Pessimism level is...up?

[307bball]

Sitting here the morning after the college football championship having some thoughts. The topic of the overall trends in collegiate athletics as it pertains to Wyoming sports has pretty much consumed this board the last month or so. One of the themes that has bubbled to the surface is something like the following -

If college football goes down the path of decreasing amateurism...then everyone, including the big guys, will suffer due to overall interest diminishing as competitive power continues to accrue in fewer and fewer schools.

While I agree that the power will continue to go to fewer and fewer institutions...I don't think engagement will diminish.

I watched the championship game and I gotta say...the ability of a high level sporting contest to deliver a a great entertainment product is unmatched. Good sports are just so pleasing to watch. It is compelling when an evenly matched contest, in any sport, is delivered. There is a reason that live sports are the only thing left that even remotely makes certain streaming/cable services worth it. I consider myself a rabid Cowboy sports fan...heck, I used to attend rugby, volleyball, hockey, and wrestling contests when I lived in Laramie...but I'm also just a *sports* fan, regardless of fan affiliation.

Unpopular opinion warning...I think Wyoming's ability to field a nationally competitive men's basketball or football team, over any three year stretch, will continue to decrease. Not only that but the changes in college sports will drive overall engagement up... not down. I think the memories I have of attending games in Laramie and Wyoming's position in the college football landscape in the late eighties and early nineties will never be repeated. I've argued with people on this message board when it comes to the Glenn v Bohl debate that Bohl's weaker conference should not be held against him .... while I still believe that to be the case, the overall strength of the conference does seem to matter for other things. The MW and other "lesser" conferences are continuing to get get relagated....I hate the SEC...but I realize that hate is driven by envy. I want to be a true fan of an SEC level program. And have real big time teams come to my teams town to play. That is turning out to be a childish dream.

 

[cowboyz]

Sitting here the morning after the college football championship having some thoughts. The topic of the overall trends in collegiate athletics as it pertains to Wyoming sports has pretty much consumed this board the last month or so. One of the themes that has bubbled to the surface is something like the following -

If college football goes down the path of decreasing amateurism...then everyone, including the big guys, will suffer due to overall interest diminishing as competitive power continues to accrue in fewer and fewer schools.

While I agree that the power will continue to go to fewer and fewer institutions...I don't think engagement will diminish.

I watched the championship game and I gotta say...the ability of a high level sporting contest to deliver a a great entertainment product is unmatched. Good sports are just so pleasing to watch. It is compelling when an evenly matched contest, in any sport, is delivered. There is a reason that live sports are the only thing left that even remotely makes certain streaming/cable services worth it. I consider myself a rabid Cowboy sports fan...heck, I used to attend rugby, volleyball, hockey, and wrestling contests when I lived in Laramie...but I'm also just a *sports* fan, regardless of fan affiliation.

Unpopular opinion warning...I think Wyoming's ability to field a nationally competitive men's basketball or football team, over any three year stretch, will continue to decrease. Not only that but the changes in college sports will drive overall engagement up... not down. I think the memories I have of attending games in Laramie and Wyoming's position in the college football landscape in the late eighties and early nineties will never be repeated. I've argued with people on this message board when it comes to the Glenn v Bohl debate that Bohl's weaker conference should not be held against him .... while I still believe that to be the case, the overall strength of the conference does seem to matter for other things. The MW and other "lesser" conferences are continuing to get get relagated....I hate the SEC...but I realize that hate is driven by envy. I want to be a true fan of an SEC level program. And have real big time teams come to my teams town to play. That is turning out to be a childish dream.

Yep, we're playing for Conference Championships, rivalry games, a bowl game and the occasional upset (if money teams will even play the scrubs in the future). We have no chance of a National Championship, unless they open it to all conference winners, as they should.

 

[307bball]

Sitting here the morning after the college football championship having some thoughts. The topic of the overall trends in collegiate athletics as it pertains to Wyoming sports has pretty much consumed this board the last month or so. One of the themes that has bubbled to the surface is something like the following -

If college football goes down the path of decreasing amateurism...then everyone, including the big guys, will suffer due to overall interest diminishing as competitive power continues to accrue in fewer and fewer schools.

While I agree that the power will continue to go to fewer and fewer institutions...I don't think engagement will diminish.

I watched the championship game and I gotta say...the ability of a high level sporting contest to deliver a a great entertainment product is unmatched. Good sports are just so pleasing to watch. It is compelling when an evenly matched contest, in any sport, is delivered. There is a reason that live sports are the only thing left that even remotely makes certain streaming/cable services worth it. I consider myself a rabid Cowboy sports fan...heck, I used to attend rugby, volleyball, hockey, and wrestling contests when I lived in Laramie...but I'm also just a *sports* fan, regardless of fan affiliation.

Unpopular opinion warning...I think Wyoming's ability to field a nationally competitive men's basketball or football team, over any three year stretch, will continue to decrease. Not only that but the changes in college sports will drive overall engagement up... not down. I think the memories I have of attending games in Laramie and Wyoming's position in the college football landscape in the late eighties and early nineties will never be repeated. I've argued with people on this message board when it comes to the Glenn v Bohl debate that Bohl's weaker conference should not be held against him .... while I still believe that to be the case, the overall strength of the conference does seem to matter for other things. The MW and other "lesser" conferences are continuing to get get relagated....I hate the SEC...but I realize that hate is driven by envy. I want to be a true fan of an SEC level program. And have real big time teams come to my teams town to play. That is turning out to be a childish dream.

Yep, we're playing for Conference Championships, rivalry games, a bowl game and the occasional upset (if money teams will even play the scrubs in the future). We have no chance of a National Championship, unless they open it to all conference winners, as they should.

I guess that is something...The conference championships seem to be getting less and less prestigious as time goes by....at least in basketball it is tied to access to an overall tournament that crowns a champion. The days of getting something like that for football seem completely gone.

*edit... a legit chance at a nat'l championship is not really the dealbreaker for me...just being at the table would be nice.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

After several days of reflection, I'm having a hard time figuring out what changed for WYO other than the transfer rules?

Neyor was likely gone regardless. There could be $0 and he'd still go to the bigger stage. The transfer rules made it easier.

We didn't lose anyone else to money. The transfer rules made it easy for them to leave but at least some of them would have left anyway. We haven't lost out on recruits because of money or NIL. Our recruiting class ranking is in line with where it always has been.

If we schedule well OOC, and win all our games, an Access Bowl is possible.

No, I'm not pessimistic after thinking on it. The portal changes the system and we'll have to figure that out (so will everyone else in college football). As for the rest, nothing has changed that much. The P5, G5 distinction already did the damage and we're living with that.

 

[307bball]

After several days of reflection, I'm having a hard time figuring out what changed for WYO other than the transfer rules?

Neyor was likely gone regardless. There could be $0 and he'd still go to the bigger stage. The transfer rules made it easier.

We didn't lose anyone else to money. The transfer rules made it easy for them to leave but at least some of them would have left anyway. We haven't lost out on recruits because of money or NIL. Our recruiting class ranking is in line with where it always has been.

If we schedule well OOC, and win all our games, an Access Bowl is possible.

No, I'm not pessimistic after thinking on it. The portal changes the system and we'll have to figure that out (so will everyone else in college football). As for the rest, nothing has changed that much. The P5, G5 distinction already did the damage and we're living with that.

I agree w/you that the transfer rule is a huge change and the $$ issue is a minor one (for Wyoming). The way I see it, every change that has happened has been bad for small fanbase schools and good for large fanbase schools. The chance to accrue talent in small time programs, to a level that moves the needle was always tough .... now that chance is miniscule and as soon as it gets achieved it will dissipate the next year as players make the most of the options available to them. I actually believe, in general, our chances of winning the conference have increased slightly over time as the conference overall has gotten weaker. The problem is, our best players will always be leaving, and the incoming players will not be as good (on average). This leads to a situation where any great year gets followed with rapid decline. Does anybody see any evidence that we could ever win 40 games in five years?

Consider even winning 35 games in five years. We won 39 games from 1987-1991 and won 34 games from 2015-2019...38 games from 1995-1999.

My metric is success over time...anybody can get lucky for given enough years...the best programs are just consistently good. I don't see a way to get there given the mounting challenges. I think there are haves and have nots even emerging in the MWC...from a competitive standpoint we are in danger of slipping firmly into the ranks of the UNM, UNLV, SJSU ranks. The way I see it...

Tier 1: BSU, SDSU
Tier 2: AFA, Fresno
Tier 3: USU, WYO, CSU, NEV, HAW
Tier 4: UNM, SJSU, UNLV

I see the gaps in these tiers getting worse...not better. Look, none of the MW schools are going to win the national championship anytime soon...but that bottom tier is there for a lot of reasons that don't have to do with football strategy...same for the guys on the top. Nothing about how often we pass vs run will ever address those reasons. Those are the reasons I'm pessimistic.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

After several days of reflection, I'm having a hard time figuring out what changed for WYO other than the transfer rules?

Neyor was likely gone regardless. There could be $0 and he'd still go to the bigger stage. The transfer rules made it easier.

We didn't lose anyone else to money. The transfer rules made it easy for them to leave but at least some of them would have left anyway. We haven't lost out on recruits because of money or NIL. Our recruiting class ranking is in line with where it always has been.

If we schedule well OOC, and win all our games, an Access Bowl is possible.

No, I'm not pessimistic after thinking on it. The portal changes the system and we'll have to figure that out (so will everyone else in college football). As for the rest, nothing has changed that much. The P5, G5 distinction already did the damage and we're living with that.

I agree w/you that the transfer rule is a huge change and the $$ issue is a minor one (for Wyoming). The way I see it, every change that has happened has been bad for small fanbase schools and good for large fanbase schools. The chance to accrue talent in small time programs, to a level that moves the needle was always tough .... now that chance is miniscule and as soon as it gets achieved it will dissipate the next year as players make the most of the options available to them. I actually believe, in general, our chances of winning the conference have increased slightly over time as the conference overall has gotten weaker. The problem is, our best players will always be leaving, and the incoming players will not be as good (on average). This leads to a situation where any great year gets followed with rapid decline. Does anybody see any evidence that we could ever win 40 games in five years?

Consider even winning 35 games in five years. We won 39 games from 1987-1991 and won 34 games from 2015-2019...38 games from 1995-1999.

My metric is success over time...anybody can get lucky for given enough years...the best programs are just consistently good. I don't see a way to get there given the mounting challenges. I think there are haves and have nots even emerging in the MWC...from a competitive standpoint we are in danger of slipping firmly into the ranks of the UNM, UNLV, SJSU ranks. The way I see it...

Tier 1: BSU, SDSU
Tier 2: AFA, Fresno
Tier 3: USU, WYO, CSU, NEV, HAW
Tier 4: UNM, SJSU, UNLV

I see the gaps in these tiers getting worse...not better. Look, none of the MW schools are going to win the national championship anytime soon...but that bottom tier is there for a lot of reasons that don't have to do with football strategy...same for the guys on the top. Nothing about how often we pass vs run will ever address those reasons. Those are the reasons I'm pessimistic.

Thinking about it a different way, I could actually see parity increasing in the G5 ranks. One thing suds and bsu usually have is better talent and they are just as prone to being plucked as we are. In fact, the better teams might end up getting plucked more and deeper than us. It is conceivable that tier 1 G5 and tier 3-4 P5 will suffer the worst in high impact attrition. We'll lose a stud or two each year; bsu might lose 4-6. Everyone will lose various other players.

 

[307bball]

After several days of reflection, I'm having a hard time figuring out what changed for WYO other than the transfer rules?

Neyor was likely gone regardless. There could be $0 and he'd still go to the bigger stage. The transfer rules made it easier.

We didn't lose anyone else to money. The transfer rules made it easy for them to leave but at least some of them would have left anyway. We haven't lost out on recruits because of money or NIL. Our recruiting class ranking is in line with where it always has been.

If we schedule well OOC, and win all our games, an Access Bowl is possible.

No, I'm not pessimistic after thinking on it. The portal changes the system and we'll have to figure that out (so will everyone else in college football). As for the rest, nothing has changed that much. The P5, G5 distinction already did the damage and we're living with that.

I agree w/you that the transfer rule is a huge change and the $$ issue is a minor one (for Wyoming). The way I see it, every change that has happened has been bad for small fanbase schools and good for large fanbase schools. The chance to accrue talent in small time programs, to a level that moves the needle was always tough .... now that chance is miniscule and as soon as it gets achieved it will dissipate the next year as players make the most of the options available to them. I actually believe, in general, our chances of winning the conference have increased slightly over time as the conference overall has gotten weaker. The problem is, our best players will always be leaving, and the incoming players will not be as good (on average). This leads to a situation where any great year gets followed with rapid decline. Does anybody see any evidence that we could ever win 40 games in five years?

Consider even winning 35 games in five years. We won 39 games from 1987-1991 and won 34 games from 2015-2019...38 games from 1995-1999.

My metric is success over time...anybody can get lucky for given enough years...the best programs are just consistently good. I don't see a way to get there given the mounting challenges. I think there are haves and have nots even emerging in the MWC...from a competitive standpoint we are in danger of slipping firmly into the ranks of the UNM, UNLV, SJSU ranks. The way I see it...

Tier 1: BSU, SDSU
Tier 2: AFA, Fresno
Tier 3: USU, WYO, CSU, NEV, HAW
Tier 4: UNM, SJSU, UNLV

I see the gaps in these tiers getting worse...not better. Look, none of the MW schools are going to win the national championship anytime soon...but that bottom tier is there for a lot of reasons that don't have to do with football strategy...same for the guys on the top. Nothing about how often we pass vs run will ever address those reasons. Those are the reasons I'm pessimistic.

Thinking about it a different way, I could actually see parity increasing in the G5 ranks. One thing suds and bsu usually have is better talent and they are just as prone to being plucked as we are. In fact, the better teams might end up getting plucked more and deeper than us. It is conceivable that tier 1 G5 and tier 3-4 P5 will suffer the worst in high impact attrition. We'll lose a stud or two each year; bsu might lose 4-6. Everyone will lose various other players.

Good point...

 

[laxwyo]

After several days of reflection, I'm having a hard time figuring out what changed for WYO other than the transfer rules?

Neyor was likely gone regardless. There could be $0 and he'd still go to the bigger stage. The transfer rules made it easier.

We didn't lose anyone else to money. The transfer rules made it easy for them to leave but at least some of them would have left anyway. We haven't lost out on recruits because of money or NIL. Our recruiting class ranking is in line with where it always has been.

If we schedule well OOC, and win all our games, an Access Bowl is possible.

No, I'm not pessimistic after thinking on it. The portal changes the system and we'll have to figure that out (so will everyone else in college football). As for the rest, nothing has changed that much. The P5, G5 distinction already did the damage and we're living with that.

I agree w/you that the transfer rule is a huge change and the $$ issue is a minor one (for Wyoming). The way I see it, every change that has happened has been bad for small fanbase schools and good for large fanbase schools. The chance to accrue talent in small time programs, to a level that moves the needle was always tough .... now that chance is miniscule and as soon as it gets achieved it will dissipate the next year as players make the most of the options available to them. I actually believe, in general, our chances of winning the conference have increased slightly over time as the conference overall has gotten weaker. The problem is, our best players will always be leaving, and the incoming players will not be as good (on average). This leads to a situation where any great year gets followed with rapid decline. Does anybody see any evidence that we could ever win 40 games in five years?

Consider even winning 35 games in five years. We won 39 games from 1987-1991 and won 34 games from 2015-2019...38 games from 1995-1999.

My metric is success over time...anybody can get lucky for given enough years...the best programs are just consistently good. I don't see a way to get there given the mounting challenges. I think there are haves and have nots even emerging in the MWC...from a competitive standpoint we are in danger of slipping firmly into the ranks of the UNM, UNLV, SJSU ranks. The way I see it...

Tier 1: BSU, SDSU
Tier 2: AFA, Fresno
Tier 3: USU, WYO, CSU, NEV, HAW
Tier 4: UNM, SJSU, UNLV

I see the gaps in these tiers getting worse...not better. Look, none of the MW schools are going to win the national championship anytime soon...but that bottom tier is there for a lot of reasons that don't have to do with football strategy...same for the guys on the top. Nothing about how often we pass vs run will ever address those reasons. Those are the reasons I'm pessimistic.

Thinking about it a different way, I could actually see parity increasing in the G5 ranks. One thing suds and bsu usually have is better talent and they are just as prone to being plucked as we are. In fact, the better teams might end up getting plucked more and deeper than us. It is conceivable that tier 1 G5 and tier 3-4 P5 will suffer the worst in high impact attrition. We'll lose a stud or two each year; bsu might lose 4-6. Everyone will lose various other players.

True. Good observation. Low level p5 might get it the worst. Oregon st could lose anyone worth a damn.

I’d prefer the top 16 money teams would start their own shit money show. You know the Texas schools will be throwing big money out there. Then hopefully the middle to low p5 and g5 can get back to playing college football.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

I’d prefer the top 16 money teams would start their own Sh#t money show. You know the Texas schools will be throwing big money out there. Then hopefully the middle to low p5 and g5 can get back to playing college football.

That's exactly what needs to happen. It seems everyone in college football is operating under the assumption that all money dries up once the big dogs are gone so everyone is doing everything they can to cling to their shirt tails.

I'm no media expert so that could be true. Maybe sorting off the biggest will also take all the media value with it. I'd predict that would be the case in the short term. However, I also wonder in the longterm, will that sustain? Those 16 (or however many) may find themselves in no man's land caught somewhere between college and pro. The other teams will clearly be identified as college. The right media partner could probably generate a pretty good buzz around the 100+ teams remaining.

Something like that needs to happen. Great point.