12 (basically, the remaining 4-6 Pac-12 teams expand and we make the cut - and it will be close.)
- Strengthened MWC with Pac-12 teams
- Joining the AAC with CSU and Air Force (or maybe just Air Force)
- Part of an AAC/MWC merger
- Weakened MWC with teams leaving for the Pac-12 (or elsewhere) and MWC fills in with NMSU, UTEP, etc.
- C-USA (the MWC would have disintigrated at this point and we didn't make the cut for the better option. This is the worst-case scenario.)
I'm hoping for one of the four top options, but anything is possible at this point.
San Diego State, Boise, CSU, Air Force, Fresno State and UNLV will be OK to awesome. They have some clout in this.
Hawaii, Nevada, Utah State, New Mexico, San Jose State and Wyoming? errrrr..... who the hell knows.
