P12 - MWC

[rocket city poke]

Famous words from Warren Buffett, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." UW sort of hid behind the facilities, the attendance and MWC television deal. The tide is going out . . .

 

[TheRealUW]

I agree. It seems to me that the PAC just got the media deal the MWC would have got had the league stayed together. It’s basically a continuation of the current deal but now going to the PAC.

That said - I’m not sad if the MWC loses CBS and more particularly CBSSN. That is the worst network in terms of distribution and limits viewing options. I’d love for CW, FS1 and FS2 over that.

I think there is a pretty good chance Fox will be the only major broadcaster to put in a bid in the upcoming MWC media rights negotiations, so you'll probably get your wish.

The problem is that the MWC is not going to have much leverage in negotiating a price if CBS doesn't show interest. That probably means less money than anticipated and possibly undesirable day/time slots.

Yes, the MWC is alive, but it looks to be losing ground quickly.

 

[307bball]

Famous words from Warren Buffett, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." UW sort of hid behind the facilities, the attendance and MWC television deal. The tide is going out . . .

Probably true for more than just us...but yes...seems about right.

 

[PorkerPoke]

The only remaining unknowns are:

1 - value of the future MWC media deal
2 - the fees collected from the pee12

Even if the pee12 makes $5 million more a team per year how much they pay the MWC can somewhat neutralize the disparity in media deals. So…does the MWC acquiesce and accept less than 75%? 75% of $145 million is $108,000,000. As the percentage goes lower every dollar less in the media deal will become more painful.

It’s all about the he exit/poaching fees now if the MWC comes away with any sentimental victory.

 

[Midwest Cowboy]

I am a lot more angry about how Gloria Nevarez managed the MWC than Tom Burman and UW athletics. She makes more than a million dollars a year (after somehow breaking her contract with WCC) and has destroyed the conference. In my opinion (I could easily be wrong) but I really thought there would be a merger. Adding UTEP, NIU (no offense), Grand Canyon, and UC Davis made sure a merger would never happen. Anything with a pulse....

MWC doesn't look good and makes no sense. Whatever the media deal...I blame Nevarez and the inept MWC leadership.

 

[PorkerPoke]

I am a lot more angry about how Gloria Nevarez managed the MWC than Tom Burman and UW athletics. She makes more than a million dollars a year (after somehow breaking her contract with WCC) and has destroyed the conference. In my opinion (I could easily be wrong) but I really thought there would be a merger. Adding UTEP, NIU (no offense), Grand Canyon, and UC Davis made sure a merger would never happen. Anything with a pulse....

MWC doesn't look good and makes no sense. Whatever the media deal...I blame Nevarez and the inept MWC leadership.

In all fairness to Gloria, she got the MWC in the position to collect up to $145 million. She tried to get Texas State right away but they didn’t want to jump from $2 million in media revenue to $3.5 million with an uncertain future. At least the MWC has the 8 members needed to be at the minimum for football and 9 members for basketball (and all the requisite sports required to be D1).

The test for me is how much of the $145 million do we actually collect which after legal fees and expansion expenses determines the cut for the MWC members.

Keep in mind that 4 members (Wyoming, UNM, SJSU and Nevada) were so likely to be kicked to the side of the road they agreed to kiss the UNLV and AFA asses with an extra $13 million dollars (minimum of $7 million) from the penalty fees if they agreed to stay MWC.

Wyoming is very fortunate to not be begging the CUSA for a membership. Gloria was able to keep the ship afloat and at least have the MWC in a position to be a top 3 G level conference. We were able to escape UTEP 26 years ago but now are fortunate to invite them to escape the CUSA bottom dwellers of the FBS.

The pee12 has spent a lot of money to look good, but they aren’t any closer to P4 status than the MWC is. The pee12 might not even get a AAC level media deal. They will no doubt be no worse than #2 and will have spent a lot of $$ to get there.

Wait for the settlement. That will tell you how much money the pee12 will ultimately get and how much the MWC won’t get. There is still a chance that over the next 5 years (if the FBS lasts that long) the MWC members won’t be financially behind the traitors.

 

[phxpoke]

For all talk on this board about Boise (who have been very successful recruiting players out of California) I would like Wyoming to replicate the success of Gonzaga in basketball. I just see it being far easier to recruit 2 or 3 great players a year than 10 or 15 needed in football.

Only if we can pay them A LOT of money

 

[PorkerPoke]

Thinking through the CBS deal:

CBS - 4 (3+ min) regular season football
CBS - 4 (3+ min) regular season basketball

CBSSN - regular season football
CBSSN - regular season basketball

Questions for debate:

Value - the value is undisclosed. The traitors hold the position the remaining MWC held them back from the value they deserve. How much more will CBS bestow on the traitors being aligned the pee2 than they did with UNLV/AFA and the other 5 MWC members?

Performance Pay - Will the teams deemed as the premium games earn additional revenue or will it be split equally to all members? Gonzaga not being much of a national feature?

Therefore, before I get into the doldrums of the MWC is going to blow I will have to await the mediation and announcement of the VALUES of both conferences media deals. It will define expected income for the next 5 years or remainder of the FBS - whichever occurs first. Maybe the pee12 rolled the dice and they don’t reap the expected rewards.

 

[NorthWestCowboy]

I am a lot more angry about how Gloria Nevarez managed the MWC than Tom Burman and UW athletics. She makes more than a million dollars a year (after somehow breaking her contract with WCC) and has destroyed the conference. In my opinion (I could easily be wrong) but I really thought there would be a merger. Adding UTEP, NIU (no offense), Grand Canyon, and UC Davis made sure a merger would never happen. Anything with a pulse....

MWC doesn't look good and makes no sense. Whatever the media deal...I blame Nevarez and the inept MWC leadership.

As both a Wyo and OSU alum who also lives in Eastern WA I had little confidence that WOSU would ever consider a merger. I told my OSU and WSU friends shortly after the settlement was reached between the PAC 2 and the departing PAC 12 members that rather than becoming conference mates the settlement money would break apart the MWC. There were too many MWC schools wanting a best of the rest conference and they'd use the PAC 2's money to fund it.

 

[Midwest Cowboy]

As both a Wyo and OSU alum who also lives in Eastern WA I had little confidence that WOSU would ever consider a merger. I told my OSU and WSU friends shortly after the settlement was reached between the PAC 2 and the departing PAC 12 members that rather than becoming conference mates the settlement money would break apart the MWC. There were too many MWC schools wanting a best of the rest conference and they'd use the PAC 2's money to fund it.

With all due respect, the only reason MWC added any schools was playing a catch-up game after it had been fractured. Maybe the traitor schools would have stayed had MWC been out aggressively marketing growth with some success. I don't think MWC is in any position to look down on CUSA. Neither look too exciting. To me, it doesn't look like there was any attempt to leverage SDSU or BSU to find new, quality members.

There is no one left in the MWC that can attract anyone save maybe UNLV who appears to be hanging by a thread or AFA to maybe attract the military schools. Of course, that would require coast to coast extensive travel.

For a million dollars a year and whatever other bonuses, saying she kept the conference afloat through tough times just doesn't cut it. But I would have more respect if there was some honesty about the whole thing. Just say it...we are a weak conference now and we did our best to add some new, mediocre teams to at least maintain conference status. Writing has been on the wall for so long about SDSU and BSU wanting to leave. MWC did nothing to compel them to stay. No way the traitor schools leave if BSU was convinced to stick around. Reaction is not leadership.

I know we have covered all these topics a 100 times. I just don't see a happy ending with a big payout. Even then, how does that parlay into a better conference? MWC had name recognition with SDSU, BSU, Fresno. I guess AFA and UNLV will have that role. But neither appear too excited.

This has all been said before and is nothing more than an obvious rant on my part. Man I miss the 1996 WAC. Too bad that mega conference did stick around. And we actually had a team (top 25 and no bowl invite if I recall correctly). I have no hope for a solid media deal because the teams just are not there.

 

[PorkerPoke]

I know we have covered all these topics a 100 times. I just don't see a happy ending with a big payout. Even then, how does that parlay into a better conference? MWC had name recognition with SDSU, BSU, Fresno. I guess AFA and UNLV will have that role. But neither appear too excited.

This has all been said before and is nothing more than an obvious rant on my part.

Midwest - you are describing the pains of the divorce we didn’t want. Wyoming was fortunate to be included in the MWC in the first place. The $$$ wasn’t the same issue it is today regarding media and the WAC 16 had become a bloated pig with the rotating quadrants.

To me the biggest issue is Wyoming is viewed by those we have been involved with for numerous decades as a school of no value and we just got UTEP’d from association with the “names”. We are still fortunate in this world of college athletics to be associated with the UNLV and AFA names under the MWC brand.

Wyoming has not been and probably never will be high on the relevance scale. We are considered undesirable by the pee12 group and if something happens that takes the 2 “premier” programs away from the MWC we will be struggling to get another member of value and would have to look at programs like NMSU. Wyoming is more aligned with programs like NMSU in perceived value nationally than it is with UNLV.

We can toot the horn of being a member of the #3 conference in the G level expecting a nice settlement that will keep us more competitive than the bottom 3 G conferences (I’m guilty), but what we are seeing is the maneuvering to be included in the best of the rest from the position of absolute weakness and I don’t see any will at Wyoming to be aggressive in pursuit of being a desirable option. The obvious - I don’t think we even asked the pee12 to consider our involvement before getting giddy we might now be competitive in the MWC.

The only road Wyoming has to relevance in the upper level of college athletics is to become the NDSU at football and the Gonzaga at basketball but that ship sailed long ago. And as for my rant that redirects this from the MWC to the direct cause, I put our situation on the leadership at Wyoming for openly accepting mediocrity as a level of success. While football has been a little above mediocre for the past 10 years it has really never been a MWC power for the last 26 years while basketball has had only a couple of flashes of success since 2002. College sports kept changing and while we upgraded our facilities wonderfully we have been entrenched with losing results further cementing our irrelevant identity on the national value scale.

 

[cowpoke pride]

Midwest - you are describing the pains of the divorce we didn’t want. Wyoming was fortunate to be included in the MWC in the first place. The $$$ wasn’t the same issue it is today regarding media and the WAC 16 had become a bloated pig with the rotating quadrants.

To me the biggest issue is Wyoming is viewed by those we have been involved with for numerous decades as a school of no value and we just got UTEP’d from association with the “names”. We are still fortunate in this world of college athletics to be associated with the UNLV and AFA names under the MWC brand.

Wyoming has not been and probably never will be high on the relevance scale. We are considered undesirable by the pee12 group and if something happens that takes the 2 “premier” programs away from the MWC we will be struggling to get another member of value and would have to look at programs like NMSU. Wyoming is more aligned with programs like NMSU in perceived value nationally than it is with UNLV.

We can toot the horn of being a member of the #3 conference in the G level expecting a nice settlement that will keep us more competitive than the bottom 3 G conferences (I’m guilty), but what we are seeing is the maneuvering to be included in the best of the rest from the position of absolute weakness and I don’t see any will at Wyoming to be aggressive in pursuit of being a desirable option. The obvious - I don’t think we even asked the pee12 to consider our involvement before getting giddy we might now be competitive in the MWC.

The only road Wyoming has to relevance in the upper level of college athletics is to become the NDSU at football and the Gonzaga at basketball but that ship sailed long ago. And as for my rant that redirects this from the MWC to the direct cause, I put our situation on the leadership at Wyoming for openly accepting mediocrity as a level of success. While football has been a little above mediocre for the past 10 years it has really never been a MWC power for the last 26 years while basketball has had only a couple of flashes of success since 2002. College sports kept changing and while we upgraded our facilities wonderfully we have been entrenched with losing results further cementing our irrelevant identity on the national value scale.

"Divorce we didn't want," and "we just got UTEP'd." Perfect descriptions of this whole thing.

 

[307bball]

Midwest - you are describing the pains of the divorce we didn’t want. Wyoming was fortunate to be included in the MWC in the first place. The $$$ wasn’t the same issue it is today regarding media and the WAC 16 had become a bloated pig with the rotating quadrants.

To me the biggest issue is Wyoming is viewed by those we have been involved with for numerous decades as a school of no value and we just got UTEP’d from association with the “names”. We are still fortunate in this world of college athletics to be associated with the UNLV and AFA names under the MWC brand.

Wyoming has not been and probably never will be high on the relevance scale. We are considered undesirable by the pee12 group and if something happens that takes the 2 “premier” programs away from the MWC we will be struggling to get another member of value and would have to look at programs like NMSU. Wyoming is more aligned with programs like NMSU in perceived value nationally than it is with UNLV.

We can toot the horn of being a member of the #3 conference in the G level expecting a nice settlement that will keep us more competitive than the bottom 3 G conferences (I’m guilty), but what we are seeing is the maneuvering to be included in the best of the rest from the position of absolute weakness and I don’t see any will at Wyoming to be aggressive in pursuit of being a desirable option. The obvious - I don’t think we even asked the pee12 to consider our involvement before getting giddy we might now be competitive in the MWC.

The only road Wyoming has to relevance in the upper level of college athletics is to become the NDSU at football and the Gonzaga at basketball but that ship sailed long ago. And as for my rant that redirects this from the MWC to the direct cause, I put our situation on the leadership at Wyoming for openly accepting mediocrity as a level of success. While football has been a little above mediocre for the past 10 years it has really never been a MWC power for the last 26 years while basketball has had only a couple of flashes of success since 2002. College sports kept changing and while we upgraded our facilities wonderfully we have been entrenched with losing results further cementing our irrelevant identity on the national value scale.

This aligns with how I see it pretty much.

I know there is a knee-jerk tendency to say that every bad thing that has happened is the result of Burman's inept-ness or complacency at the BOT or President level...I'm not so sure. I do see some levels of inept-ness (how can you miss it)...but I mostly see a university athletic department that defined some goals during the last 20 odd years that had to do with fundraising, building facilities and football attendance. They didn't exactly fail in reference to those goals but the failure to be competitively relevant in the college athletic landscape got missed. My guess is that nobody realized how important the individual leading the football and MBB programs were to success. It was like we thought that if we had the best facilities and good crowds, we'll always be able to get great coaches. I remember some of the conversations around coaching compensation during the '90s and '00s....people in Wyoming from fans to leadership were not ready to spend on that. You could sell a project to upgrade/build almost anything but to really go out and make a bold high dollar play at coach was not ever on the table. I myself missed this ... I really thought that by building cool facilities coupled with a passionate fan base was going to lead to success.

People can say that we did eventually catch up in that category but I would say that the real forward thinking move would have been to over-invest in that and not just to "keep up". Hindsight is always 20/20 for sure...and I guess I don't know that type of strategy would have worked but the path that UW took during those years sure didn't work out either.

 

[PorkerPoke]

but the failure to be competitively relevant in the college athletic landscape got missed.

IMO - we became focused on retaining coaches so much that when a hire proved to be the incorrect choice it took at least another 2 years to get out of the contract or we rewarded getting to the .500 level with extensions that basically said mediocrity is to be rewarded.

I really do think Bohl was an excellent hire overall, but he should have been put on notice no later than the 2nd year after Allen that he had to improve the offensive performance to continue with getting extensions. I feel that there was this huge concern we would fall into an abysmal Koenning like situation without him so as long as we were able to get to bowl eligibility it was considered a monumental success.

I never liked the 2nd hire of Shyatt and the continued relationship with his kid under Edwards. On top of the Schroyer failure we hired back a 40% historic conference winner and enjoyed exactly that - about 40% success in the MWC and then due to incompetence the program hit lows not seen since the 70’s with the arrangement of Edwards and the son.

We used to laugh at how weak USU was and they were reluctantly accepted into the MWC where they have claimed conference championships in both major sports while Wyoming put tons of money into facilities and long term high price contracts for mediocre teams.

All we can do at this point is hope our current hires are able to produce in an environment that is even tougher to compete in. The future doesn’t seem to have much brightness to it at this point. That is the hard reality to digest in our desire to have the Wyoming Cowboys be a winner.

 

[Itsux2beaewe]

Value - the value is undisclosed. The traitors hold the position the remaining MWC held them back from the value they deserve. How much more will CBS bestow on the traitors being aligned the pee2 than they did with UNLV/AFA and the other 5 MWC members?

PorkerPoke Ive appreciated your posts and the updates on the status of the pee and the mediation, etc.

I’m wondering long term what the value of the pee is. It’s comprised of the 2 bottom feeders who the BIG didn’t want, nor did any other major conference, and the perceived top
of the MW. Outside of spud U and the asstecs, I don’t see they have relevance long term. Maybe a bit more money for a few years, but are they really better off long term. None of the major conference wants any of them, other than spud U possibly in the future. The Maggie’s were probably added to get to 8, but not really desired. Long term I’m not sure any of them have a whole lot brighter future. Am I missing something?

 

[307bball]

IMO - we became focused on retaining coaches so much that when a hire proved to be the incorrect choice it took at least another 2 years to get out of the contract or we rewarded getting to the .500 level with extensions that basically said mediocrity is to be rewarded.

I really do think Bohl was an excellent hire overall, but he should have been put on notice no later than the 2nd year after Allen that he had to improve the offensive performance to continue with getting extensions. I feel that there was this huge concern we would fall into an abysmal Koenning like situation without him so as long as we were able to get to bowl eligibility it was considered a monumental success.

I never liked the 2nd hire of Shyatt and the continued relationship with his kid under Edwards. On top of the Schroyer failure we hired back a 40% historic conference winner and enjoyed exactly that - about 40% success in the MWC and then due to incompetence the program hit lows not seen since the 70’s with the arrangement of Edwards and the son.

We used to laugh at how weak USU was and they were reluctantly accepted into the MWC where they have claimed conference championships in both major sports while Wyoming put tons of money into facilities and long term high price contracts for mediocre teams.

All we can do at this point is hope our current hires are able to produce in an environment that is even tougher to compete in. The future doesn’t seem to have much brightness to it at this point. That is the hard reality to digest in our desire to have the Wyoming Cowboys be a winner.

Coaches like Shyatt and Bohl have been the upper limit of what UW has accomplished athletically....both good coaches....both very respected but neither of them are moving up to that next level. Your observation about trying to retain coaches is really important. There should have been an embrace of the idea that losing coaches was going to be the new norm at UW following the Tiller era....Either they deliver and get approached by a no-brainer situation and end up leaving or they don't deliver and we move on quickly. I liked Glen, Bohl, and Shyatt...all of them have forgotten more than I'll ever know about coaching their respective sports. In a way, Bohl's longevity in the position should have been a red flag ... not a marker in his favor. We are not a sports program where coaches retire from. They either get canned or move up.

 

[TheRealUW]

Coaches like Shyatt and Bohl have been the upper limit of what UW has accomplished athletically....both good coaches....both very respected but neither of them are moving up to that next level. Your observation about trying to retain coaches is really important. There should have been an embrace of the idea that losing coaches was going to be the new norm at UW following the Tiller era....Either they deliver and get approached by a no-brainer situation and end up leaving or they don't deliver and we move on quickly. I liked Glen, Bohl, and Shyatt...all of them have forgotten more than I'll ever know about coaching their respective sports. In a way, Bohl's longevity in the position should have been a red flag ... not a marker in his favor. We are not a sports program where coaches retire from. They either get canned or move up.

I don't think Bohl or Shyatt were really looking to "move up".

Bohl probably would have accepted a head coaching position at Nebraska, but outside of that, I think he was happy ending his career at Wyoming. Shyatt was ready to retire before he came back to UW but felt like he had unfished business because of the way he left the first time. I think he felt an obligation to come back and "finish the job".

 

[PorkerPoke]

I’m wondering long term what the value of the pee is. It’s comprised of the 2 bottom feeders who the BIG didn’t want, nor did any other major conference, and the perceived top
of the MW. Outside of spud U and the asstecs, I don’t see they have relevance long term. Maybe a bit more money for a few years, but are they really better off long term. None of the major conference wants any of them, other than spud U possibly in the future. The Maggie’s were probably added to get to 8, but not really desired. Long term I’m not sure any of them have a whole lot brighter future. Am I missing something?

I don’t think you are missing anything. This entire process is about who gets the next dime and who gets the nickel or pennies on the comparison dollar of the P4’s.

With the expenses of building a new conference under the old P12 name, it’s like buying vintage Air Jordan’s at Goodwill but not in collectible condition. The financial bottom line will be the defining factor and unless the media amount NET value is revealed, it can be spinned to fit the narrative of supremacy.

What if the pee12 media deal is worth $9 million per team per year but the pee12 absorbs production costs for every sport to be on a form of media and it costs about $3 million per year to do it. That makes it worth $6 million in net revenue. If the traitors have to pay the full $18 million there goes 3 years of media Income. The pee2 at $55 million ($27.5 each) would take 4.5 years of media income and don’t forget Texas State. If TS exits the SBC by June 30 it is going to cost them 1 year of media income and as of July 1 the exit fees double to $10 million which is almost 2 years of media income.

That brings another question up - the P12 is desperate for an 8th football member. If I am Texas State I would demand the pee12 as it is now pay the exit fees and dangle some enticement starting with a full share and vote immediately as well as a travel compensation package. Otherwise, a move for them would be more for the appearance of being among the best of the G6. The AAC programs have already said no way since joining the pee12 means higher exit fees and won’t exceed the $11 million per year media income they currently get. Texas State is at $2 million media income per year now so a tripling of that looks good at a $4 million increase, but how much of that $4 million is left over each year since the distances for travel increase significantly.

The unknown is will any of this wrangling be worth a P level invite? What will happen with the P level and does the FBS fracture into 2 or 3 distinct levels. If it goes 3 distinct levels programs like Wyoming are susceptible to being considered level 3 and that is the concern I have for FCS as a potential viable option. I can easily see FBS at 2 levels with the best of the current P4 at level 1 and the lesser (like Vanderbilt, Stanford, Northwestern, Miss State, Kansas State, etc.) joining with the best of the G6 at level 2. This is positioning to prove you are better than the bottom of the P4. BSU has done a good job of that. Other than being in a desirable location such as UNLV, a program better be associated with success to have any chance of being considered for the top P level or even the envisioned best of the rest.

I could be wrong about it all, but I feel Wyoming is in a much bigger fight for some kind of inclusion relevance above the FCS in the next few years. Not trying to be negative about it either. It’s just the way things seem to be going. Being viewed as unviable is not an attribute. Right now winning and competing for the top spot in conference play is imperative to position for the future. Sub .500 programs drop in value when they don’t bring anything overly significant such as a population center or a continued history of success. Wyoming brings a generational history of sub .500 but not much else. Who cares about the 50’s and 60’s. Many of those people are already deceased. Almost all of current student athletes weren’t born the last time Wyoming won a basketball championship and most of the last football championship era is approaching social security age. It’s been that long.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

WYO has failed primarily because we couldn't get players which is mostly due to coaching. Coaches probably blame recruiting budgets and definitely blamed facilities. Facilities have largely been addressed and recruiting budgets have transitioned to revenue share/NIL

When Burman hired DC, he acknowledged that we needed a system which would mask talent discrepancies. He was right but wrong coach. When he hired Bohl he said we needed identity/culture. He was right but didn't have the coach to fully minimize talent discrepancies mainly on O. Burman's philosophies, when combined, were spot on, imo, but the execution/hires didn't hit both boxes.

Looking forward, we're just fine. The G6 all are shooting for the 1 playoff spot. Scheduling(especially OOC) and winning will determine that. Winning will determined by coaching and nil/revenue share. We can choose how competitive we want to be in the latter. Burman has a track record of not doing well on the former, so that has to be addressed. Should we choose/unable to not pursue nil/revenue share, we'll still be fairly competitive in the new MWC with the right coaching hires.

When the P4 splits and takes the playoff, the only thing that would drive the lower level to divide into 2 new levels would be money. There would have to be enough TV money that it would be worth splitting to concentrate that money at the top. However, doing so reduces market interest substantially. There isn't enough money or market share in the non-p4 and whoever they kick out to drive much. I'm convinced dma has little to do with it and is more about liklihood of marquee matchups that capture casual fans' interest nationwide. That typically involves 2 teams ranked highly. When the split happens, only the p4 rankings will matter to the casual fan and only the p4 national championship will matter to the casual fan. The money will be gone below that level so there will be little to drive further fragmentation.