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The path to bowl eligbility

J-Rod

J-Rod

Well-known member
There is no doubt, last night was a humbling experience for a program on the upswing. The 34-14 final probably flattered Wyoming a bit. That said, the Pokes sit at 2-3. Homerism aside, a neutral observer would have realistically had them at 2-3 through five games. Truth is, Fresno State is the only complete team close to Boise State that Wyoming will see the rest of the way. Even if Wyoming bombed these next three games, the final four teams in bold below are in bad place right now. The defense hasn't been the death trap we hoped for, but they're still more than good enough to give Wyoming a great chance in those games.

*braces for tomatoes* I thought the play-calling wasn't all that bad last night. There were some big play opportunities missed because Boise's DL kept blowing everything up. Nico looked really good. It was miles from perfect, but I saw some signs of progress on offense.

Reality is, there aren't many (maybe even any) Washington State's, Missouri's, Boise State's left on the schedule. We all knew the schedule was heavy through mid-October. Sure, maybe things fall through...but I still see a path to 6-6, maybe even 7-5 if Wyoming can steal one vs. Hawaii or Utah State.

@Hawaii
@Fresno State
Utah State
@Colorado State
San Jose State
Air Force
@New Mexico
 
I would lose to steal one from Hawaii....mainly so I can drive a bunch of friends of mine insane!!!!!!

So...let keep the Paniolo Trophy in Laramie.
 
I’d be thrilled with 6-6, obviously. And I agree it might just be doable because the MWC, especially the MTN division, is dog poop this year. Fresno is going to rip our nuts off, but we should be in every other game. It would be great to steal one from either Hawaii or Utard state. I’m trying my best to stay positive
 
The last time we had a lot of Freshman and Soph playing as much football that we do, we went 2-10. If we can go 6-6 or 7-5 with a Frosh Qb, several Frosh and Soph OLs. I think we will be okay, and would be able to say that a down year for Wyo is considered .500. A lot better that a down year being sub .500...
 
I agree with the OP. I think its kinda funny that before the season started people here looked at the schedule and thought "Man the beginning of the schedule looks really tough, we could start 2-3 before October." Then when it happens its the end of the world and time to start over.

We knew the schedule was front loaded. And I would have loved to have our offense show up more and steal a couple of these early games to take the next step forward but it didn't happen so we are in the spot many people thought we would be in right now.

I think we get one of our next three games then win our last 4 to go 7-5 or we drop one of the final 4 and go 6-6. We go to our third straight bowl game which is a pretty good achievement for UW historically. I'm ready for the next step but sometimes it takes longer than we want.
 
kansasCowboy said:
The last time we had a lot of Freshman and Soph playing as much football that we do, we went 2-10. If we can go 6-6 or 7-5 with a Frosh Qb, several Frosh and Soph OLs. I think we will be okay, and would be able to say that a down year for Wyo is considered .500. A lot better that a down year being sub .500...
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That's some good, positive thinking. That's actually a good point. Still sucks to not even be competitive with 'good' teams, though.
 
I'm not as confident. Our offense, regardless of excuse, is not fbs-level.
Hawaii will put up points and I don't think we can match them.
USU is a decent team that I think folks are underrating. Like Hawaii, they'll put up points and I think their D is a better than Hawaii's. This game is a blowout risk.
Fresno is a decent FBS-level team and really good MWC team. Another blowout risk.
SJSU is a bit underrated. I think they get us this year.
Seems like AF is usually a tough game but I think we have a decent chance in that one.
CSU and UNM are a mess. We definitely have a chance and might be favored in both.

I think we are looking at 2 or 3 wins at best. The problem is, we get those wins or are competitive because the MWC has a lot of struggling programs.
 
We're one play away from 1-4 and someone is talking bowl eligibility? This is a terrible team right now. Had Boise wanted to, they could have put up at least 50 on us. We are being absolutely manhandled on both lines of scrimmage. I think we are looking at a 4 win season. Then Bohl is going to have to take a hard look at his offensive philosophy and who is capable of implementing it. Big changes are in order.
 
LanderPoke said:
kansasCowboy said:
The last time we had a lot of Freshman and Soph playing as much football that we do, we went 2-10. If we can go 6-6 or 7-5 with a Frosh Qb, several Frosh and Soph OLs. I think we will be okay, and would be able to say that a down year for Wyo is considered .500. A lot better that a down year being sub .500...
Click to expand...

That's some good, positive thinking. That's actually a good point. Still sucks to not even be competitive with 'good' teams, though.
Click to expand...
Remember the year Wyoming hammered CSU in the Border War to close the season? Something like 44-0. I remember the loooong threads about the status of the program. Optimistic fans trying to twist that win into a positive after a 3-9 (is that right?) season, while others were like...are you shitting me? We just went 3-9.

Maybe this team won't be the dominant force some hoped for, but things aren't as bad as they used to be.

I look at players like Allen, Wingard, Granderson, Ghaifan, etc. I know not everyone follows recruiting, but it's a near miracle in today's football to produce that many top players (draftable players) out of 2-star nothing types. Hell, even for Boise State that well ran dry (most of their top guys were respected recruits these days). Josh Allen being amazing and declaring early threw Bohl's timeline off track, but this is still a tremendous program for player development. Stay the course. These are not the dog days of Wyoming football.
 
TSpoke said:
I agree with the OP. I think its kinda funny that before the season started people here looked at the schedule and thought "Man the beginning of the schedule looks really tough, we could start 2-3 before October." Then when it happens its the end of the world and time to start over.

We knew the schedule was front loaded. And I would have loved to have our offense show up more and steal a couple of these early games to take the next step forward but it didn't happen so we are in the spot many people thought we would be in right now.

I think we get one of our next three games then win our last 4 to go 7-5 or we drop one of the final 4 and go 6-6. We go to our third straight bowl game which is a pretty good achievement for UW historically. I'm ready for the next step but sometimes it takes longer than we want.
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I don't have a gripe with our record, I just have an issue with how we've looked so far. We were much less competitive in the 3 losses than I would have thought we would be. And we could have had a cheerleader playing running back and it still shouldn't have taken a last minute drive to beat an FCS team. If we hung close with Mizzou and Wazzu and beaten the snot out of Wofford I'd be more comfortable saying bowl eligibility looks good. But at the moment I only see 2-3 more wins this year.
 
This team looks a lot like Bohls first team in 2014, which was a 4 win team. Why we look like his first team in his 5th year is a whole other matter. Bowl eligibility would take really a monumental turn around. We’re likely going to go to CSU 2-6. Are we really going to play perfect for 4 games after what we’ve seen so far and pull out 4 wins in a row? More likely the team will have lost its mojo by that point.
 
Honestly, a lot of how we look comes down to how our offensive line plays. The success of Evans is despite missed blocks, but it sure isn't helping our inexperienced quarterback, except possibly in terms of developing good habits in getting rid of the ball faster.

You'd think that by now we'd have a great group of offensive linemen, but it honestly looks as if we're seriously lacking in that department. I do know that 3/4 of them are freshmen or sophomores, but at this point, that doesn't seem like a good thing.
 
Asmodeanreborn said:
Honestly, a lot of how we look comes down to how our offensive line plays. The success of Evans is despite missed blocks, but it sure isn't helping our inexperienced quarterback, except possibly in terms of developing good habits in getting rid of the ball faster.

You'd think that by now we'd have a great group of offensive linemen, but it honestly looks as if we're seriously lacking in that department. I do know that 3/4 of them are freshmen or sophomores, but at this point, that doesn't seem like a good thing.
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7 out of 10 on the 2 deep are in their first or second years at Wyoming. I don't know how this happens and recruiting and retention are surely to blame. If this group does stick together then we should be experienced in a couple of years...but cycles of experienced and inexperienced is not what we want to have.
 
J-Rod said:
I look at players like Allen, Wingard, Granderson, Ghaifan, etc. I know not everyone follows recruiting, but it's a near miracle in today's football to produce that many top players (draftable players) out of 2-star nothing types. Hell, even for Boise State that well ran dry (most of their top guys were respected recruits these days). Josh Allen being amazing and declaring early threw Bohl's timeline off track, but this is still a tremendous program for player development. Stay the course. These are not the dog days of Wyoming football.
Click to expand...

It really is incredible for a Wyoming to have 3 guys that have very good draft prospects on the same defense. Bohl and staff took a chance on the guys that could play but didn't have the 'physique' sought by other programs. Absolutely hats off to the staff for recognizing these diamonds in the rough.

However, it is equally as puzzling to me that a team with 3-5 NFL prospects on the defense (I think Logan Wilson and Tyler Hall will also get a look eventually) has performed as a unit relatively mediocre/poorly.
 
OrediggerPoke said:
Asmodeanreborn said:
Honestly, a lot of how we look comes down to how our offensive line plays. The success of Evans is despite missed blocks, but it sure isn't helping our inexperienced quarterback, except possibly in terms of developing good habits in getting rid of the ball faster.

You'd think that by now we'd have a great group of offensive linemen, but it honestly looks as if we're seriously lacking in that department. I do know that 3/4 of them are freshmen or sophomores, but at this point, that doesn't seem like a good thing.
Click to expand...
7 out of 10 on the 2 deep are in their first or second years at Wyoming. I don't know how this happens and recruiting and retention are surely to blame. If this group does stick together then we should be experienced in a couple of years...but cycles of experienced and inexperienced is not what we want to have.
Click to expand...

I think we have had a lack of recruiting and some bad luck with the the Oline in Bohls first couple years. Someone posted a list of our Oline recruits and early there was fewer than was probably need and some bad luck with injuries/retention. We have been recruiting it better/more heavily the last couple years.

We are where we are now with a young line and I think as they grow they will gel and become successful but that remains to be seen I guess.
 
Something to think about as I posted in another thread.

If we did win the last 4 games somehow and finish 6-6 and go to a bowl game then that means Vigen is probably staying here.

Is that really what we want? Don't get me wrong I would rather go to a bowl game than not but I think that will just let Bohl keep Vigen as the OC. Which I don't really want.
 
I did say that Josh was the only reason last year that our offense wasn't dead last last year. He has a way of finding ways to move the ball. The year before, we had an offense nearly full of NFL caliber players that made up for Vigen's more than vanilla playcalling. Last year, Josh had to compensate almost by himself. And we saw what happened when he went down. This year, Nico is a good RB. But with a rookie QB and no real playmakers to catch the ball, Nico is nowhere near enough to make up for the playcalling that even blind people see coming from a mile away.
 
If our down years are 6-6 than I would say that’s pretty good. That being said I see a pretty tough road to 6 wins. Is below 6 wins acceptable? I think it is what it is. We fired our last coach flduring a 5 win season, but that was following a four win year. Bohl made some progress getting to 8 wins back to back.

The major question is why the offense isn’t good and can that be fixed ( 1 good year out of 5). It’s a bit shocking to see great depth with likely an NFL roster player at each level ( more than one at DLine) on one side of the ball, and the offensive side having serious depth issues and attrition. They can find talent ( Hollister, Hill, & Allen) but haven’t replicated that at the skills position this year for whatever reason. I’d of figured that Allen returning in 17 there would have been a glut of JUCO WR’s want to join for a year or two.
 
We shouldn't need any JUCO WRs as we have several receivers who were sought after in recruiting and ranked at 3 stars. Yes, star ratings isn't everything, but it tends to at least give a hint at where they are in terms of skill level and sometimes physical talent in high school.

Now the question is: how have we developed our receivers? How are we using them? Jared Scott was ranked pretty high in the state of Illinois, and he's now 6'6, 225, yet I haven't seen a single jump ball thrown his way!
 
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