Pumphrey is a great running back, no doubt. But his stats have been inflated by playing teams that are pretty bad vs. the run. Comparing Pumphrey and Hill's stats against common opponents this season, Pumphrey has the slight edge with 6.7 YPC to Hill's 6.1 YPC.
The run defense ranking of the non-common teams SDS has played are 93, 119, 125, 126 & 127 (avg-#118)
The run defense ranking of the non-common teams WYO has played are 23, 38, 48, 66 & 95 (avg-#54)
So yeah, Pumphrey averages a little less than a yard per carry more than Hill, but he's done it against the easiest schedule imaginable. On paper it looks dominating, but dig down a little deeper and see who they've played against. Teams that can't stop the run and all their FBS opponents with losing records. Plus, Hill has more TDs and Pumphey has been tackled for a loss more times than Hill.
Losing this past Saturday takes a lot of shine off of this game, but I still think it'll be a close one, as does Vegas. We won't stop Pumphrey, but they won't stop Allen/Hill. I say we beat them by less than a TD in another high scoring game. The weather looks good for Saturday, too bad...