P12 - MWC

[cowpoke pride]

A thought on Texas State and how desperate the pea12 has to be if that is the direction they need to go.

P4 D1 teams in Texas:

Texas
Texas A&M
Baylor
TCU
Houston
Texas Tech

D1 teams in Texas:
UTSA (AAC) $27 million exit fee
UNT (AAC) $27 million exit fee
Sam Houston (CUSA) $1.75 exit fee
UTEP (MWC) $18 million exit fee
Texas State (Sun Belt) $5 million exit fee

Not sure there is a delivery of anything that moves the media needle if Texas State is the cheapest get in desperation for the 8th team.

Texas State is the 7th largest enrollment university in Texas and despite winning 2 bowl games in a row, they are best known for being a successful baseball program. The media market is Austin with San Antonio nearby but we all know how much CSU is NOT competitive with CU and neon Deon for the Denver market and likewise AFA doesn’t turn the media world upside down in Colorado.

Also - if Texas State was only offered a 50% share it would take them at least 2 or more seasons to stop losing money even if the pee12 media deal is $10m per year.

As for travel, San Marcos to Atlanta is roughly the same distance as to the nearest pee12 program located in Fart Colons. San Marcos to Charleston SC is one of the furthest travel destinations in the Sun Belt at 18 hours drive time compared to OSU which is about 32 hours drive time or 56% of the distance to Oregon. Obviously the travel will be significantly more expensive as it means more hours flying time.

This is where I am speculating that the pea12 will be trying to drive down the total payment to the MWC as far below $100 million as possible to have as much extra cash as possible to recruit football member 8 to be at the minimum to be a conference.

"Fart Colons" never could get a hold of the Denver market, even before Deion.

 

[rocket city poke]

The schools that are getting these invites have big enrollment numbers. The conferences are hoping the team wins some and generates enthusiasm, eye balls and support from alumni. UVU just joined the Big West with Cal Baptist. UVU was a junior college 20 years ago. UVU might have been a good fit for the new MWC as a non-football member just given the tech dollars in Provo and all the alumni. Plus the basketball talent in Utah. and particularly where UVU is located and the LDS connection. THe biggest 6A schools in Utah are all that direction. You could find 10 kids every year within 5 miles of the UVU campus that will win 20 games no matter who the coach is. Then they have 47,000 students. That would have made them the largest school in the MWC I think.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

The schools that are getting these invites have big enrollment numbers. The conferences are hoping the team wins some and generates enthusiasm, eye balls and support from alumni. UVU just joined the Big West with Cal Baptist. UVU was a junior college 20 years ago. UVU might have been a good fit for the new MWC as a non-football member just given the tech dollars in Provo and all the alumni. Plus the basketball talent in Utah. and particularly where UVU is located and the LDS connection. THe biggest 6A schools in Utah are all that direction. You could find 10 kids every year within 5 miles of the UVU campus that will win 20 games no matter who the coach is. Then they have 47,000 students. That would have made them the largest school in the MWC I think.

On campus or total?

Isn't GCU something like 25k on-campus and 100k additional online for a total of 125k?

 

[PorkerPoke]

The schools that are getting these invites have big enrollment numbers. The conferences are hoping the team wins some and generates enthusiasm, eye balls and support from alumni. UVU just joined the Big West with Cal Baptist. UVU was a junior college 20 years ago. UVU might have been a good fit for the new MWC as a non-football member just given the tech dollars in Provo and all the alumni. Plus the basketball talent in Utah. and particularly where UVU is located and the LDS connection. THe biggest 6A schools in Utah are all that direction. You could find 10 kids every year within 5 miles of the UVU campus that will win 20 games no matter who the coach is. Then they have 47,000 students. That would have made them the largest school in the MWC I think.

Just drove through the area last week on vacation. It is being built up like crazy and in a beautiful mountain valley setting.

Unfortunately I drove right past the BwhYoU stadium as well. The area is massively populated and I would consider it to be the Utah front range comparison to Colorado.

I don’t ever see Laramie or anywhere in Wyoming growing like that.

 

[LanderPoke]

Just drove through the area last week on vacation. It is being built up like crazy and in a beautiful mountain valley setting.

Unfortunately I drove right past the BwhYoU stadium as well. The area is massively populated and I would consider it to be the Utah front range comparison to Colorado.

I don’t ever see Laramie or anywhere in Wyoming growing like that.

Thank goodness. There are a disgusting amount of people there now

 

[Brew_Poke]

Ditto.

Wyoming might very well find being in the FCS with the Montana’s the best fit for our facilities and relevancy if determined to be acceptable by the Big Sky.

The shift is seismic and the Wyoming strategy is how to survive when unable to do anything while at the mercy of everyone else.

Yep, and we'll probably be the bottom of the Big Sky

 

[Brew_Poke]

I understandably have a minority opinion on this but I have felt for years that UW could be more viable at the FCS level.

The schools in the Big Sky are relatively the same size. The Montana, South Dakota, and North Dakota schools compete for football championships. Wyoming residents would likely still support the university athletic programs. It would be more exciting to support a football team that has a chance to win it all. UW could still get pounded in big money games to help them financially.

A rivalry with a neighboring state school will be just as fun as the green ooze that lies south of the border.

Instead, they will be a member of a fledgling conference with no hope to compete for anything. The money from reported P-7 payouts will only help UW for a few years and most likely be diluted over time. I’m not certain how the NCAA lawsuit will affect the coffers, either? A lot of the money gained by the traitors’ departures may already be spent trying to comply with that lawsuit.

We'll get pounded by Northern Colorado, Eastern Washington, and fucking Greeley

 

[Brew_Poke]

I've followed Wyoming sports for 3 decades. I am not a fair-weather fan. I travel to see at least one or two games a year. Just about to make alumni donation (wife asked as I am writing this). If Wyoming moves to FCS, I will never travel to or watch another game. Wyoming will be irrelevant and I will close the door on that chapter. End of story.

Wyoming was horrible last year. But we are generally competitive in the Mountain West. Our problem is out of conference and away games. But we still managed to close out the season pretty well with a good game against Boise State and a win against Washington State. And attendance is about what Washington State musters.

I cannot stand FCS discussion. Nevarez got played so we should move down. Whatever.

Amen.

 

[Brew_Poke]

Moving to the FCS makes perfect sense. Particularly in men's basketball where our conference winning percentage during Burman's tenure is 37% with three winning seasons in conference play during the past 20 years. THat's not mediocre that's bad.

Why it won't / doesn't happen -- Burman wouldn't be making $500k a year to be the AD in the Big Sky, none of the associate AD's would be making their outrageous salaries, UW would have to cut sports like golf, women's tennis, track and field and assistant coaching jobs in football and basketball and those people all make good salaries as well. Additionally, UW sunk a lot of money into previous facilities including the AA, the new seating at War Memorial, this new pool. All of this infrastructure spending was designed to keep UW in the top tier of college athletics so now the administrators and coaches have to keep trying to piece together some type of "big time" conference to sell the legislature and BOT on to keep funding this calamity. It doesn't fool anybody with any real knowledge of college athletics, but it seems to work on the good old boys in the legislature and BOT.

What the fuck? FCS is a football classification. All FBS and FCS schools are Division one in basketball.

 

[Brew_Poke]

Totally hear the frustration... None of this was earned on the field. But the reality is, these moves aren’t about football or basketball success anymore. CSU gives the Pac-12 a way back into the Denver market, which they lost when CU left. That matters when you’re trying to show media partners you still have reach.

Comparing UW and CSU from a pure business lens isn’t even close. CSU has a bigger enrollment, just poured $200M+ into a new stadium, and sits in a more accessible location with better recruiting potential. Plus, it checks the boxes for research output and academic fit, which university presidents actually care about.

It’s definitely not about who’s actually winning games right now, nor is about anything that made college athletics special. But it’s the same playbook that’s been driving realignment for years... markets, money, and perceived prestige. And that’s why programs like UW are either on the outside or barely hanging on, while a team like CSU gets the nod. Doesn’t mean it’s the right, college athletics is no longer about the passion.

The only thing it's about is who makes tv executives the most money, and that's a fact

 

[PorkerPoke]

The only thing it's about is who makes tv executives the most money, and that's a fact

Let’s say we are at the media table with Texas State competing for an invite to a higher valued media contract what are our selling points?

1. We played in the 1967 Sugar Bowl
2. We played in the 1976 Fiesta Bowl
3. We have won more Sun Bowl games in the 1950’s than most other participants
4. We have an enrollment of over 10,000
5. We promise to advertise adult diabetes commercials
6. We have less than 200 commercial airline seats flying into Wyoming daily (not counting Jackson)
7. We are only 120 miles away from Denver and about 500 or more miles in any direction from a metro area
8. The state is the most populated it’s ever been at around 600,000 or so spread out across a large geographic area
9. We are in the next 5 of the remaining MWC membership in value after unlv and AFA.
10. We have a lot of wind

I probably missed on a lot of valuable things that would make us a hard media target to dismiss.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

The only thing it's about is who makes tv executives the most money, and that's a fact

Do you know how they calculate it?

At the G5 level there's little if any difference in ratings other than time and network. Team(s) don't appear to drive ratings.

I agree with you. Just wondering if you had a better understanding?

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Let’s say we are at the media table with Texas State competing for an invite to a higher valued media contract what are our selling points?

1. We played in the 1967 Sugar Bowl
2. We played in the 1976 Fiesta Bowl
3. We have won more Sun Bowl games in the 1950’s than most other participants
4. We have an enrollment of over 10,000
5. We promise to advertise adult diabetes commercials
6. We have less than 200 commercial airline seats flying into Wyoming daily (not counting Jackson)
7. We are only 120 miles away from Denver and about 500 or more miles in any direction from a metro area
8. The state is the most populated it’s ever been at around 600,000 or so spread out across a large geographic area
9. We are in the next 5 of the remaining MWC membership in value after unlv and AFA.
10. We have a lot of wind

I probably missed on a lot of valuable things that would make us a hard media target to dismiss.

Or, it doesn't matter who you put in the timeslot from the g5 level?

 

[307bball]

Do you know how they calculate it?

At the G5 level there's little if any difference in ratings other than time and network. Team(s) don't appear to drive ratings.

I agree with you. Just wondering if you had a better understanding?

so......if i'm reading between the lines, all G5 media deals should be the same for all teams?

 

[TheRealUW]

Do you know how they calculate it?

At the G5 level there's little if any difference in ratings other than time and network. Team(s) don't appear to drive ratings.

I agree with you. Just wondering if you had a better understanding?

I'm not sure you will ever be able to get an exact answer to your questions about how media valuations for college football teams work. My guess is that each network has their own proprietary algorithms that they use to determine the final number.

What goes into those algorithms? That anybody's guess, but it has to include things that advertisers care about because that is how the networks make their profit. While the number of eyeballs on the team/game is probably part of it, advertisers also probably care about the age of who is watching, how much disposable income they have, how often they interact with digital media/devices, average education level, number of viewers with Amazon accounts/how often they place an Amazon order, and the list can go on and on and on and on.

Whatever the advertisers care about, that's also what the networks are going to care about.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

so......if i'm reading between the lines, all G5 media deals should be the same for all teams?

I understand there are differences but I don't know why? If it's TV market, then that should be reflected in ratings.

I'm not sure you will ever be able to get an exact answer to your questions about how media valuations for college football teams work. My guess is that each network has their own proprietary algorithms that they use to determine the final number.

What goes into those algorithms? That anybody's guess, but it has to include things that advertisers care about because that is how the networks make their profit. While the number of eyeballs on the team/game is probably part of it, advertisers also probably care about the age of who is watching, how much disposable income they have, how often they interact with digital media/devices, average education level, number of viewers with Amazon accounts/how often they place an Amazon order, and the list can go on and on and on and on.

Whatever the advertisers care about, that's also what the networks are going to care about.

I think you're right. Simply saying we have a small population and thus no value is grossly understating the complexities. This study puts the value of our football program well above many of the "more desireable" programs. https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/college-football-ohio-state-revenue-value-5510e348

We can't fix population but do we have other branding issues or???

 

[307bball]

I understand there are differences but I don't know why? If it's TV market, then that should be reflected in ratings.


I think you're right. Simply saying we have a small population and thus no value is grossly understating the complexities. This study puts the value of our football program well above many of the "more desireable" programs. https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/college-football-ohio-state-revenue-value-5510e348

We can't fix population but do we have other branding issues or???

I would say yes...but the magnitude of the difference between whatever our branding is now vs what it can possibly be might not move the needle much.

When it gets right down to it...you are worth what somebody is willing to pay. For Wyoming athletics...that has been a rough pill to swallow to see just how little we are valued outside of our borders. I hope we have an amazing branding strategy...but without a big following and competitive results, it's all sizzle and no steak.

 

[TheRealUW]

I understand there are differences but I don't know why? If it's TV market, then that should be reflected in ratings.


I think you're right. Simply saying we have a small population and thus no value is grossly understating the complexities. This study puts the value of our football program well above many of the "more desireable" programs. https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/college-football-ohio-state-revenue-value-5510e348

We can't fix population but do we have other branding issues or???

Wyoming athletics is definitely not a national brand. Outside of winning, and winning repeatedly on the big stage, I don't think this can be fixed.

I've lived all over the country. Oregon, Kentucky, Florida, Massachusetts, Texas...very few people in those areas even know that Wyoming is an FBS school, and they certainly wouldn't ever purposefully put on a Wyoming football game regardless of the channel it was being aired on. To go a little further, a lot of people out east aren't even familiar with the MWC. If they know anything at all about the MWC, it's usually that it is the conference that Boise State is in.

Boise State consistently getting into Fiesta Bowl, and winning all three times, changed their brand forever. Can Wyoming ever do something like that now in the NIL era...I'm not sure it is even possible.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

I would say yes...but the magnitude of the difference between whatever our branding is now vs what it can possibly be might not move the needle much.

When it gets right down to it...you are worth what somebody is willing to pay. For Wyoming athletics...that has been a rough pill to swallow to see just how little we are valued outside of our borders. I hope we have an amazing branding strategy...but without a big following and competitive results, it's all sizzle and no steak.

The linked study is the only thing I've seen that tries to estimate value. We do better than many.

Our TV ratings are on par with G5. Our football program valuation is in top 3rd of MWC. Our home football attendance is probably top half g5. I can't find anything tangible other than low pop and few students but can't figure out how that impacts market?

 

[307bball]

The linked study is the only thing I've seen that tries to estimate value. We do better than many.

Our TV ratings are on par with G5. Our football program valuation is in top 3rd of MWC. Our home football attendance is probably top half g5. I can't find anything tangible other than low pop and few students but can't figure out how that impacts market?

Wyoming's marketing department can (and I hope do) point those things out when they are in negotiations with media partners. what comes out the other end of those negotiations is a number......When it comes to Wyoming, that number is peanuts. We can interrogate that number somewhat...maybe they are mis-evaluating us? If that is the case, then the market should correct it. Unfortunately, this low opinion of Wyoming's media value and value as a conference partner has persisted for a long time and through a few cycles of negotiations.

I don't think anybody posting here is going to be able to answer your pointed questions on this issue. Home football attendance and football program valuation sure has done very little to make us matter in any of the discussion around conference realignment....that's for sure. Whatever people are looking at, Wyoming doesn't have it or they think Wyoming doesn't have it....that's all I know.