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P12 - MWC

Came across this read which seems to have some reasonable analysis whether you like Dennis Dodd or not:

Future TV value

He also has a new write up on the House settlement.

Would not be surprised if the mediation process is in delay everything mode until the air becomes clearer to see where things are going. Likewise the TV packages for both the conferences.
 
That's true, but they will get another football school.

I know Texas State is a popular choice, but I have a feeling it is going to be North Texas...which would be quite underwhelming.

Also a quick reminder that Sawvel and UW got blasted by UNT 44-17 last year. The same UNT team that went on to go 3-5 and finish in 9th place in the American Conference. I'm still so disappointed that Sawvel remains our coach.
I’m not have fan of Sawhead but UW beat Washington State.
 
I find this comment interesting from Gould. Is she preparing the conference for a lower media rights value than they boasted?

“We’re not just looking for whoever is willing to pay the most dollars for our rights,” Gould told me late last year. “We’re looking for partnership. We need a media partner who wants to be part of our growth and what we’re doing to recreate the Pac-12.”
 
I find this comment interesting from Gould. Is she preparing the conference for a lower media rights value than they boasted?

“We’re not just looking for whoever is willing to pay the most dollars for our rights,” Gould told me late last year. “We’re looking for partnership. We need a media partner who wants to be part of our growth and what we’re doing to recreate the Pac-12.”
I think she is explaining why they will turn down a higher offer (probably ESPN) to stay away from Thursday games in favor of Saturday football games.

But yes - I don’t believe their media deal is going to ever make leaving the MWC like they did make sense.
 
The only one perpetually talking about this is Cazano and he is saying the 2025 TV will be announced within a week and it should be largely CW based. Absolutely nothing that hasn’t been out there for quite some time.

He also claims the 2026 tv deal should be announced within a month.

His position is the MWC is in a weak legal position and UNLV has been for the past month in negotiations with the pea12. The little thing he did drop was “maybe” with a negotiated settlement it could help pay their exit fees and while a risky move, it’s for the future.

His grounds for the weak legal position are based on the USU AD telling him last week that USU asked the pea12 which means they weren’t poached. Supposedly all the other traitors will claim they asked to join the pea12 on their own because the MWC was treating them like they deserved. Think about it - she had to say it that way because it’s about the money if the traitors can help the pea12 cause.

He was cheerleading that the MWC won’t be able to land the fees needed to honor the grant of rights meaning the pea12 and AAC could destroy the MWC.

He’s a tool for pushing the pea12 will destroy the MWC and then start on the AAC by taking Memphis because it is about the position for the future and every program of significance wants to be part of it.

Outside of that there is still silence in the media everywhere else except for the pro pea12 outlets that feature him and Wilner as writers.

He also claimed that a MWC football coach contacted him and said they hoped AFA and UNLV would leave the MWC as if he is a guru everyone calls.

About the only thing worth noting is supposedly the pea12 programs will be meeting next week. That may spur some information if accurate.
 
Canzano's opinion isn't worth the pixels you read it on. He's a shill for Oregon State that is still bitter that they got left behind.
 
The only one perpetually talking about this is Cazano and he is saying the 2025 TV will be announced within a week and it should be largely CW based. Absolutely nothing that hasn’t been out there for quite some time.

He also claims the 2026 tv deal should be announced within a month.

His position is the MWC is in a weak legal position and UNLV has been for the past month in negotiations with the pea12. The little thing he did drop was “maybe” with a negotiated settlement it could help pay their exit fees and while a risky move, it’s for the future.

His grounds for the weak legal position are based on the USU AD telling him last week that USU asked the pea12 which means they weren’t poached. Supposedly all the other traitors will claim they asked to join the pea12 on their own because the MWC was treating them like they deserved. Think about it - she had to say it that way because it’s about the money if the traitors can help the pea12 cause.

He was cheerleading that the MWC won’t be able to land the fees needed to honor the grant of rights meaning the pea12 and AAC could destroy the MWC.

He’s a tool for pushing the pea12 will destroy the MWC and then start on the AAC by taking Memphis because it is about the position for the future and every program of significance wants to be part of it.

Outside of that there is still silence in the media everywhere else except for the pro pea12 outlets that feature him and Wilner as writers.

He also claimed that a MWC football coach contacted him and said they hoped AFA and UNLV would leave the MWC as if he is a guru everyone calls.

About the only thing worth noting is supposedly the pea12 programs will be meeting next week. That may spur some information if accurate.
I’m presuming “discovery” will show thru emails and other communications if the claims are true. My belief is early on, the P approached the first schools to announce they were leaving. The Maggie’s, possibly did approach the Peeheads.
 
Canzano's opinion isn't worth the pixels you read it on. He's a shill for Oregon State that is still bitter that they got left behind.
Don't believe anything Canzano says. He is bitter that the Midwest schools in the Big Ten won't give him the time of day. He is stuck pumping dead programs like WSU and OSU for content. He and Wilner are clueless clowns.
 
I’m presuming “discovery” will show thru emails and other communications if the claims are true. My belief is early on, the P approached the first schools to announce they were leaving. The Maggie’s, possibly did approach the Peeheads.
Besides this potential tactic to reduce poaching fees, the bigger picture has to be considered. Look at the media articles from September 2024 and the word poached is freely used.

The best thing the pea2 could have done was convince 9 MWC programs to join. Those 9 programs could have dissolved the MWC and eliminated the poaching and exit fees.

But, the 2 remnants of the P12 were so greedy thinking they were going to cherry pick the MWC and AAC to get to an autonomous status (back in with the power 4) they have painted themselves into a corner of doing a bunch of stuff that while they might get a little higher TV deal it’s a potential legal cost issue that may negate long term any big gain. Don’t forget the AAC programs didn’t approach the pee2, so it is doubtful that the first 4 MWC traitors did so on their own.

If the TV deal is in the smaller number range of the reported $5-12 million and let’s say the settlement is 60% of $155 million, it would still cost them an average of about $11 million per program which over the next expected TV contract to 2031 is a loss of about $1.75 million of the increase per year.

I might be wrong, but this has all the makings of greed potentially putting this split into a near revenue neutral maneuver. One fact is the only highly viable programs west of the Mississippi are in the MWC or Texas State. The costs for Texas State would explode and if the TV isn’t closer to the $10 million and is more in the $5-7 million range, Texas State might be better served to stay in the Sun Belt unless they foolishly think the pee12 is a ticket to the B12.

That is why I think the pea12 needs UNLV but then there is even more legal wrangling to resolve and despite the hot air coming from the pea12 media pundits, I still feel the MWC holds leverage. The MWC exit fees still hold which is another cost for the pee12 to get to 8 if they look at the MWC.

Stay tuned, July 1 is only 65 days away and some things have to happen by then because the exit fee doubles if any MWC program leaves to make the pea12 an 8 football team conference.
 
Assuming the rest of the mwc are being honest and are committed to sticking together, there's no way they should accept a full merger under the pac banner with wsu and osu calling the shots. In all honesty, the current rendition of the mwc is better than being in bed with bsu, suds, usu, csu, wsu, and osu. Not stronger but more stable.

At this point, I hope the MWC holds and the pac adds sac state.
 
Assuming the rest of the mwc are being honest and are committed to sticking together, there's no way they should accept a full merger under the pac banner with wsu and osu calling the shots. In all honesty, the current rendition of the mwc is better than being in bed with bsu, suds, usu, csu, wsu, and osu. Not stronger but more stable.

At this point, I hope the MWC holds and the pac adds sac state.
It’s been a silent issue for the most part, but the traitor teams are subject to kissing the OSU/WSU ass in this deal. I see it mentioned on occasion with speculative 8th members maybe not getting a full share and having to kiss the gumball machine ring.

What I do hear constantly is no matter who is added, it doesn’t do a thing to enhance the TV value. The only added value at this point would be for a former P12 team like Cal to come begging back. That won’t happen until the super league is formed when all of this gets modified anyway. The MWC has as good a chance of being in the CFP as any other G league team (at least on paper) until the SEC and B1G make the next move. Dabo Sweeney was just saying last week he expects it to happen sooner than later once the power players decide the rules for participation in whatever levels they decide there will be.
 
Besides this potential tactic to reduce poaching fees, the bigger picture has to be considered. Look at the media articles from September 2024 and the word poached is freely used.

The best thing the pea2 could have done was convince 9 MWC programs to join. Those 9 programs could have dissolved the MWC and eliminated the poaching and exit fees.

But, the 2 remnants of the P12 were so greedy thinking they were going to cherry pick the MWC and AAC to get to an autonomous status (back in with the power 4) they have painted themselves into a corner of doing a bunch of stuff that while they might get a little higher TV deal it’s a potential legal cost issue that may negate long term any big gain. Don’t forget the AAC programs didn’t approach the pee2, so it is doubtful that the first 4 MWC traitors did so on their own.

If the TV deal is in the smaller number range of the reported $5-12 million and let’s say the settlement is 60% of $155 million, it would still cost them an average of about $11 million per program which over the next expected TV contract to 2031 is a loss of about $1.75 million of the increase per year.

I might be wrong, but this has all the makings of greed potentially putting this split into a near revenue neutral maneuver. One fact is the only highly viable programs west of the Mississippi are in the MWC or Texas State. The costs for Texas State would explode and if the TV isn’t closer to the $10 million and is more in the $5-7 million range, Texas State might be better served to stay in the Sun Belt unless they foolishly think the pee12 is a ticket to the B12.

That is why I think the pea12 needs UNLV but then there is even more legal wrangling to resolve and despite the hot air coming from the pea12 media pundits, I still feel the MWC holds leverage. The MWC exit fees still hold which is another cost for the pee12 to get to 8 if they look at the MWC.

Stay tuned, July 1 is only 65 days away and some things have to happen by then because the exit fee doubles if any MWC program leaves to make the pea12 an 8 football team conference.

UNLV (along with all the MW schools) signed a GOR with the conference.

And from what I hear, there's a hefty penalty for the 5 to go back to the Mountain West (although, if there's not 8 teams, and this, not an official conference, I don't know if they can enforce that).
 
Excellent conversation and commentary for a bunch of "outsiders." Canzano was totally wrong on everything when the original Pac12 disolved. Kept reporting that a television deal would be signed which would save the conference. He used to be a very good columnist / reporter. I'm not sure why he turned so into a minion for Oregon State.
 
Pac2 signed their 2025 media deal. I'm sure financials will come out but I didn't see them readily available? Disclaimer: If I'm wrong that the financials aren't readily available, and I certainty could be because I didn't look hard, please disregard the next comment.

If and big if the financials aren't readily available, then that means they suck. wsu and osu would blow up the media if the numbers are big. Again, straight speculation on limited information on my part.
 
Pac2 signed their 2025 media deal. I'm sure financials will come out but I didn't see them readily available? Disclaimer: If I'm wrong that the financials aren't readily available, and I certainty could be because I didn't look hard, please disregard the next comment.

If and big if the financials aren't readily available, then that means they suck. wsu and osu would blow up the media if the numbers are big. Again, straight speculation on limited information on my part.
No terms released yet. They will need to be near $1,000,000 per game to make the $12 million per team rate they sold the traitors on.

But wait - it’s not the $$$ that is important, it is the exposure on a variety of platforms.
 
No terms released yet. They will need to be near $1,000,000 per game to make the $12 million per team rate they sold the traitors on.

But wait - it’s not the $$$ that is important, it is the exposure on a variety of platforms.
This is what's key because the media partners now are likely a preview of what's coming.

If wsu and osu didn't command a large price tag now, then adding mwc teams to them won't all of a sudden make all the teams worth more. If the mwc teams were worth a lot, the mwc's current contract would be bigger. I think this is a sign that the pac media deal isn't going to be where they want from a financial perspective.

Not releasing the financials tells you all you need to know about the financials. They sold out cheap and pivoted to the exposure narrative.
 

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