It's time Air Force (10-12/3-8) vs MWC leading Wyoming (19-4/8-2) in their only matchup in conference play for 2015
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Full Blog at http://www.ricksfalcon...onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;) Note all the links and stats won't come over here so more can be seen at the full blog...Rick '77
I described Air Force's win over New Mexico as a 'workmanlike' game for the Falcons. If that was an apt description then the match-up between the Falcons and the Cowboys will be an old fashioned Western saga focused on rugged individuals circling the wagons on both ends of the court. While Air Force beat New Mexico not with offense but with a stepped up defense, the focus on 'defense' has been the key for Wyoming's success this season and their 19-4 overall record. Who can defend the best in this game will indeed be the winner, no matter how good the offenses are.
the two teams match up evenly on paper in most areas but it is the individual matchups within their offense and defense that stand out in stark contrast to one another.
Team PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
AF 22 -- 66 31 16 6 3 12 47.5 68.0 37.2
Wyo 23 -- 63 31 15 6 3 12 48.0 72.0 33.0
The number that you don't see above that stands out for Wyoming and their defensive effort is points allowed where Wyoming is holding their opponents to only 54ppg while AF is giving up 64ppg. Wow, a 10 point difference seems like a high mountain to climb, and that is reality as both teams are averaging 60 possessions per game. This indicates how well Wyoming has done on the defensive end of the court and something the Falcons must figure out how to overcome.
In playing and winning, Wyoming's #1/3/4/5/7 scorers are all seniors with #2 a junior. They are an experienced team that have played together and understand where they are going on offense and defense. They are led by a name we know and respect in big man Larry Nance Jr. (who thankfully has had a great recovery off knee surgery in the off-season) 6'8"/235#/16ppg/7.2rpg (note the bigman can shoot the three just doesn't do it often). Adams and Grabau lead from the top with 11/9ppg (along with Hankerson 7ppg) and shoot well while distributing the ball. Neither are afraid to drive the lane. These three have contributed for taking 248 3's of the 390 shot by Wyoming. Forward Cook (8ppg) is tough in the lane and both Nance and Cook had double-doubles in the win over CSU on Wednesday (19pt-10reb/12pt-11reb). That will be the challenge for the Falcons. Their strength in rebounding is from players outside the line 'flying' to the ball/glass looking to rebound...must block out. (Full player stats scroll to the bottom). You can watch the Wyoming vs CSU Here.
Air Force knows and understands what Wyoming is going to do on both ends of the court, and while they are doing it with seniors and juniors, the Falcons will always have at least one freshman/sophomore or more in the lineup. But the depth AF now has will reap benefits in this game and can, if used correctly, negate the experience factor of Wyoming. While the matchup on defense will be extremely tough for AF, the tempo of the game is more in their favor vs the Cowboys than many others in the conference who are more of the push the ball teams and offenses. As we play very deliberate as do the Cowboys, it will be a matchup of wills and the ability to deny the lane and penetration.
On offense the Falcons will expect to see Wyoming switch between man and zone throughout the game. I have not seen many of their games but they generally do not press rather relying on getting back on defense. The Falcons must run their offense with one goal at the top of the list and that is to take care of the ball. With limited possessions in this game due to both deliberate offenses, taking care of the ball limiting turnovers (or creating them on defense) is a must. Let the ball do the work and make their defends move their feet. They have length and quickness so need to be smart and 'snappy' in the movement.
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The big men for Wyoming are their keys to success in many ways and the Falcons must be wary of them but attack on offense. Using the offense to cut and move inside and attacking the glass will force their bigs to move more, possibly get frustrated and then the foul potential goes up. Be aware of the shot blocking ability they have but do not be afraid of it. Attack the look for the inside out pass for a good look from the arc.
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Must find success early in 'our' house from the arc. Not to win by the three, but to make them extend their defense. Very similar to what they will try to do.
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Air Force's defense must find ways to double-down inside when the bigs get the ball but use the same quick feet they did in the second half vs NM to find their outside shooters. Finding a way to limit (I did not say stop) Nance will go a long way to finding success for the Air Force defense. Note that the Cowboys have been up and down at times with taking care of the ball themselves with 12 tpg (same as AF). They actually had 3 more (12-9) TOs in their win versus a cold shooting CSU team. Take advantage when we get an extra possession and find ways to score.
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Free throws will never be more important than in this game. The numbers look close overall in the stats but in conference play AF is at 65% FT while Wyoming is 75%. This is a battle that must be won to win at the buzzer.
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The unknown factor in this game will be the crowd and the atmosphere at Clune Arena. Word on the street is that Wyoming fans are trying to mass support and hoping to bring 1000+ fans to USAFA. It is incumbent for AF to have fan and Cadet Wing/Section 8 support Saturday. I'll be there, make sure you are too!
GO FALCONS....BEAT WYOMING