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Proof that Stars Don't Matter

Bryoming

Bryoming

Well-known member
With signing day coming up, I was doing a little bit of research to see who was still uncommitted, what players were still with us, and the like. While doing that on 247sports, I came across a list of Wyoming's "best recruits ever". (Looking at the list it appears to only go back to 2000). The following are the list of the highest rated recruits we've landed since 2000:

1. Jon Hawk - OG - 4* - 2002 (never enrolled)
2. Joseph Harris - RB - 3* - 2004 (situational back who never averaged more than 40 yards in a season)
3. Dax Crum - QB - 3* - 2008 (Pretty decent backup QB)
4. Trent Sewell - WR - 3* - 2012 (Moved to LB, then quit the team)
5. Adam Pittser - QB - 3* - 2011 (Never saw the field. Transferred to Indiana State, where he was moved to the defensive line)
6. Chandler Garrett - QB - 3* - 2016 (This one still stings. I wish Chandler nothing but the best)
7. Austyn Carta-Samuels - QB - 3* - 2009 (Dickface ran him off after 2 years. First solid player for us on this list)
8. Nehemie Kankolongo - RB - 3* - 2010 (Loved his story, but he never did much outside of special teams for us)
9. James Davis - RB - 3* - 2007 (Played in one game and left the team in 2010)
10. Justice Murphy - WR - 3* - 2015 (Caught one pass and quit the team)

You can find the rest of the list here. It's a pretty interesting read. Some of our current better players are on there, but it just goes to show that recruiting rankings are a crap shoot. Hell, Josh Doctson is tied for 43rd best with the likes of Robert Benjamin, Kurt Taufa'asau, Tashaun Gipson, and Mazi Ogbonna. 3 of the 5 of them are pros, and Mazi was a really good receiver for us.

I'm excited about our highly ranked recruits, but this has certainly made me step aside and take a closer look at who signs in this and future classes.
 
Well, we know stars really don't matter because Walker went from a 2* to a 3* as soon as he flipped to Nebraska.
 
MrTitleist said:
Well, we know stars really don't matter because Walker went from a 2* to a 3* as soon as he flipped to Nebraska.
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Walker will probably be upgraded to a 4* before signing day. The cornfuckers can't have anything less than a 4* recruit on their roster, LMAO. Oh, and to hell with rivals and their star rating bullshit - what a joke!!
 
WYCowboy said:
I think Coach Bohl can see beyond the star rating.
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I agree. He doesn't seem interested in stars. He's interested in how the player looks on the field and how he conducts himself off of the field. If they don't fit his profile they don't come to Wyoming. I don't care if they're Jadeveon Clowney or Leonard Fournette, if they're not in his mold he won't offer them a scholarship.
 
Good stuff WYO1016. So interesting.

Pittser is playing D line? Ouch.

ACS was fun to watch. He had attitude, but I blame DC for a lot of that.
 
Stars matter. There was an article not too long ago showing the percentage of 2*, 3*, 4* and 5* star HS recruits that played in the NFL. Not surprisingly, with each increase in the star rating there was an increase in percentage that played in the NFL.

Sure, there will always be outliers or guys that go overlooked for whatever reason. This is who Bohl seems to be successful in recruiting and this is one way to be successful at Wyoming (find the guys who can play regardless of star rating that don't get many or any FBS offers).

What this does show...Wyoming doesn't historically recruit high 3* players that pan out. Except Dax Crum...he was responsible for the Wyoming love from Van Pelt and Russillo even though he never did anything worth mentioning on the football field.
 
Another activity is to evaluate average recruiting class ratings over 5 years or so and then compare to the t25 standings or conference standings.

I haven't done this for awhile, so I'm not sure how it looks now. When I did that before, both t25 and MWC standings followed pretty closely with recruiting class rankings.
 
djm19 said:
Good stuff WYO1016. So interesting.

Pittser is playing D line? Ouch.

ACS was fun to watch. He had attitude, but I blame DC for a lot of that.
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Yeah, Pittser never made it past 3rd string QB at Illinois State (not Indiana State, my mistake). He ended up as a 265 pound DE.
 
McPeachy said:
MrTitleist said:
Well, we know stars really don't matter because Walker went from a 2* to a 3* as soon as he flipped to Nebraska.
Click to expand...

Walker will probably be upgraded to a 4* before signing day. The cornfuckers can't have anything less than a 4* recruit on their roster, LMAO. Oh, and to hell with rivals and their star rating bullshit - what a joke!!
Click to expand...

Can't let the cornfucker faithful know that they poached a 2* from ole Wyoming


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I see approximately zero schools competing on an annual top 15 level that don't recruit very well based on star ratings. For every 2-star recruit that turns out to be a stud, there are 100 that turn out to be nobody. That ratio is significantly better among 5-star/4-star players.

Even at the G5 level...the only G5 team that beat powerhouses like Florida State and Louisville in 2016 (Houston)? 4-stars galore and anchored defensively by a 5-star NT.

Stars don't mean everything, but they absolutely matter. Maybe not as much on the G5 level, but ALL of the genuinely elite college football programs are stacked with these studs. There is no college football powerhouse loading up on 2-star/3-star kids.
 
I absolutely think stars matter to get an opportunity. At the end of the day, a lot of starred guys haven't made it. In our case in the MWC, we will never land a big star guy. And that is fine. Josh Allen was a 0 star. I trust Bohl's judgment. I saw what I am assuming is Gentry's little brother was offered a scholarship this week. I think Bohl knows he can win with kids who never got much of an offer from someone else.

http://www.coachingsearch.com/article?a=What-Craig-Bohl-learned-from-Tom-Osborne-about-recruiting-and-walkons
 
i truly wonder what woulda happened with ACS if DC wouldn't have run him off from here, I truly liked this kid and his gut and determination
 
J-Rod said:
I see approximately zero schools competing on an annual top 15 level that don't recruit very well based on star ratings. For every 2-star recruit that turns out to be a stud, there are 100 that turn out to be nobody. That ratio is significantly better among 5-star/4-star players.

Even at the G5 level...the only G5 team that beat powerhouses like Florida State and Louisville in 2016 (Houston)? 4-stars galore and anchored defensively by a 5-star NT.

Stars don't mean everything, but they absolutely matter. Maybe not as much on the G5 level, but ALL of the genuinely elite college football programs are stacked with these studs. There is no college football powerhouse loading up on 2-star/3-star kids.
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I think you have to segment the recruiting rankings into 4/5 star type players, which have largely been seen and evaluated by those doing the rankings and have impressed in those conditions, and the 2/3 star guys who rankings appear to be pretty much arbitrary based on who offers them and/or some hudl videos (see Walker magically going from 2 to 3 star when switching his commitment).

We are never going to consistently get 4/5 star type players so it really doesn't matter if we are recruiting more 3 stars or not in a vacuum.

However, while rankings don't matter a lot to UW, recruiting still does. Who you compete against for recruits still matters. It's not infallible, but the best recruiting evaluations are the ones done by those whose jobs depend on being accurate (FBS coaches). If a lot of coaches see a kid and are confident enough in his ability to extend a scholarship offer, then it is probably a good sign. It's not perfect of course, but I think it matters.

Now, obviously it is hard sometimes to actually know who has truly offered a player, but I think that is the best measure overall for Wyoming. The more we find ourselves going to head to head with MWC or better caliber programs for recruits and winning the better off we will be.

Having said all of that, the more we win the better our recruiting rankings will be regardless of the caliber of player we sign. Much like Walker, the primary tool used for Rivals and their ilk to grade players that schools like Wyoming recruit is to look at who else offers. Today, if we offer a kid he gets a 2-star. If Nebraska offers he magically becomes a 3-star. Boise has had enough success that their recruits usually get the default 3-star now. Are they really recruiting better players than 7 or 8 years ago? I don't think their results on the field indicate that (they are good now and were even better then), but as a proven brand their recruits get the benefit of the doubt.
 
J-Rod said:
I see approximately zero schools competing on an annual top 15 level that don't recruit very well based on star ratings. For every 2-star recruit that turns out to be a stud, there are 100 that turn out to be nobody. That ratio is significantly better among 5-star/4-star players.

Even at the G5 level...the only G5 team that beat powerhouses like Florida State and Louisville in 2016 (Houston)? 4-stars galore and anchored defensively by a 5-star NT.

Stars don't mean everything, but they absolutely matter. Maybe not as much on the G5 level, but ALL of the genuinely elite college football programs are stacked with these studs. There is no college football powerhouse loading up on 2-star/3-star kids.
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It's sort of a self regulating mechanism. If you get offered by top 15 program, your star rating increases. Good teams boost ratings. But how many teams were good, and continued to recruit well based on stars but turned into a dumpster fire?


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djm19 said:
I absolutely think stars matter to get an opportunity. At the end of the day, a lot of starred guys haven't made it. In our case in the MWC, we will never land a big star guy. And that is fine. Josh Allen was a 0 star. I trust Bohl's judgment. I saw what I am assuming is Gentry's little brother was offered a scholarship this week. I think Bohl knows he can win with kids who never got much of an offer from someone else.

http://www.coachingsearch.com/article?a=What-Craig-Bohl-learned-from-Tom-Osborne-about-recruiting-and-walkons
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Ya'll need to read this article that djm19 posted. I didn't think I could respect Coach Bohl any more than I already did. WRONG! He's awesome. This article makes it even more clear.
 
stymeman said:
i truly wonder what woulda happened with ACS if DC wouldn't have run him off from here, I truly liked this kid and his gut and determination
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I agree wholeheartedly. I will always remember the stiff arm ACS gave the CSU defensive back when he scored the game winning TD his last year with us.
 
There is a difference between saying "stars matter" and saying the Rivals star system is a joke.

The joke is when you have a NR or 2* rated athlete committed to a non-Big 5 school, and then he flips to committing to a Big 5 school and his rating magically goes up 1 or 2 "stars". That is a GD joke.
 
McPeachy said:
There is a difference between saying "stars matter" and saying the Rivals star system is a joke.

The joke is when you have a NR or 2* rated athlete committed to a non-Big 5 school, and then he flips to committing to a Big 5 school and his rating magically goes up 1 or 2 "stars". That is a GD joke.
Click to expand...

Nah, those guys just gained a ton of intangibles over a period of a few weeks.
 
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