Statistical Analysis of Team So Far

[ItSucksToBeACSURam]

In an attempt to not completely derail the Tweets thread, I will repost this here....

So.... I have really been wracking my brain trying to figure out an actual reason why Edwards refuses to play his best players most. I am in no way a statistician but can run a spreadsheet with the best of them. I want to understand why JJ and Dalton don't play the minutes we the fans believe they should. I figured there was something in the stats that were missing. Here is a breakdown of what I found.

Through January 13th (17 Games)

Minutes Per Game:
1. JMac 33.6
2. Herndon 30.6
3. Dalton 26.3 (Surprised he was this high)
4. Aka Gorski 25.7
5. James 24.5

Points Per Game:
1. James 15.6 (Duh) (0.64 per minute played)
2. JMac 13.4 (this too surprised me with his recent struggles) (0.40)
3. Dalton 13.2 (would have figured this would have been higher) (0.50)
4. Herndon 10.4 (0.34)
5. Aka Gorski 9.4 (0.37)

Rebounds Per Game:
1. Dalton 8.7 (Monster) (0.33 per minute played)
2. Herndon 6.1 (0.20)
3. James 4.8 (0.20)
4. Naughton 3.7 (0.28)
5. JMac 3.6 (0.11)

Assist Per Game:
1. Dalton 3.2 (0.12 per minute played)
2. Jmac 2.6 (0.08)
3. Aka Gorski 2.2 (0.09)
4. Lieberman 2.1 (0.11)
5. James 1.7 (0.07)

Steals Per Game:
1. James 0.9 (0.04 per minute played)
2. Lieberman 0.8 (0.04)
3. Dalton 0.7 (0.03)
4. JMac 0.6 (0.02)
5. Herndon 0.6 (0.02)

Blocks Per Game:
1. Herndon 2.1 (0.07 per minute played)
2. Dalton 0.9 (0.03)
3. James 0.6 (0.02)
4. Moemeka 0.5 (0.08)
5. Naughton 0.4 (0.03)

Turnovers Per Game:
1. Dalton 2.5 (0.1 Per minute played)
2. James 2.1 (0.09)
3. Adams 1.8 (0.13)
4. Herndon 1.8 (0.06)
5. Lieberman 1.6 (0.08)

I compiled stats for every roster player and these were the top 5 in each.

I under stand that TOs are not great and that they have a negative effect on the game. I took that into account. I took each of the Per Minute stats per each player and came up with a number that I am calling Positive Plays Per Minute. Kind of like WHIP in baseball, this is telling me, PER MINUTE, what kind of impact each player is making. Ultimately, the higher the number the better. Here it is:

Positive Plays Per Minute Played (PPPMP):
1. Dalton 0.92
2. James 0.88
3. Naughton 0.69
4. Adams 0.65
5. Moemeka 0.63
6. Herndon 0.60
7. Marshall 0.57
8. JMac 0.56
9. Kelley 0.55
10. Aka Gorski 0.52
11. Barnes 0.51
12. Averbuck 0.36
13. Lieberman 0.34

SO what does all of this mean? This has to be taken at face value but it fairly obvious that James and Dalton are TOO important to not be receiving the most minutes. It is also interesting that Moemeka and Naughton are making a lot of noise with their reduced minutes. Poor Lieberman seems to play a lot of empty (or worse yet, negative) minutes.

AGAIN: I am not statistician, I am just a Pokes fan with Excel and ESPN. Take this as you will, but I think its rather interesting that the stats show definitively that the two favorites on this board actually are the our best statistical players and have the biggest impact on the game when they are subbed in. I will do what I can to update the PPPMP as the season pushes on. Let the conversations begin.

 

[Cowboy Junky]

Look at your own stats and then compare that to the last five years under Shy.

There's a reason they don't start. They turn the ball over the most.

Actually, I think we're doing it on purpose for a combination of factors: turnovers, keep the young guys hungry, and so we can have a statistical advantage over teams for periods of the game. Our bench almost always outscores the other teams bench.

Who cares about the minutes?

Trust the coaches.

 

[LanderPoke]

Look at your own stats and then compare that to the last five years under Shy.

There's a reason they don't start. They turn the ball over the most.

Actually, I think we're doing it on purpose for a combination of factors: turnovers, keep the young guys hungry, and so we can have a statistical advantage over teams for periods of the game. Our bench almost always outscores the other teams bench.

Who cares about the minutes?

Trust the coaches.

Who cares about the minutes? Are you joking? If Dalton, James, Adams and Naughton played more minutes and lesser players played fewer then we'd be a more formidable team! I'm not ready to call Edwards a great coach (Edwards is a great coach with this one exception) until he can master the #1 most basic and essential thing about coaching - playing the right players the right amount of minutes.

 

[ItSucksToBeACSURam]

Look at your own stats and then compare that to the last five years under Shy.

There's a reason they don't start. They turn the ball over the most.

Actually, I think we're doing it on purpose for a combination of factors: turnovers, keep the young guys hungry, and so we can have a statistical advantage over teams for periods of the game. Our bench almost always outscores the other teams bench.

Who cares about the minutes?

Trust the coaches.

I hear you, but even with the turnovers they still have the biggest impact on the game. By a considerable margin.

Until Edwards gives us more than BS coach speak, I won't trust him on this. IF all he is willing to give us is that he likes the flow of the game with these two sitting 10-15 minute on the bench than I will forever disagree. Lieberman has the lowest PPPMP on the team and has averaged more time than JJ in conference. Does that make sense to you?

And I get tired hearing "Oh our bench outscores most other benches in the country". Yeah as our starters get demolished. Who cares what our bench does versus starters. I want to WIN more games than most other teams in the country. We average 78.6 Points Per Game as a team. Its not like if JJ and Dalton start that number suddenly plummets, their points just flip the other side of the score book. Realistically we could end up scoring MORE if they start or see more minutes.

Who cares about minutes? I do. Especially when the stats dictate there is a group of players that greatly impact the game and make the most of those minutes and a group of players who don't.

 

[Cowboy Junky]

Until Justin James stops throwing the ball out of bounds to lose us road games, I don't want him to start.

In fact, if he keeps throwing the ball out of bounds to lose us games, I don't want him in down the stretch either.

He needs to learn to protect the rock. Then he can start.

Dalton is an energy player. Energy players are more effective off the bench. You bring them in when you're team is lacking life or hustle to give the team a spark. He does it incredibly well. He's very good at coming in off the bench and getting the team going on a run. You don't do that by accident. That's a skill to be able to come in off the bench and spark runs.

It's not like our starters are digging a big hole for James and Dalton to dig out of. They're playing the game effectively too.

I could see starting Dalton, because I like the turnovers he gets: mostly aggressive in nature and not a bunch of lazy, stupid, passes.

James, until he figures out how to protect the ball in the backcourt, needs to be coming off the bench.

I like it. I think Edwards is motivating both Dalton and James to be the best versions of themselves.

 

[LanderPoke]

Until Justin James stops throwing the ball out of bounds to lose us road games, I don't want him to start.

In fact, if he keeps throwing the ball out of bounds to lose us games, I don't want him in down the stretch either.

He needs to learn to protect the rock. Then he can start.

Dalton is an energy player. Energy players are more effective off the bench. You bring them in when you're team is lacking life or hustle to give the team a spark. He does it incredibly well. He's very good at coming in off the bench and getting the team going on a run. You don't do that by accident. That's a skill to be able to come in off the bench and spark runs.

It's not like our starters are digging a big hole for James and Dalton to dig out of. They're playing the game effectively too.

I could see starting Dalton, because I like the turnovers he gets: mostly aggressive in nature and not a bunch of lazy, stupid, passes.

James, until he figures out how to protect the ball in the backcourt, needs to be coming off the bench.

I like it. I think Edwards is motivating both Dalton and James to be the best versions of themselves.

:rofl: What about Lieberman? He turns it over just as much and brings literally nothing. Think if James were playing 33 min/game and Lieberman was at 12 min/game? Theoretically we'd get the same amount of turnovers, but we'd get more points, rebounds, steals, and blocks.

 

[ItSucksToBeACSURam]

Until Justin James stops throwing the ball out of bounds to lose us road games, I don't want him to start.

In fact, if he keeps throwing the ball out of bounds to lose us games, I don't want him in down the stretch either.

He needs to learn to protect the rock. Then he can start.

Dalton is an energy player. Energy players are more effective off the bench. You bring them in when you're team is lacking life or hustle to give the team a spark. He does it incredibly well. He's very good at coming in off the bench and getting the team going on a run. You don't do that by accident. That's a skill to be able to come in off the bench and spark runs.

It's not like our starters are digging a big hole for James and Dalton to dig out of. They're playing the game effectively too.

I could see starting Dalton, because I like the turnovers he gets: mostly aggressive in nature and not a bunch of lazy, stupid, passes.

James, until he figures out how to protect the ball in the backcourt, needs to be coming off the bench.

I like it. I think Edwards is motivating both Dalton and James to be the best versions of themselves.

You and Edwards both apparently put more stock and more weight on one stat than any other. Yes JJ has a lot of turnovers. Dalton too. But that is the one blemish on their games. The way they impact every other facet it unrivaled on this team. They are statistically the best players on our team even with the turnovers. Fine don't start them but they both should be averaging 30+ minutes a game.

 

[DVDA]

Have either started a single game this year?

 

[WYCowboy]

Maybe it has to do with stamina or tired legs down the stretch of the season. No one has even mentioned that. I think Edwards knows what he is doing.

 

[seattlecowboy]

I think Dalton should be starting but I don't agree that James should yet.

To me Dalton is the best all around player on the team and James is a player with the most "potential".

The problem with James as has been stated is he turns the ball over to much and makes mental mistakes. It isn't just that he turns the ball over that is the problem. It is that he does it at the worst possible times, like in crunch time and they are turnovers that don't have to happen. Until he can get to where he plays smarter I think he gets enough minutes.

The guy I think that has been playing better that should keep getting minutes is Kelley. I would play him over Lieberman all the time.

Maybe James will pull his head out and start being smarter and playing to his potential so I can agree he should get more minutes.

To me at this point the only person on the team who i can say for sure should get more minutes is Dalton. At least when he turns it over it is not in crunch time and usually he is hustling.

 

[Adv8RU12]

I took each of the Per Minute stats per each player and came up with a number that I am calling Positive Plays Per Minute.

These stats are very nice and very revealing. But how you constructed the PPPM would be interesting. For example I would assign, as you probably did, a negative weight to TO's. But also a higher weight to points than rebounds. And more value to assists than steals. What these assigned weights would be , I am sure, be different for each Forum member. I will think about this and post my weights at a later time.

 

[LanderPoke]

I think Dalton should be starting but I don't agree that James should yet.

To me Dalton is the best all around player on the team and James is a player with the most "potential".

The problem with James as has been stated is he turns the ball over to much and makes mental mistakes. It isn't just that he turns the ball over that is the problem. It is that he does it at the worst possible times, like in crunch time and they are turnovers that don't have to happen. Until he can get to where he plays smarter I think he gets enough minutes.

They guy I think that has been playing better that should keep getting minutes is Kelley. I would play him over Lieberman all the time.

Maybe James will pull his head out and start being smarter and playing to his potential so I can agree he should get more minutes.

To me at this point the only person on the team who i can say for sure should get more minutes is Dalton. Atleast when he turns it over it is not in crunch time and usually he is hustling.

So, just to be clear, you don't think that James, who is leading in points and steals, and is at a minimum in the top 5 in every possible positive statistical category should be getting more minutes?

He's barely playing over half the game. What more could James possibly do to merit more minutes?

And James is going to have turnovers, especially when the ball is in his hands as much as it is and he's being the main creator with Dalton. To me it's not shocking that Dalton and James lead in TOs. They're the only ones that can create for themselves and others. It comes with the territory.

 

[seattlecowboy]

I think Dalton should be starting but I don't agree that James should yet.

To me Dalton is the best all around player on the team and James is a player with the most "potential".

The problem with James as has been stated is he turns the ball over to much and makes mental mistakes. It isn't just that he turns the ball over that is the problem. It is that he does it at the worst possible times, like in crunch time and they are turnovers that don't have to happen. Until he can get to where he plays smarter I think he gets enough minutes.

They guy I think that has been playing better that should keep getting minutes is Kelley. I would play him over Lieberman all the time.

Maybe James will pull his head out and start being smarter and playing to his potential so I can agree he should get more minutes.

To me at this point the only person on the team who i can say for sure should get more minutes is Dalton. Atleast when he turns it over it is not in crunch time and usually he is hustling.

So, just to be clear, you don't think that James, who is leading in points and steals, and is at a minimum in the top 5 in every possible positive statistical category should be getting more minutes?

He's barely playing over half the game. What more could James possibly do to merit more minutes?

And James is going to have turnovers, especially when the ball is in his hands as much as it is and he's being the main creator with Dalton. To me it's not shocking that Dalton and James lead in TOs. They're the only ones that can create for themselves and others. It comes with the territory.

To get more minutes he can stop turning the ball over in crunch time when he needs to be smart. He has basically been a big reason we have lost a couple of games because he makes stupid plays at the end of games when he doesn't need to. And him creating is part of his problem because all he is doing is creating turnovers because he isn't smart about it. The turnovers Dalton gets are different then the ones James gets. James gets turnovers from lazy passes and from jumping in mid air underneath the rim and throwing it away.

Dalton usually gets turnovers from hustling.

Maybe James should start and play during the middle of the game then pull him out the last 5 minutes so he can't be stupid with the ball. Not sure what the answer is.

 

[ItSucksToBeACSURam]

I took each of the Per Minute stats per each player and came up with a number that I am calling Positive Plays Per Minute.

These stats are very nice and very revealing. But how you constructed the PPPM would be interesting. For example I would assign, as you probably did, a negative weight to TO's. But also a higher weight to points than rebounds. And more value to assists than steals. What these assigned weights would be , I am sure, be different for each Forum member. I will think about this and post my weights at a later time.

You're correct. I didn't know how/what to assign for weights so for the time being they're 1 to 1 with Turnovers being negative. You can introduce a bunch of ambiguity and really skew results with arbitrary weighting but I would be interested in your thoughts going forward.

 

[Cowboy Junky]

I think Dalton should be starting but I don't agree that James should yet.

To me Dalton is the best all around player on the team and James is a player with the most "potential".

The problem with James as has been stated is he turns the ball over to much and makes mental mistakes. It isn't just that he turns the ball over that is the problem. It is that he does it at the worst possible times, like in crunch time and they are turnovers that don't have to happen. Until he can get to where he plays smarter I think he gets enough minutes.

They guy I think that has been playing better that should keep getting minutes is Kelley. I would play him over Lieberman all the time.

Maybe James will pull his head out and start being smarter and playing to his potential so I can agree he should get more minutes.

To me at this point the only person on the team who i can say for sure should get more minutes is Dalton. Atleast when he turns it over it is not in crunch time and usually he is hustling.

So, just to be clear, you don't think that James, who is leading in points and steals, and is at a minimum in the top 5 in every possible positive statistical category should be getting more minutes?

He's barely playing over half the game. What more could James possibly do to merit more minutes?

And James is going to have turnovers, especially when the ball is in his hands as much as it is and he's being the main creator with Dalton. To me it's not shocking that Dalton and James lead in TOs. They're the only ones that can create for themselves and others. It comes with the territory.

To get more minutes he can stop turning the ball over in crunch time when he needs to be smart. He has basically been a big reason we have lost a couple of games because he makes stupid plays at the end of games when he doesn't need to. And him creating is part of his problem because all he is doing is creating turnovers because he isn't smart about it. The turnovers Dalton gets are different then the ones James gets. James gets turnovers from lazy passes and from jumping in mid air underneath the rim and throwing it away.

Dalton usually gets turnovers from hustling.

Maybe James should start and play during the middle of the game then pull him out the last 5 minutes so he can't be stupid with the ball. Not sure what the answer is.

Totally Agreed.

They make different kinds of turnovers. If James turned the ball over being aggressive going to the rim, we would all accept that.

What we can't except are the lazy mental turnovers in the back court, the ones he makes when he's not squaring his shoulders to pass the ball, or the ones he makes when he's panicked near the end of a game.

James needs to use his turnovers while going to the rim, not bringing the ball up.

 

[DVDA]

I think you should have looked deeper into the turnovers per minute stat since it's so easy to say .08 and .07 are similar and small. The difference between .074 and .075 could be shown in those two numbers. More decimal places could help, but I like the idea of flipping it and saying how many minutes played per turnover since it's a larger number and easier to relate to. For every X minutes a player is on the court, they average a turnover. Here are the numbers for that.

Minutes played per turnover
7.70 Adams
10.64 Dalton
11.53 James
12.17 Kelley
12.36 Lieberman
17.37 Herndon
21.96 McManamen
22.30 Naughton
22.71 Aka Gorski

Marshall has 1 turnover in 44 minutes, Barnes has 1 in 39 minutes, Moemeka has 7 in 69 minutes and Averbuck has 0 in 28 minutes. They clearly don't have enough minutes for the data to be useful.

James and Dalton are the go to guys for this squad which makes it pretty reasonable that they average more turnovers than the rest of the team. Kelley and Lieberman are barely ahead of James in this category which negates the "point guards take care of the ball" argument. I'm fine with Kelley having a number like this as he's a redshirt freshman who has improved as the season has progressed. Lieberman should have the maturity to have numbers like Aka Gorski and Naughton, especially as a point guard. James, Kelley, and Lieberman all need to do a better job of taking care of the ball for this team to have a chance in the conference tournament.

Looking through the stats, Adams had 15 of his 23 turnovers in a 3 game stretch(Cornell, Troy, Depaul). He also only has 177 minutes on the season which is quite a bit fewer than most other players. Combined, these are the major reasons behind him having such a low number. Not to excuse Adams, this argument can be made for others such as Lieberman who has 15 of 25 total turnovers in 4 games.

On the other side, Aka Gorski is really smart with the ball and doesn't force much. Naughton's numbers are impressive for a big man who actually gets the ball in the post on occasion. McManamen's and Herndon's numbers reflect their maturity and role player approach to the game.

 

[ItSucksToBeACSURam]

I think you should have looked deeper into the turnovers per minute stat since it's so easy to say .08 and .07 are similar and small. The difference between .074 and .075 could be shown in those two numbers. More decimal places could help, but I like the idea of flipping it and saying how many minutes played per turnover since it's a larger number and easier to relate to. For every X minutes a player is on the court, they average a turnover. Here are the numbers for that.

Minutes played per turnover
7.70 Adams
10.64 Dalton
11.53 James
12.17 Kelley
12.36 Lieberman
17.37 Herndon
21.96 McManamen
22.30 Naughton
22.71 Aka Gorski

Marshall has 1 turnover in 44 minutes, Barnes has 1 in 39 minutes, Moemeka has 7 in 69 minutes and Averbuck has 0 in 28 minutes. They clearly don't have enough minutes for the data to be useful.

James and Dalton are the go to guys for this squad which makes it pretty reasonable that they average more turnovers than the rest of the team. Kelley and Lieberman are barely ahead of James in this category which negates the "point guards take care of the ball" argument. I'm fine with Kelley having a number like this as he's a redshirt freshman who has improved as the season has progressed. Lieberman should have the maturity to have numbers like Aka Gorski and Naughton, especially as a point guard. James, Kelley, and Lieberman all need to do a better job of taking care of the ball for this team to have a chance in the conference tournament.

Looking through the stats, Adams had 15 of his 23 turnovers in a 3 game stretch(Cornell, Troy, Depaul). He also only has 177 minutes on the season which is quite a bit fewer than most other players. Combined, these are the major reasons behind him having such a low number. Not to excuse Adams, this argument can be made for others such as Lieberman who has 15 of 25 total turnovers in 4 games.

On the other side, Aka Gorski is really smart with the ball and doesn't force much. Naughton's numbers are impressive for a big man who actually gets the ball in the post on occasion. McManamen's and Herndon's numbers reflect their maturity and role player approach to the game.

I like your Minutes Player Per Turnover. Naughton was the biggest surprise to me through all of this. He was consistently higher than I anticipated he would have been and is very smart with the ball. He maximizes his minutes. It's a shame he doesn't see the floor more than he does.

 

[LanderPoke]

I think Dalton should be starting but I don't agree that James should yet.

To me Dalton is the best all around player on the team and James is a player with the most "potential".

The problem with James as has been stated is he turns the ball over to much and makes mental mistakes. It isn't just that he turns the ball over that is the problem. It is that he does it at the worst possible times, like in crunch time and they are turnovers that don't have to happen. Until he can get to where he plays smarter I think he gets enough minutes.

They guy I think that has been playing better that should keep getting minutes is Kelley. I would play him over Lieberman all the time.

Maybe James will pull his head out and start being smarter and playing to his potential so I can agree he should get more minutes.

To me at this point the only person on the team who i can say for sure should get more minutes is Dalton. Atleast when he turns it over it is not in crunch time and usually he is hustling.

So, just to be clear, you don't think that James, who is leading in points and steals, and is at a minimum in the top 5 in every possible positive statistical category should be getting more minutes?

He's barely playing over half the game. What more could James possibly do to merit more minutes?

And James is going to have turnovers, especially when the ball is in his hands as much as it is and he's being the main creator with Dalton. To me it's not shocking that Dalton and James lead in TOs. They're the only ones that can create for themselves and others. It comes with the territory.

To get more minutes he can stop turning the ball over in crunch time when he needs to be smart. He has basically been a big reason we have lost a couple of games because he makes stupid plays at the end of games when he doesn't need to. And him creating is part of his problem because all he is doing is creating turnovers because he isn't smart about it. The turnovers Dalton gets are different then the ones James gets. James gets turnovers from lazy passes and from jumping in mid air underneath the rim and throwing it away.

Dalton usually gets turnovers from hustling.

Maybe James should start and play during the middle of the game then pull him out the last 5 minutes so he can't be stupid with the ball. Not sure what the answer is.

Totally Agreed.

They make different kinds of turnovers. If James turned the ball over being aggressive going to the rim, we would all accept that.

What we can't except are the lazy mental turnovers in the back court, the ones he makes when he's not squaring his shoulders to pass the ball, or the ones he makes when he's panicked near the end of a game.

James needs to use his turnovers while going to the rim, not bringing the ball up.

You guys are ridiculous. Lots of James' TOs are when he tries to feed the big men off of drives. How is that a bad TO? In my book a TO is a TO is a TO. Kelly and Lieberman turn it over as much as James and hardly do jack crap out there. I guess we just disagree.

 

[joshvanklomp]

Until Justin James stops throwing the ball out of bounds to lose us road games, I don't want him to start.

In fact, if he keeps throwing the ball out of bounds to lose us games, I don't want him in down the stretch either.

He needs to learn to protect the rock. Then he can start.

Dalton is an energy player. Energy players are more effective off the bench. You bring them in when you're team is lacking life or hustle to give the team a spark. He does it incredibly well. He's very good at coming in off the bench and getting the team going on a run. You don't do that by accident. That's a skill to be able to come in off the bench and spark runs.

It's not like our starters are digging a big hole for James and Dalton to dig out of. They're playing the game effectively too.

I could see starting Dalton, because I like the turnovers he gets: mostly aggressive in nature and not a bunch of lazy, stupid, passes.

James, until he figures out how to protect the ball in the backcourt, needs to be coming off the bench.

I like it. I think Edwards is motivating both Dalton and James to be the best versions of themselves.

Hey, someone gets it!

 

[LanderPoke]

Until Justin James stops throwing the ball out of bounds to lose us road games, I don't want him to start.

In fact, if he keeps throwing the ball out of bounds to lose us games, I don't want him in down the stretch either.

He needs to learn to protect the rock. Then he can start.

Dalton is an energy player. Energy players are more effective off the bench. You bring them in when you're team is lacking life or hustle to give the team a spark. He does it incredibly well. He's very good at coming in off the bench and getting the team going on a run. You don't do that by accident. That's a skill to be able to come in off the bench and spark runs.

It's not like our starters are digging a big hole for James and Dalton to dig out of. They're playing the game effectively too.

I could see starting Dalton, because I like the turnovers he gets: mostly aggressive in nature and not a bunch of lazy, stupid, passes.

James, until he figures out how to protect the ball in the backcourt, needs to be coming off the bench.

I like it. I think Edwards is motivating both Dalton and James to be the best versions of themselves.

Hey, someone gets it!

Lost on you two is the fact that we wouldn't even be in the game if it weren't for everything good that James does.

So you guys really think that Kelly and Lieberman are just as good as James?