To avoid derailing a thread, 5-6 years? Really?

[Wyo2dal]

How did all those conferences compare nationally at the time? Either way, so much has changed in the past 10-20 years, the historical comparisons are difficult. Hell, Ivy League Schools were the powerhouses :lol:

I'm genuine when asking if there has been a G5 coach in the past 10-20 years who did little more than 7 wins and a bowl game or so in his first 4 years and then went on to have great teams consistently? I looked at some of the more successful G5 programs (at the time) and most had experienced success by year 4. If you look at new coaches who failed, they didn't really achieve much other than maybe a 7 or 8 win season and bowl game in their first 4 years.

I just don't think the talent discrepancy at our level of football is so great that it takes years and years to become a really good (in terms of MWC) football team. I don't see it. I also think comparing P5 to G5 is useless because the talent discrepancies are much more pronounced at the P5 level.

I do think Bohl and company are great coaches and will do great things. I think our 10+ win season will be here by year 4. The disclaimer being our schedules continue to be like the upcoming year and not the past year.

The only coach you can point at that has accomplished that and it is Chris Petersen.

 

[J-Rod]

Like most, I'm still in wait and see mode. I don't think it's a guarantee that Bohl gets this program to the expectations some fans have. He did some good things last season (Fresno), but had his fair share of rough games (Hawaii, SJSU, loss by 50 on Senior Night) that didn't exactly scream "we're gonna be a Top 25 program one day".

DC started off his tenure with a bowl game. And that was in the old MW. He then went 8-4 in 2011...remember how high expectations were? The "U" word was surfacing that entire following off-season.....but he still managed to fail only two years later. This is a tough job, one I think Bohl is the perfect fit for. But by no means do I think he's a sure-lock to get Wyoming to Boise State status. I personally think his ceiling may be at getting UW to winning 7-8 games annually, while occasionally competing for a title. Even that is no guarantee.

Again, let's not forget that if you told anyone on this board in 2011 that Dave Christensen would be fired within 2.5 years, you would have been laughed at and digitally flogged. Hope exists...but for now, it's just hope.

 

[JimmyDimes]

How did all those conferences compare nationally at the time? Either way, so much has changed in the past 10-20 years, the historical comparisons are difficult. Hell, Ivy League Schools were the powerhouses :lol:

I'm genuine when asking if there has been a G5 coach in the past 10-20 years who did little more than 7 wins and a bowl game or so in his first 4 years and then went on to have great teams consistently? I looked at some of the more successful G5 programs (at the time) and most had experienced success by year 4. If you look at new coaches who failed, they didn't really achieve much other than maybe a 7 or 8 win season and bowl game in their first 4 years.

I just don't think the talent discrepancy at our level of football is so great that it takes years and years to become a really good (in terms of MWC) football team. I don't see it. I also think comparing P5 to G5 is useless because the talent discrepancies are much more pronounced at the P5 level.

I do think Bohl and company are great coaches and will do great things. I think our 10+ win season will be here by year 4. The disclaimer being our schedules continue to be like the upcoming year and not the past year.

The only coach you can point at that has accomplished that and it is Chris Petersen.

Chris Peterson was an assistant at Boise, an already developed program, before he became head coach. There was no rebuilding job and he didn't take over a program with a losing record.

 

[J-Rod]

Boise State has the only long-standing run of top level success among non-P5's (2000-present). Everyone else has brief spurts of success, almost always (hell, it might be always) in tandem with a great QB falling into their laps. Hawaii with Brennan, Nevada with Kaepernick, Fresno with Carr, Colorado State with Grayson, Utah State with Keeton (eh, sorta. They ain't won shit). All of these runs were solid (10+ wins), but not a sign of things to come. All of them fell back to earth almost immediately (CSU will too). But top-level QB play is synonymous with success. None of these teams won big with an average QB except maybe Boise. Probably the reason SDSU can't break the 8-win plateau.

I think it's a little harder to maintain that level of success (8+ wins annually for an extended period, not just a blip in the radar) than we're letting onto. It's hard to win a lot and consistently...especially with the P5 programs picking off assets with ease nowadays.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

The only coach you can point at that has accomplished that and it is Chris Petersen.

Accomplished 10+ or so wins within their first 4 years? I listed several. Some left and and the rest sustained success.

Sorry, 8-9 wins in the MWC isn't exactly daunting. Outside of the top 2 teams, the rest are in the bottom half of CFB. In the upcoming year, we have somewhere around 10 games against the bottom half of CFB.

I guess agree to disagree, but my prediction is Bohl will have a 10+ win season within 4 years (I haven't checked schedule so the disclaimer is a schedule similar to the upcoming year).

I also think that hovering around 6-7 (maybe 8) win seasons for 4 years is an indication of a Rocky Long-type ceiling (at best) in the coming years.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Boise State has the only long-standing run of top level success among non-P5's (2000-present). Everyone else has brief spurts of success, almost always (hell, it might be always) in tandem with a great QB falling into their laps. Hawaii with Brennan, Nevada with Kaepernick, Fresno with Carr, Colorado State with Grayson, Utah State with Keeton (eh, sorta. They ain't won shit). All of these runs were solid (10+ wins), but not a sign of things to come. All of them fell back to earth almost immediately (CSU will too). But top-level QB play is synonymous with success. None of these teams won big with an average QB except maybe Boise. Probably the reason SDSU can't break the 8-win plateau.

I think it's a little harder to maintain that level of success (8+ wins annually for an extended period, not just a blip in the radar) than we're letting onto. It's hard to win a lot and consistently...especially with the P5 programs picking off assets with ease nowadays.

True, but most of those "great" G5 teams also showed 10 or so wins within the first 4 years of the coach being hired.

That is kind of the point. I think the first 4 years are an indication of if a staff is going to build a program or not. Sure you will have up and down, but successful staffs seem to have a few decent-big up years within the first 4.

 

[J-Rod]

True, but most of those "great" G5 teams also showed 10 or so wins within the first 4 years of the coach being hired.

That is kind of the point. I think the first 4 years are an indication of if a staff is going to build a program or not. Sure you will have up and down, but successful staffs seem to have a few decent-big up years within the first 4.

You can certainly make a good argument for that. I think Bohl may need a little more time....DeRuyter lucked into Carr, McElwain Grayson, and so on...but you make a good point. I just don't think it's sustainable either way. Expecting Bohl to establish Wyoming as an 8-9+ game winner annually for a long period of time (7-10 years) will be an awfully high goal to reach. I bet if Bohl heard that's the expectation, he'd cringe.

I believe on a radio show a few weeks ago, he set the bar at "making" a MW title game before he's done in Laramie, or otherwise his tenure would be a failure.

 

[JimmyDimes]

True, but most of those "great" G5 teams also showed 10 or so wins within the first 4 years of the coach being hired.

That is kind of the point. I think the first 4 years are an indication of if a staff is going to build a program or not. Sure you will have up and down, but successful staffs seem to have a few decent-big up years within the first 4.

You can certainly make a good argument for that. I think Bohl may need a little more time....DeRuyter lucked into Carr, McElwain Grayson, and so on...but you make a good point. I just don't think it's sustainable either way. Expecting Bohl to establish Wyoming as an 8-9+ game winner annually for a long period of time (7-10 years) will be an awfully high goal to reach. I bet if Bohl heard that's the expectation, he'd cringe.

I believe on a radio show a few weeks ago, he set the bar at "making" a MW title game before he's done in Laramie, or otherwise his tenure would be a failure.

From what I've heard, his goals are much greater than reaching a MWC Title game. And, I think he would accept the challenge...not cringe and say "what are they smoking".

 

[Wyo2dal]

I don't think he will have a problem reaching that goal but I don't think it will include many P5 wins and will probably be a schedule that no one is happy about getting those 8 wins it but it will build the program up.

Like Basketball everyone gives Shyatt little to no credit because the OOC is so weak it won't be much different in Football.

 

[laxwyo]

I expect 1 conference loss seasons. That loss being BSU. No other program has sustained success but we might catch someone on the upswing

 

[ragtimejoe1]

You can certainly make a good argument for that. I think Bohl may need a little more time....DeRuyter lucked into Carr, McElwain Grayson, and so on...but you make a good point. I just don't think it's sustainable either way. Expecting Bohl to establish Wyoming as an 8-9+ game winner annually for a long period of time (7-10 years) will be an awfully high goal to reach. I bet if Bohl heard that's the expectation, he'd cringe.

I don't disagree with that, for sure. I do think the BSU model is nearly impossible to replicate for whatever reason. They may even find themselves one day looking back on the BSU glory years.

I think an achievable goal is a "Rocky Long" type of program with a little BSU success sprinkled in on some years.

The homer in me believes that Bohl can build a BSU at Wyoming. I actually do believe that, so sue me

 

[J-Rod]

I don't disagree with that, for sure. I do think the BSU model is nearly impossible to replicate for whatever reason. They may even find themselves one day looking back on the BSU glory years.

I think an achievable goal is a "Rocky Long" type of program with a little BSU success sprinkled in on some years.

The homer in me believes that Bohl can build a BSU at Wyoming. I actually do believe that, so sue me

Haha fair enough...there is hope until proven otherwise. But like I said, we've been here before. BeaverPoke had Wyoming as a lock in multiple Rose Bowls after DC went 8-4 in 2011. Within 2 years, DC was given his pink slip. This shit is harder than we think it is. Bohl could just as easily end up never being a great coach at Wyoming. He wouldn't be the first guy to fail to live up to expectations.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

I don't think he will have a problem reaching that goal but I don't think it will include many P5 wins and will probably be a schedule that no one is happy about getting those 8 wins it but it will build the program up.

Like Basketball everyone gives Shyatt little to no credit because the OOC is so weak it won't be much different in Football.

Actually, I give Shyatt a ton of credit. Amazing what he has done.

If I remember BSU pre-Georgia (the first one), that was the criticism. They don't play anybody.

Sometimes I think the weak SOS isn't bad for a building program. In the case of football, a few years of weak SOS won't be a bad thing. In terms of bball, I think we can start to pick it up a bit.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Bohl could just as easily end up never being a great coach at Wyoming. He wouldn't be the first guy to fail to live up to expectations.

No doubt and definitely a worry. Sometimes it has nothing to do with coaching ability.

 

[J-Rod]

Actually, I give Shyatt a ton of credit. Amazing what he has done.

If I remember BSU pre-Georgia (the first one), that was the criticism. They don't play anybody.

Sometimes I think the weak SOS isn't bad for a building program. In the case of football, a few years of weak SOS won't be a bad thing. In terms of bball, I think we can start to pick it up a bit.

The June Jones years in Hawaii were built on feasting on a poor schedule. Several of the 9+ win seasons were as a result of playing 3 OOC home games, playing the likes of NMSU, Idaho, Utah State (yes, they used to be horrible). But hey....it got UH into a major bowl game. Got slaughtered....but being slaughtered in a major bowl is a lot more than most non-P5's can say. I agree, softening OOC play can be a good thing for the first stage of this rebuilding process.

 

[Wyokie]

Actually, I give Shyatt a ton of credit. Amazing what he has done.

If I remember BSU pre-Georgia (the first one), that was the criticism. They don't play anybody.

Sometimes I think the weak SOS isn't bad for a building program. In the case of football, a few years of weak SOS won't be a bad thing. In terms of bball, I think we can start to pick it up a bit.

The June Jones years in Hawaii were built on feasting on a poor schedule. Several of the 9+ win seasons were as a result of playing 3 OOC home games, playing the likes of NMSU, Idaho, Utah State (yes, they used to be horrible). But hey....it got UH into a major bowl game. Got slaughtered....but being slaughtered in a major bowl is a lot more than most non-P5's can say. I agree, softening OOC play can be a good thing for the first stage of this rebuilding process.

Their 12-0 season in 2007 would never been possible had Michigan State not cancelled their 2007 game vs. Hawaii. The Bows ended up having to get Northern Colorado as replacement. :rofl:

 

[BeaverPoke]

Actually, I give Shyatt a ton of credit. Amazing what he has done.

If I remember BSU pre-Georgia (the first one), that was the criticism. They don't play anybody.

Sometimes I think the weak SOS isn't bad for a building program. In the case of football, a few years of weak SOS won't be a bad thing. In terms of bball, I think we can start to pick it up a bit.

The June Jones years in Hawaii were built on feasting on a poor schedule. Several of the 9+ win seasons were as a result of playing 3 OOC home games, playing the likes of NMSU, Idaho, Utah State (yes, they used to be horrible). But hey....it got UH into a major bowl game. Got slaughtered....but being slaughtered in a major bowl is a lot more than most non-P5's can say. I agree, softening OOC play can be a good thing for the first stage of this rebuilding process.

Their 12-0 season in 2007 would never been possible had Michigan State not cancelled their 2007 game vs. Hawaii. The Bows ended up having to get Northern Colorado as replacement. :rofl:

The 2007 Michigan State team that finished 7-6? The one that started 4-0 in OOC play then went on to finish 3-6?
Interesting.

 

[J-Rod]

The 2007 Michigan State team that finished 7-6? The one that started 4-0 in OOC play then went on to finish 3-6?
Interesting.

Yeah, back then...UH didn't lose to anybody late in the season on Oahu. MSU would have probably lost on Oahu...again.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Found one that took over 4 years and I would consider successful overall...Pat Hill. I think he was fairly stagnant for 5 years or so and then had a pretty solid run until his "twilight years".

 

[J-Rod]

Found one that took over 4 years and I would consider successful overall...Pat Hill. I think he was fairly stagnant for 5 years or so and then had a pretty solid run until his "twilight years".

Hmm...maybe. Sorta. Again, like the other non-P5 successes not named BSU, he lucked into a star QB (the first Carr). He did manage a solid season or two without him though.