SP+ Preseason Projections

[Poke in New England]

Really hates us this season.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/34431935/college-football-final-sp+-2022-preseason-projections

For those who arent with ESPN+, the Pokes are ranked 111th in the final preseason SP+. 86th ranked on defense and dreadful 125th ranked offense.

4.5 projected wins, only so high because we play two teams ranked in the 120s, two more ranked in the 90s, and one FCS team. It is very down on the conference. It sure would be nice to have our shit together considering that there are 6 teams NOT including Wyoming who are ranked 95 or lower. Only Boise and Fresno crack the top 50.

On an interesting note, we are 129th out of 131 in terms of returning production (Wyo returns 35%), ahead of conference mates Hawaii and Nevada. All three teams have among the lowest returning production for any team since 2014 - Nevada is dead last at 22%. Isnt the transfer portal fun?

 

[cowpoke pride]

We have seen puzzling and frustrating seasons in the somewhat recent past. This one could be at the top of both lists with all of the unknowns going in. Hoping for the best but not super optimistic.

Just beat a dog butt bad New Mexico this year (and CSU every year) please.

 

[LanderPoke]

The ESPN metric hates western teams. Sagarin and Massey are traditionally more favorable to the MWC and PAC than ESPN.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

Really hates us this season.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/34431935/college-football-final-sp+-2022-preseason-projections

For those who arent with ESPN+, the Pokes are ranked 111th in the final preseason SP+. 86th ranked on defense and dreadful 125th ranked offense.

4.5 projected wins, only so high because we play two teams ranked in the 120s, two more ranked in the 90s, and one FCS team. It is very down on the conference. It sure would be nice to have our Sh#t together considering that there are 6 teams NOT including Wyoming who are ranked 95 or lower. Only Boise and Fresno crack the top 50.

On an interesting note, we are 129th out of 131 in terms of returning production (Wyo returns 35%), ahead of conference mates Hawaii and Nevada. All three teams have among the lowest returning production for any team since 2014 - Nevada is dead last at 22%. Isnt the transfer portal fun?

Unfortunately, the statistic is spot on and I believe is hard to argue with. I hate to say but I think G5 teams getting decimated by the portal is going to be closer to the norm than the exception. We lose good starters to P5 teams and then back fill with P5 walk-ons from USC and Bama. I agree with you, NIL and transfer portal is going to quickly end my interest in college football.

 

[Bryoming]

The ESPN metric hates western teams. Sagarin and Massey are traditionally more favorable to the MWC and PAC than ESPN.

There was a pretty compelling article put out in the last year or two that showed SP+ was biased against conferences that did not have contracts with ESPN. I'll see if I can find it.

 

[Poke in New England]

The ESPN metric hates western teams. Sagarin and Massey are traditionally more favorable to the MWC and PAC than ESPN.

There was a pretty compelling article put out in the last year or two that showed SP+ was biased against conferences that did not have contracts with ESPN. I'll see if I can find it.

I doubt that would be anything more than a coincidence. Bill Connelly has done SP+ for many years and only recently took it to ESPN.

 

[Bryoming]

The ESPN metric hates western teams. Sagarin and Massey are traditionally more favorable to the MWC and PAC than ESPN.

There was a pretty compelling article put out in the last year or two that showed SP+ was biased against conferences that did not have contracts with ESPN. I'll see if I can find it.

I doubt that would be anything more than a coincidence. Bill Connelly has done SP+ for many years and only recently took it to ESPN.

Maybe I'm thinking of FPI