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Best bets for Week one

B

bladerunnr

Well-known member
Alternate title would be "how to lose money without really trying".
Anyways, here we go:

Colorado -10 at home vs. North Dakota st. - I just can't see NDS stopping guys like Travis Hunter

LSU -4.5 at USC - USC might be looking for a new coach if the buyout wasn't so big

csewe +32 at Texas - small play here. I think Texas is looking ahead to next week at Michigan

Thoughts on these and other games are welcome
 
bladerunnr said:
Alternate title would be "how to lose money without really trying".
Anyways, here we go:

Colorado -10 at home vs. North Dakota st. - I just can't see NDS stopping guys like Travis Hunter

LSU -4.5 at USC - USC might be looking for a new coach if the buyout wasn't so big

csewe +32 at Texas - small play here. I think Texas is looking ahead to next week at Michigan

Thoughts on these and other games are welcome
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The line is already skewed favorably toward Colorado because once again they are the recreation bettor’s favorite pick this year. I think NDSU on the money line with the upset is the better bet.
 
OrediggerPoke said:
The line is already skewed favorably toward Colorado because once again they are the recreation bettor’s favorite pick this year. I think NDSU on the money line with the upset is the better bet.
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My eyes are open as to what a fraud CU might be. They are picked anywhere from 3d to 12th in the big 12. I realize this line is to get idiots like me to bet on CU. But I watched some of the FCS playoffs last year. It just doesn't look like D1 football. If CU can't crush these guys at home, they are a lot worse than I thought.
 
bladerunnr said:
My eyes are open as to what a fraud CU might be. They are picked anywhere from 3d to 12th in the big 12. I realize this line is to get idiots like me to bet on CU. But I watched some of the FCS playoffs last year. It just doesn't look like D1 football. If CU can't crush these guys at home, they are a lot worse than I thought.
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South Dakota State would have rolled half the MWC last year. Sacramento State beat Stanford last year…the same Stanford team that beat CU. Don’t forget Nevada lost by 30 to Idaho last year and New Mexico was pretty much dominated by Montana State this year despite the close score.

If the FCS playoff teams are not ‘division 1’ quality well then objectively neither is the MWC.
 
I'm going with OK State at -9 over s Dakota state.

I'm looking at:
Northwestern at -3 over miami-oh
Bsu at -13
Ark-Pine Bluff at +52.5 (that's a lot of points).
 
OrediggerPoke said:
South Dakota State would have rolled half the MWC last year. Sacramento State beat Stanford last year…the same Stanford team that beat CU. Don’t forget Nevada lost by 30 to Idaho last year and New Mexico was pretty much dominated by Montana State this year despite the close score.

If the FCS playoff teams are not ‘division 1’ quality well then objectively neither is the MWC.
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A lot of cherry picking in that post. Stanford was 3-9 last year. CU was 4-8 and could have been 1-11. Nevada was awful last year and I think the over/under on New Mexico wins this year was 1 1/2. I don't think any FCS team could have won against any of the top 6 teams in the MWC. If CU is a top 1/2 of the Big 12 type team, they will crush SDS. Do D! teams look past FCS teams? I'm sure they do. An FCS team is excited to play a D1 school. They have nothing to lose. But if Montana st. had to play Wyoming's 2023 schedule, they would have lost at least 6 games and probably more.
 
bladerunnr said:
A lot of cherry picking in that post. Stanford was 3-9 last year. CU was 4-8 and could have been 1-11. Nevada was awful last year and I think the over/under on New Mexico wins this year was 1 1/2. I don't think any FCS team could have won against any of the top 6 teams in the MWC. If CU is a top 1/2 of the Big 12 type team, they will crush SDS. Do D! teams look past FCS teams? I'm sure they do. An FCS team is excited to play a D1 school. They have nothing to lose. But if Montana st. had to play Wyoming's 2023 schedule, they would have lost at least 6 games and probably more.
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Yea - I was way off base thinking that NDSU would probably cover a 10 point spread and that the top of the FCS is on par with the MWC.
 
OrediggerPoke said:
Yea - I was way off base thinking that NDSU would probably cover a 10 point spread and that the top of the FCS is on par with the MWC.
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Always appreciate the "I told you so" post. First, I lost my bet. So I was wrong. The NDS qb is very good. Probably as good as most qb's in the MW. Having said that, it appears that CU hasn't changed much. They can't run the ball. They can't put pressure on the QB. They still make stupid mistakes - lining up offsides, late hit on an incomplete pass, having to burn timeouts because they can't get the play in. Deion Sanders said his defense has 8 future NFL players on it. I didn't see one.
So while I have more respect for NDS, I can't help but wonder if the CU team they beat is going to end up as bad as last year.
 
bladerunnr said:
Always appreciate the "I told you so" post. First, I lost my bet. So I was wrong. The NDS qb is very good. Probably as good as most qb's in the MW. Having said that, it appears that CU hasn't changed much. They can't run the ball. They can't put pressure on the QB. They still make stupid mistakes - lining up offsides, late hit on an incomplete pass, having to burn timeouts because they can't get the play in. Deion Sanders said his defense has 8 future NFL players on it. I didn't see one.
So while I have more respect for NDS, I can't help but wonder if the CU team they beat is going to end up as bad as last year.
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It'll be interesting to watch them. If they underperform again, does it indicate a coaching problem or building a roster mostly through the portal won't work?
 
bladerunnr said:
Always appreciate the "I told you so" post. First, I lost my bet. So I was wrong. The NDS qb is very good. Probably as good as most qb's in the MW. Having said that, it appears that CU hasn't changed much. They can't run the ball. They can't put pressure on the QB. They still make stupid mistakes - lining up offsides, late hit on an incomplete pass, having to burn timeouts because they can't get the play in. Deion Sanders said his defense has 8 future NFL players on it. I didn't see one.
So while I have more respect for NDS, I can't help but wonder if the CU team they beat is going to end up as bad as last year.
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It’s not a told you so. It’s an arrogance that a lot of MWC fans have to think the conference is much better than the top of the FCS. We see it on here and we it on the conference boards. There isn’t a lot of separation there and the results over the past decade have proven that.

CU isn’t a great team but they have great playmakers. CU will be fighting for a bowl spot I think if they keep Sanders, Hunter and Horn healthy. NDSU will be fighting for a FCS national championship again after a poor (by their standards) 2023.
 
OrediggerPoke said:
It’s not a told you so. It’s an arrogance that a lot of MWC fans have to think the conference is much better than the top of the FCS. We see it on here and we it on the conference boards. There isn’t a lot of separation there and the results over the past decade have proven that.

CU isn’t a great team but they have great playmakers. CU will be fighting for a bowl spot I think if they keep Sanders, Hunter and Horn healthy. NDSU will be fighting for a FCS national championship again after a poor (by their standards) 2023.
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CU might only win 2 games now that I look at their schedule.
 
laxwyo said:
CU might only win 2 games now that I look at their schedule.
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I don't like to put too much into one game, but if CU is what they were last year, I could see that happening. We'll learn a lot about CU in the next few weeks. And if CU plays Travis Hunter on both sides of the ball for nearly the entire game again, he isn't going to last very long or be very effective.
 
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