WYO-Nevada, By the Numbers

[kansasCowboy]

Everyone that I've read or heard when talking about this matchup bring up the numbers. Offensive passing for Wyo with Smith playing, Lack of rushing overall. Nevada's amazing Offensive numbers using the Pistol With great rushing both by Fajardo and Jefferson, and a pretty good passing attack as well. Then they talk about each teams defensive numbers... or lack thereof. Honestly, both teams seem to match up really even with each other. But their records say otherwise. Why?
Well, how about some numbers that most seem to pass over every time they look at each teams schedule. How about each teams opponents record so far this season? And how each team fared against those opponents?
Here's how those numbers stack up:

Nevada: 4-1 (Opponent record prior to Wyo: 8-15 (.347) a few quality names, but no opponent has a winning record)
(W) California (1-4) 31-24 (Better than what their rec. show's had some tough losses, but range to a mediocre opponent)
(L) S. Florida (2-3) 31-32 (Has shown it's ups and downs this season, proving that it too is a mediocre opponent)
(W) Nwestern St. (2-3) 45-34 ( Struggled to put away a lower division mediocre opponent)
(W) Hawaii (1-3) 69-24 (Haw. struggles with any opponent who has a pulse, and Nevada had to shootout w/them for a while)
(W) Texas St. (2-2) 34-21 (First year FBS team has played mediocre this year, We know what Wyo did to the same team LY)
(?) Wyoming (1-3) ?-? (Wyoming is solid Offensively when not injured, Def, creates TO's when unnecessary, but still poor)

Wyoming: 1-3 (Opponent record prior to Nev: 12-6 (.667) Good quality opponents)
(L) #15 Texas (4-0) 17-37 (Team that has a good Offense this year and a mediocre D)
(L) Toledo (4-1) 31-34 ( TU show's it offensive strength every game, Def has woes, but team could win out)
(L) Cal Poly (4-0) 22-24 (Solid lower division team, had a break with so many Wyo injuries)
(W) Idaho (0-5) 40-37 (Inconsistency on Offense, show's up one week, struggles the next. No Def.)
(?) Nevada (4-1) ?-? (Nevada is strong Offensively with great playmakers, Defense is poor, usually wins in a shootout)

So, if this be the case, might this game seem closer than it appears?
I'm going for the Wyo upset: Wyo 45- Nevada-42

 

[J-Rod]

Its Thursday.....numbers and various stats won't save either team come Saturday. I think UNR wins because IMO, UW has looked terrible all around. Remove Smith, and its scary to think how bad things could get. A slim victory over the hapless Vandals didn't get me giddy at all. This Smith goes deep and gets drilled offense won't work all year.

Plus, Reno is a tough place to play. Not with crowd noise or anything like that, but they are rarely beaten there.

Talk is cheap though......we will know more Saturday. You can never surely know what will happen in college football. Wyoming could very well pull off the shocker.....they could also lose by 40+ points....

 

[kansasCowboy]

Of course we need to wait till, saturday. But, We've been downing on Wyo playing UNR all week just because of numbers. So, I offered numbers that everyone seems to bypass. UNR's numbers are over inflated by playing no one. Wyo, has played a by far tougher schedule.

 

[WyoBrandX]

I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow. I will be watching to find out. But here is what I think is happening:

1.) Our coaching staff has been far more aggressive this year than any other year since the changeover. Attempting to score with a minute left in the half - etc, instead of taking a knee and going to the locker room.

2.) This year doesn't appear to be the year of half-time adjustments. The last few years, how we start is generally how we finish, minus some flukes like WYO @ SDSU two years ago.

3.) They have yanked Austin Traphagan's redshirt - I believe this is an attempt to make the oline stronger.

4.) They have yanked Jason Thompson's redshirt - we now have 3 eligible quarterbacks and they were doing some weird stuff in this formation @ Idaho. Hopefully, we are a little less desperate this game and the line is more solid with the avent of #3.

5.) We had a bye week - I hope this means Tormey has reworked some of the key parts of defense to address some of the problems we have been having - expecially with the run. At the end of the day, Air Force usually has a hell of a defense for generally having smaller players. Some of it is scheme, some of it is discipline.

I hope this game marks the turning point we need to get this thing back on track!