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Most Accurate Bracketology Projections

seattlecowboy

seattlecowboy

Well-known member
For reference :

ESPN Joe Lunardi is ranked 55th and CBS Jerry Palm is ranked 100th on this list so not near as accurate as the guys listed below.



Top 10 last 5 years and been doing it at least 3 years +

1. Crazy Sports Dude: Wyoming 11 seed Updated March 11th

2. Delphi :Last update March 6th

3. Heat Check : Wyoming 11 seed update March 11th

4. Weber: updated March 9th

5. Boiling the Bracket: Wyoming 10 seed March 11th

6. Pulse : Wyoming 11 seed update March 12th

7. One Man : Wyoming 11 seed update March 11th

8. 1-3-1 : Wyoming 11 seed update March 11th

9. Bracket : Wyoming 11 seed update March 12th

10. DII Ratings: Wyoming 12 seed play in game March 12th

Top 4 of newbies doing it 1 to 2 years:

1. From the Rafters: Wyoming 11 seed Update March 12th

2. College Sports Enthusiasts: Wyoming 11 seed update March 11th

3. 801 Bracketologists : Wyoming 11 seed update March 11th

4. Let’s Talk Sports : Wyoming 11 seed update March 11th


Based on the most accurate at Bracketology over the last few years the consensus is that Wyoming will be an 11 seed. Will not have to play in a play in game even after the loss to Boise St. and counting bid stealers and all that Mumbo jumbo.

Only one of them has Wyoming as a 12 seed having to play in a play in game.

So you can all take solace in the fact that the best of the best of bracketology have us in.

The main reason is because of Wyoming’s quad 1 and quad 2 combined record of 11-6.

If it only went by metrics BPI and Sagarin would keep us out. Combined metrics Wyoming will have the worst average of all the at large teams. So the quad 1 and quad 2 record saved our butts.
 
Delphi has been the most accurate average bracket over several years. Has WY as a 10 seed. Updated today.

Heat check that supports the number 2 rated bracktologist has WY as a last 4 bye. They have us as an 11. So looking positive!!! *

Post was corrected *
 
Updated with the ones that updated today. Wyoming still holding at mainly 11 seed with two 10 seeds and one play in game. All have Wyoming in.

seattlecowboy said:
For reference :

ESPN Joe Lunardi is ranked 55th and CBS Jerry Palm is ranked 100th on this list so not near as accurate as the guys listed below.



Top 10 last 5 years and been doing it at least 3 years +

1. Crazy Sports Dude: Wyoming 11 seed Updated March 12th

2. Delphi : Wyoming 10 seed Updated March 12th

3. Heat Check : Wyoming 11 seed update March 12th

4. Weber: updated March 9th

5. Boiling the Bracket: Wyoming 11 seed March 12th

6. Pulse : Wyoming 11 seed update March 12th

7. One Man : Wyoming 11 seed update March 11th

8. 1-3-1 : Wyoming 11 seed update March 12th

9. Bracket : Wyoming 11 seed update March 12th

10. DII Ratings: Wyoming 12 seed play in game March 12th

Top 4 of newbies doing it 1 to 2 years:

1. From the Rafters: Wyoming 11 seed Update March 12th

2. College Sports Enthusiasts: Wyoming 11 seed update March 11th

3. 801 Bracketologists : Wyoming 11 seed update March 12th

4. Let’s Talk Sports : Wyoming 11 seed update March 11th


Based on the most accurate at Bracketology over the last few years the consensus is that Wyoming will be an 11 seed. Will not have to play in a play in game even after the loss to Boise St. and counting bid stealers and all that Mumbo jumbo.

Only one of them has Wyoming as a 12 seed having to play in a play in game.

So you can all take solace in the fact that the best of the best of bracketology have us in.

The main reason is because of Wyoming’s quad 1 and quad 2 combined record of 11-6.

If it only went by metrics BPI and Sagarin would keep us out. Combined metrics Wyoming will have the worst average of all the at large teams. So the quad 1 and quad 2 record saved our butts.
Click to expand...
 
OrediggerPoke said:
Both Indiana and A&M winning.
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That doesn’t matter. At least according to all of these guys. It is already accounted for. Indiana is already in most all of these for one thing.

Wyoming isn’t the last team in. Texas A&M will be knocking someone else out.
 
WyomingAgJ said:
A&m wins but Indiana ended up losing by 3. Would be helpful if Virginia tech loses to Duke later too.
Click to expand...

Again doesn’t matter. If all of these had Wyoming as the last team in, then it might matter but some of these already have Va. Tech in and Again, Wyoming isn’t close to being the last team in according to all of these. These have been the most accurate over the years.
 
seattlecowboy said:
WyomingAgJ said:
A&m wins but Indiana ended up losing by 3. Would be helpful if Virginia tech loses to Duke later too.
Click to expand...

Again doesn’t matter. If all of these had Wyoming as the last team in, then it might matter but some of these already have Va. Tech in and Again, Wyoming isn’t close to being the last team in according to all of these. These have been the most accurate over the years.
Click to expand...

I agree I think we are safe but there was one scenario that I was still worried on. Based on bracketmatrix.com we are averaging out to an 11 seed which is safe. But behind us in the averages from that site were Indiana, Texas a&m, Dayton, Smu, and Virginia tech all who were still playing and could win their conference tournaments. If you put 5 more unexpected autobids in we are very likely to slide down and the decision would be between us and likely Notre Dame, rutgers, Oklahoma, wake Forest, and Xavier for the final couple spots (who are all behind us right now but you never know if the committee wants a big east/ACC/big12 team instead of mw).

But luckily Indiana lost, Dayton lost, and likely/hopefully Virginia tech loses as well. So there won't be 5 unexpected autobids at most maybe 3 and likely only 1 or 0. So I agree we are safe, but I would not have been so confident if going into tomorrow all 5 of those teams behind us were playing for autobids it might have still been more borderline.
 
WyomingAgJ said:
seattlecowboy said:
WyomingAgJ said:
A&m wins but Indiana ended up losing by 3. Would be helpful if Virginia tech loses to Duke later too.
Click to expand...

Again doesn’t matter. If all of these had Wyoming as the last team in, then it might matter but some of these already have Va. Tech in and Again, Wyoming isn’t close to being the last team in according to all of these. These have been the most accurate over the years.
Click to expand...

I agree I think we are safe but there was one scenario that I was still worried on. Based on bracketmatrix.com we are averaging out to an 11 seed which is safe. But behind us in the averages from that site were Indiana, Texas a&m, Dayton, Smu, and Virginia tech all who were still playing and could win their conference tournaments. If you put 5 more unexpected autobids in we are very likely to slide down and the decision would be between us and likely Notre Dame, rutgers, Oklahoma, wake Forest, and Xavier for the final couple spots (who are all behind us right now but you never know if the committee wants a big east/ACC/big12 team instead of mw).

But luckily Indiana lost, Dayton lost, and likely/hopefully Virginia tech loses as well. So there won't be 5 unexpected autobids at most maybe 3 and likely only 1 or 0. So I agree we are safe, but I would not have been so confident if going into tomorrow all 5 of those teams behind us were playing for autobids it might have still been more borderline.
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Yeah. I think Indiana is in anyways.

Last year the top 41 teams in NET made it in. So if they have anything close to that this year Virginia Tech will be in as they are 30 in NET. Oklahoma is 39 if they stay there after their loss today. Indiana is 38.

Those are about all of them in the top 41 that were on the bubble. If you account for auto bids from the top 41 in NET, it accounts for I believe 8 teams, which opens up 8 at large bids.

The bubble is so weak this year that it would be pretty hard for Wyoming not to get in with a 11-6 quad 1 and 2 record.
 
SMU losing would be good just to knock another team on the bubble line off to the wrong side most likely.

We want Boise St to win as it will keep them in the top 30 and keep a quad 1 win for us. If they lose they could drop below 30 and move it to a quad 2.
 
seattlecowboy said:
SMU losing would be good just to knock another team on the bubble line off to the wrong side most likely.

We want Boise St to win as it will keep them in the top 30 and keep a quad 1 win for us. If they lose they could drop below 30 and move it to a quad 2.
Click to expand...

I don't follow the bracket methodology at all. Could you explain why Colorado is not even being discussed as a bubble team? They finished 4th in the Pac 12 and beat Arizona. They beat Stanford twice, a team we lost to. I watched them play Arizona very tough again last night. It seems strange that we're in and they aren't even being discussed.
 
bladerunnr said:
seattlecowboy said:
SMU losing would be good just to knock another team on the bubble line off to the wrong side most likely.

We want Boise St to win as it will keep them in the top 30 and keep a quad 1 win for us. If they lose they could drop below 30 and move it to a quad 2.
Click to expand...

I don't follow the bracket methodology at all. Could you explain why Colorado is not even being discussed as a bubble team? They finished 4th in the Pac 12 and beat Arizona. They beat Stanford twice, a team we lost to. I watched them play Arizona very tough again last night. It seems strange that we're in and they aren't even being discussed.
Click to expand...

Sure.

Colorado is
#70 in Kenpom
#70 in NET

Their Out of conference Strength of Schedule was 328th.

Committee hates that. If you have that bad of OOC SOS you usually won’t be in consideration with 10 losses or more.

This is also why I think Wake Forest is out. #343 OOC SOS.

Their Away and neutral record is 9-6, so decent

They won only 1 quad one game which was the Arizona game at home. They were 1-6 against quad 1 teams.

They had 3 bad losses to quad 3 teams.

The game last night against Arizona . Kerr Krissa wasn’t playing for Arizona (starting Pg) got hurt game before.

Conclusion:

So the main reasons they aren’t in consideration is because of a really bad OOC SOS with 11 total losses on their resume. 3 bad losses and only 1 quad 1 win. They will be NIT bound most likely.


On the other hand Wyoming is 25-8 with a OOC SOS of 168.

Wyoming is 48 in NET and 58 in Kenpom.

Wyoming has 4 quad 1 wins and is 11-6 overall in quad 1 and 2 wins.

Wyomings away and neutral court record is 11-7.

Wyoming does have 2 bad losses but the quad 1 and 2 record makes up for that by quite a bit.
 
Thanks SeattleCowboy! That makes sense from a methodology standpoint. If you listened to Bill Walton last night, you'd have thought CU was an absolute lock for the tournament. He does tend to go overboard in his cheerleading of the "Conference of Champions".
 
bladerunnr said:
Thanks SeattleCowboy! That makes sense from a methodology standpoint. If you listened to Bill Walton last night, you'd have thought CU was an absolute lock for the tournament. He does tend to go overboard in his cheerleading of the "Conference of Champions".
Click to expand...

Yeah Bill Walton is funny. A couple weeks ago he was saying Arizona St should be in and the PAC 12 should get 7 or 8 teams in. Not sure if he was just being funny on purpose or trolling people or what.
 
Two games that are huge tomorrow.

Wyoming wants Tennessee to beat Texas A&M.

Wyoming wants Davidson to beat Richmond.

If both of those upsets were to happen then that would be 3 bids stolen for sure now that Virginia Tech got in.

Which means Wyoming most likely goes to the play in games and slim chance they would get left out if committee did some type of weird deal. Not sure what exactly.

If Davidson wins and Tennessee wins I’m confident Wyoming avoids the play in game.
 
Dumnardi say Poke could be out if Richmond wins.


quote=seattlecowboy post_id=259569 time=1647144378 user_id=174]
Two games that are huge tomorrow.

Wyoming wants Tennessee to beat Texas A&M.

Wyoming wants Davidson to beat Richmond.

If both of those upsets were to happen then that would be 3 bids stolen for sure now that Virginia Tech got in.

Which means Wyoming most likely goes to the play in games and slim chance they would get left out if committee did some type of weird deal. Not sure what exactly.

If Davidson wins and Tennessee wins I’m confident Wyoming avoids the play in game.
[/quote]
 
jwy_poke said:
Dumnardi say Poke could be out if Richmond wins.


quote=seattlecowboy post_id=259569 time=1647144378 user_id=174]
Two games that are huge tomorrow.

Wyoming wants Tennessee to beat Texas A&M.

Wyoming wants Davidson to beat Richmond.

If both of those upsets were to happen then that would be 3 bids stolen for sure now that Virginia Tech got in.

Which means Wyoming most likely goes to the play in games and slim chance they would get left out if committee did some type of weird deal. Not sure what exactly.

If Davidson wins and Tennessee wins I’m confident Wyoming avoids the play in game.
Click to expand...
[/quote]

Well again Lunardi or Dumnardi as you call him, is ranked all the way down at #55 in accuracy for Bracketology. Not very good.

Think at this point Wyoming is still within the last 4 byes area and will get an 11 seed.

Think the Virginia Tech win knocked out Xavier , Wake Forest or Rutgers for sure. Maybe Notre Dame.

Texas A&M may have already knocked one of them out as well.

Definitely want Tennessee and Davidson to win tomorrow.
 
Dropped to Net 50 today and bracket matrix consensus projections now have us dropped to a 12 seed. We are very lucky Smu and Dayton lost yesterday. It looks to me like it's borderline now. Texas A&m I think is easily in above us now even though their bracket matrix projection is a spot behind us as their net is up to 42 and they are on a 8 or 9 game win streak.

So I think we barely hanging on to a last non-playin game spot or maybe in the play-in at this point
 
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