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Our first 8 games-Predictions?

JimmyDimes said:
I love it when our fans look at the glass half empty...to each his own. While we were close to being a 2 win team, we were also close to winning a couple more. All this while starting the most true freshman of any team in the FBS. I'm not sure about anyone else, but I saw progression during the season, especially from our true freshman QB ACS. If anyone thinks he wasn't a much improved QB from his first start at FAU to the New Mexico Bowl wasn't watching.

I'd go with 7-5 or 8-4, but wouldn't be suprised to see us finish one game off in either direction. I like what DC is building and am on board. This ship is only getting better.

Go Pokes!!
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I'm not trying to be a downer. I'm just trying to be realistic. You have to take starting the most true freshman with a grain of salt. While Christensesn's first recruiting class was an improvement over years past, especially in the area of speed/athleticism, it was not as good as at least 3-4 other teams in the conference. What allowed so many of them to start was our poor recruiting during the Glenn era and the fact that we went to a completely different offensive scheme that the upper classmen really didn't fit. I'm not saying they don't have bright futures at UW, but you have to look at the way things really are. If you think starting the most true freshman last year meant we had the best freshman class in the nation, or even in the confernce, I'd have to question your reasoning. For example, look at Afam Muojeke, who was the MWC freshman of the year in his first season. That dude wasn't the best freshman in the conference. He just had the oppurtunity to play sooner because of our lack of depth.

I do agree that we saw improvement as we went through the season and I'm cautiously optimistic about this season because of one player...ACS. If that kid becomes as good as I think he will be, UW football has a lot to look forward to. While I do expect us to be improved this season, the schedule sets up a bit tougher than last year. Thus, another 6-6 finish would be an improvement and even a 5-7 finish is arguably an improvement if we compete with the top teams a little better. The MWC is a tough conference and to finish in the top 3 is going to take having a top 25 program. Do I think we are headed in that direction? Yes! Do I think we are there this year? No.

Bottom Line: While I agree with you that this ship is headed in the right direction, I think many are overestimating the speed of that ship. :)
 
JimmyDimes said:
I love it when our fans look at the glass half empty...to each his own. While we were close to being a 2 win team, we were also close to winning a couple more. All this while starting the most true freshman of any team in the FBS. I'm not sure about anyone else, but I saw progression during the season, especially from our true freshman QB ACS. If anyone thinks he wasn't a much improved QB from his first start at FAU to the New Mexico Bowl wasn't watching.

I'd go with 7-5 or 8-4, but wouldn't be suprised to see us finish one game off in either direction. I like what DC is building and am on board. This ship is only getting better.

Go Pokes!!
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I hate the fans who only see the negatives as well, but I mean realistically come on. Anything above 6-6 is a pretty "optimistic" prediction.

We were still outscored by 117 points last year, even though we finished 7-6.

I love the direction the program is headed as well, I just want to see more improvement in games.
 
WestWYOPoke said:
Just my 2 cents:

Southern Utah - W - Good game to shake the rust off.
@ Texas - L - Hopefully the Texas hospitality will carry over to the field.
Boise State - L - A hard-fought battle that will be closer than many would think.
Air Force - W - A toss-up, if we aren't too beat up after UT and BSU we can definately win this one.
@ Toledo - W - TRAP GAME!!! Coming off 3 BIG games, the 'boys are gonna have to be careful here.
@TCU - L - TCU on the road...enough said.
Utah - W - This is my gamble game, should we win? No. Can we win? Hell yeah!
@ BYU - L - As long as I have been waiting for a year to beat BYU we aren't quite there...yet.
SDSU - W - Hopefully not as close as last year's game.
@ New Mexico - W - New Mexico...enough said.
@ UNLV - W - Recent history we've play better at Vegas than in Laramie
CSU - W - Boots going nowhere.


YOu have a better chance of beating Ybu than you do Utah. The Zoo is breaking in a new QB, RB, TE, WR, and half of their O Line. If you can beat their D, you'll get the win.
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If you take away the blowout losses to TCU, Texas and BYU last year, we weren't outscored on. That pretty much evens up the scoring.
Yeah, last year we weren't as dominate on D as we've been in the past. but, we weren't bad either. We were more of a "Bend but don't Break" type D last year. And look for it to be better this year. If you remember half way through the year we began to transition to the 4-3 from the 3-4. That makes a difference. Besides we started to see more success with the 4-3 later in the year. Seriously, in 6 of our last 8 games( including the bowl game) we started to transition to 4-3 during the UNM games last year. If you take out the TCU and BYU game we only gave up 334 ypg. That's slowing down Utah's supposed high flying Offense to only 363 yards, Air Force to only 269 yards (their second lowest output of the season). Fresno st had only 366 yards. (Their second lowest output of the season as well.)
Wyoming lead the Utah game all game long till midway through the fourth quarter. Wyoming always plays AFA close and AFA didn't pull away till the end of the game as well. Wyoming has these two teams numbers. Plus, we have them both in Laramie. BYU has none returning that I'm concerned about. And the only way BYu beats us, is home field advantage. i can see this Wyoming team beat these three teams.
The reason. these players truly believe. they believe in their coaches, they believe that what they are learning works. And they are starting to believe in themselves. The confidence is rising.
DC has what it takes to turn this program around fast. We were supposed to be last in the MWC standings last year, but we weren't. We were supposed to only win 2 or 3 games last year, but we won more. They weren't supposed to even talk about a bowl, but they made it. And then they weren't supposed to win, but they did.
Watch this program rise and enjoy. They are much more improved than you think they are.
 
calpoke25 said:
We were still outscored by 117 points last year, even though we finished 7-6.
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That is an interesting point you brought up. We were outscored by 117 points.

2009

If the offense scores one more TD and our defense keeps the opponent from scoring one touch down a game, we jump to 8-4. (14 point differential per game)

Code: 
Team            W/L    Adjusted	W/L
Weber           W 	29-22	36-15	W 
Texas           L 	10-41	17-34	L *
Colorado        L 	0-24     7-17	L
UNLV            W 	30-27	37-20	W
FAU             W 	30-28	37-21	W
New Mexico      W 	37-13	44-6 	W
Air Force       L 	0-10    7-3     W
Utah            L 	10-22	17-15	W
BYU             L 	0-52     7-45	L *
SDSU	         W 	30-27	37-20	W
TCU             L 	10-45	17-38	L *
CSU             W 	17-16	24-9    W
	          6-6	203-327	286-243	8-4
* These teams backed off when they scored a sufficient amount, I don't know how that really affects the adjusted score.

In order to get the 2009 season to a 9-3 record, we have to score or defend an additional 28 points per game (539-327 9-3) and we have losses at the Texas, BYU and TCU games.

35 additional points per game, we tie the TCU game up and still loose to BYU. I'm not convinced that we could beat TCU without at least a 42 point differential.

Finally, it takes a 56 point differential to go undefeated. The scoreboard looks awesome:
(points are added to wyo, not subtracted from the opponent)
Code: 
Team        Wyo Opp	W/L
Weber        85	22	W
Texas        66	41	W
Colorado     56	24	W
UNLV         86	27	W
FAU          86	28	W
UNM          93	13	W
Air Force    56	10	W
Utah         66	22	W
BYU          56	52	W
SDSU         86	27	W
TCU          66	45	W
CSU          73	16	W
	        875	327
2010
In order to move up to the next level in the conference, we need to be able to score or defend 14-21additional points over the 2009 season.
28-35 points puts us in the 9-3 range.
42-56 points to get in the top two or win the conference.
 
big z said:
YOu have a better chance of beating Ybu than you do Utah. The Zoo is breaking in a new QB, RB, TE, WR, and half of their O Line. If you can beat their D, you'll get the win.
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I agree that Utah will be the stronger team next year. However, given our history of playing in provo and playing in Laramie, I am more confident that the Pokes could pull off the upset over the Utes at home as opposed to winning in provo. Personal preference, if I could pick only one of these games to win I would pick us beating byu every time.
 
kansasCowboy said:
If you take away the blowout losses to TCU, Texas and BYU last year, we weren't outscored on. That pretty much evens up the scoring.
Yeah, last year we weren't as dominate on D as we've been in the past. but, we weren't bad either. We were more of a "Bend but don't Break" type D last year. And look for it to be better this year. If you remember half way through the year we began to transition to the 4-3 from the 3-4. That makes a difference. Besides we started to see more success with the 4-3 later in the year. Seriously, in 6 of our last 8 games( including the bowl game) we started to transition to 4-3 during the UNM games last year. If you take out the TCU and BYU game we only gave up 334 ypg. That's slowing down Utah's supposed high flying Offense to only 363 yards, Air Force to only 269 yards (their second lowest output of the season). Fresno st had only 366 yards. (Their second lowest output of the season as well.)
Wyoming lead the Utah game all game long till midway through the fourth quarter. Wyoming always plays AFA close and AFA didn't pull away till the end of the game as well. Wyoming has these two teams numbers. Plus, we have them both in Laramie. BYU has none returning that I'm concerned about. And the only way BYu beats us, is home field advantage. i can see this Wyoming team beat these three teams.
The reason. these players truly believe. they believe in their coaches, they believe that what they are learning works. And they are starting to believe in themselves. The confidence is rising.
DC has what it takes to turn this program around fast. We were supposed to be last in the MWC standings last year, but we weren't. We were supposed to only win 2 or 3 games last year, but we won more. They weren't supposed to even talk about a bowl, but they made it. And then they weren't supposed to win, but they did.
Watch this program rise and enjoy. They are much more improved than you think they are.
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I'm sorry but this just doesn't make sense. You could say the same thing for almost every team in the country, "Well if you take out their top 3-4 blowout losses they actually look pretty good....." The point or reality is that they got blew out big time several times. Really good teams don't get blown out more than once.

You're not concerned about BYU? The only reason they could beat us is because of home-field advantage? I hate it just as much as the next Wyo fan, but BYU hasn't exactly had a hard time beating us over the past 20 years, regardless of who is playing or where the game is played. Until that changes, I find it a little ridiculous to say none of their players concern you or that they could only beat us because of home-field advantage...

Again, I like the direction of the program, am excited, and hope for the best, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.
 
I think we'll beat TCU again before we beat BYU. We beat TCU a few years ago when they looked terrible in Laramie. I think our room for improvement is greater than Utah's and we gave them a good one last year. If we get a few bounces, I think we win by 3 or 6. There's no reason why we can't beat Airforce. Unlike BYU, there is no one on Airforce that should scare us. It's the system that continually produces close games. Best case scenario is 3rd in MWC (4th is more realistic) and that's if we don't fall flat against one of the truly terrible teams like UNLV or New Mexicos. I think our offense improves by 7 points a game but I don't see our defense improving quite as much. The D line is questionable but I think they improve on the blowouts since the secondary should be solid. But I can't quite see enough to stop the Harvey Ungas from turning out 6 yards a carry.
 
Overall for last season, we were outscored in every quarter except the 4th quarter and not just by a little bit either. For example, we were outscored 110 to 30 in the 3rd quarter. We need to play all 4 quarters. This tells me our conditioning was very good, but we need to win more than just one quarter.
 
Sorry. But, it does make sense. Wyoming played four teams with top ranked offensive production. Texas #11, BYU#20, TCU#8 and Fresno St#17. All but Fresno st. had success against us. That's right, 1-3 vs top 25 offenses. And if you would like to compare our outcome to the rest of the MWC vs to 25 offensive teams. Wyoming did pretty good.
AFA: 1-2 (BYU L, TCU L, Houston W)
BYU: 1-2 (OU W, Fla st. L, TCU L)
CSU: 0-4 (Nev L, BYU L, Idaho L, TCU L)
UNM: 0-4 (A&M L, TTU L, BYU L, TCU L)
SDS: 0-3 (Idaho L, BYU L, TCU L)
TCU: 1-1 (BYU W, Boise L)
UNLV: 1-3 (Haw W, Nev L, TCU L, BYU L)
Utah: 0-2 (TCU L, BYU L)
Wyo: 1-3 (Texas L, TCU L, BYU L, Fresno W)

Who concerns you on BYU's roster? Or is it just the mere mention of BYU that concerns you? Max Hall? Gone! Harvey Unga? Gone! Dennis Pitta? Gone! Jan Jorgensen? Gone!
Who returns? JJ Diluigi? Seems like one of two possible threats to me. Last year against us he rushed 7-30-0 he caught 5-94-1. Only other threat, Mckay Jacobson. Caught 3-100-1 against us. Those are the only two that return that had a good game against us. Oh! Forgot about Riley Nelson 10 carries for 71 yards and a TD. but he probably won't play in front of Jake Heaps. Jake Heaps. Are we concerned about a freshman QB? Well, if we are I could possibly see him throw for 20 td's but probably 15 or so int's as well. He' was the #2 QB in the class, which is good. but here's the numbers from last years # 1 QB freshman, 211-352-2735-15-14. That was Matt Barkley at USC. How about the #1 QB from 09 and his freshman season. 100-165-1311-12-4. Good numbers, but, not game breaking. that would be Terrelle Pryor. I don't know, maybe he'll be the next Kellen Moore QB (BSU) and throw for 3,400 yards 25 tds' and 10 int's his freshman year. He might, but I doubt it. BYU's returning defense? 5 returning starters, but only two play makers coming back in Andrew Rich (4 int's) and Brian Logan ( 14 PBU and 3 int's)
I see BYU being a program that needs to rebuild, they can't just regroup like a Texas or Florida can.
 
It's time to stop laying on our backs and pissing on ourselves when it comes to BYU. The last few years have no bearing on the upcoming game. If this program is headed in the right direction, we (both players and fans) shouldn't worry about who we play...we just need a "kick some ass" mentality.
 
I dont understand whatever metric you're trying to create to make us look good, but even by your own measurements we weren't that good. Its not just that we were dominated by the elite teams, but we also allowed 28 points to teams like UNLV, FAU, SDSU, CU etc. Since our turnover margin did improve drastically (a very good thing) it also means that those points came because our defense wasn't that great, not because they were cheap giveaways like in 2008.

Unfortunately, yes just the mere name of BYU has made our program piss itself in the past 20 years. You don't need to spend 300 words breaking down their players, the bottom line is they have owned us and its embarrassing. I hate it, you hate, we all hate it, but there is absolutely nothing positive you can spin about that until we actually turn it around on the field. They have outscored us 96-0 over the past 2 years and something like 400-50 over the past 7 years. Excuse me for wanting at least a touchdown against them before I declare that this team has arrived.

I do think that past performances have to some degree an influence on current results. It creates an atmosphere around certain games that I believe does have some influence on players, coaches and fans mindsets. Example us against BYU. Another example, SDSU in Laramie. They have no problem winning in Ft. Collins, but they cannot for the life of them win in Laramie, no matter how bad we are. Throughout the sports world there are situations where a proverbial mental hump exists in certain situations because of past events that prevents teams from playing up to their normal capability. All games don't happen in an isolated vacuum, where the past means nothing. The past exists and is real. Like the Chicago Cubs in the playoffs. Sometimes teams get over that hump, hopefully we will soon with BYU.
 
We shouldn't fear a BYU freshman QB? We're the ones basically sucking off our sophomore QB after his decent freshman campaign. I want to beat BYU badly, but BYU more than any other team in the MWC has clones of every player that graduates the program. That's why they have owned us for so long. Why else would every QB they have had carve up our team? I can see BYU having a slight down year, but what is that? 4 losses? We have wet dreams about 4 loss seasons! A slight down year doesn't help us overcome the 52-0 beat down at our house! I say we give them a better game, but it will probably be at least 3 years with DC to beat the regime that's been installed at BYU.

I would love to be wrong about everything and I hope that I am. To tell you the truth, I have more faith in beating BSU and Texas than I do BYU. Let's get realistic though, we will be better on defense and definitely be putting up more points. Is that enough to to take the conference? (those that say we can beat BYU do) No. Tough schedule probably puts at an identical record or slightly better. There's always the step back too. You just never know.
 
BYU has been consistent for the last 10-20 years. They have a solid offense and defense. We have had our ups and downs during the same time. We haven't fielded a defense that can stop them the last couple of years and we haven't put any points up. They had two weeks to prepare for us last year after getting whipped by TCU, and I don't think they minded running the score up either.

Last year, i think 4 items got us to the bowl game: turnover margin, physical fitness, field goals, and new strategy. At least 3 of those were greatly improved over 2008. That wasn't enough to hang with BYU or TCU though.

I don't know what to think of this season. Tough schedule, key players injured in spring ball, and my inability to predict the future. I don't know what we are adding to the list of improvements this yet. My guess is:

- We have a couple of new WR's. The passing game should improve with more speed and variety.
- Offensive line has some new guys. That should give ACS some more protection.
- RB - we lost one, but it sounds like we have a good one showing up this fall. Gives us a couple of options at RB.
- Switching over to the 4-3 on defense.
- Faster players, and much more strength conditioning.
- The team in general knows what it is like to be down in the third quarter and win it in the 4th.

I can't wait for September 4th!!!!
 
5-6 going into the CSU game. Both CSU and Wyoming will each be 5-6 going in to the Border War. I feel bad for Wyoming having to play Utah, TCU, and BYU in consecutive weeks. CSU did that last year and it was painful watching those games 3 weeks in a row.

Southern Utah - W
@ Texas - L
Boise State - L
Air Force -L
@ Toledo - W
@TCU - L
Utah - L
@ BYU - L
SDSU - W
@ New Mexico - W
@ UNLV - W
CSU - Toss up
 
JimmyDimes said:
It's time to stop laying on our backs and pissing on ourselves when it comes to BYU. The last few years have no bearing on the upcoming game. If this program is headed in the right direction, we (both players and fans) shouldn't worry about who we play...we just need a "kick some ass" mentality.
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Well said. :thumb:
 
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