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Air Force Opens as 10.5 point Favorites

I'm not surprised they're favorites. They're statistically a far better team, SoS aside.

I am surprised, however, that they're nearly 11-pt favorites. I expected the standard 3-pt home deviation, plus maybe another 3-5.

Anyway, MWC ranks:

Offense

YPG: AFA 4th, Wyoming 11th

Passing (Yds/Gm): Wyoming 11th, AFA 12th

Rushing: AFA 1st, Wyoming 5th

Pts/Gm: AFA 2nd, Wyoming 9th

Defense

Yds/Gm: AFA 1st, Wyoming 3rd

Pass D: AFA 1st, Wyoming 5th

Rush D: AFA 1st, Wyoming 5th

Pts/Gm:AFA 1st, Wyoming 3rd

Special Teams

Avg Kickoff Return: AFA 7th, Wyoming 10th

Avg Punt Return: Wyoming 8th, AFA 12th

FG%: AFA 1st (100%, 4 att), Wyoming 3rd (10 att, 90%)

FG Long: Wyoming 3rd (56), AFA 6th (49)

Punt Avg: Wyoming 6th, AFA 8th

ESPN SoS: Wyoming 29th, AFA 132

That last stat is what makes the line a bit more eyebrow-raising than it would be normally.

Anyway, this is going to probably be a dogfight, as usual. AFA's SoS is always baby sh** soft early in the season, but these games are never easy and it's alarming to me how many fans are already chalking it up to be a win. I hope the players don't have that mentality.
 
I really like how we matchup with our Secondary. This D front has shown it can stop the Dive and I like the thoughts of Ekeler, Brown and White out there stopping them. -10.5 is a lot of points for this meeting. They've scored a lot of points against MW opponents but their D looks really solid. I have confidence our D can hold them to a reasonable number. I'd be really surprised to see them put 40 on us. Our O scoring though? It could be one of those 13 pt games for us unless Peas and Co can put together 4 qtrs.
 
Itsux2beaewe said:
Made this post on the other thread. I saw where someone is claiming Waylee has a leg fracture. If true, ugh.
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Bohl just said he was day to day. I can’t imagine he would say that if there was a fracture.
 
OrediggerPoke said:
Itsux2beaewe said:
Made this post on the other thread. I saw where someone is claiming Waylee has a leg fracture. If true, ugh.
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Bohl just said he was day to day. I can’t imagine he would say that if there was a fracture.
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I’m not sure. He’s always been pretty close to the vest about disclosing injuries, which I’m not saying is good/bad. As recent as Texas he was saying Peasley was playing right up to game time.
 
DamThatRiver22 said:
Iut these games are never easy and it's alarming to me how many fans are already chalking it up to be a win. I hope the players don't have that mentality.
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I have not seen one Wyoming fan "chalking this up as a win".
 
That is a ton of points. i wonder if the oddsmakers assume Waylee is out of the game when they set the line.
 
This is absolutely absurd. Wyoming plays Air Force tough even when they aren't that good. If I was a gambling man I'd hammer this spread!!!
 
WyoVaquero said:
Air Force is tough. I respect the academy aspect, but I am not a big AF fan. I hate losing to these guys.
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100%

If Waylee does play, I like our chances. If not, we'll have a rough time running on them.
On the positive side, Peasley showed moments of brilliance last game. If he keeps it simple, we can still hang in there. Our receivers have looked better than expected in terms of actually catching the ball too.
 
This game could end up deciding who plays in a New Year's bowl game, assuming the winner runs the table and/or wins the conference.. If the season ended right now, it'd be the Pokes in a New Years bowl, as they are the highest ranked G5 team, barely ahead of Air Force. No one is sure what Air Force has this year, as their SOS , to date, is horrible. If they beat the Pokes there's a good chance they run the table and end up 12-0 during the regular season. While the AP and the Coaches polls both have the Pokes ahead of AF, Sagirin, is giving no respect to the Pokes, and that's what Vegas must be looking at, as they love stats. Sagirin has the Pokes really low at #71, below 3 of the teams they beat, App State (#63), Fresno (#55) and Texas Tech (#25). They have AF at #36. This game is huge for both teams. The Pokes will have to prove what they have every game for the rest of the year. I don't see where this is a 10.5 spread.
 
The Sports Books don’t make spreads based on respect or no respect or who has certain feelings about whatever.

They have reasons they make a spread the way they make it. It also doesn’t have anything to do with trying to get half the money on one side and half the money on the other side. That’s the biggest myth in Sports wagering there is.

With that said … based on the fact this line came out this big and so much money already being poured in on Wyoming at a lot of different books I have looked at… tells me the Sportsbooks are siding with AFA in this one and don’t care how much money comes in on Wyoming, they aren’t moving the line.
If you think this looks like an easy point spread cover by Wyoming, you should ask yourself a couple of questions.

How have you done long term wagering on sports? Do you usually beat the sports book and you are up on them? What makes you think the Sports book is going to just give away money for free on this game knowing a lot of people will see that big of a line on this game and want to jump all over Wyoming?

Probably best if you lay off this game wagering wise and hope the pokes can pull it out. Would suck to have a lot of money on Wyoming and they get beat by double digits and you lose as a Wyoming fan and lose your money also.

Just giving you a heads up. Hopefully Wyoming wins but honestly when I see surprising lines like this, they usually end up going the Sports Books way in “most” cases. Very high percentage of them.
 
Itsux2beaewe said:
I’m not sure. He’s always been pretty close to the vest about disclosing injuries, which I’m not saying is good/bad. As recent as Texas he was saying Peasley was playing right up to game time.
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Peasley didn't break anything though.

Bohl is actually pretty transparent about serious injuries; I don't know where this narrative suddenly comes from that's he's dodgy about injuries. You guys are bizarre sometimes.

Injuries like Peasley's are incredibly hard to give timelines on. He had a sore/strained shoulder. It was entirely dependent on how he felt and if he could make his normal throws in practice throughout the week, and stuff like that often truly is a gametime decision.

Waylee is likely the same way. If it was something that was clearly long term, and that's the information Bohl had from the medical staff, he'd say so (and has in the past).
 
seattlecowboy said:
The Sports Books don’t make spreads based on respect or no respect or who has certain feelings about whatever.

They have reasons they make a spread the way they make it.
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This board is often more emotion driven than not. It's amazing the amount of pushback I get for laying out actual data and statistics in the face of what folks here "feel".
 
DamThatRiver22 said:
Itsux2beaewe said:
I’m not sure. He’s always been pretty close to the vest about disclosing injuries, which I’m not saying is good/bad. As recent as Texas he was saying Peasley was playing right up to game time.
Click to expand...

Peasley didn't break anything though.

Bohl is actually pretty transparent about serious injuries; I don't know where this narrative suddenly comes from that's he's dodgy about injuries. You guys are bizarre sometimes.

Injuries like Peasley's are incredibly hard to give timelines on. He had a sore/strained shoulder. It was entirely dependent on how he felt and if he could make his normal throws in practice throughout the week, and stuff like that often truly is a gametime decision.

Waylee is likely the same way. If it was something that was clearly long term, and that's the information Bohl had from the medical staff, he'd say so (and has in the past).
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Follow along. My post was about Waylee. Additionally, did you have any clue from anything Bohl said that Harsh wouldn’t be suited up. Get back to me on that. He’s never disclosed much about injuries.
 
cowboyz said:
This game could end up deciding who plays in a New Year's bowl game, assuming the winner runs the table and/or wins the conference.. If the season ended right now, it'd be the Pokes in a New Years bowl, as they are the highest ranked G5 team, barely ahead of Air Force. No one is sure what Air Force has this year, as their SOS , to date, is horrible. If they beat the Pokes there's a good chance they run the table and end up 12-0 during the regular season. While the AP and the Coaches polls both have the Pokes ahead of AF, Sagirin, is giving no respect to the Pokes, and that's what Vegas must be looking at, as they love stats. Sagirin has the Pokes really low at #71, below 3 of the teams they beat, App State (#63), Fresno (#55) and Texas Tech (#25). They have AF at #36. This game is huge for both teams. The Pokes will have to prove what they have every game for the rest of the year. I don't see where this is a 10.5 spread.
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That sagarin ranking is an absolute joke. I know it factors in a preseason bias, but still. What bologna
 
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