Too early for optimism?

[fromolwyoming]

Only way we go to the NCAA tourney is by winning the conference tourney. Not easy to do no matter how you slice it. Not impossible, but it hasn't been kind to us. NIT though, that is a much more realistic goal, still not easy, but not enirely out of the question.

 

[BeaverPoke]

Only way we go to the NCAA tourney is by winning the conference tourney. Not easy to do no matter how you slice it. Not impossible, but it hasn't been kind to us. NIT though, that is a much more realistic goal, still not easy, but not enirely out of the question.

I think the MWC gets 3.
I know everyone says 2, but I can really see the MWC getting 3.
IF Wyo were to win out, and win 2 games in the MWC Tourney, they would be sitting at 24-10. If 2 of our wins in the MWC Tourney were against someone like NM and SDSU we could make it. (Not realistic with how the seeding will work in the MWCT)
But...I think the Pokes just need to worry about winning each and every game they play in, and getting a really good seed in the MWC. Then take care of business in the Tourney, game by game.

 

[WestWYOPoke]

I don't know Beav, right now Wyo is sitting at 89 in the RPI. Of the 7 remaining games, only 1 is in the RPI Top 100 (Boise @ #60). Meaning even if we win out the regular season, our RPI will not go up drastically. IMO, the only way we go dancing is by taking the MWC tournament. Now if we win out and do well in the tourney, I wouldn't rule out a possible NIT invite.

 

[wyopig]

I don't know Beav, right now Wyo is sitting at 89 in the RPI. Of the 7 remaining games, only 1 is in the RPI Top 100 (Boise @ #60). Meaning even if we win out the regular season, our RPI will not go up drastically. IMO, the only way we go dancing is by taking the MWC tournament. Now if we win out and do well in the tourney, I wouldn't rule out a possible NIT invite.

When we got an at-large bid in 2002, our RPI was somewhere around 70 after we got bounced from the MWC tournament. Still made it in at 21-8.

 

[TheRealUW]

I don't know Beav, right now Wyo is sitting at 89 in the RPI. Of the 7 remaining games, only 1 is in the RPI Top 100 (Boise @ #60). Meaning even if we win out the regular season, our RPI will not go up drastically. IMO, the only way we go dancing is by taking the MWC tournament. Now if we win out and do well in the tourney, I wouldn't rule out a possible NIT invite.

Agreed.

Even if we win out and lose in the MWC Tournament championship game, we would not get an at-large bid in the Big Dance. The only way we make the NCAA Tournament is by winning the MWC Tournament. Period.

The NIT is a long-shot at this point. It is not completely out of the question, but would probably require us ending the season no worse than 6-1 and making it to the MWC championship game. We can all dream, but it's a bit unrealistic to expect an NIT bid this year.

Most likely scenario is that the Pokes end up in the CBI. Unlike past years, the Pokes will be one of the best teams in the tournament this year. Unfortunately, it also coincides with our arena renovation and the Pokes have to play all games on the road. The Cowboys would be a legitimate threat to win the whole thing if they were to host a couple games, but playing all road games will make that road much, much tougher. Personally, I would look forward to seeing what the Pokes would do this year in the CBI. I can't say that about previous years.

 

[BeaverPoke]

Lol long shot for the nit? What are you smoking... cbi talk again...talk about mediocrity and low expectations

 

[BeaverPoke]

In what world is the 3rd place mwc team a long shot for the nit?

 

[BackHarlowRoad]

I don't know Beav, right now Wyo is sitting at 89 in the RPI. Of the 7 remaining games, only 1 is in the RPI Top 100 (Boise @ #60). Meaning even if we win out the regular season, our RPI will not go up drastically. IMO, the only way we go dancing is by taking the MWC tournament. Now if we win out and do well in the tourney, I wouldn't rule out a possible NIT invite.

When we got an at-large bid in 2002, our RPI was somewhere around 70 after we got bounced from the MWC tournament. Still made it in at 21-8.

Yeah but we had finished 1st in our conference 2 years in a row. Recent history plays a factor in making the dance.

 

[BeaverPoke]

I think we need NM and SDSU to win as much as possible so NM keeps chasing SDSU for the MWC title.
Why does that matter? UNLV plays both NM and SDSU.
We are in 4th a full game behind UNLV, but UNLV has the tie breaker so we are essentially 2 games behind UNLV for the 3rd spot.

From here on out, we need UNLV to lose 2 more games than us to get 3rd.

UNLV has to play sdsu, nm, and @ Boise, and @ AFA (who beat UNLV by 7 in Vegas)

 

[TheRealUW]

Lol long shot for the nit? What are you smoking... cbi talk again...talk about mediocrity and low expectations

In what world is the 3rd place mwc team a long shot for the nit?

First of all, finishing in 3rd place will likely take us getting to 12-6 in the conference. That means no more than one loss in our remaining games. Please see my previous post where I said it would take us finishing the season 6-1 to be in the discussion for an NIT bid. In other words, if we play well enough to actually grab the 3rd spot in the MWC, then I believe we will be in the discussion for an NIT bid. Regardless of what you say, I find it unlikely that the Pokes get that 3rd place spot. Hence the reason I believe it a long-shot to make the NIT.

Secondly, even if we finish with a better conference record than both UNLV and Boise State, there is a legitimate argument that both could be selected over the Pokes for the NIT. Why? UNLV is a nationally recognized name with "big name" players that would generate more excitement on a national basis. Boise State played a much tougher non-conference slate, and the selection committees have really been rewarding teams for schedule difficulty in recent years.

Hope that clears things up a bit for you.

 

[NowherePoke]

I don't know Beav, right now Wyo is sitting at 89 in the RPI. Of the 7 remaining games, only 1 is in the RPI Top 100 (Boise @ #60). Meaning even if we win out the regular season, our RPI will not go up drastically. IMO, the only way we go dancing is by taking the MWC tournament. Now if we win out and do well in the tourney, I wouldn't rule out a possible NIT invite.

When we got an at-large bid in 2002, our RPI was somewhere around 70 after we got bounced from the MWC tournament. Still made it in at 21-8.

Pokes RPI in 2002 was 56.

Pokes had two other teams with Top 60 RPI ratings that were left out of the NCAAT (2000-01, and Shyatt's first year in 97-98).


The last two years, the Pokes RPI was 73 and 83 and they were left out of the NIT both times. If the Pokes go 5-1 the rest of the way,their RPI projection (from rpiforecast.com) would be about 76. I think they would get in this time since their recent performance will be much better, but there are a lot of variables that effect the NIT. The NIT is only 32 teams (was larger at one point in the past) and they give auto-bids to regular season conference champions, so all of the low major regular season conference champs that get upset in their conference tournament get bids (Big Sky for example, Weber would get a NIT bid with an RPI of 160, if they didn't win the conf tournament). So, a bubble NIT team like Wyoming would be at the mercy of how many of those auto-bids were used.

If the Pokes go 4-2 the rest of the way, their RPI will be around 90. That's probably CBI territory, depending on what they do in the MWCT.

 

[TSpoke]

I don't know Beav, right now Wyo is sitting at 89 in the RPI. Of the 7 remaining games, only 1 is in the RPI Top 100 (Boise @ #60). Meaning even if we win out the regular season, our RPI will not go up drastically. IMO, the only way we go dancing is by taking the MWC tournament. Now if we win out and do well in the tourney, I wouldn't rule out a possible NIT invite.

Agreed.

Even if we win out and lose in the MWC Tournament championship game, we would not get an at-large bid in the Big Dance. The only way we make the NCAA Tournament is by winning the MWC Tournament. Period.

The NIT is a long-shot at this point. It is not completely out of the question, but would probably require us ending the season no worse than 6-1 and making it to the MWC championship game. We can all dream, but it's a bit unrealistic to expect an NIT bid this year.

Most likely scenario is that the Pokes end up in the CBI. Unlike past years, the Pokes will be one of the best teams in the tournament this year. Unfortunately, it also coincides with our arena renovation and the Pokes have to play all games on the road. The Cowboys would be a legitimate threat to win the whole thing if they were to host a couple games, but playing all road games will make that road much, much tougher. Personally, I would look forward to seeing what the Pokes would do this year in the CBI. I can't say that about previous years.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-hDl6OALv4[/youtube]