Transfer portal - is it really ultimately good for (most) players?

[wwplayer]

With the bulk of the bb team entering the transfer portal, I am really wondering if the brave new world of college sports will ultimately prove to be a bit of a disaster for a large number of the players who enter it. Of course, Ike will land on his feet. Maybe a few of the others. But what about some of the more marginal ones? Will they find a new home? There's a lot of schools out there who will be shopping, but how many of them will be seriously looking at refugees from a train wreck that was this last season? Lots of questions there. I'm not sure if all of the info is correct or current, but I went on the 247Sports site to check the Wyoming football portal guys and saw that out of the 11 Cowboys in the portal, only 5 of them had found new homes. And only two players (in my opinion) are going to schools (Oregon State & Houston) that might even remotely be considered a step up. Certainly not Louisiana Tech, Hawaii or New Mexico State. Out of all the others ( I think Swen might shoot for the pros), it doesn't look like they have anything cooking, as far as I can tell. And they're from a football team that was actually decent. As for all of these bb players from a terrible team, who's going to be clamoring to sign them up? My other thought is: who's giving advise to all of these young men? My guess is that what we are really seeing is the beginnings of the total collapse of college sports (not just for Wyo). Please discuss!

 

[307bball]

Not sure about total collapse but definitely a major change. Is it good for players? I guess it gives options to players where they previously had less... So that's good, but as always... Part of that option is the freedom to make a bad decision.

 

[McPeachy]

I read somewhere that there is over 750 basketball players in the portal right now. That number will increase as March Madness progresses as well. That is just shocking. I really wonder how many will end up without a home.

 

[doreno5]

Honestly it is too early to tell. One of the things I wonder is what sort of NIL deal are transferring players getting. I am not just referring to the high profile transferees like the twins from Fresno, those numbers are known. I mean what does a second teamer on a power 5 conference get when they transfer to a new school? What I really want to know is whether there is a sort of below the radar marketplace where players have an idea of what they are likely to receive if they enter the portal?

 

[307bball]

Honestly it is too early to tell. One of the things I wonder is what sort of NIL deal are transferring players getting. I am not just referring to the high profile transferees like the twins from Fresno, those numbers are known. I mean what does a second teamer on a power 5 conference get when they transfer to a new school? What I really want to know is whether there is a sort of below the radar marketplace where players have an idea of what they are likely to receive if they enter the portal?

That is a good question. The numbers for the high end types are pretty impressive but most guys won't come close to commanding that.

Maybe focusing on NIL is the wrong way to look at this and the better way is just from a player freedom perspective. What if the only thing that had changed was that the transfer portal was in effect but there was no change on the NIL restrictions? Seems to me that the main thing holding player movement back was always the "sit out a year" penalty. As others have pointed out, most of the transfer guys are moving laterally (or down). To me, that means that there were always discontent players everywhere who just didn't want to sit out who are now entering the portal just to leave a situation that they don't like or to go to a situation that looks better. It was never about "loyalty".

 

[Poke in New England]

Honestly it is too early to tell. One of the things I wonder is what sort of NIL deal are transferring players getting. I am not just referring to the high profile transferees like the twins from Fresno, those numbers are known. I mean what does a second teamer on a power 5 conference get when they transfer to a new school? What I really want to know is whether there is a sort of below the radar marketplace where players have an idea of what they are likely to receive if they enter the portal?

That is a good question. The numbers for the high end types are pretty impressive but most guys won't come close to commanding that.

Maybe focusing on NIL is the wrong way to look at this and the better way is just from a player freedom perspective. What if the only thing that had changed was that the transfer portal was in effect but there was no change on the NIL restrictions? Seems to me that the main thing holding player movement back was always the "sit out a year" penalty. As others have pointed out, most of the transfer guys are moving laterally (or down). To me, that means that there were always discontent players everywhere who just didn't want to sit out who are now entering the portal just to leave a situation that they don't like or to go to a situation that looks better. It was never about "loyalty".

In the long run, the high end types are likely to be the problem for school's like Wyoming anyway. I believe the mass exits are temporary/school-specific phenomenon, which due to the uncertainty about what type of opportunities are available to an average player after transferring (whether the grass will truly be greener) will eventually be limited to cases when a coach leaves or other unique circumstances happen. However, I fail to see a way around the fact Wyoming will ALWAYS have a very hard time keeping the Ike's (or Nance, Adams, Allen etc.) from sticking around. While we may not have to replace entire rosters in one off-season once the transfer piece levels out, I see Wyoming losing its top end talent as a regular thing going forward absent some other changes to the system meant to keep the MW and other small-mid conferences from simply becoming farm league for the P6.

 

[doreno5]

That is a good question. The numbers for the high end types are pretty impressive but most guys won't come close to commanding that.

Maybe focusing on NIL is the wrong way to look at this and the better way is just from a player freedom perspective. What if the only thing that had changed was that the transfer portal was in effect but there was no change on the NIL restrictions? Seems to me that the main thing holding player movement back was always the "sit out a year" penalty. As others have pointed out, most of the transfer guys are moving laterally (or down). To me, that means that there were always discontent players everywhere who just didn't want to sit out who are now entering the portal just to leave a situation that they don't like or to go to a situation that looks better. It was never about "loyalty".

In the long run, the high end types are likely to be the problem for school's like Wyoming anyway. I believe the mass exits are temporary/school-specific phenomenon, which due to the uncertainty about what type of opportunities are available to an average player after transferring (whether the grass will truly be greener) will eventually be limited to cases when a coach leaves or other unique circumstances happen. However, I fail to see a way around the fact Wyoming will ALWAYS have a very hard time keeping the Ike's (or Nance, Adams, Allen etc.) from sticking around. While we may not have to replace entire rosters in one off-season once the transfer piece levels out, I see Wyoming losing its top end talent as a regular thing going forward absent some other changes to the system meant to keep the MW and other small-mid conferences from simply becoming farm league for the P6.

I think Neyor was a prime example of what you are alluding to. I have no idea what Texas finally gave him, but they had to out bid several other big names for him to go there.

 

[307bball]

In the long run, the high end types are likely to be the problem for school's like Wyoming anyway. I believe the mass exits are temporary/school-specific phenomenon, which due to the uncertainty about what type of opportunities are available to an average player after transferring (whether the grass will truly be greener) will eventually be limited to cases when a coach leaves or other unique circumstances happen. However, I fail to see a way around the fact Wyoming will ALWAYS have a very hard time keeping the Ike's (or Nance, Adams, Allen etc.) from sticking around. While we may not have to replace entire rosters in one off-season once the transfer piece levels out, I see Wyoming losing its top end talent as a regular thing going forward absent some other changes to the system meant to keep the MW and other small-mid conferences from simply becoming farm league for the P6.

I think Neyor was a prime example of what you are alluding to. I have no idea what Texas finally gave him, but they had to out bid several other big names for him to go there.

Hmm..interesting.

Well...then for Wyoming the question is this: Let's re-run the last 20 or so years of Wyoming sports but take the top guys and remove the last year they spent here ... how much worse are we?

In Basketball:
'14-'15 Nance
'15-'16 Adams
'18-'19 James
'02-'03 Bailey and Richardson

In football:
'17 Allen
'05 Boughknight

That is just off the top of my head...guys who were very well thought of heading into their final year at Wyoming. It's not like we lit the world on fire with any of them but they were a blast to watch and it gets pretty grim without them.

 

[Poke in New England]

In the long run, the high end types are likely to be the problem for school's like Wyoming anyway. I believe the mass exits are temporary/school-specific phenomenon, which due to the uncertainty about what type of opportunities are available to an average player after transferring (whether the grass will truly be greener) will eventually be limited to cases when a coach leaves or other unique circumstances happen. However, I fail to see a way around the fact Wyoming will ALWAYS have a very hard time keeping the Ike's (or Nance, Adams, Allen etc.) from sticking around. While we may not have to replace entire rosters in one off-season once the transfer piece levels out, I see Wyoming losing its top end talent as a regular thing going forward absent some other changes to the system meant to keep the MW and other small-mid conferences from simply becoming farm league for the P6.

I think Neyor was a prime example of what you are alluding to. I have no idea what Texas finally gave him, but they had to out bid several other big names for him to go there.

Correct. Craig Bohl could have been the nicest dude in coaching and picked up Mike Leach's playbook, and it 99.9% wouldn't have made a difference in keeping him here.

 

[wwplayer]

I think Neyor was a prime example of what you are alluding to. I have no idea what Texas finally gave him, but they had to out bid several other big names for him to go there.

Correct. Craig Bohl could have been the nicest dude in coaching and picked up Mike Leach's playbook, and it 99.9% wouldn't have made a difference in keeping him here.

This is absolutely true, especially for those very top players. Can anybody else see something like this scenario going forward?

Step 1: Top programs (fb or bb, doesn't matter) start very quietly stashing kids they like but not enough to offer them a scholarship at other (not top) programs. Kid that has lots of offers but wants to go to Alabama is told by said Alabama he needs to sign with School X, get some playing time, show what he can do and in a year or two, most likely he can come up to the big time. All of this is done under the table, maybe even without School X knowing they are being gifted (for a while) this top recruit.
Step 2: Once everybody starts doing this, there starts to be a bit more tacit "off the books" collusion with big donors. Ohio State $$ supporter suddenly becomes a "fan of School X" and puts some NIL money behind these kinds of stashed recruits at School X.
Step 3: There starts to be a bit of very informal "understanding" between coaches about certain recruits that Texas A&M wants to hide for a year or two.
Step 4: Georgia starts informally stashing lots of recruits at School X.
Step 5: The comes some sort of formal agreement between Clemson and School X.
Step 6: School X officially becomes Notre Dame's "farm team", a la pro baseball's minor leagues. Of course, now Notre Dame gets most, if not all, the say in who coaches, what system is run, etc.
Step 7: All of this becomes official NCAA policy. The top schools might even save on NIL money, especially if they don't have to really open their wallets so much for incoming freshmen, or bid so much against other schools.

There probably is some of this sort of thing going on as we speak, and most likely has been going on for a while. Thoughts?

 

[laxwyo]

sometimes unions are really good for the employees and sometimes the long term commitments sink the company and they get nothing. if the changes going on today kill college sports for 75% of the schools it will be a disaster for student athletes overall. Only the players with pro type skills will benefit.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

Correct. Craig Bohl could have been the nicest dude in coaching and picked up Mike Leach's playbook, and it 99.9% wouldn't have made a difference in keeping him here.

This is absolutely true, especially for those very top players. Can anybody else see something like this scenario going forward?

Step 1: Top programs (fb or bb, doesn't matter) start very quietly stashing kids they like but not enough to offer them a scholarship at other (not top) programs. Kid that has lots of offers but wants to go to Alabama is told by said Alabama he needs to sign with School X, get some playing time, show what he can do and in a year or two, most likely he can come up to the big time. All of this is done under the table, maybe even without School X knowing they are being gifted (for a while) this top recruit.
Step 2: Once everybody starts doing this, there starts to be a bit more tacit "off the books" collusion with big donors. Ohio State $$ supporter suddenly becomes a "fan of School X" and puts some NIL money behind these kinds of stashed recruits at School X.
Step 3: There starts to be a bit of very informal "understanding" between coaches about certain recruits that Texas A&M wants to hide for a year or two.
Step 4: Georgia starts informally stashing lots of recruits at School X.
Step 5: The comes some sort of formal agreement between Clemson and School X.
Step 6: School X officially becomes Notre Dame's "farm team", a la pro baseball's minor leagues. Of course, now Notre Dame gets most, if not all, the say in who coaches, what system is run, etc.
Step 7: All of this becomes official NCAA policy. The top schools might even save on NIL money, especially if they don't have to really open their wallets so much for incoming freshmen, or bid so much against other schools.

There probably is some of this sort of thing going on as we speak, and most likely has been going on for a while. Thoughts?

If there is collusion like that going on, that could end up in one really big Sherman and Clayton Act Anti-trust lawsuit. Maybe informally there is some discussion. But if someone is dumb enough to put that in writing or more formalize such an arrangement, I'd say antitrust lawyers would be salivating.

 

[Itsux2beaewe]

Correct. Craig Bohl could have been the nicest dude in coaching and picked up Mike Leach's playbook, and it 99.9% wouldn't have made a difference in keeping him here.

This is absolutely true, especially for those very top players. Can anybody else see something like this scenario going forward?

Step 1: Top programs (fb or bb, doesn't matter) start very quietly stashing kids they like but not enough to offer them a scholarship at other (not top) programs. Kid that has lots of offers but wants to go to Alabama is told by said Alabama he needs to sign with School X, get some playing time, show what he can do and in a year or two, most likely he can come up to the big time. All of this is done under the table, maybe even without School X knowing they are being gifted (for a while) this top recruit.
Step 2: Once everybody starts doing this, there starts to be a bit more tacit "off the books" collusion with big donors. Ohio State $$ supporter suddenly becomes a "fan of School X" and puts some NIL money behind these kinds of stashed recruits at School X.
Step 3: There starts to be a bit of very informal "understanding" between coaches about certain recruits that Texas A&M wants to hide for a year or two.
Step 4: Georgia starts informally stashing lots of recruits at School X.
Step 5: The comes some sort of formal agreement between Clemson and School X.
Step 6: School X officially becomes Notre Dame's "farm team", a la pro baseball's minor leagues. Of course, now Notre Dame gets most, if not all, the say in who coaches, what system is run, etc.
Step 7: All of this becomes official NCAA policy. The top schools might even save on NIL money, especially if they don't have to really open their wallets so much for incoming freshmen, or bid so much against other schools.

There probably is some of this sort of thing going on as we speak, and most likely has been going on for a while. Thoughts?

I wondered about this with Ike, was something going on when UW played Indiana in the tourney last year?

 

[OrediggerPoke]

Transfer portal is right because players should have the option to freely move to where they see themselves as a better fit. Employees typically have this right to freely change jobs/place of employment as well.

The issue is NIL. NIL, IMO, is actually going to destroy opportunities for athletes. The top schools will end up collecting all of the top players and ultimately destroying the competitive balance. Once competitive balance is destroyed, interest in many programs are likely to see a hit. This will ultimately impact the financials to these programs and we could see programs drop divisions/cut programs all together and thus, in the end, I see the opportunities for the larger group athletes greatly diminishing absent some change. Certainly there will be the few that make some serious money while in college (good for them but bad for others).

 

[307bball]

Transfer portal is right because players should have the option to freely move to where they see themselves as a better fit. Employees typically have this right to freely change jobs/place of employment as well.

The issue is NIL. NIL, IMO, is actually going to destroy opportunities for athletes. The top schools will end up collecting all of the top players and ultimately destroying the competitive balance. Once competitive balance is destroyed, interest in many programs are likely to see a hit. This will ultimately impact the financials to these programs and we could see programs drop divisions/cut programs all together and thus, in the end, I see the opportunities for the larger group athletes greatly diminishing absent some change. Certainly there will be the few that make some serious money while in college (good for them but bad for others).

You are right...even though I had heard this before it never really clicked...it is entirely possible to separate the transfer portal from NIL $$. Unfortunately, this will be hard to claw back. I think the NCAA missed the boat on a chance to sort of collectivize somehow and allow compensation for athletes that would be flattened somehow. Lot's of legal issues though. Somebody would have inevitably made the claim that it was illegal to restrict an individual from making money on their own NIL....or (as has already happened) somebody would profit off of an NCAA athlete's NIL and get sued.

Looking back...it seems like it was always coming no matter what the NCAA did. The situation wherein athletic departments and conferences are just awash in cash because of the efforts and excellence of a small group of people who largely did not share in that revenue was always a problem. Before the money got crazy huge, amateurism was a coherent argument but that was a long time ago.

 

[laxwyo]

Transfer portal is right because players should have the option to freely move to where they see themselves as a better fit. Employees typically have this right to freely change jobs/place of employment as well.

The issue is NIL. NIL, IMO, is actually going to destroy opportunities for athletes. The top schools will end up collecting all of the top players and ultimately destroying the competitive balance. Once competitive balance is destroyed, interest in many programs are likely to see a hit. This will ultimately impact the financials to these programs and we could see programs drop divisions/cut programs all together and thus, in the end, I see the opportunities for the larger group athletes greatly diminishing absent some change. Certainly there will be the few that make some serious money while in college (good for them but bad for others).

There is not a single sports league in the world that allows free movement of athletes unless they're on a 1 year contract.

The only way to save college sports is to lock athletes into 4 yr contracts. If the big boys like your guy you developed and found in some tiny town and it's the players school of choice, they should offer compensation of some type. Preferably cash. This is a pro league now. It's time to start acting like it. NFL players don't get a ton of say in where they play for when they're drafted and many of them can be traded to whomever without player consent. Players would still get Nil money. At least the schools spending lots of resources on someone get compensated a little. I know theres probably a shit ton of wholes in something like this. Hell, maybe it's easier to set the prices. If Player X transfer to SEC school, Player X's first school gets $20k from the SEC school. No payment if player transfers to "G5" league. This way, they're free to choose schools but school is still compensated some and the SEC school would think a little before signing Player X. None of this will ever happen because the big boys have the best of all worlds right now. Free Agency every year and no salary cap.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

Transfer portal is right because players should have the option to freely move to where they see themselves as a better fit. Employees typically have this right to freely change jobs/place of employment as well.

The issue is NIL. NIL, IMO, is actually going to destroy opportunities for athletes. The top schools will end up collecting all of the top players and ultimately destroying the competitive balance. Once competitive balance is destroyed, interest in many programs are likely to see a hit. This will ultimately impact the financials to these programs and we could see programs drop divisions/cut programs all together and thus, in the end, I see the opportunities for the larger group athletes greatly diminishing absent some change. Certainly there will be the few that make some serious money while in college (good for them but bad for others).

There is not a single sports league in the world that allows free movement of athletes unless they're on a 1 year contract.

The only way to save college sports is to lock athletes into 4 yr contracts. If the big boys like your guy you developed and found in some tiny town and it's the players school of choice, they should offer compensation of some type. Preferably cash. This is a pro league now. It's time to start acting like it. NFL players don't get a ton of say in where they play for when they're drafted and many of them can be traded to whomever without player consent. Players would still get Nil money. At least the schools spending lots of resources on someone get compensated a little. I know theres probably a poop ton of wholes in something like this. Hell, maybe it's easier to set the prices. If Player X transfer to SEC school, Player X's first school gets $20k from the SEC school. No payment if player transfers to "G5" league. This way, they're free to choose schools but school is still compensated some and the SEC school would think a little before signing Player X. None of this will ever happen because the big boys have the best of all worlds right now. Free Agency every year and no salary cap.

Professional sports in the US receive special congressional statutory exemptions under certain labor, employment and anti-trust laws. It is probably going to take a similar Act of Congress to save collegiate sports. I am doubtful that the get nothing done Congress (as currently constructed) will be able to do anything to save collegiate sports.

If a bunch of schools (or through the NCAA) collude to restrict player NIL dollars and/or movement to acquire said dollars, that is a big no-no under the Sherman Anti-Trust Laws. Quite simply, now that courts have recognized the rights of collegiate athletes to profit off their likeness, schools' hands are probably largely tied because of anti-collusion and monopoly laws. Certainly a shift in classifying athletes as employees could help to resolve some problems and athletes' contracts could theoretically contain some enforceable anti-compete clauses in the event of contract breach.

 

[WestWYOPoke]

Transfer portal is right because players should have the option to freely move to where they see themselves as a better fit. Employees typically have this right to freely change jobs/place of employment as well.

The issue is NIL. NIL, IMO, is actually going to destroy opportunities for athletes. The top schools will end up collecting all of the top players and ultimately destroying the competitive balance. Once competitive balance is destroyed, interest in many programs are likely to see a hit. This will ultimately impact the financials to these programs and we could see programs drop divisions/cut programs all together and thus, in the end, I see the opportunities for the larger group athletes greatly diminishing absent some change. Certainly there will be the few that make some serious money while in college (good for them but bad for others).

There is not a single sports league in the world that allows free movement of athletes unless they're on a 1 year contract.

The only way to save college sports is to lock athletes into 4 yr contracts. If the big boys like your guy you developed and found in some tiny town and it's the players school of choice, they should offer compensation of some type. Preferably cash. This is a pro league now. It's time to start acting like it. NFL players don't get a ton of say in where they play for when they're drafted and many of them can be traded to whomever without player consent. Players would still get Nil money. At least the schools spending lots of resources on someone get compensated a little. I know theres probably a poop ton of wholes in something like this. Hell, maybe it's easier to set the prices. If Player X transfer to SEC school, Player X's first school gets $20k from the SEC school. No payment if player transfers to "G5" league. This way, they're free to choose schools but school is still compensated some and the SEC school would think a little before signing Player X. None of this will ever happen because the big boys have the best of all worlds right now. Free Agency every year and no salary cap.

Another difference is that pro athletes have contracts with the team that pays them. NIL money is not thru schools, it is from boosters/NIL collectives. So you couldn't have a contract with the school since the school isn't paying them (outside the scholarship they receive).

Most NILs are signing contracts with the athletes. But, just like a professional contract, you can break your contract if you really want. You just won't get paid.

 

[LanderPoke]

I am fine with NIL, but not fine with the not having-to-sit-out-a-year transfer rule. There has to be some concession to little schools, or, like has been stated above, there will be no parity and the whole enterprise will suffer and crumble.

 

[307bball]

I am fine with NIL, but not fine with the not having-to-sit-out-a-year transfer rule. There has to be some concession to little schools, or, like has been stated above, there will be no parity and the whole enterprise will suffer and crumble.

It is a legal minefield for sure. The having to sit out a year would definitely benefit programs that are not associated with deep pocketed NIL collectives .... still don't think it helps with keeping the top guys since the amount you can get from the NIL stuff is worth multiple years sitting out at the lower levels.

My :twocents: , let guys play....these people are in the prime of their athletic lives. I hate the idea of keeping them off the field or court. Make them NCAA employees....not university employees...flatten the compensation....provide compensation incentive to stay at the program that recruited you.....does that solve anything? I'm sure lot's of holes. thoughts?