Does Brian Hill stay or go???

[Cowboy Junky]

Next year we lose Maulhaurdt, Gentry, and Hollister: our two best receivers and our best receiving tight end. I'm confident that our younger receivers will pick up the slack, but I'm betting the offense is going to be balanced heavier towards the run.

2200 isn't impossible, and neither is the Heisman trophy.

Also means defenses will be more focused to stop the run, making it more difficult for Hill.

Everyone that played us this year made stopping Brian Hill priority number one. Stopping the running game was how you beat the Pokes this year.

 

[calpoke25]

Everyone talks about the risk of staying for his senior year. What if he gets hurt?

There's more risk in entering the NFL on a shitty contract. In the NFL, you're first contract last for 3-5 seasons. If you don't succeed or if you become an injury problem during that 3-5 year period, that's the only contract you get. You need to secure your future with that first contract.

There's a much higher chance that Hill will get hurt or fail on his rookie contract then there is of him getting hurt his senior year(knock on wood, because I don't want either to happen).

There are as many reasons for Hill to stay. I don't think there's any reason why he can't be picked in the first three rounds next year if he stays and is successful his senior season.

I think he's staying, and I've thought he was going to leave all year.

Sorry Junky I'm not following you here. What statistics are you looking at that show he would be more likely to get hurt on his rookie contract vs. his senior season? What leads you to that conclusion? There's a bigger risk in getting hurt your senior season and not getting a contract at all vs. getting hurt your rookie season. At least you got your signing bonus, even if the rest of the contract is non-guaranteed.

And no, your first contract is not about securing your future, unless you're a 1st-2nd rounder with guaranteed money. The only way you are securing your future in the NFL is by making it long enough to earn a 2nd contract, that's what secures your future. By leaving now what you are doing is simply maximizing your earnings that you can at the moment.

The only reason for Brian to stay is if what he is hearing is that he is unlikely to be drafted. If he is getting good feedback that he could be drafted it only makes sense to go now. As pointed out previously the difference between a 4th rounder and a 6th rounder isn't much, basically just a bigger signing bonus, and he's not playing himself into the top 2 rounds. If he comes back and runs for 2000 yards you think that improves his stock? Maybe it would a little, but in actuality a lot of GMs would look at that as a negative, that's 2,000 more yards on his odometer. You don't get paid in the NFL for past performance unless you're a star.

 

[carbonpoke]

The problem lies with where is the feedback coming from...? At this point I'm absolutely convinced that 100% its agents trying to lock him up. All agents want is to bring a guy under contract so that they get the 10% or whatever percentage they get in case of player getting a contract. They are salesmen, and should never be in control of said players future.

Brian needs to decide what financial needs he and his family have right now. There is pretty much no financial loss by staying in school until next year.

Decisions like this are not easy, should not be made over an agent's persistence, and have very real long term implications. Injuries in the football business are a risk that never change statistically or from level of play. Try to take that part of decision making out of the process, because it's a constant factor.

Make the decision based on value of the field, and projected value of contract.

In that case, I really believe he should stay, complete his degree under scholarship, and ensure he has something to fall back on. Even if he gets hurt next year, the scholarship covers his degree. The school insurance pays for his injury claim.

The risk of said injury happening at training camp is the same risk he has at school, except he has more financial responsibility.

Again, the decision should not be made with injury as a factor. It's all about financial value. Where is the value, that should be his thought process right now.

 

[calpoke25]

The problem lies with where is the feedback coming from...? At this point I'm absolutely convinced that 100% its agents trying to lock him up. All agents want is to bring a guy under contract so that they get the 10% or whatever percentage they get in case of player getting a contract. They are salesmen, and should never be in control of said players future.

Brian needs to decide what financial needs he and his family have right now. There is pretty much no financial loss by staying in school until next year.

Decisions like this are not easy, should not be made over an agent's persistence, and have very real long term implications. Injuries in the football business are a risk that never change statistically or from level of play. Try to take that part of decision making out of the process, because it's a constant factor.

Make the decision based on value of the field, and projected value of contract.

In that case, I really believe he should stay, complete his degree under scholarship, and ensure he has something to fall back on. Even if he gets hurt next year, the scholarship covers his degree. The school insurance pays for his injury claim.

The risk of said injury happening at training camp is the same risk he has at school, except he has more financial responsibility.

Again, the decision should not be made with injury as a factor. It's all about financial value. Where is the value, that should be his thought process right now.

Exactly, it should be about financial value. Which is why he should go if he is getting feedback he's going to be drafted. I believe most agents cut nowadays is more like 3% and the market is pushing that down even further, I doubt agents are much in play.

The contract is the same now as it will be in a year, he's not going to get a 1st-2nd round contract with guaranteed money. He's going to get a standard non-guaranteed contract for 4 years. It's the same regardless if you're drafted in the 3rd or 7th round. The only difference is signing bonus. That basically means it's up to him to make the team every year to earn that contract and he can be cut at any time.

 

[calpoke25]

If you were a junior in college and were offered a signing bonus with a company for 140K with a non guaranteed contract for 4 years for 2.4 mil, no promise that the company is going to hire you every year or even the same year you would be foolish to not take that opportunity. School can be completed anytime, getting a signing bonus and having a chance to earn a roster spot is something with a very, very finite shelf life as a running back.

 

[CowboyNV]

Here's a pretty good article on declaring early for the draft. The odds of success are not good.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/near-disastrous-number-of-early-entries-declaring-for-2016-nfl-draft/

 

[Cowboy Junky]

Everyone talks about the risk of staying for his senior year. What if he gets hurt?

There's more risk in entering the NFL on a shitty contract. In the NFL, you're first contract last for 3-5 seasons. If you don't succeed or if you become an injury problem during that 3-5 year period, that's the only contract you get. You need to secure your future with that first contract.

There's a much higher chance that Hill will get hurt or fail on his rookie contract then there is of him getting hurt his senior year(knock on wood, because I don't want either to happen).

There are as many reasons for Hill to stay. I don't think there's any reason why he can't be picked in the first three rounds next year if he stays and is successful his senior season.

I think he's staying, and I've thought he was going to leave all year.

Sorry Junky I'm not following you here. What statistics are you looking at that show he would be more likely to get hurt on his rookie contract vs. his senior season? What leads you to that conclusion? There's a bigger risk in getting hurt your senior season and not getting a contract at all vs. getting hurt your rookie season. At least you got your signing bonus, even if the rest of the contract is non-guaranteed.

And no, your first contract is not about securing your future, unless you're a 1st-2nd rounder with guaranteed money. The only way you are securing your future in the NFL is by making it long enough to earn a 2nd contract, that's what secures your future. By leaving now what you are doing is simply maximizing your earnings that you can at the moment.

The only reason for Brian to stay is if what he is hearing is that he is unlikely to be drafted. If he is getting good feedback that he could be drafted it only makes sense to go now. As pointed out previously the difference between a 4th rounder and a 6th rounder isn't much, basically just a bigger signing bonus, and he's not playing himself into the top 2 rounds. If he comes back and runs for 2000 yards you think that improves his stock? Maybe it would a little, but in actuality a lot of GMs would look at that as a negative, that's 2,000 more yards on his odometer. You don't get paid in the NFL for past performance unless you're a star.

Senior year lasts one season. Rookie contracts lasts four. Four years is three years longer than one year. You're more likely to get hurt in the NFL then you are in college. You'll have four years to go without getting injured. You're more likely to fail during that four years and end up a bust.

If you enter the draft in the first or second round you can make 5-30 million. If you enter after the third, you'll make 2 million over four years, and that number is smaller the later you go.

If Hill gets hurt his senior year, he'll still get drafted in the lower rounds. If he succeeds, he can make the top three rounds of the draft and secure his families future for life.

If he goes this year and ends up getting drafted later than the third, then he gets his 2 million, and he has a much higher chance of never getting a 5-30 million dollar contract.

NFL scouts are going to convince him to go now so they can get paid now, but trying to get into the top 3 rounds of the draft is the lowest risk proposition for his family getting rich quick. Getting drafted low this year gets you 2 million, but then you have to survive four years of NFL abuse before you have a chance to get a contract as big as you would if you stayed and got drafted in the first three rounds.

There's risk in every plan, but if I'm Hill, and my name is likely to be in the Heisman converstation, and challenging for a top 10 all-time rushing mark in college football, I take the stats that will likely make me a top 3 round pick, and risk getting injured, which leaves you in the same position you're in right now, even if you do get injured.

I think he's staying this year.

 

[joshvanklomp]

The decline in both evaluations and draft entrants resulted from changes to the College Advisory Committee’s process for determining whether underclassmen are ready for the pro game. Under NFL guidelines issued in the summer of 2014, a college can request evaluations for only five players, with exceptions determined on a case-by-case basis; previously, there was no limit on the number of players from one team who could be reviewed.

The ratings system was revised as well. In previous years, the Committee would evaluate players in one of five categories: potential first-round pick, potential second-round pick, potential third-round pick, no potential for the first three rounds or no draft potential at all. The new ratings are much simpler: potential first round, potential second round, or neither, which is effectively a recommendation to stay in school.

Of the 33 student-athletes who declared for the 2015 NFL Draft despite receiving a recommendation to stay in school, only six were selected in the first two rounds. The others were chosen in the third round or later (21) or went undrafted (six).

“Declaring for the Draft doesn’t guarantee success in the NFL,” said Vincent. “This honest assessment informs the student-athlete, in very realistic terms, of his likelihood of being drafted in the first two rounds — or recommending that he should not forfeit his remaining college eligibility, and complete his education while improving his football skills and maturity.”

http://operations.nfl.com/the-players/development-pipeline/the-nfl-college-advisory-committee/

 

[laxwyo]

I want him back. If he's good enough to be pro, he'll make a team regardless of draft status. It'd be nice to be guaranteed money etc, but there's tons of undrafted players on teams. If he's good enough, someone will find him. Hopefully as a Steelers backup running back to Bell. Also, josh would make a perfect steeler in a few years.


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i like the way you think, sir

Josh's timing might also be perfect for the Steelers transition. Three more years of Ben, one year for josh to learn behind him, boom!


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[cowboyz]

2,200 would be the 6th greatest season in NCAA history. Sure I won't put anything past Hill, but it's an extreme long shot.

Hell, he could have 1,000 after the first 4 games. Plus we're playing Pumphey defenses next year, HI, SJS and Fresno, ranked 117, 122 and 123 against the run. Texas State was 106 and Oregon was 121. These OOC and out of divison games aren't like this year, where we faced good run defenses at Nebraska, SDS, E Mich and even No. Illinois. Only our own division and Iowa are tough vs. the run next season. 2,200 is doable, especially as teams will know to focus more on our passing game.

 

[calpoke25]

Senior year lasts one season. Rookie contracts lasts four. Four years is three years longer than one year. You're more likely to get hurt in the NFL then you are in college. You'll have four years to go without getting injured. You're more likely to fail during that four years and end up a bust.

If you enter the draft in the first or second round you can make 5-30 million. If you enter after the third, you'll make 2 million over four years, and that number is smaller the later you go.

If Hill gets hurt his senior year, he'll still get drafted in the lower rounds. If he succeeds, he can make the top three rounds of the draft and secure his families future for life.

If he goes this year and ends up getting drafted later than the third, then he gets his 2 million, and he has a much higher chance of never getting a 5-30 million dollar contract.

NFL scouts are going to convince him to go now so they can get paid now, but trying to get into the top 3 rounds of the draft is the lowest risk proposition for his family getting rich quick. Getting drafted low this year gets you 2 million, but then you have to survive four years of NFL abuse before you have a chance to get a contract as big as you would if you stayed and got drafted in the first three rounds.

There's risk in every plan, but if I'm Hill, and my name is likely to be in the Heisman converstation, and challenging for a top 10 all-time rushing mark in college football, I take the stats that will likely make me a top 3 round pick, and risk getting injured, which leaves you in the same position you're in right now, even if you do get injured.

I think he's staying this year.

I'm not sure how much you actually know about NFL contracts, particularly rookie contracts. I'd encourage you to look at the info DVDA posted as well as do some light reading on the subject matter. You're kind of using your opinion as fact.

Let's start with some basic facts. The only major difference in being a 3rd round pick vs. a 7th round pick is in the signing bonus. ALL rookie contracts (except first rounders who get a 5th year team option) are non-guaranteed 4 year contracts in the 2.4 mil range. All rookie contracts are basically set-up before they're even signed under the new CBA from 2011. What does that mean? It means that in order for the contract to actually mean something, you have to make the 53 man roster. The team can cut you without a financial liability to you or the team basically at any time. If you don't make the roster the contract means nothing. NFL players salary is paid during the season in "game checks." They get a check every game week being on the roster.

Let's look at another fact. The average NFL player's career last 3 years, for RBs that figure is probably lower. That means most players don't play past their first non-guaranteed rookie contract, as they run 4 years.

I've seen some things saying Brian Hill could maybe be as high as a 4th to as low as 7th round pick. Let's cut the difference and say he's a 5-6th round pick this year. Do we really think he's going to play himself into the top 2 rounds even if he runs for 2000 yards next year? I personally don't think so. If you think he has a chance to crack the top 2 rounds then your argument for staying makes more sense, as that's where guaranteed contracts start, but the NFL now, more than ever places little value on the RB position. I don't see it, if you do then OK then. His true challenge is going to be to make the 53 man roster for that contract to mean anything, AND he's going to have to do that every freaking year. Even if he makes it in year 1, if he doesn't in year 2 it's back to square one. He will still be competing with this years class, and next years, and all other RBs already in the NFL and the ones to come for roster spots.

His name is not "likely" to be in the Heisman conversation. Pumphrey's name was never seriously mentioned in any Heisman conversation, and you say it's because he was shut down the last 3 weeks and Brian Hill won't be? How do you know? He was shut down in the MW title game. We'd need to beat Oregon and Iowa with him going off in both games. If you think that's "likely" well then good for you. I'd consider it maybe "possible" but "likely" is too strong.

The real key in this conversation is you have to steer it away from this "get rich quick, take care of your family for generations" mentality that you're framing the conversation through. For the vast, vast majority of NFL players, playing in the NFL doesn't set them up for life, they maybe get to kick start their adult lives with a couple extra hundred thousand (which is nothing to sneeze at) if they're able to stick around for a year or two. It's about simply taking advantage of that and getting what you can, WHILE YOU CAN. Maximizing your earnings while you can. You cant be assuming so many things about your senior year, (i.e. that you will "likely" be in the Heisman race, that you will set NCAA records, that your team will be as good as this year, that you won't get hurt). None of those things are guaranteed or in some maybe even likely.

 

[Cowboy Junky]

Yeah, I know exactly how NFL contracts work.

The difference between you and I: I think Brian Hill puts himself in a position to be in guaranteed money if he plays his senior year.

Right now, the highest I've seen him projected is between the 3-4 round this season, which means he gets the 2 million dollar contract with a signing bonus and has to make the team every season. Which is why I'm saying that's riskier then staying his senior season.

Brian Hill is an NFL back: he's big powerful, he runs between the tackles, and he'll be on the field on first, second, and third down. He's the type of back most NFL teams will want.

Next years schedule puts him in position to put his name on the list with the greatest running backs in college history, which will make him a candidate for the Heisman, it will make him a serious challenger to set the all time college record, and it will make it VERY POSSIBLE for him to get drafted in the first two rounds. The difference between him and Pumphrey is that Pumphrey is too small for the NFL and will likely be a third down back.

You don't think he can be a 1st or 2nd round pick if he comes back. I do. I think he will get guaranteed money if he comes back his senior season.

If he does get injured his senior year, the only injury that will likely keep him from getting drafted is a life threatening injury or something that knocks him out of football all together. Any other injury, he's still going to get drafted(he'll still get the non-guaranteed rookie contract he would get if he left this season). It's much more likely that he'll suffer that type of injury in the NFL, against bigger, stronger, and faster players. It's much more likely he'll suffer that type of injury on a non-guaranteed rookie contract over a four year span, then during one season against college competition.

If it's all about money, like it is for many college kids, a guaranteed rookie contract is the least risky way to take care of your family for life. A rookie contract without guaranteed money is riskier than playing your senior year in college. That's reality, not fantasy.

Ryan Leaf was the biggest flop in NFL history, and if he was smart with his money, his family doesn't have to work ever again.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2017/RB

 

[calpoke25]

Ryan Leaf was also a top 2 pick in a different era of rookie contracts, not sure how his case is relevant to Brian Hill because he's not getting that type of contract even if he became a top 10 pick.

Brian Hill is an NFL back no doubt, I agree with you on that. For lack of a better term though backs like him are basically a dime a dozen once you get to the NFL level though. He's not a once in a generational or year talent. He looks to me like your standard prototypical NFL back. In other words he is who he is. Another year of college tape isn't going to change how NFL GMs view him. He looks to be a very serviceable NFL RB. I don't see him playing his way into the top 2 rounds, you do and that's where we disagree. I don't think it's wise to come back with a bunch of assumptions about how good your team is going to be to enhance your draft stock. It's a personal decision. If he can be drafted this year he needs to go IMO. If he doesn't leave for the NFL that tells me personally that he got feedback that he probably wouldn't be drafted. We'll probably never know the true inside story.

 

[Cowboy Junky]

So what information do you have that says he won't be a 1st or 2nd round pick if he comes back? Or is that just your opinion?

He's 2200 yards shy of being the leading rusher in NCAA history, playing on a Wyoming team that sucked his freshman and sophomore years.

His only problem, if any, has been a lack of exposure. Next year will provide that opportunity with early games against Iowa, Oregon, another bowl game(maybe an access bowl), a senior bowl, and a possibility of another MWC championship game.

I think if he comes back in a draft class that isn't loaded with running backs, he very well could be a 1st or 2nd round pick.

Hill has more to gain by playing his senior season.

 

[calpoke25]

It's my opinion, but I think that's a little more realistic than assuming he's going to do all these things you think he is, including rushing for 2200 yards. Show me a running back who has ever improved their stock, ever from a 6th round pick to a 1st or 2nd round pick. I doubt you'll find many examples of that, especially from non P5 schools. I've seen him rated as roughly the 15-20th best RB in his class. You don't get picked in the 1st-2nd round with that. Youre talking about access bowls, 2200 yard seasons, MW championships as if they just grow on trees. They don't. You need to be really good and also have a fair amount of luck. We haven't had back to back winning seasons in 20 years. Yes we look to be hopefully turning the page as program but talking about those things you'd think you are talking about a program of BSU's pedigree, and we are not close to that yet.

 

[Asmodeanreborn]

Maybe I'm the only one, but I actually think Hill will have less yards next year than this if he stays. I think our offense will take a step back, so opposing defenses will be able to focus more on stopping the run.

I do have hope our defense will improve by leaps and bounds, however.

 

[Cowboy Junky]

It's my opinion, but I think that's a little more realistic than assuming he's going to do all these things you think he is, including rushing for 2200 yards. Show me a running back who has ever improved their stock, ever from a 6th round pick to a 1st or 2nd round pick. I doubt you'll find many examples of that, especially from non P5 schools. I've seen him rated as roughly the 15-20th best RB in his class. You don't get picked in the 1st-2nd round with that. Youre talking about access bowls, 2200 yard seasons, MW championships as if they just grow on trees. They don't. You need to be really good and also have a fair amount of luck. We haven't had back to back winning seasons in 20 years. Yes we look to be hopefully turning the page as program but talking about those things you'd think you are talking about a program of BSU's pedigree, and we are not close to that yet.

Who said I think he's going to do anything? I think he could do those things. There's a big difference. Stop inferring that I'm predicting that he will. I'm not.

He will have two games early in the year that will get him big time exposure, something he has been lacking. The Iowa and Oregon games will provide that.

Whether or not he will finish with 2200 yards and be the all time leading rusher, be a candidate for the Heisman, or make an access bowl is irrelevant. Those things are achievable, but they aren't likely. I think with a big game or two early in the season, his name will get mentioned for the Heisman trophy next season, just like Donnell Pumphrey's did this season all year long until he had three games under his average to finish the season.

Regardless, if he comes back next year he will finish in the top 5 all time of leading rushers with a season similar to the last two years. He will get more exposure with Iowa, Oregon, and a senior bowl. He will have a more impressive statistical body of work if he plays another season.

There's no reason why he can't be drafted in the first two rounds next year. Your opinion is that he won't. Some NFL draft execs are projecting him in rounds three to four this season.

So keep acting like your opinion is the only possible outcome, with nothing to back it up, because if Brian Hill stays another year, he very well could end up the all time leading rusher in NCAA history, a candidate for the Heisman, and end up getting drafted in the first two rounds.

Those things are possible. Getting drafted in the first two rounds next year is probably the easiest of those to achieve for Brian Hill.

 

[WestWYOPoke]

There is absolutely nothing Hill could do to move up to a 1st round pick next year. He could run for 2400 yards and still be a 2nd rounder at best. Why? Because he plays at Wyoming, simple as that, we get no respect. Yes, this is opinion, but I bet it's very close to the truth.

 

[calpoke25]

Who said I think he's going to do anything? I think he could do those things. There's a big difference. Stop inferring that I'm predicting that he will. I'm not.

He will have two games early in the year that will get him big time exposure, something he has been lacking. The Iowa and Oregon games will provide that.

Weather or not he will finish with 2200 yards and be the all time leading rusher, be a candidate for the Heisman, or make an access bowl is irrelevant. Those things are acheivable, but they aren't likely. I think with a big game or two early in the season, his name will get mentioned for the Heisman trophy next season, just like Donnell Pumphrey's did this season all year long until he had three games under his average to finish the season.

Regardless, if he comes back next year he will finish in the top 5 all time of leading rushers with a season similar to the last two years. He will get more exposure with Iowa, Oregon, and a senior bowl. He will have a more impressive statistical body of work if he plays another season.

There's no reason why he can't be drafted in the first two rounds next year. Your opinion is that he won't. Some NFL draft execs are projecting him in rounds three to four this season.

So keep spouting off your opinion, with nothing to back it up, because if Brian Hill stays another year, he very well could end up the all time leading rusher in NCAA history, a candidate for the Heisman, and end up getting drafted in the first two rounds.

Those things are possible. Getting drafted in the first two rounds next year is probably the easiest of those to achieve for Brian Hill.

You say you aren't making predictions, or that those things are likely, but then you say things like "he very well could end up the all-time leading rusher in NCAA history, a candidate for the Heisman," kind of graying the line there.

You also say whether or not he does those things (2200 yards, Heisman candidacy, access bowl) are irrelevant. If those accolades are irrelevant then why would he stay? Your case is that those things would boost him into the first 2 rounds. It's contradicting.

The NFL doesn't pay you or draft you on your statistical body of work. They do so with what they think you will do in the future. In the last 3 drafts a grand total of 9 RBs were taken in the first 2 rounds, and only one of them was from a non P5 school. That's an average of 3 per year. If you think being one of the top 3 RBs in your class is the easier thing to do then so be it.

 

[Wyo2dal]

There is absolutely nothing Hill could do to move up to a 1st round pick next year. He could run for 2400 yards and still be a 2nd rounder at best. Why? Because he plays at Wyoming, simple as that, we get no respect. Yes, this is opinion, but I bet it's very close to the truth.

Sorry but this is just an asinine comment. That entire mentality that a Wyoming player can't be drafted at x round because he is from Wyoming is pure nonsense.


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