Does Brian Hill stay or go???

[joshvanklomp]

Why wouldn't he be? Pumphrey was in the mix this year.

He was? I don't remember him being one of the five finalists.

 

[Cowboy Junky]

Why wouldn't he be? Pumphrey was in the mix this year.

He was? I don't remember him being one of the five finalists.

His name will be in the conversation, just like Pumphrey's was all season, until Wyoming and CSU shut his ass down, the last three games of the season.

Hill might be a finalist. He likely won't get shut down by three MWC opponents in a row to end the season next year, like Pumphrey did to fall out of the finalist group.

 

[Adv8RU12]

Vigen's playbook will determine how many yards he gets next year if he stays. The best offensive coordinator in the USA COULD get him 2200. But not Vigen. But it doesn't matter. He's not staying.

 

[calpoke25]

Guaranteed NFL contracts basically end after the 2nd round. The biggest change in terms of money from being drafted in say the 4th round to the 7th round is in the signing bonus. A 4th round pick could be expecting a signing bonus in the area of 270K vs maybe 80K for a 7th round pick. Their annual salary will vary by maybe 100K. Again, there is basically no guaranteed money after the 2nd round, which means that you have to make the 53 man roster to earn that salary. A practice squad player who is on the squad for the whole season will make about 90K.

So let's say Brian has feedback that he would be a 6th round pick this year (and it's good feedback). That would be a signing bonus of around 140K and a a non guaranteed contract of about 2.4 million, (contingent on him making the team.) Declining that and coming back would mean forfeiting that signing bonus and chance to make the team to maybe better his position for the 2018 draft. He's not going to play his way into guaranteed money in the 2nd round, so maybe the thought would be he could maybe become a 4th rd pick instead and get a bigger signing bonus. He's still have a non guaranteed contract contingent upon him making the team, he'd still be competing with whatever running backs come out this year and next for roster spots and he'd be risking losing his 6th round signing bonus this year with another 1800 yards of wear and tear and potential injury. I think if he can be drafted this year you go, especially as a RB.

 

[Cowboy Junky]

Vigen's playbook will determine how many yards he gets next year if he stays. The best offensive coordinator in the USA COULD get him 2200. But not Vigen. But it doesn't matter. He's not staying.

We scored 37 points a game with a pro style power offense.

Vigen deserves a metal.

 

[laxwyo]

Vigen's playbook will determine how many yards he gets next year if he stays. The best offensive coordinator in the USA COULD get him 2200. But not Vigen. But it doesn't matter. He's not staying.

We scored 37 points a game with a pro style power offense.

Vigen deserves a metal.

*medal . I agree junky. Even though early in the season, the defense was good for almost 7 a game. I think Vigen did a great except for a few games.


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[whyoh]

I want him back. If he's good enough to be pro, he'll make a team regardless of draft status. It'd be nice to be guaranteed money etc, but there's tons of undrafted players on teams. If he's good enough, someone will find him. Hopefully as a Steelers backup running back to Bell. Also, josh would make a perfect steeler in a few years.


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i like the way you think, sir

 

[DVDA]

Guaranteed NFL contracts basically end after the 2nd round. The biggest change in terms of money from being drafted in say the 4th round to the 7th round is in the signing bonus. A 4th round pick could be expecting a signing bonus in the area of 270K vs maybe 80K for a 7th round pick. Their annual salary will vary by maybe 100K. Again, there is basically no guaranteed money after the 2nd round, which means that you have to make the 53 man roster to earn that salary. A practice squad player who is on the squad for the whole season will make about 90K.

So let's say Brian has feedback that he would be a 6th round pick this year (and it's good feedback). That would be a signing bonus of around 140K and a a non guaranteed contract of about 2.4 million, (contingent on him making the team.) Declining that and coming back would mean forfeiting that signing bonus and chance to make the team to maybe better his position for the 2018 draft. He's not going to play his way into guaranteed money in the 2nd round, so maybe the thought would be he could maybe become a 4th rd pick instead and get a bigger signing bonus. He's still have a non guaranteed contract contingent upon him making the team, he'd still be competing with whatever running backs come out this year and next for roster spots and he'd be risking losing his 6th round signing bonus this year with another 1800 yards of wear and tear and potential injury. I think if he can be drafted this year you go, especially as a RB.

Here's a link with a good graph showing how little you gain by moving up from a 6th to a 3rd or 4th pick. Brian would gain a lot by moving into the first or second round, but that simply isn't going to happen because he's not at a power 5 school. It's unfortunate, but NFL scouts aren't the brightest group of guys out there. He is leaving long-term money on the table if he stays. The only reason he should stay is if he isn't 100% physically because he needs to show scouts what he can do in workouts.

I know Brian Hill is going to be a strong two down running back at the next level at the very least. There aren't doubts about his ability to play at the next level by anyone that has watched him play extensively. As much as I would like him to stay, the best move for him and his family is to go to the NFL.

 

[joshvanklomp]

Brian would gain a lot by moving into the first or second round, but that simply isn't going to happen because he's not at a power 5 school. It's unfortunate, but NFL scouts aren't the brightest group of guys out there. He is leaving long-term money on the table if he stays. The only reason he should stay is if he isn't 100% physically because he needs to show scouts what he can do in workouts.

Don't be so sure of that. Just look at two of the 1st round RBs over the past 6 years

2012: 1.31 Doug Martin (Boise State)
2011: 1.12 Ryan Mathews (Fresno State)

We know for pretty damn certain Hill won't be a 1st or 2nd round pick if he leaves this year. But I definitely think he has a decent chance next year, considering the RBs who will likely be out of the picture. One of the big benefits of staying all four years is participation in events like the Senior Bowl. For a kid playing in Laramie, that type of exposure can be huge.

I don't think staying an extra year can hurt his draft stock (outside of a catastrophe), but it certainly can help it.

 

[Cowboy Junky]

Everyone talks about the risk of staying for his senior year. What if he gets hurt?

There's more risk in entering the NFL on a shitty contract. In the NFL, you're first contract last for 3-5 seasons. If you don't succeed or if you become an injury problem during that 3-5 year period, that's the only contract you get. You need to secure your future with that first contract.

There's a much higher chance that Hill will get hurt or fail on his rookie contract then there is of him getting hurt his senior year(knock on wood, because I don't want either to happen).

There are as many reasons for Hill to stay. I don't think there's any reason why he can't be picked in the first three rounds next year if he stays and is successful his senior season.

I think he's staying, and I've thought he was going to leave all year.

 

[Adv8RU12]

Vigen's playbook will determine how many yards he gets next year if he stays. The best offensive coordinator in the USA COULD get him 2200. But not Vigen. But it doesn't matter. He's not staying.

We scored 37 points a game with a pro style power offense.

Vigen deserves a metal.

I do not disagree with you at all about Vigen's overall offense. I am just saying it does not optimize what Hill is capable of. Hill is great at getting yardage when he has ANY daylight. Vigen could do much better, in my opinion, of designing running plays just for his talent.

 

[joshvanklomp]

Everyone talks about the risk of staying for his senior year. What if he gets hurt?

There's more risk in entering the NFL on a shitty contract. In the NFL, you're first contract last for 3-5 seasons. If you don't succeed or if you become an injury problem during that 3-5 year period, that's the only contract you get. You need to secure your future with that first contract.

There's a much higher chance that Hill will get hurt or fail on his rookie contract then there is of him getting hurt his senior year(knock on wood, because I don't want either to happen).

There are as many reasons for Hill to stay. I don't think there's any reason why he can't be picked in the first three rounds next year if he stays and is successful his senior season.

I think he's staying, and I've thought he was going to leave all year.

Not only that but if he can improve his draft stock, once he's in the league I'd argue a higher draft pick is more likely to stick in the league through injuries or struggles than someone who was taken at the very end of the draft.

 

[pokefanchaz7]

I don't know that our o line will be much improved as we are losing our all American center. But more experience is a given.


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[Cowboy Junky]

Vigen's playbook will determine how many yards he gets next year if he stays. The best offensive coordinator in the USA COULD get him 2200. But not Vigen. But it doesn't matter. He's not staying.

We scored 37 points a game with a pro style power offense.

Vigen deserves a metal.

I do not disagree with you at all about Vigen's overall offense. I am just saying it does not optimize what Hill is capable of. Hill is great at getting yardage when he has ANY daylight. Vigen could do much better, in my opinion, of designing running plays just for his talent.

I completely agree with that. Vigen did a marvelous job of spreading the ball around and keeping us balanced this season. That was by design.

Next year we lose Maulhaurdt, Gentry, and Hollister: our two best receivers and our best receiving tight end. I'm confident that our younger receivers will pick up the slack, but I'm betting the offense is going to be balanced heavier towards the run.

2200 isn't impossible, and neither is the Heisman trophy.

 

[Cowboy Junky]

I don't know that our o line will be much improved as we are losing our all American center. But more experience is a given.


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I agree that Roullier is a big loss, but we'll have five returning starters next year, another year in the weight room, depth across the entire line, and a freshman class that is already physically ready to play(big strong seniors in high school).

Our boys are going to be big, strong, and deep. I can't see anyway, barring injury(knock on wood) that our offensive line won't improve.

 

[joshvanklomp]

Next year we lose Maulhaurdt, Gentry, and Hollister: our two best receivers and our best receiving tight end. I'm confident that our younger receivers will pick up the slack, but I'm betting the offense is going to be balanced heavier towards the run.

2200 isn't impossible, and neither is the Heisman trophy.

Also means defenses will be more focused to stop the run, making it more difficult for Hill.

 

[joshvanklomp]

I agree that Roullier is a big loss, but we'll have five returning starters next year, another year in the weight room, depth across the entire line, and a freshman class that is already physically ready to play(big strong seniors in high school).

Our boys are going to be big, strong, and deep. I can't see anyway, barring injury(knock on wood) that our offensive line won't improve.

Five returners who've started a game, not five returning starters (unless we shuffle the line around to start all five of them together)

 

[joshvanklomp]

2,200 would be the 6th greatest season in NCAA history. Sure I won't put anything past Hill, but it's an extreme long shot.

 

[pokefanchaz7]

It would require another mwc championship game and a bowl game minim


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[Cowboy Junky]

I agree that Roullier is a big loss, but we'll have five returning starters next year, another year in the weight room, depth across the entire line, and a freshman class that is already physically ready to play(big strong seniors in high school).

Our boys are going to be big, strong, and deep. I can't see anyway, barring injury(knock on wood) that our offensive line won't improve.

Five returners who've started a game, not five returning starters (unless we shuffle the line around to start all five of them together)

So....five returning starters.