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RPI Wizard

SLCPoke

SLCPoke

Well-known member
Pretty cool website I stumbled across.....does this Wyoming team make the tourney? http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;




That would mean the Pokes finish out like this:


 
I think Wyoming has to have 3 conference losses or less and make a good run at the MW tournament to even dream of getting an at large bid.
 
we steal a few on the road in places we haven't been able to in the past few years, (the Pit, UNLV and CSU) I think we'll be fine this year!!
 
If we have 3 conference losses and win one tournament game, we are a lock for the NCAA. Anything less than that puts us on the bubble.

WW
 
WilyWapiti said:
If we have 3 conference losses and win one tournament game, we are a lock for the NCAA. Anything less than that puts us on the bubble.

WW
Click to expand...


Yep, I think 12-6 gets us in the NIT and 15-3 gets us in the Big Dance, depending somewhat on MWCT performance. 14-4 would have us in the conversation, assuming we have at least a couple of wins against CSU and SDSU to give us a couple of Top 50 wins on the resume.

I think our OOC just put us in too big of a hole. Some of it is bad luck and some of it is bad scheduling, but here we are.
 
I don't think any of it is bad scheduling and all of it is bad luck. Outside of Florida A&M and Stetson, none of the teams that we scheduled have been RPI killers the past few seasons. We scheduled D2 schools so that we could get a couple more scrimmage games, similar to FAMU and Stetson, that wouldn't impact our RPI. Unfortunately, all of the teams we beat are having less-than-impressive seasons. All of them. CU and NMSU should have been bigger wins for us, but CU is not very good and NMSU is out a couple of their best players.

Cal wasn't a bad loss until they dropped one to Bakersfield. That dropped us about 50 spots in the RPI. I still think Cal is a good team, but that one loss was backbreaking.

If the cards could have fallen right, our schedule could have been a good one for our RPI. It was pretty similar to the one CSU had in Miles last year. Instead, all the wrong things have happened. I expect teams like Cal, CU, SMU, NMSU, and maybe even Southern to eventually help us out a little. For now, we just need to take care of our own business and win conference games. Basically, if we avoid bad losses and pick up several quality wins in conference play, we'll have a good enough resume - no matter what the RPI formula spits out.
 
wyopig said:
I don't think any of it is bad scheduling and all of it is bad luck. Outside of Florida A&M and Stetson, none of the teams that we scheduled have been RPI killers the past few seasons. We scheduled D2 schools so that we could get a couple more scrimmage games, similar to FAMU and Stetson, that wouldn't impact our RPI. Unfortunately, all of the teams we beat are having less-than-impressive seasons. All of them. CU and NMSU should have been bigger wins for us, but CU is not very good and NMSU is out a couple of their best players.

Cal wasn't a bad loss until they dropped one to Bakersfield. That dropped us about 50 spots in the RPI. I still think Cal is a good team, but that one loss was backbreaking.

If the cards could have fallen right, our schedule could have been a good one for our RPI. It was pretty similar to the one CSU had in Miles last year. Instead, all the wrong things have happened. I expect teams like Cal, CU, SMU, NMSU, and maybe even Southern to eventually help us out a little. For now, we just need to take care of our own business and win conference games. Basically, if we avoid bad losses and pick up several quality wins in conference play, we'll have a good enough resume - no matter what the RPI formula spits out.
Click to expand...


There have certainly been some bad breaks. SMU, Cal, and NMSU have all had injuries and other issues which haven't let them reach their full potential. SMU still looks to be really good and will probably win their league, but..well we lost that game. Cal was always going to be only a moderate level opponent with a new coach picked to finish 7th in the P12. If Bird had been healthy they would probably have a better resume now, but like SMU we lost so you only get so much mileage out of quality losses. NMSU has probably been hit the hardest. If they can get back to full strength they will dominate their league and probably won't hurt us that bad, but if they had been healthy they could have been a potential Top 100 win.

The D2 games are fine (to a point, no RPI impact anyway) and the UNC, CU, and DU regional home and homes are solid scheduling. DU and CU have been disappointments, but I expect DU to still win a lot of Summit games.

Now, comes the problem. In-season home and home with a Montana State program that is having to rebuild completely after firing their coach. They were picked 11th in the Big Sky (which usually means a sub 300 RPI team). We may not have known where they would be picked, but we knew they would have a new coach and a depleted roster when the series was signed. Stetson and FAMU were scheduled as part of a package of games that involved UNC and NMSU. We have done something similar in past years with UT Martin/Arkansas St. last year and NC Central/Southern the year before. On paper it looks similar,except that FAMU and Stetson are both much further down in their respective conferences. NC Central is one of the top teams in the MEAC (preseason 1st this year) while FAMU is the worst program in that conference (picked last out of 13 this year).

The casual fan may just see different flavors of cupcakes, but the RPI impact is dramatic when comparing a 23-9 NC Central team (hypothetically) with a 5-25 FAMU team (again, hypothetically). Those 4 games (MSUx2, Stetson, FAMU) are the type of game you absolutely have to avoid.

CSU didn't really play a more difficult schedule than Wyoming, they played a smarter schedule. We have a lot of shared opponents (DU, UNC, CU, NMSU) and the top teams they faced (UTEP?, Georgia St.?) are not any tougher than the top teams we faced (SMU, Cal). They just avoided the RPI bombs like FAMU/Stetson/MSU.

Obviously it is easy for me to say this, since I am not the one tasked with convincing opponents to travel to Laramie, WY in November and December. However, I don't see why we couldn't replace games with MSU and maybe one of the other cupcake games with a neutral court tourney such as the Great Alaska Shootout like CSU did. They didn't play any great teams up there, but they got 3 neutral court wins over teams that will likely finish with a winning record (Missouri State, Pacific, UCSB).
 
I just ran the wizard, putting in that we lose the three big road games (SDSU, UNLV, UNM). Our RPI would be 37. A home loss to SDSU would drop the RPI to 52.
 
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