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Wyo @ AFA

BeaverPoke

Well-known member
Howdy Doody!

AFA beat Colgate, and got a whole bunch of rush yards on them. No surprise there.
Then USU and Boise State both destroyed the AFA defense. Through the air and on the ground.

USU put up 577 yards on AFA. 360 in the air. 217 on the ground. And scored 52 points.
Boise put up 533 yards on AFA. 304 in the air. 229 on the ground. And scored 42 points.

USU went 11/15 on 3rd down.
Boise went 8/10 on 3rd down.

If Brett can heal up, and be 100% on Saturday night, Wyo should put up 40+ points on AFA.
The offense needs to get back into their groove. The groove they were in against Nebraska, and the 2nd&3rd quarters against Idaho, and the 2nd quarter against UNC.

Hopefully they were taking it easy because of Bretts ankle, and it can heal.

I say Wyo wins 49-27.
DC will want to beat Calhoun, badly.
The offense should get back to where they belong, and AFA can't handle that type of offense.
AFA will put up some points because Calhoun will try and do everything he can to not get blown out by DC.
 
J-Rod said:
Pokes are -2.5 point favorite. Toss-up according to Vegas.

Toss-up? Usually the home team is given 7 points out of the gate for being the home team. By Wednesday I would bet that Wyoming is 10 point favorites IF Bret Smith is practicing.
 
one-smooth-poke said:
J-Rod said:
Pokes are -2.5 point favorite. Toss-up according to Vegas.

Toss-up? Usually the home team is given 7 points out of the gate for being the home team. By Wednesday I would bet that Wyoming is 10 point favorites IF Bret Smith is practicing.

No way the line will move that much. 3 to 4 point favorites max against a team that has beaten us 6 out of the last 7 years.
 
BeaverPoke said:
Howdy Doody!

AFA beat Colgate, and got a whole bunch of rush yards on them. No surprise there.
Then USU and Boise State both destroyed the AFA defense. Through the air and on the ground.

USU put up 577 yards on AFA. 360 in the air. 217 on the ground. And scored 52 points.
Boise put up 533 yards on AFA. 304 in the air. 229 on the ground. And scored 42 points.

USU went 11/15 on 3rd down.
Boise went 8/10 on 3rd down.

If Brett can heal up, and be 100% on Saturday night, Wyo should put up 40+ points on AFA.
The offense needs to get back into their groove. The groove they were in against Nebraska, and the 2nd&3rd quarters against Idaho, and the 2nd quarter against UNC.

Hopefully they were taking it easy because of Bretts ankle, and it can heal.

I say Wyo wins 49-27.
DC will want to beat Calhoun, badly.
The offense should get back to where they belong, and AFA can't handle that type of offense.
AFA will put up some points because Calhoun will try and do everything he can to not get blown out by DC.
Beav, I think you're right about this one. Between Smith's rolled ankle and this game coming up, I think the offense was more than a little distracted and didn't quite have their heads in the game.

There's a serious revenge factor at work here, and I think our defense is capable of corralling AFA's option game by dominating the line and clogging the lanes. Although I'm not a big believer in such things- karma can be a bitch. DC already got his comeuppance, Calhoun's still due his. 'Pokes are looking to embarrass him in this one. If they play fired up, but disciplined and steady, they run away with this one by at least two scores.
 
one-smooth-poke said:
J-Rod said:
Pokes are -2.5 point favorite. Toss-up according to Vegas.

Toss-up? Usually the home team is given 7 points out of the gate for being the home team. By Wednesday I would bet that Wyoming is 10 point favorites IF Bret Smith is practicing.
It's money that moves lines more than anything. Wyoming's a favorite of the sharps and pros, but the volume of public money keeps the line movement kind of low. It might get bet up to 4 or even 5, but that's about it. If Smith doesn't look good this week, look for the 'dog-fave to swing the other way...
 
Your offense should be able to move the ball very easily. This AF team is poor on D.
I would expect AF (read Awinni) to have improved and they will score some.
Pokes should win by 3 + scores in my mind

Hope Smith is ready to go for you guys. He's a great player to watch.


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one-smooth-poke said:
J-Rod said:
Pokes are -2.5 point favorite. Toss-up according to Vegas.

Toss-up? Usually the home team is given 7 points out of the gate for being the home team. By Wednesday I would bet that Wyoming is 10 point favorites IF Bret Smith is practicing.

I thought home field was "typically" worth 3 points, no?

Either way, we just lost our fastest LB for the game (Wacha) and our QB is nursing an ankle.

It will be closer than most people are guessing...no way UW blows them out. In fact, if we start as pathetically shitty against AFA (as we did against both Idaho & UNC), we have a great chance at getting our asses handed to us.
 
The game against AFA could go either way. But, based on what I've seen on them this year....against USU and Boise, I think they would have a hard time against Idaho (they played well against Northern Illinois).

DC needs to remind his troops what type of a turd ball Calhoun is and the stunts they pulled on Wyoming last year to light a fire. If he does, I think we win comfortably.
 
While AFA is primarily a triple option running team, what scares me the most is when they pass. I saw the BSU safeties bite on the run and get beat deep middle a lot. That was our problem last year against them also. The key to this game is the play and awareness of our safeties. We cant let any receiver release without being hit. Those plays just kill the momentum of a defense.
 
mwc fan said:
While AFA is primarily a triple option running team, what scares me the most is when they pass. I saw the BSU safeties bite on the run and get beat deep middle a lot. That was our problem last year against them also. The key to this game is the play and awareness of our safeties. We cant let any receiver release without being hit. Those plays just kill the momentum of a defense.

The nice thing is that I don't think Huff will bite too often. He's very experienced and makes smart plays overall. He obviously can't cover everything on his own, but at least he's back there.
 
From Don Best:

Wyoming
Date Pos Player Injury Status
09/16/13 QB Brett Smith Ankle injured last game, probable Saturday vs. Air Force
09/16/13 WR Keenan Montgomery Arm injured last game, "?" Saturday vs. Air Force
09/16/13 LB Lucas Wacha Head injured last game, "?" Saturday vs. Air Force
09/16/13 WR Trey Norman Undisclosed injured last game, "?" Saturday vs. Air Force
09/16/13 OL Tyler Strong Undisclosed "?" Saturday vs. Air Force
09/15/13 WR Jalen Claiborne Suspension "?" Saturday vs. Air Force
09/15/13 LB Siaosi Hala'api'api Knee "?" Saturday vs. Air Force
09/10/13 CB Tyran Finley Leg out for season

The spread most likely opened this way because of the injuries. As news comes out on Smith, public money may move the line a few points. It all depends.

I will be betting the shit out of the ML though (-140 today) if news comes back that Smith will be playing. And from what we know about Smith's competitiveness, I'm confident that he will.

EDIT: And it's already up to -175.
 
mwc fan said:
While AFA is primarily a triple option running team, what scares me the most is when they pass. I saw the BSU safeties bite on the run and get beat deep middle a lot. That was our problem last year against them also. The key to this game is the play and awareness of our safeties. We cant let any receiver release without being hit. Those plays just kill the momentum of a defense.

USU and Boise both waxed Air Force, but I rewatched both games and against USU Air Force dropped a TON of passes that definitly affected the outcome of the game. huge drops that killed drives that would have tied the game, etc early on. That Boise game was competitive for quite a while.

Awini, although his last name is horrible, played decent against Boise State.

My :twocents: ..... If AFA defense sucks and we can move the ball and score a lot, they are done. Air Force is not a team that can light up a scoreboard in a quarter. If our D can make some stops and our O can actaully get it in the dam endzone in the first quarter, we will be fine. A 2 td lead is "usually" safe vs HowdyDoodies. They cant usually pass their way back into a game.

On the other hand, AFA could come out with as much fire as we do becuase of getting mauled by USU and BSU worse than Roy Horn bya white tiger.

My final score guess is 38-28 UW.
 
The home team isn't always given 3 points. In college it can be anywhere from 0 points all the way up to 6 depending on how good the team is. They have power ratings for this from the beginning of the season all the way to the end that get adjusted each week by the sportsbooks.

I think the line is a little low because of the injuries just like has already been stated in this thread. The fact that the line came out only -2.5 is a little worrisome as it almost looks too easy. If Brett is mobile then I think Wyoming will take care of business but if he can't run that well then I think we might be in trouble in this game.

Honestly I think that is pretty much what it comes down to this game is Brett's mobility. If he is mobile I can see Wyoming scoring as much as they want to and getting 50 points but if he is one dimensional AND Air Forces receivers can catch a pass then I wouldn't be surprised if we get beat. That's the other thing is AFA's qb looks pretty good but their receivers drop half of the passes thrown to them.

Lets hope Brett is healthy and mobile.
 
Here's to a good game with no injuries for either team. For those traveling down I-25, be safe and we will see you at Falcon Stadium. It will indeed be an interesting game....which team will show up wearing Blue and Silver for the Falcons? Here's my thoughts.....

Which way will the Falcons go? Next up: Air Force vs Wyoming


Read full blog entry at http://ricksfalconreview.blogspot.com/

Kickoff for Air Force vs Wyoming is 8:15pm MST on Saturday ESPN-U

The intrigue is all over for the Falcons. They can no longer hide from their weaknesses as they have been exposed two weeks in a row. No, the season is far from over and the potential for Air Force to turn the corner both figuratively and in reality as an option team first, is still there. But the question now will be: Can they do it against a resurgent Wyoming team that has become known as a potent threat on the offensive side of the ball? Combine that with the ill will that surfaced from the Wyoming head coach after last years game and it makes the Saturday kickoff even more interesting.

Air Force may have played their toughest two MWC opponents in Utah State and a Boise State team that began the season in the top 25. The quarterbacks for these two teams both ran and passed exceptionally well and are the first two of at least five QBs Air Force will face in that mold with Wyoming's being the next we will face. Looking ahead at their schedule and how future opponents have done so far this season, makes Air Force's need to make corrections more dire or a winning season will be in doubt. Notre Dame is looming in October. Both Army and Navy are playing well on both sides of the ball and scoring. CSU and UNLV got big wins this weekend to motivate them. And then there is Wyoming who stayed with Nebraska and then exploded in their last two games versus lesser teams.

So where does Air Force go from here? I believe the Falcons have grown tremendously on the offensive side of the ball from their conference opening loss to Utah State to playing at Boise State this past Friday. On the offensive side of the ball we have seen a young sophomore QB Awini grow tremendously from his first ever start to last game at BSU. His passing overall has to be graded as 'good' by making overall good decisions, disguising the play action pass and putting the ball in catchable locations for his receivers. His running and seeing holes when keeping the ball is good and is deceptively quick along the line. I believe he needs to grow in his own confidence to see when he should pitch more often versus keeping the ball. The lack of getting the TBs involved in the game is a key cog missing in the rushing attack. For AF to be consistent for 60 minutes each and every game on offense both Lee and LaCoste must be used and involved. Broad Hart is making a name for himself at the FB spot and has really been the key to when AF has had success on the ground. To me, in many ways he runs with the same aggressiveness yet elusiveness of Jarod Tew.

Lastly, on the offensive side there are two areas on the opposite ends of the spectrum: Placekicker versus receivers. Will Conant may rewrite the book for AF placekicker if he continues his performance. He is 5-5 FG and 7-7 PAT and has his confidence about him. The receivers, on the other hand, continue to not make highlight reel catches, on the contrary two games in a row they have missed multiple perfectly thrown passes (as seen by us viewers in the stands or on TV) in both losses that had major affects on the Falcons field position, possible scores and/or keeping drives alive. They have excellent potential as seen by several good moves and catches, but it is the misses we all remember and even posters on other team's sports forum talk about.

Defense...the Air Force defense. No need to beat a dead horse here. Teams are throwing soft and to the sidelines extensively in all three games we have played. Our defenders are playing soft at a minimum 5yds (or more) off the receivers to keep them in front of us they then come up strong to make the stop. Problem is opponents are making catches (my number here) 90% of the time and either have space to gain more yardage, find the defender unable to battle through the blocker thus good yards/catch or we miss the open field tackle. Then combine that with minimal pressure by the defensive line who appear to be getting little help from the linebacker corps to provide pressure in the QB. One game is an anomaly, but two games of high percentage completions due to the conditions stated above (ex: BSU QB 27 of 29 passes made...ouch)means something is broken. Look at it this way: Versus Colgate's smaller offensive line we were able to make adjustments resulting in putting pressure on their QB and we slowed down the passing. Bigger offensive lines vs USU &BSU equaled no pressure and pass happy offense all night long.

In Saturday night's late 8:15pm MST kickoff (that a whole other story we could discuss...I think the stands may be quite empty)versus Wyoming, I think we may see a very high scoring game and the winner will be the team that can actually get one or two stops that will make the difference. The Falcon's offense is beginning to find it's identity and a potent play action passing attack along with the option can be deadly. Wyoming's big lines on both sides of the ball combined with their explosive QB can and will move the ball. It may come down to who scores last or who's placekicker puts the ball through the uprights. 'If' Air Force can make some adjustments on the defensive side of the ball I think they will win this. But it begins with a significant change in attitude and execution on the defensive side of the ball for Air Force.

Go Falcons....Beat Wyoming
GO FALCONS
 
Good write up.
But I'm going with 49-27.
DC doesn't like Calhoun. He wants to run up the score. He is going to release a whole bunch of new offensive plays.
Pokes will score early and often. Then some more.
People talked all week last week about Nick Sabans "revenge" games. THIS is a real revenge game.
It's gonna be great.
 
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