After looking at the numbers for all the games the Vols and the Pokes have played, and looked at the rankings of each of our opponents offensive and defensive statistics for the year so far, I have come to the conclusion that this is a very winnable game for us. Northern Illinois had them on the ropes in Knoxville by playing good run defense. This is the key...shut down the Vols running game and you essentially shut down their offense. In all the games that they have played, this has been the case. That...and holding onto the ball. Now, I am not saying that doing this alone will guarantee us the win. I'm just saying that these are keys to keeping us in the game. What I worry about is what our offense will be able to do against their defense. The Vols have the #11 ranked defense in the country, giving up an average of 105yds rushing and 171yds passing per game. Everyone that remotely follows college football knows where our offense lies (ranked #36 in rush offense). This game is going to come down to who can run the ball...plain and simple.
So...after all of the number crunching, I have come to the conclusion that this will be a low scoring game. If DMo rushes for over 100yds with Wynel getting another 70, we win 17-10 (with no fumbles). If the Vol D steps up and shuts our total run production down to below 100yds, we lose 13-3. If we turnover the ball (pick-6, fumble returns....) or allow a special teams TD, we lose by the spread.