If true, it's completely laughable

[r12]

Long-term only the p5 label and access to the new playoff matter. More than likely this is just chair shuffling until the split happens. Once the split occurs, only the top level will have tv money.

The current situation only matters for a few more years anyway.

 

[Wyokie]

I unlocked that thread that got moved to the political forum. Just be civil with each other. If another fight starts up in that thread, I will lock the thread
permanently.

 

[PokeTransplant]

With Colorado headed back to the B12, I personally think that Utah would be the next shoe to drop from the P12. Not sure about state politics in WA OR and AZ, but would there be appetite for the UofX to leave the XstateU behind?
For argument sake, let's say Utah gets the next B12 golden ticket. That leave UA/ASU, UO/OSU, UW/WSU along with Cal and Stanford. From a geographic perspective, it makes sense to back fill with SDSU, FSU, SJSU, and UNLV. to get back to 12. If 10 is the number, then SDSU and FSU would be the logical choices.
So, what happens to the MWC if the new P12 takes 4 out of the MWC leaving AFA, BSU, CSU, Nev, UW, USU, Haw, and UNM. Does Hawaii and BSU go independent at that point leaving the front range schools (with Nevada) to backfill? (Montana schools, ND schools, SD schools, raid into Texas?)
What if only SDSU and FSU bail? Does Hawaii and BSU still bail and does the scenario change for backfill?

Food for thought. I think the Pokes will end up with a decent situation regardless. May not be what a lot of us want, but the University will still compete at the D1 level regardless of what that ends up being...

 

[Wyokie]

Arizona will be the next to go, then it'll be Utah and Arizona State. All three go as a group.

 

[flyfishwyo]

All right.

Current PAC is Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Washington State, Oregon State.

The 20 mil/year was with Colorado in the fold and if the PAC loses any more schools then the 20 mil will be significantly diminished. Keep in mind there is a steep 34 mil MWC exit fee for next year and 17 mil with a year's notice.

I think Arizona is gone to the Big XII as is rumored, and I think Washington and Oregon will go to the B1G. When that happens, I believe Utah and Arizona State will also go to the Big XII. Stanford can't abide sharing a conference with supposedly inferior schools and will go independent. This will leave Washington State, Oregon State and Cal remaining in the PAC in dire straits. I do not think the PAC can survive this, as they will not be able to add enough MWC schools to have a conference for next year or the year after due to the large MWC buyout and the diminished TV deal which a severely water-down PAC would command, and those three will be absorbed into the MWC. Cal may even drop football if forced to do this.

This is what I want to happen with my Brown and Gold colored glasses.

I've been saying EXACTLY the same thing for a year now. Without the Four Corners schools, Oregon, and Washington, there isn't any media value left in the conference. Boise, SDSU, and any other combination of AAC or MW teams won't make up that value. The PAC is almost dead.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

All right.

Current PAC is Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Washington State, Oregon State.

The 20 mil/year was with Colorado in the fold and if the PAC loses any more schools then the 20 mil will be significantly diminished. Keep in mind there is a steep 34 mil MWC exit fee for next year and 17 mil with a year's notice.

I think Arizona is gone to the Big XII as is rumored, and I think Washington and Oregon will go to the B1G. When that happens, I believe Utah and Arizona State will also go to the Big XII. Stanford can't abide sharing a conference with supposedly inferior schools and will go independent. This will leave Washington State, Oregon State and Cal remaining in the PAC in dire straits. I do not think the PAC can survive this, as they will not be able to add enough MWC schools to have a conference for next year or the year after due to the large MWC buyout and the diminished TV deal which a severely water-down PAC would command, and those three will be absorbed into the MWC. Cal may even drop football if forced to do this.

This is what I want to happen with my Brown and Gold colored glasses.

I've been saying EXACTLY the same thing for a year now. Without the Four Corners schools, Oregon, and Washington, there isn't any media value left in the conference. Boise, SDSU, and any other combination of AAC or MW teams won't make up that value. The PAC is almost dead.

The PAC will absolutely survive. It won’t be the same conference it once was but don’t fool yourself. The only question is how many MWC teams does the PAC take.

 

[McPeachy]

I've been saying EXACTLY the same thing for a year now. Without the Four Corners schools, Oregon, and Washington, there isn't any media value left in the conference. Boise, SDSU, and any other combination of AAC or MW teams won't make up that value. The PAC is almost dead.

The PAC will absolutely survive. It won’t be the same conference it once was but don’t fool yourself. The only question is how many MWC teams does the PAC take.

If the "have nots" are smart (or inspired), they would begin lobbying for an all or nothing deal with the PAC. Your guess is as good as mine with who those "have nots" are, but I am thinking they would be WYO, SJSU, Hawaii, Nevada, Utard State, New Mexico, and maybe CSU or AFA...

 

[LanderPoke]

I've been saying EXACTLY the same thing for a year now. Without the Four Corners schools, Oregon, and Washington, there isn't any media value left in the conference. Boise, SDSU, and any other combination of AAC or MW teams won't make up that value. The PAC is almost dead.

The PAC will absolutely survive. It won’t be the same conference it once was but don’t fool yourself. The only question is how many MWC teams does the PAC take.

If the PAC is down to its three weakest schools, and not enough MWC schools can afford the buyout how is that going to work

 

[OrediggerPoke]

The PAC will absolutely survive. It won’t be the same conference it once was but don’t fool yourself. The only question is how many MWC teams does the PAC take.

If the PAC is down to its three weakest schools, and not enough MWC schools can afford the buyout how is that going to work

The PAC down to 3-4 schools is worst case scenario for Wyoming. It’s possible there could be enough ground swell in the MWC for the leaving members to eliminate any exit fees/dissolve. Even if it is just Oregon State and Washington State, the ‘PAC’ brand is worth substantially more than the MWC brand.

As McPeachy alludes to, the ‘have nots’ need to work together to have a solid strategy and plan in place.

 

[r12]

If the PAC is down to its three weakest schools, and not enough MWC schools can afford the buyout how is that going to work

The PAC down to 3-4 schools is worst case scenario for Wyoming. It’s possible there could be enough ground swell in the MWC for the leaving members to eliminate any exit fees/dissolve. Even if it is just Oregon State and Washington State, the ‘PAC’ brand is worth substantially more than the MWC brand.

As McPeachy alludes to, the ‘have nots’ need to work together to have a solid strategy and plan in place.

Yeah, I don't get how people think pac teams are joining the mwc

 

[LanderPoke]

If the PAC is down to its three weakest schools, and not enough MWC schools can afford the buyout how is that going to work

The PAC down to 3-4 schools is worst case scenario for Wyoming. It’s possible there could be enough ground swell in the MWC for the leaving members to eliminate any exit fees/dissolve. Even if it is just Oregon State and Washington State, the ‘PAC’ brand is worth substantially more than the MWC brand.

As McPeachy alludes to, the ‘have nots’ need to work together to have a solid strategy and plan in place.

The "brand" is only worth what the collective schools are worth. Oregon State, Washington State and Cal are not worth much. Why would MWC schools mess with a buyout and all that to make marginally more money in the PAC (only after a number of years when considering the cost of the buyout) that everyone knows is a sham and a shell of its former self? Doesn't make sense to me.

 

[Poke in New England]

If the PAC is down to its three weakest schools, and not enough MWC schools can afford the buyout how is that going to work

The PAC down to 3-4 schools is worst case scenario for Wyoming. It’s possible there could be enough ground swell in the MWC for the leaving members to eliminate any exit fees/dissolve. Even if it is just Oregon State and Washington State, the ‘PAC’ brand is worth substantially more than the MWC brand.

As McPeachy alludes to, the ‘have nots’ need to work together to have a solid strategy and plan in place.

Unfortunately, the Mountain West has not once been proactive/forward-thinking in these matters. If there is a split in the MW between the forward-thinkers and the cautious, status quo schools, I think we all know where UW is likely to fall, sadly.

 

[McPeachy]

The PAC down to 3-4 schools is worst case scenario for Wyoming. It’s possible there could be enough ground swell in the MWC for the leaving members to eliminate any exit fees/dissolve. Even if it is just Oregon State and Washington State, the ‘PAC’ brand is worth substantially more than the MWC brand.

As McPeachy alludes to, the ‘have nots’ need to work together to have a solid strategy and plan in place.

Unfortunately, the Mountain West has not once been proactive/forward-thinking in these matters. If there is a split in the MW between the forward-thinkers and the cautious, status quo schools, I think we all know where UW is likely to fall, sadly.

Agree. And it kills me to agree. "Doing less with less since forever" - UW AD

New blood needed, asap.

 

[307bball]

Unfortunately, the Mountain West has not once been proactive/forward-thinking in these matters. If there is a split in the MW between the forward-thinkers and the cautious, status quo schools, I think we all know where UW is likely to fall, sadly.

Agree. And it kills me to agree. "Doing less with less since forever" - UW AD

New blood needed, asap.

This is why it is soooo unlikely that anything will change. The incentives for the smaller budget programs are for it to stay the same....If it changes, there is not enough money sloshing around in donations and state coffers to make up for any error that comes from the "forward thinking" movement. The bias is towards complacency because for every 20 "forward thinking" ideas...maybe one of them is actually worth pursuing. If you have tons of money...pursue all of them because the losses on the ones that don't work out will eventually be made up by the gains from the few that do work out. I don't have all of the inside information on these dealings ... but I really can't see an "out" here for Wyoming and the lower 2/3s of the current MWC.

 

[r12]

The PAC down to 3-4 schools is worst case scenario for Wyoming. It’s possible there could be enough ground swell in the MWC for the leaving members to eliminate any exit fees/dissolve. Even if it is just Oregon State and Washington State, the ‘PAC’ brand is worth substantially more than the MWC brand.

As McPeachy alludes to, the ‘have nots’ need to work together to have a solid strategy and plan in place.

The "brand" is only worth what the collective schools are worth. Oregon State, Washington State and Cal are not worth much. Why would MWC schools mess with a buyout and all that to make marginally more money in the PAC (only after a number of years when considering the cost of the buyout) that everyone knows is a sham and a shell of its former self? Doesn't make sense to me.

I think you underestimate how badly the core of suds, csu, and bsu want out.

There are lots of avenues this can go, but almost guaranteed to be consolidation of the best markets in the west. We won't be in it.

 

[r12]

I think they consolidate bball powers and markets...

Gathering St. Mary's, UNLV, suds, Gonzaga, and??? would make them the premiere west coast-centered bball conference.

Gather up bsu, smu, fresno, + whatever else makes you hands down the best and biggest markets in football on the west coast not in b1g or b12.

There's only a few years left on the mwc tv contract. The above scenario will maximize the remaining peanuts on the next round of TV contracts which likely offsets any buyout concerns long-term.

It's not necessarily all about the value today relative to other P5s but also about the post-apocalyptic landing spot. Consolidating powers football/bball and markets is the only logical step to attempt.

 

[LanderPoke]

The "brand" is only worth what the collective schools are worth. Oregon State, Washington State and Cal are not worth much. Why would MWC schools mess with a buyout and all that to make marginally more money in the PAC (only after a number of years when considering the cost of the buyout) that everyone knows is a sham and a shell of its former self? Doesn't make sense to me.

I think you underestimate how badly the core of suds, csu, and bsu want out.

There are lots of avenues this can go, but almost guaranteed to be consolidation of the best markets in the west. We won't be in it.

Eh, I have my doubts that SDSU and Boise will separate from us. CSU going anywhere better than where Wyoming, Utah State, Nevada and NM end up is far-fetched, imo. We shall see!

 

[OrediggerPoke]

Crystal Ball MWC 2028:
Wyoming
Utah State
Nevada-Reno
SJSU
New Mexico
New Mexico State
UTEP
Air Force
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
(Montana and Montana State - - Less Likely)
(Utah Tech - a possibility)

While I believe that Air Force will have options, this conference will actually fit the Air Force mission better than some far flung PAC conference. So I see Air Force as staying. SJSU is the oddball but I don't see them having any football options other than perhaps the Big Sky which makes little sense. If this is how it shakes out, honestly this is a sensible regional 10/12 team conference for Wyoming. Will there be any TV/media dollars? No, very little. Will this conference be substantially worse than the current MWC? Not really.

 

[McPeachy]

Crystal Ball MWC 2028:
Wyoming
Utah State
Nevada-Reno
SJSU
New Mexico
New Mexico State
UTEP
Air Force
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
(Montana and Montana State - - Less Likely)
(Utah Tech - a possibility)

While I believe that Air Force will have options, this conference will actually fit the Air Force mission better than some far flung PAC conference. So I see Air Force as staying. SJSU is the oddball but I don't see them having any football options other than perhaps the Big Sky which makes little sense. If this is how it shakes out, honestly this is a sensible regional 10/12 team conference for Wyoming. Will there be any TV/media dollars? No, very little. Will this conference be substantially worse than the current MWC? Not really.

I am probably overreacting a bit here, but if that was the conference make-up and only option for Wyoming, I likely will put myself out to pasture as a season ticket buying financial donor. At that point the 10-15k or so spent every year on things "UW Athletics", will be spent somewhere else.

 

[r12]

I think you underestimate how badly the core of suds, csu, and bsu want out.

There are lots of avenues this can go, but almost guaranteed to be consolidation of the best markets in the west. We won't be in it.

Eh, I have my doubts that SDSU and Boise will separate from us. CSU going anywhere better than where Wyoming, Utah State, Nevada and NM end up is far-fetched, imo. We shall see!

You could be totally right. I can see that angle for sure.

I think the bball will be important with an eye to the next round of TV negotiations. MWC might be near 0 as is. If some conglomerate of the best of the rest stands a chance to generate tv money, the chances go up.

The other wild card is what the b1g and sec do or are like to do. Will another classification start because they split? If they do, does conference really matter other than proximity? Lots of stuff is going to happen in the next 3-5 years.