Wyoming, 2015 NBA draft

[WestWYOPoke]

Problem is that Larry is only 6'8", in the NBA that is a bit small for power forward, closer to small forward size. He'll have trouble with a traditional inside game, he'll need that outside shot more if he wants to compete at that level.

 

[fromolwyoming]

Problem is that Larry is only 6'8", in the NBA that is a bit small for power forward, closer to small forward size. He'll have trouble with a traditional inside game, he'll need that outside shot more if he wants to compete at that level.

He can develop it, in the meantime, his ability on defense is pretty good and can contribute there. He also goes up against bigger players fairly often, so there is that. His athleticism is also top notch.

 

[Bryoming]

There are plenty of solid post players Larry's height in the NBA. His height isn't going to help him, but he'll still be able to have a solid career.

Carlos Boozer - 6'9"
Boris Diaw - 6'8"
Zach Randolph - 6'9"
Paul Millsap - 6'8"
Taj Gibson - 6'9"

Look at a guy like Joakim Noah. He was considered to be undersized weight-wise when it was draft day for him, but he's become a power on the defensive end.

 

[NowherePoke]

There are plenty of solid post players Larry's height in the NBA. His height isn't going to help him, but he'll still be able to have a solid career.

Carlos Boozer - 6'9"
Boris Diaw - 6'8"
Zach Randolph - 6'9"
Paul Millsap - 6'8"
Taj Gibson - 6'9"

Look at a guy like Joakim Noah. He was considered to be undersized weight-wise when it was draft day for him, but he's become a power on the defensive end.

The only guy on that list that Nance could hope to emulate would be Gibson. The other guys are quite a bit thicker than Nance and some of them have more developed perimeter skills (Diaw and Millsap).

Gibson at 6'9", 225 (I think he looks bigger than that personally, but that is where he is listed) is probably the best example.

I think Nance can play in the NBA, but he won't be drafted as an undersized PF coming off a serious knee injury.

The main thing for Nance will be regaining his explosiveness. He is not nearly as bouncy right now as he was before the injury (or even a month ago to my eye, but I could be hallucinating). Look back at some clips from games last year (DU, SDSU, etc.) and compare that to recent games. No comparison IMO. He is still pretty productive at this level because he is very skilled, but he won't be able to get some of those shots off or rebound in traffic at the next level unless he gets back to where he was physically.

I sure hope he does, because he is one of my favorite Pokes of all-time. Great player and ambassador for the program.

 

[WYCowboy]

Let's check back on this at the end of the season. IMO he is still dealing with the mental aspect of his injury.

 

[Cosmic Cowboy]

Nances chances are decent. He needs to get going a little more. You also have to take into account what style of offense they play in. If you saw Nance play anywhere else he'd be THE GUY, getting 60 to 70% or the O production going through him alone. But he plays for a coach that promotes TEAM ball. Everybody is involved. Hence, Nances numbers will reflect that. He is still THE GUY, but his numbers fall based on our style of play. If Nance played on the McClain type teams, then you'd see him putting scoring numbers like Bailey and rebounding numbers like Davis. Intangibles is the key word here. Also Nances numbers would be significantly greater this year, than they are right now, he had two games, Western St. and Regis, where the starters barely played, knocking his "avg" down significantly.

Also let's not get overhyped on Adams just yet. The kid is a baller. But he needs to step up significantly! He's dropped off since the end of last year. If he was consistant with his shots then the rest falls into place, but he needs to be shooting at the level that the young guard from SMU (Nic Moore?) was. That kid has an NBA style touch on his shot, Adams does not. But he has the rest of this year to improve, and he will be THE GUY next year.

Well after seeing them live in person I think this is all pretty true. One thing that is hurting our guys a lot is there just isn't enough horsepower off the bench for them to reboot their energy or take the load off. How much better would Nance and Adams look if they had some guys come into their spots or even work next to them that were a little bit closer to their ability??? I mean I thought Adams was gonna be nasty against Cal then 2 quick fouls and that game is pulled away from him. What's it mean for his game if he could pass the ball to another Adams?? U know what I mean? One thing that bothers me is I wish we had one more DC down low. That would help out both DC and Nance soooooo much. Make everyone of them look better.

We are what we are. Not a super explosive athletic team but more of an organized systematic unit TEAM. We're one more power slasher or one more DC style guy away from being an insanely strong team. We just aren't there this year and it doesn't make our guys look like NBA dudes. It's kinda sad cause this is our best team in a decade and we're one player shy really from being a juggernaut imo.

 

[Cosmic Cowboy]

I'd like to add on too that more horsepower from the bench would also run the opposing teams down even more. Making our stars look even more like STARS shining. More fouls, more energy used on D, and more mental energy used to think "how do we over come this". Uggghhh its our biggest weakness, but I'm still believing I haven't seen this team's best ball yet.

 

[kansasCowboy]

I'd like to add on too that more horsepower from the bench would also run the opposing teams down even more. Making our stars look even more like STARS shining. More fouls, more energy used on D, and more mental energy used to think "how do we over come this". Uggghhh its our biggest weakness, but I'm still believing I haven't seen this team's best ball yet.

So with Shyatts recruiting that means, we will progressively get better.

 

[CowboyCO]

I will add that if larry gets back to where we hope he can, his stats are going to blow up the rest of the season. Should put him at a JR and SR season average of 16/9 which is really comparable to player B (kawhi) 2 seasons.

His stats won't blow up because Wyoming doesn't get enough offensive possessions to support that. His number will continue to improve, but when you average less than 30 possessions per game, 12-14 points is a big night.

 

[Cowduck]

I will add that if larry gets back to where we hope he can, his stats are going to blow up the rest of the season. Should put him at a JR and SR season average of 16/9 which is really comparable to player B (kawhi) 2 seasons.

His stats won't blow up because Wyoming doesn't get enough offensive possessions to support that. His number will continue to improve, but when you average less than 30 possessions per game, 12-14 points is a big night.

Yes, if you look at the his pace-adjusted stats they look much better. Smart FO types at NBA teams will be all over that.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Larry-Nance-42170/stats/

 

[BeaverPoke]

I will add that if larry gets back to where we hope he can, his stats are going to blow up the rest of the season. Should put him at a JR and SR season average of 16/9 which is really comparable to player B (kawhi) 2 seasons.

His stats won't blow up because Wyoming doesn't get enough offensive possessions to support that. His number will continue to improve, but when you average less than 30 possessions per game, 12-14 points is a big night.

12-14 is not a big night.

Adams averaged 12.7 last season, and Nance averaged 15.4, and this season is getting 13.5. 12-14 is below Nance's level. Below where he could and should be anyways.

Adams and Nance playing at elite levels will be averaging more than 12-14. Especially Nance.

 

[laxwyo]

Beaver, please see post about pace adjusted stats

 

[joshvanklomp]

There are times when I wonder if Nance has any weaknesses. Last night was one of those nights. He's such a well-rounded player, that it's hard to see him not in the NBA next season.

However, there are two things that work against him in terms of draft hype.

1. It's Wyoming
2. The low volume numbers (not taking Shyatt's offense into account)

If he can overcome these two things, especially closer to tournament time, he'll be drafted.

 

[PokeOLoco]

Can't forget he's 6"8, but with a wingspan of over 7". His 3% is actually up from last year. We'll see how it plays out, he's on pace to shoot a lot more of them than he has before.

 

[joshvanklomp]

Can't forget he's 6"8, but with a wingspan of over 7".

I'm not saying he should be a top-10 pick. Lack of height is a reason players fall from higher in the draft, but not fall completely out of it.

 

[BeaverPoke]

Nance has 31, 29, and 18 in the last 3 games.
Averaging 26 points per game.

On the season he is averaging over 15, almost 16 ppg.

Still think 12-14 is a big night?

 

[joshvanklomp]

I've been getting this feeling that Larry will end up a Spur in the late 1st. I know it seems high, considering no draft sites are putting him in the draft at all right now.

I think it's similar to the type of under-the-radar draft pick the organization made back in 2008 with George Hill. DraftExpress didn't have him in their mocks until a couple weeks before the draft, and he was never projected higher than 44. He went 26th.

 

[BeaverPoke]

I've been getting this feeling that Larry will end up a Spur in the late 1st. I know it seems high, considering no draft sites are putting him in the draft at all right now.

I think it's similar to the type of under-the-radar draft pick the organization made back in 2008 with George Hill. DraftExpress didn't have him in their mocks until a couple weeks before the draft, and he was never projected higher than 44. He went 26th.

Last season Larry had better OOC numbers than MWC numbers--shocker, who doesn't?
This year? Kind of a slow start due to huge blowouts, getting his ACL up to strength, and more depth. Now, if these last 3 games (and 2 in MW play) are an indications of what he is capable of, he will be improving throughout the rest of the season, and his stock may go from non-existent to pretty solid.

A bunch of wins, points, rebounds, blocks, and either MW D-POY or MWC POY would boost him.