Everything hinges on timing and the playoff negotiations (in 2 years, I think).
Until the new playoff format is agreed to and extended, nobody knows what will happen. If the playoff moves to the P2, then A LOT changes. If pacwhatever, maintains an autobid while g5 loses autobid, the pac will poach. If pacwhatever loses p5 or whatever status, then they will fold or seek to be best if whatever remains.
The next step will completely remake college football. Arguing over who gets relegated to the dregs with us is a fool's errand. We know we'll be with the dregs. After that, does it really matter?