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P12 - MWC

P

PorkerPoke

Well-known member
Time for this to be its own thread. It’s looking like the MWC will hold steadfast and UNLV won’t be going anywhere soon.

This is April 1 (no joke). The SDSU AD proclaimed in February in bragging to supporters that a TV deal would be in place by the end of March. It hasn’t happened - yet.

In late March the pee12 admitted (very quietly) that any expansion candidate they can potentially add won’t move the TV interest meter at all.

Today was one week since the poaching trial instigated by the pee2 was to begin. Why haven’t we heard anything? The only thing I have heard is despite the deferred start to the trial filed March 14, there is not been a mediator selected.

What has been discussed is that the pee12 wants a TV deal where the provider pushes the “P12 brand” like it has a sacred value whereas the TV venues desire the product to be the reason for any interest. Imagine a big national advertisement saying “Tune in Saturday at 11pm EDT for the 3-5 Colorado State Rams traveling to Logan to play the 2-6 Utah State Aggies”. That would for sure be worthy of a $15 million per team per year contract. At least the MWC is honest knowing that a 2-6 UTEP in Reno against a 2-6 Nevada team at 11pm EDT isn’t going to draw a TV audience that helps generate a $15 million per team contract. Look for no overly significant TV revenue difference.

The two things I am hearing:

1 - Theresa Gould is the ego problem leading the pee12. Not well liked. Gloria Navarez is the real deal as far as conference commissioners go.
2 - The MWC really does have the strongest hand in this matter and should be able to leverage anywhere from 50-75% of the $150 million the pee12 owes.

It’s coming into place that there is no money to entice the best remaining names East of the Mississippi. If no other potential name won’t move the TV meter it says UTSA and Texas State are not the cat’s meow. Besides, neither of those programs will find sending all of their sports teams to many of the pee12 locations cost effective which is the primary reason why Memphis and South Florida said no way.

Overall the best strength position would have been a merger, but apparently the pee2 under Theresa Gould felt they were superior under the P12 logo and demanded to have total control.

This is a continuation of the same mentality that led the P12 brand to think they can be the juggernaut it wasn’t in the P5.

The real outcome of all this is likely another dilution of the G league. There simply isn’t enough money to throw at a group of lower interest programs who sweat over how to pay the everyday bills as compared to lighting the cigar with a roll of 100’s like the big brands do.

I was with a group of lower level B1G fans today who bemoaned the lack of NIL funds they have at Minnesota and Iowa. They feel left behind by Ohio State and Michigan. I told them they were so many light years ahead of programs in conferences like the MWC.

Stay tuned. The newly revised P12 won’t fail, but will simply be another competitor in the pursuit of best of the to be ignored rest the big brands are striving to be rid of.
 
PorkerPoke said:
Time for this to be its own thread. It’s looking like the MWC will hold steadfast and UNLV won’t be going anywhere soon.

This is April 1 (no joke). The SDSU AD proclaimed in February in bragging to supporters that a TV deal would be in place by the end of March. It hasn’t happened - yet.

In late March the pee12 admitted (very quietly) that any expansion candidate they can potentially add won’t move the TV interest meter at all.

Today was one week since the poaching trial instigated by the pee2 was to begin. Why haven’t we heard anything? The only thing I have heard is despite the deferred start to the trial filed March 14, there is not been a mediator selected.

What has been discussed is that the pee12 wants a TV deal where the provider pushes the “P12 brand” like it has a sacred value whereas the TV venues desire the product to be the reason for any interest. Imagine a big national advertisement saying “Tune in Saturday at 11pm EDT for the 3-5 Colorado State Rams traveling to Logan to play the 2-6 Utah State Aggies”. That would for sure be worthy of a $15 million per team per year contract. At least the MWC is honest knowing that a 2-6 UTEP in Reno against a 2-6 Nevada team at 11pm EDT isn’t going to draw a TV audience that helps generate a $15 million per team contract. Look for no overly significant TV revenue difference.

The two things I am hearing:

1 - Theresa Gould is the ego problem leading the pee12. Not well liked. Gloria Navarez is the real deal as far as conference commissioners go.
2 - The MWC really does have the strongest hand in this matter and should be able to leverage anywhere from 50-75% of the $150 million the pee12 owes.

It’s coming into place that there is no money to entice the best remaining names East of the Mississippi. If no other potential name won’t move the TV meter it says UTSA and Texas State are not the cat’s meow. Besides, neither of those programs will find sending all of their sports teams to many of the pee12 locations cost effective which is the primary reason why Memphis and South Florida said no way.

Overall the best strength position would have been a merger, but apparently the pee2 under Theresa Gould felt they were superior under the P12 logo and demanded to have total control.

This is a continuation of the same mentality that led the P12 brand to think they can be the juggernaut it wasn’t in the P5.

The real outcome of all this is likely another dilution of the G league. There simply isn’t enough money to throw at a group of lower interest programs who sweat over how to pay the everyday bills as compared to lighting the cigar with a roll of 100’s like the big brands do.

I was with a group of lower level B1G fans today who bemoaned the lack of NIL funds they have at Minnesota and Iowa. They feel left behind by Ohio State and Michigan. I told them they were so many light years ahead of programs in conferences like the MWC.

Stay tuned. The newly revised P12 won’t fail, but will simply be another competitor in the pursuit of best of the to be ignored rest the big brands are striving to be rid of.
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I hope, beyond hope, the pee fails miserably. It would be Justice for the ewes at goat u, the maggies, and the others who think they are superior. Their elitist attitudes need some humble adjustment. It would be comical if their TV deal amounts to less or the same as the MW. I hope it all blows up in their faces.
 
Will we see another instance of the conference blowing up after Boise and SDSU jumped to it, a la the Big East?
 
Bryoming said:
Will we see another instance of the conference blowing up after Boise and SDSU jumped to it, a la the Big East?
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Very unlikely.

The PAC has a viable conference in it's current structure. They just vastly overestimated what they are worth.

They are preoccupied with this idea that the "PAC brand" is inherently valuable and that it shouldn't matter what teams comprise the PAC conference as long as the name is used. It's a bizarre take on things that I've never truly understood. They are starting to find out that potential TV partners don't agree with their belief that the PAC name holds significant value.
 
Itsux2beaewe said:
I hope, beyond hope, the pee fails miserably. It would be Justice for the ewes at goat u, the maggies, and the others who think they are superior. Their elitist attitudes need some humble adjustment. It would be comical if their TV deal amounts to less or the same as the MW. I hope it all blows up in their faces.
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It would be comical as hell but truth of the matter is if we think that the PAC isn't going to get nearly what they think they are going to get (which is correct), we need to be honest with ourselves that our new deal is hopefully the same and probably most likely less that what we are getting now. I just don't see how it won't be significantly less after losing 5 of the conference's 6 most valuable football properties and replacing them with UTEP and NIU. Basketball only additions by both conferences be damned.
 
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This hilarity is that OSU and WSU are, in reality, dragging down the likes of BSU and SDSU. They have history and legacy as P5, but that is all they have. They stink in football. They are horrible in basketball. My guess is that they would come in around the middle bottom of the MW in both revenue sports. The alchemy that the PAC residue and MW traitors have engaged to forge a "P5-esque" conference is laughable. Unfortunately, the comment about the real outcome only being further dilution of the G league is spot on. Together, we could have leveraged the market to get at least a respectable deal. Apart, we are both broken down leagues that don't have any weight in negotiations with the TV houses.
 
Bryoming said:
I mean, until they bring on another FBS football school they don't have a viable conference...
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That's true, but they will get another football school.

I know Texas State is a popular choice, but I have a feeling it is going to be North Texas...which would be quite underwhelming.

Also a quick reminder that Sawvel and UW got blasted by UNT 44-17 last year. The same UNT team that went on to go 3-5 and finish in 9th place in the American Conference. I'm still so disappointed that Sawvel remains our coach.
 
TheRealUW said:
That's true, but they will get another football school.

I know Texas State is a popular choice, but I have a feeling it is going to be North Texas...which would be quite underwhelming.

Also a quick reminder that Sawvel and UW got blasted by UNT 44-17 last year. The same UNT team that went on to go 3-5 and finish in 9th place in the American Conference. I'm still so disappointed that Sawvel remains our coach.
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The AAC AD’s just approved direct distribution of ncaa basketball credits today as a reward for success. The pee12 takes care of OSU and WSU first. UNT has one less incentive to have added travel expenses. The Memphis AD is applauding the move by the AAC which is a possible indication the pee12 is completely out of the picture.

The AAC already has the TV revenue that the pee12 hopes to get.

The only “positive” media coverage I can find pushing the pee12 potential media deal is Wilner and Canzano who are homers for the pee12 and they are claiming it will happen in the next couple of weeks. These guys are talking the pee12 pushing a “creative scheduling” model of playing anytime and anywhere TV says including games like the MAC does in November on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. That kinda says they are desperate to prostitute their programs to TV to maximize potential income in spite of the fan base.

FWIW - I have a feeling the AAC is off the radar for the pee12. The remaining cheap option is the Sun Belt and Texas State. But, unless Texas State would see a substantial increase in revenue, it would probably cost a few million a year more for moving all sports offsetting any gain.

This is all potentially good news for the MWC cutting the pee12 a settlement deal at a higher percentage than lower and gaining more funds for the members who stayed.
 
All things considered, I wish they could have combined all of these teams into one conference with two divisions. Now that the lines have been drawn in the sand, this seems out of the question. I suspect teams defecting to the PAC-2 are probably feeling remorse (although they will never admit it).

There are reportedly issues with choosing a mediator which further speaks to growing contention on both sides. It is a shame because this could have been avoided and benefited all universities involved. Greed is the underlying theme and as the saying goes, “Nothing gold can stay.”
 
That’s what I’m hearing Bear Claw and it keeps circling back to pee12 commissioner Theresa Gould and the two remnants being total dictators about everything. It’s like they dangled the big time carrot in front of the traitors that they were going to get elevated to super status.

The next big key date is April 7 when the House settlement is completed. Then the potential money situation will become clearer.

Stayed tuned until next week to see if it moves anything forward in the mwc/pee12 issue.
 
PorkerPoke said:
That’s what I’m hearing Bear Claw and it keeps circling back to pee12 commissioner Theresa Gould and the two remnants being total dictators about everything. It’s like they dangled the big time carrot in front of the traitors that they were going to get elevated to super status.

The next big key date is April 7 when the House settlement is completed. Then the potential money situation will become clearer.

Stayed tuned until next week to see if it moves anything forward in the mwc/pee12 issue.
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Appreciate the updates, Porker!
 
Bear Claw said:
All things considered, I wish they could have combined all of these teams into one conference with two divisions. Now that the lines have been drawn in the sand, this seems out of the question. I suspect teams defecting to the PAC-2 are probably feeling remorse (although they will never admit it).

There are reportedly issues with choosing a mediator which further speaks to growing contention on both sides. It is a shame because this could have been avoided and benefited all universities involved. Greed is the underlying theme and as the saying goes, “Nothing gold can stay.”
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The art of negotiation has been lost on a lot of people.

I've participated in a fair number of business negotiations over the past 20 years. There has definitely been a shift in the last 5 years. Way more people coming in looking to "win" as opposed to striking a fair deal for all involved. They all think they have the upper hand and often make silly demands just to make sure its clear to everyone involved that they "won" and you "lost". Compromise be damned! Sometimes they come out ahead. Most of the time they don't.
 
Hark - Canzano and Wilner just addressed the lack of a Pea12 (happy JWY?) media rights deal and are saying they expect something in the next 3-4 weeks.

A former media consultant named potential vendors as TNT, CW and maybe a new version of ESPN. The problem is available times and market saturation. Still expects a $8-11 million deal is obtainable but also said that the market isn’t spectacular. It was suggested it might be beneficial to take less distribution $$ and promote being the best G league with maximum exposure versus a higher payout hidden behind a paywall competing for prime time. Exposure is critical. It was pointed out that because OSU and WSU are taking a premium share and with pending CFP changes it could be a friction issue with the MWC traitors.

Gonzaga is reportedly a full share member for basketball whereas any new member additions are likely to be a partial share member. Not sure what the traitors will get. Overall there is not expected to be a significant increase in the value of basketball due to the saturation of games as football is by far the cash source. The basketball only programs won’t hurt the media deal but don’t necessarily enhance it.

In other news Sacramento State is filing to go FBS as an independent and would be eligible by 2027 if it goes through. The Pea12 expansion discussion still focused heavily on AAC teams along with Texas State. It was even mentioned a program like Texas State could be a no share to start just to get included in the promised land.

Could the MWC be considering adding Sac State since the Pea12 has repeatedly expressed disinterest? The comment was that the MWC has had dialogue with Sac State.
 
PorkerPoke said:
Hark - Canzano and Wilner just addressed the lack of a Pea12 (happy JWY?) media rights deal and are saying they expect something in the next 3-4 weeks.

A former media consultant named potential vendors as TNT, CW and maybe a new version of ESPN. The problem is available times and market saturation. Still expects a $8-11 million deal is obtainable but also said that the market isn’t spectacular. It was suggested it might be beneficial to take less distribution $$ and promote being the best G league with maximum exposure versus a higher payout hidden behind a paywall competing for prime time. Exposure is critical. It was pointed out that because OSU and WSU are taking a premium share and with pending CFP changes it could be a friction issue with the MWC traitors.

Gonzaga is reportedly a full share member for basketball whereas any new member additions are likely to be a partial share member. Not sure what the traitors will get. Overall there is not expected to be a significant increase in the value of basketball due to the saturation of games as football is by far the cash source. The basketball only programs won’t hurt the media deal but don’t necessarily enhance it.

In other news Sacramento State is filing to go FBS as an independent and would be eligible by 2027 if it goes through. The Pea12 expansion discussion still focused heavily on AAC teams along with Texas State. It was even mentioned a program like Texas State could be a no share to start just to get included in the promised land.

Could the MWC be considering adding Sac State since the Pea12 has repeatedly expressed disinterest? The comment was that the MWC has had dialogue with Sac State.
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Canzano is a clown. Since Oregon joined the Big 10, he has been scrambling as access cut off to the Ducks. Trying to salvage his career by pumping the Pac-whatever. Don't believe a word he or Wilner says.
 
Vancopoke said:
Canzano is a clown. Since Oregon joined the Big 10, he has been scrambling as access cut off to the Ducks. Trying to salvage his career by pumping the Pac-whatever. Don't believe a word he or Wilner says.
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Exactly. They are homers. I was just noting that all of a sudden they weren’t be so bullish on when the media deal will be done and now the bottom range is getting to be a lower number. When they start talking about a sun belt team playing for free for a year just to join it makes you wonder. I also detected a different tone of the potential money owed the MWC of not being so bold that the MWC will implode and suddenly a bunch of teams like UNLV will become available.

What I do hear consistently from various outlets is the thought that the potential money a merger would have brought is more likely to be split between the two conferences due to competition for time slots but with nothing significant in name brand to garner more interest than these programs already had in the MWC. This is the big media deal in terms of value.

For the most part everything is pure speculation at this point and those two clowns have the biggest opinion shifts surrounding them. That’s what most of this information is - opinions. I look for consistent patterns and the one thing that is most consistent is raiding the AAC is not an option which was a huge target for the Pea12.

In my opinion the only way an AAC program would consider is a big payday guarantee above the current AAC value with full rights equal to WSU and OSU. The allure of the next “P” level conference is not the reality that sucked the MWC traitors away otherwise Memphis and Tulane would’ve jumped long ago.

Never say never in this environment but there aren’t many cards to play with and money is the issue of which the piggy bank is down to coins now.

Nothing has to be in place until July 2026 so this can drag on for a while. That’s maybe why no mediator has been named yet. Guys like W & C need the attention to keep selling their opinions and will create speculation. You have to read between the lines.
 
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