carbonpoke said:
1. They are favored.
2. They are a running team, option oriented.
3. They have a much better defense than we do.
4. We are playing in Lincoln.
5. Our offense is designed to score more efficiently than their's... its the truth... space between defenders statistically improves points per game.
6. Brett Smith is a pro prospect qb. Taylor Martinez will have to rely on his degree for money. Not bullshatting here...
Husker fan here. To respond to these points...
1. We're favored. But that's Vegas. We were also favored against you guys in 1994 when we won the first of our modern MNC's, but the Cowboys came in and dominated the first half with what appears on the outside like a really similar offensive philosophy - spread us out and work the gaps in the defensive backfield. That'll work again if we can't generate pressure on Smith, and the weakest part of our defense is the D Line.
2. We're not an option team anymore. Tim Beck, our OC, has us at about a 50/50 run/pass ratio. We break out the Option play every once in a while but frankly, this group is not good at it. While it used to be a staple, I cringe whenever we run it lately. We have a zone-read based run game (which is Option-ish, granted) and what should be a pretty good passing game. We have what should be the best O Line we've had in a decade this year, so expect lots of power runs like traps, Iso's and the toss sweep. Martinez can hurt you several ways, and frankly this is probably our best WR corps at Nebraska, ever. But if you bring pressure Martinez can be rattled - or bust off a 60-yard TD run. You just never know.
3. Better defense - that's yet to be seen. We've got guys who were higher-rated when recruited and most likely better athletes, but this means nothing, honestly. We've struggled against good and bad teams. Defense is easily the biggest question-mark on this team. We return four guys with starting experience, and the D Linemen we return are the weakest of the bunch we had last year. We have no idea what we're getting in that D Line, and we could be transitioning to a 3-4 base defense, so who knows. This defense gave up 650 yards to UCLA, 500 yards to Ohio State, 640 yards to Wisconsin (a five-loss team) and another 600 yards to Georgia. Granted, Wyoming isn't on the same level as these teams, but this defense isn't on the same level as Nebraska defenses of yore.
4. Agreed. Come on over and we'll show you a good time.
5. Not sure this is true. We scored 35 points per game last year, ranked 28th in the country in Scoring Offense, and return basically every skill player who got significant time last year. Our Strength of Schedule was 20th in the nation (Sagarin). This Nebraska offense could be truly scary this year. Wyoming's offense ranked 72nd in Scoring Offense and you folks played the 101st-ranked SOS. I don't know if you can even say that
by scheme your offense is designed to score more points, because we put up points against everybody, including 30 or more points against the nos. 9, 16, 17 (twice) and 18 Scoring Defenses in 2012.
6. Agreed about pro prospects. Of the two, the only one with a chance at playing QB in the NFL is Smith. Martinez would be a WR or DB if he made it in the NFL. He's a hell of an athlete, but a true passing QB he's not. That said, I have never seen a kid dedicate more of his personal time to making himself better than Martinez, who spent each of the last two Spring Breaks and both summers attending camps and clinics to improve. He was worlds better last year, both mechanically and in making better decisions, but as has been mentioned several times in this thread, Martinez is deeply flawed and always will be. He's just not a natural QB. He leads the nation in turnovers the last three years which is alarming, and the rest of the offense turns the ball over frequently, too. Smith is a far better natural passer.
What does all that mean? Not much. Nebraska will likely win and it may not be close. But I know this Nebraska team, and I won't rule out any opponent. We have a tendency to make games that should be laughers too close for comfort. And this Nebraska team can't hold a candle to that 1994 Nebraska team - and you guys led at halftime and scared the hell out of me that year. I was at that game, and I remember vividly watching your receivers run free downfield.
