The FBS Split is Near

[TheCup]

This has nothing to do with the schools themselves and everything to do with market size. Sad reality.

I think that's only partially true. What the P5 really are trying to do is change the governance structure of the NCAA (and it looks like they've succeeded in doing it) so that they can vote to allow schools to pay players a cash stipend, increase insurance for potential pros, pay parents for some travel and basically spend more on scholarships, academic support and all of that. They're doing that because they are scared to death of the Northwestern labor decision, and also because they have the horsepower to compete in an arms race.

To put it in perspective, Alabama generates about 50% more annual profit from athletics than UW's total annual athletics budget. The Alabama's of the world want to know, justifiably, why they should be limited under the same rules as a school like Wyoming when the whole "student-athlete" thing is really just a fiction.

My guess is that schools like CSU (if Moonlight sticks around and gets his stadium built), SDSU and Boise may eventually make the decision to join the arms race. Wyoming will never have the budget to do the same. Burman can barely get his budget funded now, so there's no way he's going to find another 4 or 5 million to give to players.

So 5 years down the road Wyoming will still be in the same conference with Boise, SDSU and CSU. The Big XII ain't knocking on any of their doors. But if, as expected, the NCAA says a school can pay players - but they don't have to - what we will have is First Class and a Ghetto in college football.

When that happens, Coach Bohl and Coach McElwain will still be competing for the same recruits. But Coach McElwain will be able to offer a recruit an extra $1000/month or whatever, under the rules, in walking around money. Coach Bohl won't be able to match it. How do you think that will turn out for Wyoming?

People don't want to hear it, but the next 5 years are a really dangerous time for Wyoming football.

 

[J-Rod]

I think that's only partially true. What the P5 really are trying to do is change the governance structure of the NCAA (and it looks like they've succeeded in doing it) so that they can vote to allow schools to pay players a cash stipend, increase insurance for potential pros, pay parents for some travel and basically spend more on scholarships, academic support and all of that. They're doing that because they are scared to death of the Northwestern labor decision, and also because they have the horsepower to compete in an arms race.

To put it in perspective, Alabama generates about 50% more annual profit from athletics than UW's total annual athletics budget. The Alabama's of the world want to know, justifiably, why they should be limited under the same rules as a school like Wyoming when the whole "student-athlete" thing is really just a fiction.

My guess is that schools like CSU (if Moonlight sticks around and gets his stadium built), SDSU and Boise may eventually make the decision to join the arms race. Wyoming will never have the budget to do the same. Burman can barely get his budget funded now, so there's no way he's going to find another 4 or 5 million to give to players.

So 5 years down the road Wyoming will still be in the same conference with Boise, SDSU and CSU. The Big XII ain't knocking on any of their doors. But if, as expected, the NCAA says a school can pay players - but they don't have to - what we will have is First Class and a Ghetto in college football.

When that happens, Coach Bohl and Coach McElwain will still be competing for the same recruits. But Coach McElwain will be able to offer a recruit an extra $1000/month or whatever, under the rules, in walking around money. Coach Bohl won't be able to match it. How do you think that will turn out for Wyoming?

People don't want to hear it, but the next 5 years are a really dangerous time for Wyoming football.

Good post. All too true.....scary times are ahead. If Wyoming cannot fulfill the stipend requirement, among others....Bohl can do whatever he wants, Wyoming is finished. At this level anyway.....

 

[TheCup]

Good post. All too true.....scary times are ahead. If Wyoming cannot fulfill the stipend requirement, among others....Bohl can do whatever he wants, Wyoming is finished. At this level anyway.....

Thanks. That's the scariest thing... it will be a quiet strangulation very few will see happening. We'll still be in the same conference. We'll still have the same tv deal. And we'll still get the occasional money road game against Oregon or Michigan State.

But we'll go 3-9 every year, and no one will understand why we can't seem to recruit anymore.

 

[J-Rod]

Thanks. That's the scariest thing... it will be a quiet strangulation very few will see happening. We'll still be in the same conference. We'll still have the same tv deal. And we'll still get the occasional money road game against Oregon or Michigan State.

But we'll go 3-9 every year, and no one will understand why we can't seem to recruit anymore.

Yep..there is already a sizable gap in facilities, resources, location, etc. compared to the top brass of the MW that hurts Wyoming....add this, and it will become brutally difficult to remain competitive. A silent killer for sure.

But this will happen at lots of places. Knowing Hawaii's local government the way I do, I think dropping the program is a possibility if all this becomes reality. Some programs will tap out.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Good post. All too true.....scary times are ahead. If Wyoming cannot fulfill the stipend requirement, among others....Bohl can do whatever he wants, Wyoming is finished. At this level anyway.....

Thanks. That's the scariest thing... it will be a quiet strangulation very few will see happening. We'll still be in the same conference. We'll still have the same tv deal. And we'll still get the occasional money road game against Oregon or Michigan State.

But we'll go 3-9 every year, and no one will understand why we can't seem to recruit anymore.

My fears as well. Reality is that if we are in a conference where others can pay players and we can't, the FCS talks will start to ring a little louder.

The competitive disadvantage would kill our program anyway.

 

[TheCup]

The competitive disadvantage would kill our program anyway.

Yep. An 8-4 or 7-5 record is the best we could possibly hope for, with maybe a trip to the Idaho or New Mexico Bowls. Conference titles will be out of the question. The choice we will face is will that be good enough for the casual fan to stay engaged? Will that be enough for the university to continue its current level of investment?

You can have the best coaches and the best scheme, but if three schools can pay players and the rest can't it's not hard to predict what will happen.

 

[SnowyRange]

This has been building for 30 years. It seems inevitable.

Wyoming is no worse off than the vast majority of the non-top 5 conference schools, all of whom can't afford to run as a sideline a paid semi-pro sports team. I suppose our only special disadvantage is our ridiculously minuscule TV market, but all it means in the final analysis is that we'll drift into a conference with teams in the same boat (which, by the way, includes most of the MWC teams).

 

[BJC]

The competitive disadvantage would kill our program anyway.

Yep. An 8-4 or 7-5 record is the best we could possibly hope for, with maybe a trip to the Idaho or New Mexico Bowls. Conference titles will be out of the question. The choice we will face is will that be good enough for the casual fan to stay engaged? Will that be enough for the university to continue its current level of investment?

You can have the best coaches and the best scheme, but if three schools can pay players and the rest can't it's not hard to predict what will happen.

Hell we haven't seen consistent 8-4 or 7-5 record since what.....late 90's

 

[LawPoke]

I wonder if CSU will struggle to service the debt on their stadium like Cal. Despite huge infusions of Pac12 tv money, Cal is in a world of hurt.

Keeping up with the Joneses only works if you have the paycheck to do so.

I would guess that CSU ultimately gets its stadium and that it is not near the palace that the sheep faithful are touting. This said, we have to continue to make strides on facilities (apparently the AA redo is playing very well with recruits) and on sustainable funding for athletics if we are going to have a snowball's chance of staying FBS, whatever that is anymore.

 

[SnowyRange]

Hell we haven't seen consistent 8-4 or 7-5 record since what.....late 90's

Yes, for like 4 years.

We're a handful of games over .500 over the last 50 years.

 

[Hayduke]

Now, what will be interesting is the way that the "Big 5" grab up the bowl games for themselves... What will be left for the rest of the FBS?

Detroit...Albuquerque...Buffalo....etc... ??

 

[Hayduke]

This has nothing to do with the schools themselves and everything to do with market size. Sad reality.

I think that's only partially true. What the P5 really are trying to do is change the governance structure of the NCAA (and it looks like they've succeeded in doing it) so that they can vote to allow schools to pay players a cash stipend, increase insurance for potential pros, pay parents for some travel and basically spend more on scholarships, academic support and all of that. They're doing that because they are scared to death of the Northwestern labor decision, and also because they have the horsepower to compete in an arms race.

To put it in perspective, Alabama generates about 50% more annual profit from athletics than UW's total annual athletics budget. The Alabama's of the world want to know, justifiably, why they should be limited under the same rules as a school like Wyoming when the whole "student-athlete" thing is really just a fiction.

My guess is that schools like CSU (if Moonlight sticks around and gets his stadium built), SDSU and Boise may eventually make the decision to join the arms race. Wyoming will never have the budget to do the same. Burman can barely get his budget funded now, so there's no way he's going to find another 4 or 5 million to give to players.

So 5 years down the road Wyoming will still be in the same conference with Boise, SDSU and CSU. The Big XII ain't knocking on any of their doors. But if, as expected, the NCAA says a school can pay players - but they don't have to - what we will have is First Class and a Ghetto in college football.

When that happens, Coach Bohl and Coach McElwain will still be competing for the same recruits. But Coach McElwain will be able to offer a recruit an extra $1000/month or whatever, under the rules, in walking around money. Coach Bohl won't be able to match it. How do you think that will turn out for Wyoming?

People don't want to hear it, but the next 5 years are a really dangerous time for Wyoming football.

I agree.

CSU is expanding enrollment...they want 35,000 in the next ten years. They want to be a "Big Time" University. That means "Big Time" athletics.

After the new stadium, the next thing we will see is a new basketball arena. They want to join a conference like the Big XII. They gotta make moves fast to pull it off...

I fear that UW will be left in the dust with this race to expand the athletic departments. I hope we are wrong!

 

[WyoBrandX]

I personally think that there is a huge bubble that has formed in college athletics and it will explode soon. The economy is about back to where it was in 2007. There is a bigger gap between the wealthy and the poor. This is going to blow up big time.

I also think that the only reason cable tv still exists today is due to the baby boomers retiring and not knowing technology, and live sports/news broadcasts. With more and more sports being streamed via technology, its tough to see where the cash flow is going to come from to pay players and their families to come to games.

One way or another, we have interesting times ahead.

 

[BeaverPoke]

I personally think that there is a huge bubble that has formed in college athletics and it will explode soon. The economy is about back to where it was in 2007. There is a bigger gap between the wealthy and the poor. This is going to blow up big time.

I also think that the only reason cable tv still exists today is due to the baby boomers retiring and not knowing technology, and live sports/news broadcasts. With more and more sports being streamed via technology, its tough to see where the cash flow is going to come from to pay players and their families to come to games.

One way or another, we have interesting times ahead.

I think one thing we should keep in mind is the fact that this change isn't a new thing.
Change has always been happening since college football started (and forever before that too).

It's not like all of a sudden there is a new change in college football.
Didn't Yale used to win National Titles? Wyo was a legit power in the 60's. Penn State was up there for a while. The U (Miami) used to dominate as well. It seems like there are very few teams that have always dominated, maybe Alabama and Texas?

I think that some of the modern change can go back to ASU and Arizona leaving the WAC to join the Pac8.
Then the MWC teams leaving the WAC.
And so on.

But yes, interesting times are ahead. All I can say is that I am glad I have a team to cheer for in one of the "big" conferences.

That doesn't mean I'm not glad to be a Wyo fan, just that I don't see great days ahead for MWC teams.

 

[lakesbison]

NDSU wants this split bad as well as the top 10 fcs teams because they should be FBS but aren't getting invites

If NCAA is smart. They do the P5 with the bcs. Then combine the rest and the best of fcs into the current fcs playoff system.

Cusa vs mac vs mwc teams battling in a playoff would be much better than the popfart bowl

 

[Wicks]

Great thread and discussion guys!

Yes, this is the begining of the end of modern college football as we know it. Before too long each of the "P5" will have 14 or 16 schools so expansion is on the horizon but as stated here Wyoming has a 0% chance to be included in these plans. Boise, SDSU and Fresno are the only current MWC schools who I could see making the jump. If CSU is able to sneak into the Big 12 with facility improvements it would be a major blow to our program.

I agree that the best we can hope for is the non-power conferences start their own playoff or join the current FCS playoff set-up.

 

[Hayduke]

I actually agree with Lakes. This hurts lower echelon FBS programs like Wyoming, and will help upper echelon FCS programs. In the meantime, the rich get richer. Either way, they'll have to restructure the whole notion of "D-I" again... As if it isn't confusing enough already.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

No matter how remote the chance was, if your enjoyment of POKE football was the opportunity to play with the big dogs, your enjoyment is going to take a hit.

It can still be fun and I will still support the POKES. For me as a fan, however, a lot will be lost when it happens.

It sucks but it is what it is.

 

[TheCup]

Great thread and discussion guys!

Yes, this is the begining of the end of modern college football as we know it. Before too long each of the "P5" will have 14 or 16 schools so expansion is on the horizon but as stated here Wyoming has a 0% chance to be included in these plans. Boise, SDSU and Fresno are the only current MWC schools who I could see making the jump. If CSU is able to sneak into the Big 12 with facility improvements it would be a major blow to our program.

I agree that the best we can hope for is the non-power conferences start their own playoff or join the current FCS playoff set-up.

I don't think any of the P5 are looking to add any more schools - short of Notre Dame. None of those conferences want to cut the pie into more pieces. If there is realignment it will be current P5 schools moving to other P5 leagues.

Schools like Boise State, CSU and maybe SDSU will probably sell out to compete, but I don't think they'll have any choice other than to stay in the MW. They'll just be able to offer recruits cash money, and the rest of us won't. Wyoming will still be FBS or whatever it may be called and probably always will be. We'll just suck. Which, when you get down to it, is really no different than today. It'll just be even more permanent.

If we were smart, which we are not, when these rules change to allow payments to players we will take our eggs almost completely out of the football basket and go all in on basketball. The cost to compete in basketball is much, much lower. It's the difference between 13 scholarship athletes and 85. And in basketball it doesn't matter what league you're in. If you win your last 9 or 10 games you are the national champion. Period.

 

[JimmyDimes]

I see no reason for the P5 schools to expand nor do I see any college athlete getting paid in the future. It may happen, I just don't think it will.