As if things haven't been headed this direction anyway for some number of years now, the basically free transfers and NIL money have finally put the final nails in the coffin of what used to be college football (probably basketball, too). Those programs at the top of the food chain, with their huge fan bases/boosters/reputations, etc. will only get "richer" by buying players (either incoming HS players or stars developed in "lesser" programs). It will take a few years for for it to all shake down, but can you see the G5 programs being able to compete at all with this 5 years from now? I would imagine quite a few of the lower lever P5 schools (Wash St, Oregon St., Vanderbilt, etc. etc. etc) will end up in the same boat, becoming totally irrelevant. When all things are said and done, it would seem quite possible that maybe a couple of dozen big time programs, at most. will thrive. I think the answer will ultimately for those schools to go off and create their own mini-NFL, and for all the remaining schools to reconstitute some sort of new NCAA with some sort of (enforceable) rules on transfers/scholarships/NIL, etc. Designed to create some semblance of parity, perhaps? Let the big hogs go their own way (they're going to anyway) and rest try to bring back something workable. :twocents: Discuss, please....
-
Hi Guest, want to participate in the discussions, keep track of read/unread posts and more? Create your free account and increase the benefits of your WyoNation.com experience today!
The future of college football (and probably BB, too)
- Thread starter wwplayer
- Start date
This is going to be the most interesting next 10 years of college football and how all this shakes out. Perhaps somehow it will benefit programs like UW, but I don't see how yet. Ultimately this will not be sustainable long term model for CFB.
I have preached from my soapbox about how the NFL should be forced to create a minor league program similar to MLB and stop relying on colleges to feed them. Bring the "Student" back to the Athlete. I will die on that hill. College baseball players are truly that, they attend school and play a sport they love without getting paid yet. A big reason why College baseball is so exciting to watch and I don't even like Baseball. A player with high potential can sign a major league contract out of high school and work their way through the farm teams to achieve success.
Imagine college football going back to what it was in the 80's & 90's. What a treat that was as a fan. I miss the idea of seeing a player develop over 4/5 years at the same program and knowing all the players names on a team. Now CFB programs will be a hodge podge of Portal players and recruited players constantly moving around. Bohl also cherishes the idea of taking an undervalued kid and developing that over 4 years (Osborne was the same way), however that success will now benefit the P5 program poaching the player. I do believe this system will ultimately collapse upon itself with only 10-20 programs really benefiting. Once it affects the P5 things will change - for better or worse
I have preached from my soapbox about how the NFL should be forced to create a minor league program similar to MLB and stop relying on colleges to feed them. Bring the "Student" back to the Athlete. I will die on that hill. College baseball players are truly that, they attend school and play a sport they love without getting paid yet. A big reason why College baseball is so exciting to watch and I don't even like Baseball. A player with high potential can sign a major league contract out of high school and work their way through the farm teams to achieve success.
Imagine college football going back to what it was in the 80's & 90's. What a treat that was as a fan. I miss the idea of seeing a player develop over 4/5 years at the same program and knowing all the players names on a team. Now CFB programs will be a hodge podge of Portal players and recruited players constantly moving around. Bohl also cherishes the idea of taking an undervalued kid and developing that over 4 years (Osborne was the same way), however that success will now benefit the P5 program poaching the player. I do believe this system will ultimately collapse upon itself with only 10-20 programs really benefiting. Once it affects the P5 things will change - for better or worse
wwplayer said:
No I can't...and from a competitive standpoint...we probably already live in that world and have for some time. This just makes it kind of official.
Obviously, this new system is good for the top college athletes. The NCAA has made $$$ largely on the backs of unpaid athletes and that needs to change....However, those types of players are not common at UW...or even in our conference. The problem is if this trickles down. I would say...with no reservation...that if Josh allen could have transferred and made 6 figures or more before his last year, he would have done it. And he would have been right to do so. If this is true, than any success we have generated by getting that type of player will only decrease in the future. Obviously..JA is a pretty big anomaly from the standpoint of what college athletes could get paid in a NIL environment.
IMO the true nail in the coffin will be when the Brian hill/Tanner Gentry/Carl Granderson type players have to make a decision between staying and transferring when the difference in money is around a median years wage. Not sure how fast we get there but it feels like it will be soon. At that point the competitive imbalance will be truly enourmous between programs that can pay and those that can't.
In the past, I have often made predictions of success or failure where my analysis has missed something so I want to find the thing I'm missing that would make my gloomy prediction wrong. Maybe there is a world were conferences can band together and form NIL collectives on behalf of their players so that at least you don't get in-conference poaching based on NIL $$. I doubt that will happen at the top levels though...that will be for us "lesser" programs.
Free agency in College athletics was never meant to be and in a few years might be the demise at smaller D1 programs. Smaller D1s will need to evolve from this and try to be relevant somehow....this is so why I love March Madness, seeing lower seeds knocking off blue bloods(aka St Peters). This is what the NCAA truly wanted and desires, truthfully
ragtimejoe1
Well-known member
Meh, classic case of old school meets new school. The old school era is officially over. The new school is what it is. You can tolerate it or not but it's not going back.
ragtimejoe1
Well-known member
wwplayer said:
Same way it is now with more roster turnover. It isn't like there is a lot of parity in college football now or recent memory. I'm guessing there might be a shift in the top end because teams like TAMU are insane with insane boosters but the lack of parity will still exist. There are still roster limits. Lower tier teams will lose their best players but should still be able to compete in the lower tiers.
The middling P5 teams probably will see a greater separation between them and the top but will gladly cling to the coattails for tv money and beat other middling teams/G5 teams in over hyped bowl games.
So, again, meh. For us, I don't think it inhibits our chances of finishing 2nd or 3rd in the Mountain Division of the MWC.
OrediggerPoke
Well-known member
I agree with this. The teams that will be greatly impacted in terms of wins/losses are those teams in the bigger conferences that won't have the NIL money to compete with the programs that do. Teams like Iowa State, Washington State, Oregon State, etc...are likely to see more separation with the top of the P5 conferences. There are no MWC teams that are likely to have significant NIL support.ragtimejoe1 said:
OrediggerPoke said:
It would be easy enough to create an LLC for an NIL to pay the players for "appearances or likeness" whatever. Getting around the NIL "rules" is not the hard part, it's simply who wants to pay for that? So here's my plan:
Add a 3% state income Tax, specifically Teton County and wa-lah... we could pay for any player we wanted. Honestly if the state came together on this we could build a powerhouse
ZapPoke
Well-known member
Cornpoke said:
I don’t think a tax specific to one county would stand up in court. However, if you made it statewide on incomes over a certain threshold it would. Drawback then would be that the same people who would be subject to the tax would include many who are already big contributors.
There are already companies that are designated as the “official” this or that of Wyoming Athletics. Just encourage them to use the athletes in their commercials and pay them for NIL. They are already paying to be associated with the teams. Why wouldn’t they want to pony up a little for the athletes?
ragtimejoe1 said:
Ragtime..your take is interesting to me here. What is the difference in going down to FCS and the more obvious widening of the haves and have-nots in the FBS ranks? I have to think that the negative reaction to moving down to FCS has a lot do do with the perception of not "playing with the big boys". I suppose you could argue that we have never been able to play with the big boys...and by results ... that is hard to argue with.
What is the difference in finishing top 2 or 3 in the Mountain Division of the MWC and being competitive in the Big Sky conference at this point...what about 5 years from now? Access to a real playoff seems to be the main one.
To be crystal clear here...I do not want to go down to FCS.
OrediggerPoke
Well-known member
Cornpoke said:
A couple things:
1) We live in Wyoming and it is doubtful that we see any substantial increases in taxes absent actual bankruptcy of the state.
2) I am not advocating for this but I believe that it would be simple to target Teton County in a tax structure. Create a revised property (ad valorem) tax structure for real estate that applies state-wide as it must to pass Constitutional muster. Most 'residents' of Teton County really live elsewhere so an introduction of an income tax will just have them claim somewhere else as their residence and source of income to avoid the income tax. Real estate can't leave its location and real estate in Teton County is magnitudes higher in value than elsewhere in the State. As part of this real estate tax structure, create even larger exemptions for 'agricultural' lands but define those as lands that have actually been farmed/grazed for at least a 10-year preceding period in order to eliminate folks in Teton County suddenly acquiring cattle. Overall effect: (1) small/negligible increases in property taxes in most counties and protection of agricultural industry; and (2) targeted taxation of the folks who 'live' in Teton County merely to avoid California and New York state income taxes.
Intriguing ideas about taxes, but ultimately I believe the big money people will squash any attempt to tax them more. Again, I'm pretty sure 5-10 years down the road, the top couple of dozen (if that) programs will be so far ahead of everyone else that today's "parity" will seem like a happy dream. Is there anyone who sees any positive way forward? That is other than getting a complete beat down from one or more of the big boys each year, a middling conference record, and a trip to the Toilet Bowl. I'd like to see those "big hogs" just go off and form their own mini-NFL. Best the s*#t out of each other, and everyone else form their own new NCAA,. With enforceable rules on transfers, NIL, etc. Those teams ( like TAMU, etc) who prefer to go 3-9 each playing the Bama's, Clemson's, Ohio State's of the world are more than welcome to so. Everybody else go back to playing "college" football. Maybe this is just a pipe dream on my part, but might something like this be possible? The "big hogs" are going to ruin college hoops, too. Just give it a few years.
ragtimejoe1
Well-known member
307bball said:
Separation of haves and have nots came with the P5 and G5 label. It becomes even more galvanized with NIL and transfer portal hierarchy. That said, I'd rather play in the division mmediately below the haves. There is a chance at an Access Bowl, TV money should be a little better, and the teams played is better, imo. Just as the stigma between P5 and G5 label is detrimental so to is the gap between G5 and FCS (albeit less so).
I get the point and the advantage of low level FBS is deteriorating with respect to FCS. However, I think it is still enough of an advantage to increase TV money, help with recruiting, and maintain an overall better image of the athletic department. I do think it's time to consider success in football vs basketball and probably make basketball the highest expenditure program in the MWC.
seattlecowboy
Well-known member
This will only mess with Football.
Won’t affect basketball nearly as much.
Wyoming can still compete against the big boys in basketball.
Football won’t be able to anymore. Like I have said before, why even care about football that much anymore? Yeah it brings in money but you don’t get to compete for much of anything playing in the MWC. You get to go to a crappy bowl game even if you win the conference, that nobody cares about except for the two teams fans playing. Unless of course you bet on the game.
You might get lucky to play in a New Year’s Day game if you can somehow go undefeated. While I love college football, I just don’t care as much about it anymore as far as Wyoming goes. Sure I want Wyoming to win and will root for them but it doesn’t excite me anymore like it used to when Bowl games actually meant something and there wasn’t 30 of them.
In basketball you can make the NCAA tourney and have a chance to play for the whole thing, even if you aren’t likely to win it, it’s that hope each game of what if…. That gets you excited.
Something college football doesn’t do anymore.
With basketball you still can compete for the whole thing and have a lot better chance of beating big school teams nowadays. Plenty of smaller schools than Wyoming have proved that by making the final four an championship games. VCU, George Mason and Butler have all made final fours and Butler made the final two years in a row.
Gonzaga is a perennial power now and is a lot smaller school than Wyoming. If you invest in basketball you can have a chance to be relevant as well. The NIL and Portal will and has destroyed what was left of college football for smaller schools but actually doesn’t hurt basketball nearly as much and may help in some cases.
Wyoming ended up with some pretty good transfers in basketball this year that compliment what they already have.
Won’t affect basketball nearly as much.
Wyoming can still compete against the big boys in basketball.
Football won’t be able to anymore. Like I have said before, why even care about football that much anymore? Yeah it brings in money but you don’t get to compete for much of anything playing in the MWC. You get to go to a crappy bowl game even if you win the conference, that nobody cares about except for the two teams fans playing. Unless of course you bet on the game.
You might get lucky to play in a New Year’s Day game if you can somehow go undefeated. While I love college football, I just don’t care as much about it anymore as far as Wyoming goes. Sure I want Wyoming to win and will root for them but it doesn’t excite me anymore like it used to when Bowl games actually meant something and there wasn’t 30 of them.
In basketball you can make the NCAA tourney and have a chance to play for the whole thing, even if you aren’t likely to win it, it’s that hope each game of what if…. That gets you excited.
Something college football doesn’t do anymore.
With basketball you still can compete for the whole thing and have a lot better chance of beating big school teams nowadays. Plenty of smaller schools than Wyoming have proved that by making the final four an championship games. VCU, George Mason and Butler have all made final fours and Butler made the final two years in a row.
Gonzaga is a perennial power now and is a lot smaller school than Wyoming. If you invest in basketball you can have a chance to be relevant as well. The NIL and Portal will and has destroyed what was left of college football for smaller schools but actually doesn’t hurt basketball nearly as much and may help in some cases.
Wyoming ended up with some pretty good transfers in basketball this year that compliment what they already have.
ragtimejoe1
Well-known member
Dabo is right. A split is coming. It will be contraction at the top. At this point in football, we probably do need to make sure we get in the second level. If we don't (that is possible), I'd drop football. Just me. Others might like playing fcs but I just wouldn't care anymore. If we make the level right below the big dogs, it might be better than now. The P5 castaways could make some fun matchups.
Just a random thought on NIL money and Wyoming football...if I am Corporation AAA, and I'm interested in "paying" a couple of football players $10,000 that play at Wyoming, do I pull the trigger knowing that nobody will know these kids on the field because they DON'T HAVE THEIR NAMES ON THEIR JERSEYS. To the casual fan who watches a commercial for a local car dealer featuring Gunner Gentry, do they know he's number 16 on the football team? Seriously, If I'm going to hang my corporate logo on Gentry's locker, I damn sure want his name on his jersey so people know who he is. Fans on this forum probably know most of the numbers for these kids, but the casual fan has no clue.
Speaking of no clue, I think Bohl's refusal to put names on jerseys just shows how out of touch the old fucker really is. Hey Craig, there's a reason you can't even bat .500, you are stuck in the 60's.
Speaking of no clue, I think Bohl's refusal to put names on jerseys just shows how out of touch the old fucker really is. Hey Craig, there's a reason you can't even bat .500, you are stuck in the 60's.
