The good faith merger clause is going to be an issue for the pac. Why not simply merge and avoid the fees? There must be more value to the pac and all the schools that left than the contractual fees. If their TV deal is worth 4 mill per team per year more than ours, that's 36 mill per year x 5 year contract = 180 mill loss. I don't think the numbers are that much out of line.
The play here is to shift as much of the poaching/exit fee money to the traitors as possible. It's a lot easier to try to shake states down for money to cover the fees for the universities in their state than it is to shake them down to pay money to a conference entity. I don't think osu and certainly not wsu have the money to cover 55 mill.
I'm thinking 35% chance all in favor of MWC.
45% chance of settlement in 100 to 110 mill range.
20% chance all in pac favor but still get 80 mill or so exit penalty.
0% chance the pac gets away AND the traitors don't have pay or even greatly reduced rate for traitors. The traitors won't get out of exit fees or even a substantial reduction.
These are the numbers:
$61 million and the GOR for the 7 remaining members will be satisfied. 24.5% to UNLV and AFA, 11..5% to UW, SJSU, UNM, NEV and 5% to Hawaii.
$82 million pays an additional amount to all 7 members on the same scale as the first $61 million.
Any additional amount above $82 million pays 15.83% to the 6 remaining MWC members with 5% to Hawaii.
These figures are based on the total value of the separate fees/penalties. Breaking down the $145 million:
42% - $61 million
56.6% - $82 milliion
62% - $90 million (100% exit fees collected)
IMO is it’s a huge win for the MWC if they get anything over 60 percent of the $145 total.
I heard somewhere that in mediation the pee12 was adamant about being under 40% in exit fees and nothing for the poaching (to make it costly for the MWC to fulfill the GOR as a play to get UNLV released). The MWC had been around the 70-80% (over $100 million total) range and when the pee12 wouldn’t budge to an agreeable number the MWC said it’s back to 100%.
Nothing would be better than the pee12 having to pay 70% or about $101 million total.
If the pee12 would have agreed to at least 60% plus something for attorney fees I am thinking this would have been a done deal in mediation. OSU and WSU received $65 million from the original P12 in damages for being left out plus they will have received an additional $100 million from the 2 years that remained on the Rose Bowl. Net effect they profited a total of $165 million being left out. I can’t look at it in any other way except that the pee12 is trying to eliminate the MWC as a viable competitor in the west.
