P12 - MWC

[ragtimejoe1]

What a reverse merger between Pac-12, Mountain West would have netted in TV revenue

In an alternate universe, the Mountain West and Pac-12 engineered a reverse merger and everybody avoided the lwasuits and

nevadasportsnet.com

That's an interesting take. If true, then we can throw out all the market stuff. Media partners would have told them more money per school if reverse merger. Now, I'm not sure that's true but it's entirely possible that it is correct.

If so, that means selective poaching came down to other factors.

 

[307bball]

What a reverse merger between Pac-12, Mountain West would have netted in TV revenue

In an alternate universe, the Mountain West and Pac-12 engineered a reverse merger and everybody avoided the lwasuits and

nevadasportsnet.com

That's an interesting take. If true, then we can throw out all the market stuff. Media partners would have told them more money per school if reverse merger. Now, I'm not sure that's true but it's entirely possible that it is correct.

If so, that means selective poaching came down to other factors.

Could you expound on this?...Is this article claiming that a theoretical merged PacMWC would have had higher payouts per team?

Also...what "market stuff" should we throw out?

 

[OrediggerPoke]

Could you expound on this?...Is this article claiming that a theoretical merged PacMWC would have had higher payouts per team?

Also...what "market stuff" should we throw out?

I personally believe a merged conference probably would have commanded more money per team. CBSSN and other networks were desperate for western time zone content. By creating two conferences, all we did was create competition for the media companies to negotiate the price down.

 

[PorkerPoke]

Chris Murray has been the MWC writer during all this that has bothered to write about it.

I have heard other sources say that in the TV industry there was under $150 million left after all the other deals and most likely around the $110 million mark.

The pee12 refuses to say how much the CBS deal is. I have heard that speculation it is likely to be around the $65 million per year mark for 6 years. That is about $7.2 million per program per year.

If the MWC gets anything close to the $45 million mark I have heard, that is over $4 million for the full members and at least $2 million for NIU.

Combined the 11 full time programs would have be around $9 million per year and Hawaii around $5 million.

The $110 million is a figure I have heard speculated and even the bozo pro pee12 podcasters were claiming the pee12 would maybe see up to $100 million with their media deals.

Hypothetically speaking if any of this becomes true, with the exit and poaching fees saved everyone would have benefited significantly - especially the pee12 programs who will be deducting the costs of their penalties from their media increase. If they don’t get a big enough media deal all they will be doing is bragging they are the best because their bottom line will not be significantly enhanced.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Could you expound on this?...Is this article claiming that a theoretical merged PacMWC would have had higher payouts per team?

Also...what "market stuff" should we throw out?

The dogma has been that expansion is driven by whatever the TV companies or market analysts say will provide the most money to each team. The 2nd dogma was that WYO doesn't have a market or student population which is largely why we weren't considered in pac expansion.

If the assumption of 10 mill or so per team in a full merger is true, then the above is largely inaccurate. Why?

My guess: 1) the full merger would have prevented osu and wsu from having final say in all matters. 2) they went more performance based to try to position for the playoff and ncaa tourney. 3) there are unknown/non-public underlying riffs in MWC.

Where the pac screwed up is that they didn't secure enough money to lure other teams away. 1 or 2 teams bolting for the p4 and they are screwed. MWC would be wise to consider more teams for long-term stability even if overall tv revenue dropped a little by splitting it up more.

 

[307bball]

The dogma has been that expansion is driven by whatever the TV companies or market analysts say will provide the most money to each team. The 2nd dogma was that WYO doesn't have a market or student population which is largely why we weren't considered in pac expansion.

If the assumption of 10 mill or so per team in a full merger is true, then the above is largely inaccurate. Why?

My guess: 1) the full merger would have prevented osu and wsu from having final say in all matters. 2) they went more performance based to try to position for the playoff and ncaa tourney. 3) there are unknown/non-public underlying riffs in MWC.

Where the pac screwed up is that they didn't secure enough money to lure other teams away. 1 or 2 teams bolting for the p4 and they are screwed. MWC would be wise to consider more teams for long-term stability even if overall tv revenue dropped a little by splitting it up more.

If I'm understanding you...there are two things here...the reason why Wyoming wasn't invited and the reason why expansion happens in general.

So ... for the sake of this discussion. Let's assume that market size and University size don't play a factor in expansion decisions. What explains UW never being mentioned? It's not like people commenting on this are saying it's close or that they made a mistake by not inviting Wyoming....It's like UW doesn't even exist. I guess the argument is that, well, since they don't really compete well....and don't have top notch programs competitively...nobody wants UW. Is that the answer?

The other question you brought up: What drives expansion generally? I still think it's overwhelmingly about $$...but egos are definitely involved. One more thing.. I do consulting work for colleges. Colleges and University's operate on longer timelines than the typical business cycle. The difference in dollar amount for the next 5-10 years could be big and they may still make a move that they think pays out over the next 30 years. And..back to egos....they care about prestige as well.

 

[Brew_Poke]

It’s pretty simple - Wyoming cannot turn a profit if it includes paying players. Accordingly, paying players cannot realistically happen at Wyoming without public funds or student fees being used to pay them. Under no circumstance do I believe it remotely appropriate for public funds or student fees to be used to pay athletes. Therefore, I am in favor Wyoming following a semi-amateur model of athletes receiving scholarships with reasonable food/living stipends but nothing else. Having a better football or basketball record is irrelevant to the question in my opinion because it is just plain wrong and government spending abuse to use public funds and student fees in such a way to pay players.

Think of it this way and if you are in college how would it make you feel knowing that you are partially paying the salary of the student next to you in class. Would you be happy that you are paying fees to pay the student next to you? It’s bullshit and I’d be pissed as a student.

Do I also believe coaching salaries are a bit inflated? Yes. But the coaching salary can be covered by revenues and typically is at Wyoming and there is clearly a defined market on coaching salaries. If we really want to dig into waste, look at what the University President is doing and his salary. Look at the salary of the AD and ask what is the market for a replaceable AD that could deliver like results.

They're already paying the salary of their fellow students who work in the library and bookstore...

 

[Itsux2beaewe]

So ... for the sake of this discussion. Let's assume that market size and University size don't play a factor in expansion decisions. What explains UW never being mentioned? It's not like people commenting on this are saying it's close or that they made a mistake by not inviting Wyoming....It's like UW doesn't even exist. I guess the argument is that, well, since they don't really compete well....and don't have top notch programs competitively...nobody wants UW. Is that the answer?

My guess is the other traitor schools didn’t want Wyo. The Ewes cant be better when the Pokes beat them more than not, as an example. I really believe the traitor schools worked against UW, and OSU WSU didn’t want to give up control (I hope the traitors get their fill of that, soon).

 

[OrediggerPoke]

They're already paying the salary of their fellow students who work in the library and bookstore...

For a functioning library and bookstore for the students to use in their studies. Although I believe the bookstore actually makes enough money to cover its overhead typically. It would be hard to argue that a functioning library does not advance the academic mission of the students.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

If I'm understanding you...there are two things here...the reason why Wyoming wasn't invited and the reason why expansion happens in general.

So ... for the sake of this discussion. Let's assume that market size and University size don't play a factor in expansion decisions. What explains UW never being mentioned? It's not like people commenting on this are saying it's close or that they made a mistake by not inviting Wyoming....It's like UW doesn't even exist. I guess the argument is that, well, since they don't really compete well....and don't have top notch programs competitively...nobody wants UW. Is that the answer?

The other question you brought up: What drives expansion generally? I still think it's overwhelmingly about $$...but egos are definitely involved. One more thing.. I do consulting work for colleges. Colleges and University's operate on longer timelines than the typical business cycle. The difference in dollar amount for the next 5-10 years could be big and they may still make a move that they think pays out over the next 30 years. And..back to egos....they care about prestige as well.

I'm talking specifically about the pac situation. I brought up the similar ratings and it appears consistent with this information. There's a couple teams (bsu, gonzaga, and maybe a few others) that can increase some value but overall there's not much difference.

Thus, WYO not being discussed wasn't because of market, TV, etc. I highly doubt even universities are naive enough to try to predict the next 30 years in athletics/tv contracts.

I think it's simple, reverse merger wasn't an option because wsu and osu wouldn't have full control. After that, WYO wasn't considered because virtually every sport has largely greatly underperformed relative to those that were selected despite the fact that our budget was on par with at least 2 or 3 of the detectors.

If accountability at WYO never sets in, we'll never see progress.

 

[PAPoke]

I really believe the traitor schools worked against UW

Why would the other schools collectively work to screw UW?

 

[OrediggerPoke]

Why would the other schools collectively work to screw UW?

It was to the benefit of the team's leaving the Mountain West for the Mountain West to dissolve (i.e. no exit fees). The Mountain West did a good job securing UNLV's and Air Force's commitment to prevent this result. Wyoming likely was never in the discussion for a PAC invite but I would surely bet UNLV was (especially after the AAC schools said no).

 

[PAPoke]

It was to the benefit of the team's leaving the Mountain West for the Mountain West to dissolve (i.e. no exit fees). The Mountain West did a good job securing UNLV's and Air Force's commitment to prevent this result. Wyoming likely was never in the discussion for a PAC invite but I would surely bet UNLV was (especially after the AAC schools said no).

I don't know if I'm tracking... I agree with what I bolded, but if that's true, again, why would the rest defectors work together to screw UW specifically? Or, are we suggesting they were trying to screw all of the remaining teams?

 

[OrediggerPoke]

I don't know if I'm tracking... I agree with what I bolded, but if that's true, again, why would the rest defectors work together to screw UW specifically? Or, are we suggesting they were trying to screw all of the remaining teams?

I believe they were trying to screw the teams that probably wouldn’t have had a home other than maybe CUSA (Wyoming, Nevada, SJSU). It was to their benefit to ‘screw’ these teams and they were not successful (at least not yet depending outcome of the ongoing litigation).

 

[307bball]

I'm talking specifically about the pac situation. I brought up the similar ratings and it appears consistent with this information. There's a couple teams (bsu, gonzaga, and maybe a few others) that can increase some value but overall there's not much difference.

Thus, WYO not being discussed wasn't because of market, TV, etc. I highly doubt even universities are naive enough to try to predict the next 30 years in athletics/tv contracts.

Trying to predict the next 30 years of tv contracts isn't the right way to look at it. The long term thinking and planning that I see in universities is different than merely "how much will our media rights contract be in the future"... To use this situation as an example, the remaining PAC schools, rightly or wrongly, are not planning to be on the outside looking in when it comes to big time college athletics in 10 to 30 years. The way this manifests is, perhaps, they are forgoing the extra cash in hand that could have been had in a reverse merger because they are predicting that a conference that is weighed down by Wyoming, Hawaii, UNM, Nev, and whomever else will never be a realistic power conference. That is the long term thinking I'm talking about. You and I have no Idea the parameters of those discussion (I am privy to some of them but not in the athletics realm) but they are definitely having them.

I think it's simple, reverse merger wasn't an option because wsu and osu wouldn't have full control. After that, WYO wasn't considered because virtually every sport has largely greatly underperformed relative to those that were selected despite the fact that our budget was on par with at least 2 or 3 of the detectors.

If accountability at WYO never sets in, we'll never see progress.

This is the only other plausible alternative if you just say that non-competitive factors don't matter in this right?

I guess you can make this case...it sort of conflicts with a couple other stories we tell ourselves. We often hear that Football is the thing making this happen...Wyoming football has not "greatly underperformed" relative to that group...maybe BSU..but the rest? If you rank the non BSU conference defectors with Wyoming by wins over the last 10 years .... it goes:

SDSU - 68
Fresno - 65
Wyo - 60
USU - 55
CSU - 41

If you go back further...It's about the same....We aren't some abysmal program here.

MBB is the next largest sport that matters...Wyoming would be somewhere near the bottom of that list but not blown away.

My question is: How much more success would UW athletics have needed to have competitively to get invited? What if Football and basketball were unchanged but our swimming, wrestling, and track were really good? What if Wyoming had Fresno's level of Football success?

 

[rocket city poke]

Trying to predict the next 30 years of tv contracts isn't the right way to look at it. The long term thinking and planning that I see in universities is different than merely "how much will our media rights contract be in the future"... To use this situation as an example, the remaining PAC schools, rightly or wrongly, are not planning to be on the outside looking in when it comes to big time college athletics in 10 to 30 years. The way this manifests is, perhaps, they are forgoing the extra cash in hand that could have been had in a reverse merger because they are predicting that a conference that is weighed down by Wyoming, Hawaii, UNM, Nev, and whomever else will never be a realistic power conference. That is the long term thinking I'm talking about. You and I have no Idea the parameters of those discussion (I am privy to some of them but not in the athletics realm) but they are definitely having them.



This is the only other plausible alternative if you just say that non-competitive factors don't matter in this right?

I guess you can make this case...it sort of conflicts with a couple other stories we tell ourselves. We often hear that Football is the thing making this happen...Wyoming football has not "greatly underperformed" relative to that group...maybe BSU..but the rest? If you rank the non BSU conference defectors with Wyoming by wins over the last 10 years .... it goes:

SDSU - 68
Fresno - 65
Wyo - 60
USU - 55
CSU - 41

If you go back further...It's about the same....We aren't some abysmal program here.

MBB is the next largest sport that matters...Wyoming would be somewhere near the bottom of that list but not blown away.

My question is: How much more success would UW athletics have needed to have competitively to get invited? What if Football and basketball were unchanged but our swimming, wrestling, and track were really good? What if Wyoming had Fresno's level of Football success?

Burman put all the emphasis on football to even get to the level that got at. The non-conference wins in football are just a smoke screen to cover up for the mediocrity.

More telling are these results: https://nevadasportsnet.com/news/re...-west-the-most-value-under-current-membership

UW doesn't "win" at anything. Just bad . . .

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Trying to predict the next 30 years of tv contracts isn't the right way to look at it. The long term thinking and planning that I see in universities is different than merely "how much will our media rights contract be in the future"... To use this situation as an example, the remaining PAC schools, rightly or wrongly, are not planning to be on the outside looking in when it comes to big time college athletics in 10 to 30 years. The way this manifests is, perhaps, they are forgoing the extra cash in hand that could have been had in a reverse merger because they are predicting that a conference that is weighed down by Wyoming, Hawaii, UNM, Nev, and whomever else will never be a realistic power conference. That is the long term thinking I'm talking about. You and I have no Idea the parameters of those discussion (I am privy to some of them but not in the athletics realm) but they are definitely having them.



This is the only other plausible alternative if you just say that non-competitive factors don't matter in this right?

I guess you can make this case...it sort of conflicts with a couple other stories we tell ourselves. We often hear that Football is the thing making this happen...Wyoming football has not "greatly underperformed" relative to that group...maybe BSU..but the rest? If you rank the non BSU conference defectors with Wyoming by wins over the last 10 years .... it goes:

SDSU - 68
Fresno - 65
Wyo - 60
USU - 55
CSU - 41

If you go back further...It's about the same....We aren't some abysmal program here.

MBB is the next largest sport that matters...Wyoming would be somewhere near the bottom of that list but not blown away.

My question is: How much more success would UW athletics have needed to have competitively to get invited? What if Football and basketball were unchanged but our swimming, wrestling, and track were really good? What if Wyoming had Fresno's level of Football success?

If they are under the delusion that they'll ever under any circumstance be considered a power conference, they should be fired and undergo psychiatric evaluation.

WYO has had an average football team with no championships. The coach who got average results is gone and is pretty clear the new guy isn't qualified. WYO has been near bottom of the barrel in every other sport. Look at the championship analysis in posts above. Sans UNLV, you can draw a line below the detectors and that's who was left.

We have a pretty terrible athletics dept in terms of performance within the MWC. Bball and football are most important. Hard to tell how much weight the other sports have. Apparently a mediocre football program, terrible bball, and nonexistent in other sports isn't enough. But, let's go ahead and blame tv sets, population, and other things that can't be held accountable.

 

[cowpoke pride]

Bottom line- It really sucks to be UTEP'ed. but, if history repeats itself, we will be reunited with probably most of the defectors around 2050 or so.

 

[307bball]

If they are under the delusion that they'll ever under any circumstance be considered a power conference, they should be fired and undergo psychiatric evaluation.

WYO has had an average football team with no championships. The coach who got average results is gone and is pretty clear the new guy isn't qualified. WYO has been near bottom of the barrel in every other sport. Look at the championship analysis in posts above. Sans UNLV, you can draw a line below the detectors and that's who was left.

We have a pretty terrible athletics dept in terms of performance within the MWC. Bball and football are most important. Hard to tell how much weight the other sports have. Apparently a mediocre football program, terrible bball, and nonexistent in other sports isn't enough. But, let's go ahead and blame tv sets, population, and other things that can't be held accountable.

Again...and I was careful to point this out, I am not privy to the particulars of their planning...but I guarantee they are planning over that longer time span. The $$ for the next 5 years is the starting point of what they are considering. Any conclusion about why they made the decisions they did, based primarily on a contract that only runs through 3031 is bound to be suspect. Any commentary on their psychiatric condition is outside the scope of what I'm talking about.

TV sets, population and other things that can't be held accountable, as you characterize them, are a given. All of them are firmly in the negative category by any measurement. We must have a strategy for success that incorporates that reality and does not deny it. Now, let's get back to an area that I think most of us are in agreement on. The pathway to mattering in college sports in 2025, for Wyoming, was to have had a much more competitive product than it has accomplished. Sadly..the long term planning that was done at UW back in the 90's allowed facility construction to become primary. That was an error. We are seeing the results now. I don't think they stopped caring about winning but that focus slipped in favor of building facilities and fundraising.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Again...and I was careful to point this out, I am not privy to the particulars of their planning...but I guarantee they are planning over that longer time span. The $$ for the next 5 years is the starting point of what they are considering. Any conclusion about why they made the decisions they did, based primarily on a contract that only runs through 3031 is bound to be suspect. Any commentary on their psychiatric condition is outside the scope of what I'm talking about.

TV sets, population and other things that can't be held accountable, as you characterize them, are a given. All of them are firmly in the negative category by any measurement. We must have a strategy for success that incorporates that reality and does not deny it. Now, let's get back to an area that I think most of us are in agreement on. The pathway to mattering in college sports in 2025, for Wyoming, was to have had a much more competitive product than it has accomplished. Sadly..the long term planning that was done at UW back in the 90's allowed facility construction to become primary. That was an error. We are seeing the results now. I don't think they stopped caring about winning but that focus slipped in favor of building facilities and fundraising.

If we had a strong athletic department that included a football team that gets ranked and wins a championship once in a while along with a really solid bball program, we would have to make a decision about joining the pac (sans unknown or nonpublic riffs in the MWC).

My tea leaves say osu and wsu wanted to remain in control so reverse merger was out. They also wanted to have, to the best of their ability, a conference that would be somewhat palatable to cal and stanford should the acc collapse. Either way, usu didn't get in because of some great market advantage. They are just a better run athletic department with better product.

Our product largely stinks, so there we are. On the bright side, we have a chance and environment to improve on it. On the dim side we have the same culture running the show...a culture that tends to regress to the bottom end of our level of competition.