LanderPoke
Well-known member
All I know is that the "haves" will not add to their ranks because that would mean less money for them.
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First Realignment rumor of the 2020s
- Thread starter Wyokie
- Start date
That moron had been on the MWC Board since, what???, 1999!!!!!!!!!!ragtimejoe1
Well-known member
Crazy how many people think they know which way this is going to go. I'm completely guessing, obviously, in my posts above. The huge changes make this impossible to predict where it will end up and how fast. So many unknowns:
1) Impact of new transfer rules (don't underestimate this relative to scholarship rules)
2) Impacts of NIL
3) The restructure of the playoff
4) What was left of NCAA oversight is effectively over
5) Online streaming and fan following versus market size in the face of declining viewership
6) How fast will all of this happen and how many steps will it take to get to the final product
7) Will TV money completely dry up for those outside the P5 or will schools like UW switch strictly to a streaming service in some form
8) Will the new system even attempt to maintain some semblance of the old or will the P5 completely break away? If they do break away, do they contract by 1 team or several teams (I personally can't see any scenario where expansion makes sense if they break away)?
9) If they do try to maintain the current status but capture more TV dollars by building super conferences, will there be enough TV dollars left for remnants to poach the best of the G5 in an effort to build a tweener conference?
10) Who else is driving this? I seriously doubt it is just Texas and OU looking for a better situation.
In the end, I don't think it will be better for the sport. The only thing certain, in my opinion, is that major changes are coming.
1) Impact of new transfer rules (don't underestimate this relative to scholarship rules)
2) Impacts of NIL
3) The restructure of the playoff
4) What was left of NCAA oversight is effectively over
5) Online streaming and fan following versus market size in the face of declining viewership
6) How fast will all of this happen and how many steps will it take to get to the final product
7) Will TV money completely dry up for those outside the P5 or will schools like UW switch strictly to a streaming service in some form
8) Will the new system even attempt to maintain some semblance of the old or will the P5 completely break away? If they do break away, do they contract by 1 team or several teams (I personally can't see any scenario where expansion makes sense if they break away)?
9) If they do try to maintain the current status but capture more TV dollars by building super conferences, will there be enough TV dollars left for remnants to poach the best of the G5 in an effort to build a tweener conference?
10) Who else is driving this? I seriously doubt it is just Texas and OU looking for a better situation.
In the end, I don't think it will be better for the sport. The only thing certain, in my opinion, is that major changes are coming.
sandiegopoke
Well-known member
Cowduck said:
I just spit coffee all over my keyboard and monitor!
Cowduck
Well-known member
sandiegopoke said:Cowduck said:
I just spit coffee all over my keyboard and monitor!
Just look at this shit
https://www.mwcboard.com/index.php?...gnment-thread/&do=findComment&comment=2945687
Shocked he's still around. As I said on a earlier post, ole RR has been around for a long time!!!!Cowduck said:sandiegopoke said:Cowduck said:
I just spit coffee all over my keyboard and monitor!
Just look at this shit
https://www.mwcboard.com/index.php?...gnment-thread/&do=findComment&comment=2945687
Cowduck said:
Exactly. The other good thing about conference realignment is that it makes people have hope that they are going to be invited. The Boise, CSU, SDSU, BYU, and UNLV idiots all think that suddenly they're going to get their tickets punched to the big time.
I guess I might be a little cynical but I have a hard time believing that this isn't a way for less schools to share more money, not the other way around.
In fact, it looks like what just happened is that the Big 12 lost a bid to the newly expanded play-off and the SEC just gained another one.
Whatever the Big 12 creates, after Texas and OU leave, might manage to gain play-off access some years, but the SEC is probably going to get 4-6 teams in the tourney every season. Now the Big 12 will be playing for the access crumb designed to avoid lawsuits, instead of the AAC and MWC competing for it.
This is the SEC's way of insuring more money for their members by taking it away from the teams left behind in the Big 12.
I guess the good news is the group of people without access just added WVU, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor, TCU(welcome back), Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. Welcome to the club Big 12.
Old-Bull said:Cowduck said:
The other good thing about conference realignment is that it makes people have hope that they are going to be invited. The Boise, CSU, SDSU, BYU, and UNLV idiots all think that suddenly they're going to get their tickets punched to the big time.
I guess I might be a little cynical but I have a hard time believing that this isn't a way for less schools to share more money, not the other way around.
In fact, it looks like what just happened is that the Big 12 lost a bid to the newly expanded play-off and the SEC just gained another one.
Whatever the Big 12 creates, after Texas and OU leave, might manage to gain play-off access some years, but the SEC is probably going to get 4-6 teams in the tourney every season. Now the Big 12 will be playing for the access crumb designed to avoid lawsuits, instead of the AAC and MWC competing for it.
This is the SEC's way of insuring more money for their members by taking it away from the teams left behind in the Big 12.
I guess the good news is the group of people without access just added WVU, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor, TCU(welcome back), Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. Welcome to the club Big 12.
I agree but I could see those Big 12 leftovers getting invited to the PAC-12, Big Ten, & ACC within weeks, with the big exception being K-State, just so that OU and Texas can get into the SEC a lot sooner than 2025.
The only current Power 5 school I feel bad for is Kansas State cos their only options are the Mountain West or the AAC.
Wyokie said:Old-Bull said:Cowduck said:
The other good thing about conference realignment is that it makes people have hope that they are going to be invited. The Boise, CSU, SDSU, BYU, and UNLV idiots all think that suddenly they're going to get their tickets punched to the big time.
I guess I might be a little cynical but I have a hard time believing that this isn't a way for less schools to share more money, not the other way around.
In fact, it looks like what just happened is that the Big 12 lost a bid to the newly expanded play-off and the SEC just gained another one.
Whatever the Big 12 creates, after Texas and OU leave, might manage to gain play-off access some years, but the SEC is probably going to get 4-6 teams in the tourney every season. Now the Big 12 will be playing for the access crumb designed to avoid lawsuits, instead of the AAC and MWC competing for it.
This is the SEC's way of insuring more money for their members by taking it away from the teams left behind in the Big 12.
I guess the good news is the group of people without access just added WVU, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor, TCU(welcome back), Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. Welcome to the club Big 12.
I agree but I could see those Big 12 leftovers getting invited to the PAC-12, Big Ten, & ACC within weeks, with the big exception being K-State, just so that OU and Texas can get into the SEC a lot sooner than 2025.
The only current Power 5 school I feel bad for is Kansas State cos their only options are the Mountain West or the AAC.
WVU maybe to the ACC. Kansas maybe to the Big Ten or ACC. The rest of it looks extremely unlikely. The AAC has 15 teams. The Big Ten has 14. Both of those leagues are saving a seat for Notre Dame in case they move. The SEC now has 16 teams. I just can't see any of those schools moving the needle for the Pac 12 unless the Pac decides to gain a new time zone and Texas recruiting.
We'll see, but I'll bet the majority of them end up staying on the pile of BIG 12 cash and inviting other have nots from the AAC and MWC.
If Kansas doesn't get an invite from the BIG, maybe there would be some jockeying to convince them to come to the MWC with Gonzaga and BYU for basketball purposes? Since Hawaii is a FB only member, that makes for an even 14 teams for both FB and BB and creates a pretty good BB conference with multiple tournament bids. Not too far fetched in my opinion.
For football, it seems like Oklahoma State and the Texas schools would prefer the AAC over the MWC for a number of reasons. Time zones, market, locality, $, etc.
For football, it seems like Oklahoma State and the Texas schools would prefer the AAC over the MWC for a number of reasons. Time zones, market, locality, $, etc.
Old Bull might end up being right.
So far tonight, the Big 12 sent ESPN a cease and desist letter because the rumor is that ESPN is actively trying to move 3-5 of the remaining eight schools into the American Athletic Conference just to dissolve the Big 12 quicker and not pay the Big 12 any T.V. money anymore.
Fun times lay ahead, kids.
Buckle up! It's going to be a roller coaster of a wild ride and....there's no brakes to this ride.
So far tonight, the Big 12 sent ESPN a cease and desist letter because the rumor is that ESPN is actively trying to move 3-5 of the remaining eight schools into the American Athletic Conference just to dissolve the Big 12 quicker and not pay the Big 12 any T.V. money anymore.
Fun times lay ahead, kids.
Buckle up! It's going to be a roller coaster of a wild ride and....there's no brakes to this ride.
Expat_Poke
Well-known member
Wyokie said:
That #$%^ mouse is behind this. Something I have mentioned for a long time is the media are overpaying the majority of "P5" programs compared to eyeballs they actually bring in. Disney was looking at the numbers and realized the only programs worthwhile financially in the Big 12 were Texas and Oklahoma. How to fix this? Convince Texas and Oklahoma to go to the SEC and then pillage and destroy the Big 12 and get out of paying those media rights. The lower level Pac 12, Big 10, and ACC programs better be watching their backs.
Short term this contraction movement may be good for the mouse, but long term they are killing the goose laying their golden eggs.
Edit to make more clear: right now ESPN is facing financial problems. One of the problems College Football is facing now is it is being dominated by mostly 1 region and a handful of programs. This contraction will only exacerbate that. So while short term it may help the mouse's bottom line, it is going to kill that goose. They should be looking at ways to raise all the boats, make more money that way, and generate more widely distributed excitement for the sport as a whole.
Expat_Poke said:
This might benefit the MWC in the short term though. Now, the Big 12 has more incentive to stay together to reap the exit fees, GOR, remaining 4 years of the t.v. contract, and any potential damages they receive for tortious interference. In addition, Fox has incentive to keep the Big 12 together so they don't lose product to ESPN.
Now it looks very likely the Big 12 will gut the AAC, taking Cinci, Memphis, Houston, and UCF. If that happens the MWC moves up by default, making it more likely we'll get a team in the play-off. BYU might go to the Big 12, but it's not very likely that SDSU or Boise are leaving the MWC. WVU is going to want eastern expansion.
Also, if the Big 12 has proof that ESPN is trying to destroy the conference, then the Big 12 leftovers aren't going to the Pac 12, B1G, or ACC. If that were the case, those teams aren't going to risk losing their spot in a bigger league by telling the conference commissioner about their offer. The only way they'll rat out ESPN is if the landing spot is less desirable then where they're currently at: the AAC. This is a pretty good indication, that no one wants the leftover Big 12 schools aside from the MWC and the AAC.
I think there's a very good chance the MWC could keep our current membership and possibly even pick up a few good expansion candidates after this whole mess blows over. Fox will certainly have incentive to add more valuable products to the Fox inventory, so maybe they'll be willing to increase the MWC t.v. contract if certain teams are available like Houston, SMU.....
We'll see how this all goes but I'm feeling a lot better that the MWC isn't about to get gutted again.
ragtimejoe1
Well-known member
My prediction is that this is step 1 in contraction. TV partners might facilitate this to make it happen faster.
SEC will be at 16.
Baylor, Okstate, Tech and KState to Pac12 for 16. (2 AZ teams, CO, and UT combine with these for the east division and rest are west division).
Iowa State and Kansas to B1G for 16.
West Virginia and Notre Dame (in some format) to the ACC for 16.
The formation of the 64-team power league will be complete. NFL format for playoffs with top 2 getting bye and everyone else playing opening round based on seeding. Auto-bid for each conference champion. 4 auto-bids and 10 at large bids.
TCU left hanging and will be either MWC or AAC bound. If there is a chance for TCU to hold strong and solicit 7+ teams to gather the buyouts, then that would be a possibility (I wouldn't think this that that likely).
Step 2 in contraction, if it occurs, will be dissolving the P4 conferences and reorganizing new system with x teams.
SEC will be at 16.
Baylor, Okstate, Tech and KState to Pac12 for 16. (2 AZ teams, CO, and UT combine with these for the east division and rest are west division).
Iowa State and Kansas to B1G for 16.
West Virginia and Notre Dame (in some format) to the ACC for 16.
The formation of the 64-team power league will be complete. NFL format for playoffs with top 2 getting bye and everyone else playing opening round based on seeding. Auto-bid for each conference champion. 4 auto-bids and 10 at large bids.
TCU left hanging and will be either MWC or AAC bound. If there is a chance for TCU to hold strong and solicit 7+ teams to gather the buyouts, then that would be a possibility (I wouldn't think this that that likely).
Step 2 in contraction, if it occurs, will be dissolving the P4 conferences and reorganizing new system with x teams.
ragtimejoe1
Well-known member
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-12-pac-12-leaders-meeting-to-discuss-alignment-options-including-potential-merger-or-scheduling-deal/
Step 1.
Step 1.
aranderson
Well-known member
ragtimejoe1 said:
Yes but the big rumor floating around now is Kansas is seeking to move to the BIG. They are themselves actively seeking that move. The Big 12 is falling apart and the MWC had better be ready to pick up the pieces and position themselves properly.
