2014 Predictions

[Larawie]

Don't know how we got from Predictions to Decisions, but here goes. Seems to me if a kid is decidin' on a school only because of its size and location, he hasn't given it much thought. Nor have his parents and others who should offer advice if they're truly educators and coaches interested in their students.

After my son's senior HS season (he played in the state's highest classification, in a major metropolitan area and was All Conference 3 x), his Mom, HC, academic advisor, he and I sat down and discussed all the options and opportunities. Walk-on at FBS, partial $$ at FCS or full ride at small D-II in a small town? Opted for the D-II cuz he wanted to get away, try somethin' new and different, knew he'd play, get an education and was realistic in his chances of becomin' a professional athlete. Not sayin' it works out for every kid, but in our case it did. jmo

Kudos to your kid, and kudos to you for raising a kid who has his priorities correct.

But to assume most kids with multiple D1 offers think that way is incorrect.

This isn't the 60's where Wyoming has the swag that appeals to 18 year olds.
We are a small town. Our administration and AD have no balls and no vision. We as a fan base are fine with being small potatoes.

We love our Pokes yes, but the New Mexico fans love their Lobos, CSU fans love their Sheep, CU fans love their Buffs.

Every school sells how much the fans love them to recruits. We aren't special in that, and the fact that everyone else does it too, means it isn't really an advantage.

Sure, we are the only show in the state, but then again, we have a half million in our state. SDSU has more support in their city alone than we have in our entire state.

18 year old kids with multiple FBS offers take advantage of what they can and realize that a college degree at this school versus that school won't be what leads them to a successful life. They want to be part of some sort of legacy, or tradition, or at least be part of what is trending right then.

OR...kids that want to go to a legit football program are not coming here because like pointed out, we are 2-1 in Bowl Games in the last, 20 years?

We can sell what we have, and sell what we truly believe we are building with Bohl and Shyatt, but let's not act like all kids have their priorities straight, and if they did UW is the school for them.

I'm not assumin' anythin'. What I'm sayin' is that parents need to sit down with their kids and discuss reality. Both see that D-I flag flyin' and expect to also see $$ attached. Bein' part of a legacy is short-sighted versus havin' the opportunity to play, get an education AND become a responsible member of society. Agree my kid is an aberration, but trust that in the position he's been placed, he's educatin' his students and the athletes he coaches on what to expect if, or when, their playin' days are over. Basically, parents need to be more responsible and inter-active without bein' helicopters. Don't want my kid livin' in the basement while majorin' in how to super-size.

 

[Dutchnation]

Neither of you guys are giving enough credit to the recruiters (ie. Coach Bohl, recruiting coordinator, and most important...the guys on the team!)

To give you some context...I am a full time coach at the collegiate level. Recruting is my life...I do it 97% of the time I am working. I coach 2% and I read Wyonation the other 1%. (ok...slight exagerations).

My point...I coach at a small D3 school. when I got here we were one of the worst teams in the region. I have since pulled 4 kids away from d1 scholarships to compete for me. We finished in the top 6 in the NCAA last year. I convinced them that education, time with the head coach, being a part of something larger than themselves, the opportunity to be a part of a family etc were all things they could have here. Could they have them at the d1 school? In theory yes...but I challenged them to really look closely at the program and look at the athletes that have gone before them. A lot of them had disappeared or weren't even on the team anymore. Most of them had gotten their schollys pulled. My point is....the recruiters are 97% of what gets a kid to come to the school. the town, and location are VERY VERY VERY small in the grand scheme of things. And once you get a few and have some success....doors get opened.

Here is a scenario for you....Billy is the top d-end in the entire region of a midwest state. Every single underclassmen Qb, running back and offensive linemen knows who he is and how amazing he is. he is getting calls from Iowa, Iowa State, Nebraska, but they aren't offering a scholarship yet. Wyoming has offered, but he is waiting to see what happens. This "wait and see" period is extremely important for the coaches to keep in touch (not too much) and make sure the recruit is getting the message that they are wanted. If Wyoming can land this kid (and believe me is less often than not that it happens) but if WYO can get this kid, then every single underclassmen player that knew of him and feared him on friday night now has a WYO seed planted. And then, when Bohl has another recruit in that area who do you think Bohl is going to have call him? Maddog? the trainers? nope....that ridiculously good defensive end that terrorized every hs qb the season before.

Long story...but my point is that recruiting is successful because of people.....and facilities. we have the facilities. Trust me....We are on par with Iowa...easily. And now with Bohl, we have a guy with great character and he wears his heart on his sleeve.

Some people say "well we thought that with Glenn too".

I can tell you right now...I am confident we have a man with good character leading this team, and the recruits will see that. We won't have to worry about seeing Coach Bohl flipping off a team for doing an onside kick or Howdy Doody-gate because he is a man that does things right.

The recruiting starts and ends with Coach Bohl and his staff. The town and location are small parts of it.

Boysee state was able to do it...if they can....we can.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Talent evaluation and coaching FAR supersedes recruiting for schools in our position. In other words, a great evaluator of talent and a great set of coaches will get you much farther than a great recruiter.

A kid with a P5 offer will not come to WYO 95% of the time or more even if we somehow achieved BSU level success and it has nothing to do with Laramie or Wyoming; it is strictly the P5 vs. G5 designation (and all the benefits, perceived prestige, etc. that go with P5).

There is more than enough talent out there to be highly successful in CFB. Our recruiting "disadvantages" is nothing more than a cop out for a failing Athletic Administration.

 

[Dutchnation]

Talent evaluation and coaching FAR supersedes recruiting for schools in our position. In other words, a great evaluator of talent and a great set of coaches will get you much farther than a great recruiter.

A kid with a P5 offer will not come to WYO 95% of the time or more even if we somehow achieved BSU level success and it has nothing to do with Laramie or Wyoming; it is strictly the P5 vs. G5 designation (and all the benefits, perceived prestige, etc. that go with P5).

There is more than enough talent out there to be highly successful in CFB. Our recruiting "disadvantages" is nothing more than a cop out for a failing Athletic Administration.

I agree with you. But I also see an opportunity. The benefits that come with being P5 are also available at Wyoming....part of the key is figuring out how we are different than CSewe and Fresno st. and sdsu. Bohl is DEAD ON!!! Recruit kids from Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa. Especially Wisconsin. I used to live in Green Bay and when I told people I was from Wyoming their eyes lit up. They think highly of our great state because of the hunting, outdoor life. That's what those 320lb 6'5" guys like.

Is it a challenge? Absolutely. Impossible...heck no. a little success people...and they will start coming. Boise got to a point where they were thought of as equals with PAC 12 schools and even some SEC schools when talking prospective recruits.

so...this begs the questions....will we have access to the big games at the end of the season if we (G5) go undefeated? If we don't, then people will again question the current format. We have to the impossible. We have to win our non conference games at the beginning of the season against the P5. And we need to do it consistently....just like we did there for a short time with Utah, TCU, BSU etc...

 

[Larawie]

I find the last few posts on here very interestin' and intriguin'. So, rather than exclude anyone else, I'm gonna start a new thread called Decisions. Decisions. lets all go there to continue. This is provin' to be a good topic and the opinions posted are, I believe, worthy of a dedicated thread. Talk with ya soon.

 

[HighPlainsDrifter]

Dutchnation - thank you. You have articulated it very well.

And just to clarify something - I agree there are some recruits who will be less than impressed by the small town of Laramie. But EVERY school has its plusses and minuses. If location was ALL that mattered, SDSU would consistently win the conference. But they don't. Why? Well, the community barely knows they exist, they play in an NFL stadium that is 70% empty, and they too have suffered from bad coaching (until Brady Hoke, anyway).

CSU may be bigger, but so what? If enrollment mattered, Notre Dame and TCU would never compete for anything, and we know this isn't the case. And UNLV would consistently challenge for the conference crown - again, clearly not the case. Oh, and we probably wouldn't be 4-1 against the Sheep over the last 5 years.

Wyoming is in a small town, yes, but we have above average facilities, solid academics, and a true college atmosphere. Thank goodness Coaches Bohl and Shyatt choose to focus on our strengths, rather than sitting around making excuses for the so-called recruiting obstacles that "can't be overcome."

I'm driving my daughter to Laramie next week to begin her freshman year. She could have gone to one of our local, in-state schools (UNLV or UNR) but wanted to experience a true college town with a strong sense of community amongst the students, and she also recognized that the quality of education would be much better than at one of the poorly funded Nevada schools. While not an athlete, she does represent an example of someone who appreciates what UW has to offer. And for anyone who has lived outside of Wyoming and doesn't always recognize the positives of what they have available, it is quite a bit.

 

[bladerunnr]

I had no intention of opening this can of worms all over again. So.....let me give my prediction - 3-9

Just because.

On a happier note, I think the mens and womens cross country teams will be very good this year.

 

[kansasCowboy]

I had no intention of opening this can of worms all over again. So.....let me give my prediction - 3-9

Just because.

On a happier note, I think the mens and womens cross country teams will be very good this year.

No intention too, yet you give your prediction again?

 

[JimmyDimes]

I will go with 7-6 or 8-5. Thing are looking up in Laramie.

 

[bladerunnr]

I had no intention of opening this can of worms all over again. So.....let me give my prediction - 3-9

Just because.

On a happier note, I think the mens and womens cross country teams will be very good this year.

No intention too, yet you give your prediction again?

I was being facetious. But a dullard like you wouldn't understand.

 

[Robert Martin]

is there a vegas line anywhere?

No. FCS games don't have lines. The Massey Ratings are pretty good though. LINK

To all who think that Wyoming will beat Boise this year, god bless your optimism in August.

Here's mine:
Aug. 30 - Montana - W
Sept. 6 - Air Force - W
Sept. 13 - @Oregon - LOL
Sept. 20 - Florida Atlantic - W
Sept. 27 - @Michigan State - LOL
Oct. 4 - Bye
Oct. 11 - @Hawaii - L
Oct. 18 - San Jose State - W
Oct. 25 - @Colorado State - L
Nov. 1 - @Fresno State - L
Nov. 7 - Utah State - L
Nov. 15 - Bye
Nov. 22 - Boise State - L
Nov. 29 - @New Mexico - L

Utah State and New Mexico games might be close.

Yes there is a line 5dimes Wyoming is a -3 1/2

 

[NowherePoke]

Uh, 3-9. Another FCS coach who is making a big leap up in competition. I'm a skeptic. Here's the problem as I see it: We are by far the smallest school in the league in the smallest town in the league. That's a recruiting obstacle that cannot be overcome. For every recruit that might appreciate a small school and small community, there are probably 10 who won't even consider coming to Laramie.

The very fact we have to start a qb who probably wouldn't see the field on any other team in the league tells you all you need to know.

3-9 is realistic (I am leaning more towards 4-8 or 5-7, but what's the difference really?).

However, I disagree with the remainder of your post for the most part. Here's why:

1. Size of school - Not really that relevant overall. University of North Texas has about a million students (just an estimate) and TCU has fewer than Wyoming, yet there is no comparison in the programs (I use them as an example since they are located in pretty much the same metro area, although Denton is on the edge).

2. Size of town - This is a more legitimate differentiator between programs, but if you look at the upper end of college football, you will find that small to mid-size college towns dominate the landscape. Laramie is small, even by those standards, but for the most part recruits aren't being courted by schools in urban, densely populated centers (there are exceptions of course). Tons of P5 schools in small college communities (Pullman, Corvallis, Ames, Iowa City, Columbia, Manhattan, Stillwater, College Station, Starkville, Oxford, Bloomington, etc.).

3. Size of state - You don't mention this, but in reality this is the biggest obstacle to success at UW. It's not the difficulty in general recruiting, it's the fact that we don't have a hometown advantage for a core of prospects. Wyoming produces 0-2 FBS caliber players per year and less than 1 MWC caliber Men's BB recruit every year. Compare that to say Utah. Like Shyatt, Krystowiak took over a program in rough shape playing in a tough league. One key difference? Krystowiak has legitimate top 100 players right down the street in guys like Loveridge, Chapman, etc. Shyatt and Bohl doesn't have that luxury.

4. QB - It is silly to relate the current QB problems to some larger point about how awful it is to be associated with UW. The QB issue is due to well documented issues involving the coaching change. Smith/Thompson were both high level MWC QB prospects (Smith proved it on the field, Thompson got a scholarship at a P12 school). For various reasons they both departed early and the current staff was left to cobble something together at a very late date. I agree that it is bleak for 2014 (which is why I say your 3-9 prediction is unfortunately realistic), but I don't think it can be used to support any larger point as it is a one year deal as a result of a combination of issues.

 

[Wyo2dal]

Sites like this predict Bohls first year will be really rocky going 2-10 with a chance against New Mexico, FL Atlantic, Hawaii & SJSU meaning the absolute best this team will see is 6-6.

I believe the Pokes conditioning will be better than it has been over the past 4-5 years and our defense will surprise people in Laramie. They will wear on the opposing teams at a level that we haven't seen before. The TOP will be in our favor which is why I Predicted 6-6 as well, But I think we will shock teams we shouldn't and lose to teams we should beat.

Here is our predicted schedule.

 

[J-Rod]

-3.5 spread for Montana. Vegas is clearly not drinking the Bohl kool-aid. If 3.5 is it for an FCS school, I doubt Wyoming will be favored in any other games.

 

[hithere]

Yes there is a line 5dimes Wyoming is a -3 1/2

Yes, you're absolutely right about the offshore lines. I was referring to Vegas or Nevada lines in a brick and mortar book (or William Hill).

 

[hithere]

Sites like this predict Bohls first year will be really rocky going 2-10 with a chance against New Mexico, FL Atlantic, Hawaii & SJSU meaning the absolute best this team will see is 6-6.

I believe the Pokes conditioning will be better than it has been over the past 4-5 years and our defense will surprise people in Laramie. They will wear on the opposing teams at a level that we haven't seen before. The TOP will be in our favor which is why I Predicted 6-6 as well, But I think we will shock teams we shouldn't and lose to teams we should beat.

Here is our predicted schedule.

This is Massey, yes?

Another good one, I think, is from Football Outsiders and their College Football Almanac. They have most probable Wyoming win total percentage at 4-8 with a 30% chance. 3-5 in conference with a 29% chance. The outliers are 7-5 at 2% and 1-11 at 2%.

I don't disagree.

 

[wyopig]

-3.5 spread for Montana. Vegas is clearly not drinking the Bohl kool-aid. If 3.5 is it for an FCS school, I doubt Wyoming will be favored in any other games.

We will if we kick Montana's ass. Nobody knows if Wyoming will be good, bad, or somewhere in the middle this year. I can't wait to see us play so that I can dial in my expectations.

 

[WYCowboy]

-3.5 spread for Montana. Vegas is clearly not drinking the Bohl kool-aid. If 3.5 is it for an FCS school, I doubt Wyoming will be favored in any other games.

We will if we kick Montana's ass. Nobody knows if Wyoming will be good, bad, or somewhere in the middle this year. I can't wait to see us play so that I can dial in my expectations.

Exactly - that's the way I see it too.

 

[BeaverPoke]

I really think it is going to be hard to get a good read on the team til about 8 games in.

We start with 2 bad teams (Montana isn't bad but they are FCS, and AFA is genuinely bad...Montana would be able to beat AFA...in the Springs)

Then we play Oregon who will likely kill us.
The FAU game might give us a real look, but then again we might be hurt from Oregon.
Michigan State will likely demolish us.

Hawaii is really bad.
SJSU will likely be really bad.

Then CSU, who is pretty good.

The Hawaii, SJSU, and CSU games should tell us who we are.
Hard to figure it out when we should be dominating or getting dominated.

 

[fromolwyoming]

I really think it is going to be hard to get a good read on the team til about 8 games in.

We start with 2 bad teams (Montana isn't bad but they are FCS, and AFA is genuinely bad...Montana would be able to beat AFA...in the Springs)

Then we play Oregon who will likely kill us.
The FAU game might give us a real look, but then again we might be hurt from Oregon.
Michigan State will likely demolish us.

Hawaii is really bad.
SJSU will likely be really bad.

Then CSU, who is pretty good.

The Hawaii, SJSU, and CSU games should tell us who we are.
Hard to figure it out when we should be dominating or getting dominated.

Other than their QB, who does CSU return? They lost nearly their entire o-line, that back that no one can remember his name, and their star players on defense. I just don't get all the love for them. Bowl eligible? Possibly. A conference powerhouse? Not until they score points on USU and come within 3 TDs of BSU.