OOC Looms Large

[ragtimejoe1]

In bowl eligible years, Craig Bohl has relied heavily on weak OOC schedules with no less than 2 wins and in some cases 4 wins against weak ooc opponents to maintain bohl eligibility.

This year is different with 2 almost guaranteed losses and I think at least 1 toss up game. App State game is huge. Can Bohl get to a bowl without 2 or more OOC wins? History says no.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

I think you are drastically underestimating the potential of this defense. Texas Tech is very much a winnable game IMO. TTU has an o/u for 5.5 wins.

And your history might be a bit inaccurate. In 2016, Wyoming beat Northern Illinois in OT and then lost to both Eastern Michigan (yuck) and Nebraska (we got smoked). After that, it was a good run through the conference schedule until the UNLV shootout and the New Mexico debacle.

Note: In that year, the only MWC team that finished in the top 6 in the MWC standings that Wyoming didn't beat was New Mexico.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

We'll see who is right on Tech. 1-3 OOC is a real possibility. Lmao at 1 year out of 10 that was also 7 years ago. Last year is somewhat of an argument because he only needed 1 ooc win to be bowl eligible. Maybe 1 will be enough this year? MOST of the time, Bohl needs 2 wins against crap opponents to get to bowl eligibility. That's called a historical trend. You're example is called a historical outlier.

 

[doreno5]

Texas and App. State are really good programs in their respective levels (Power 5 v. Group of 5). Texas Tech is middling Power 5 program but Wyoming is not a powerhouse in the Group of 5 so they are likely a step up in competition from the MWC teams we play. 1-3 OOC is more than just possible, It is far more likely than 3-1 OCC or 6-2 MWC this year.

 

[LanderPoke]

I expect 6 wins.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

I expect 6 wins.

Craig Boil has 3 years total that he has 5 wins or more in conference. 2 of those years were with Josh Allen.

I don't necessarily think you're wrong but I think the hurdle is a bit higher this year because of the potential ooc record. If it's 1-3, I don't know. I'm guessing 5-6 wins with more money on 5. If ooc is 2-2 or better, then I'm thinking 6-8 wins with money on 6.

 

[LanderPoke]

I expect 6 wins.

Craig Boil has 3 years total that he has 5 wins or more in conference. 2 of those years were with Josh Allen.

I don't necessarily think you're wrong but I think the hurdle is a bit higher this year because of the potential ooc record. If it's 1-3, I don't know. I'm guessing 5-6 wins with more money on 5. If ooc is 2-2 or better, then I'm thinking 6-8 wins with money on 6.

It's going to be tough.

I think this year's team is probably the best in three or four years (the defense will be nasty), but the schedule is tough. If we had our usual weak OOC schedule I think 8 wins would be my expectation.

 

[laxwyo]

There's no reason this team can't go 6-2 in conference. D should be nasty and if we get that bump in Offense, who knows. If I'm expecting 6-2 in conference, then I should expect 2-2 non conf at a minimum. We're winning 8 or 5.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

There's no reason this team can't go 6-2 in conference. D should be nasty and if we get that bump in Offense, who knows. If I'm expecting 6-2 in conference, then I should expect 2-2 non conf at a minimum. We're winning 8 or 5.

I used to get pretty optimistic, but after 10 years and still no hint of an offense, I think the pattern is pretty well set. Like I said, Bohl has 1 season out of 7 that he has even been 5 wins or more in conference without Josh Allen (we clearly do not have Josh Allen this year, so the comparison timeframe is valid).

Odds are that we'll be 4 conference wins and I think that is probably where it ends up. To get 6 conference wins, this either ties Boh'ls best team (2016) or this is a much weaker than normal MWC. I could possibly be convinced of the latter, but not the former.

Unless the QB position really steps up (I think we've seen what Peas is), then I doubt the offense is even marginally better.

To me, this season looks a lot like the 2018 season but instead of NMSU, we have App State. 23rd ranked defense, 125th ranked offense, 2 P5 opponents, and a marginal MWC. We were 6-6 that year.

 

[307bball]

There's no reason this team can't go 6-2 in conference. D should be nasty and if we get that bump in Offense, who knows. If I'm expecting 6-2 in conference, then I should expect 2-2 non conf at a minimum. We're winning 8 or 5.

I used to get pretty optimistic, but after 10 years and still no hint of an offense, I think the pattern is pretty well set. Like I said, Bohl has 1 season out of 7 that he has even been 5 wins or more in conference without Josh Allen (we clearly do not have Josh Allen this year, so the comparison timeframe is valid).

Odds are that we'll be 4 conference wins and I think that is probably where it ends up. To get 6 conference wins, this either ties Boh'ls best team (2016) or this is a much weaker than normal MWC. I could possibly be convinced of the latter, but not the former.

Unless the QB position really steps up (I think we've seen what Peas is), then I doubt the offense is even marginally better.

To me, this season looks a lot like the 2018 season but instead of NMSU, we have App State. 23rd ranked defense, 125th ranked offense, 2 P5 opponents, and a marginal MWC. We were 6-6 that year.

Ragtime...hypothetical question here.

What should we think about a 6 win conference season if it happens? would it be as good of an accomplishment by Bohl as the 2016 campaign? Or do you downgrade it since the conference isn't predicted to be as good?

 

[ragtimejoe1]

I used to get pretty optimistic, but after 10 years and still no hint of an offense, I think the pattern is pretty well set. Like I said, Bohl has 1 season out of 7 that he has even been 5 wins or more in conference without Josh Allen (we clearly do not have Josh Allen this year, so the comparison timeframe is valid).

Odds are that we'll be 4 conference wins and I think that is probably where it ends up. To get 6 conference wins, this either ties Boh'ls best team (2016) or this is a much weaker than normal MWC. I could possibly be convinced of the latter, but not the former.

Unless the QB position really steps up (I think we've seen what Peas is), then I doubt the offense is even marginally better.

To me, this season looks a lot like the 2018 season but instead of NMSU, we have App State. 23rd ranked defense, 125th ranked offense, 2 P5 opponents, and a marginal MWC. We were 6-6 that year.

Ragtime...hypothetical question here.

What should we think about a 6 win conference season if it happens? would it be as good of an accomplishment by Bohl as the 2016 campaign? Or do you downgrade it since the conference isn't predicted to be as good?

I'd think it's a 2nd to 4th place in the MWC year and likely bowl matchup against non-P5 opponent. Probably not a mwc championship.

 

[307bball]

Ragtime...hypothetical question here.

What should we think about a 6 win conference season if it happens? would it be as good of an accomplishment by Bohl as the 2016 campaign? Or do you downgrade it since the conference isn't predicted to be as good?

I'd think it's a 2nd to 4th place in the MWC year and likely bowl matchup against non-P5 opponent. Probably not a mwc championship.

The Mountain Division representative in the conference championship game has had 6 wins two times...once in 2016 and once in 2021. Otherwise it takes 7 or 8 conference wins to appear in the title game, so I agree that would be the most probable finish in the standings (in our division)....but i'm asking how to rate the job done by Bohl relative to his other 6 win conference season.

If we get to 6 wins does that mean that BSU and AFA are down? or that the lower half is really down? What does it mean that the conference is worse? In 2016 (the other 6 win conference season), Wyoming, BSU and UNM all had 6 wins...that seems like a down year as well...although...it's all relative to a 10+ year run of a pretty mediocre MWC.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

I'd think it's a 2nd to 4th place in the MWC year and likely bowl matchup against non-P5 opponent. Probably not a mwc championship.

The Mountain Division representative in the conference championship game has had 6 wins two times...once in 2016 and once in 2021. Otherwise it takes 7 or 8 conference wins to appear in the title game, so I agree that would be the most probable finish in the standings (in our division)....but i'm asking how to rate the job done by Bohl relative to his other 6 win conference season.

If we get to 6 wins does that mean that BSU and AFA are down? or that the lower half is really down? What does it mean that the conference is worse? In 2016 (the other 6 win conference season), Wyoming, BSU and UNM all had 6 wins...that seems like a down year as well...although...it's all relative to a 10+ year run of a pretty mediocre MWC.

There are no divisions for the upcoming season. Wyoming’s success or lack thereof doesn’t really necessarily mean anything for AF or BSU.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

I'd think it's a 2nd to 4th place in the MWC year and likely bowl matchup against non-P5 opponent. Probably not a mwc championship.

The Mountain Division representative in the conference championship game has had 6 wins two times...once in 2016 and once in 2021. Otherwise it takes 7 or 8 conference wins to appear in the title game, so I agree that would be the most probable finish in the standings (in our division)....but i'm asking how to rate the job done by Bohl relative to his other 6 win conference season.

If we get to 6 wins does that mean that BSU and AFA are down? or that the lower half is really down? What does it mean that the conference is worse? In 2016 (the other 6 win conference season), Wyoming, BSU and UNM all had 6 wins...that seems like a down year as well...although...it's all relative to a 10+ year run of a pretty mediocre MWC.

Meh, as bad as the MWC is and has been during Bohl's tenure, it'll likely be splitting hairs. We'll have to see how bad this year is.

 

[307bball]

The Mountain Division representative in the conference championship game has had 6 wins two times...once in 2016 and once in 2021. Otherwise it takes 7 or 8 conference wins to appear in the title game, so I agree that would be the most probable finish in the standings (in our division)....but i'm asking how to rate the job done by Bohl relative to his other 6 win conference season.

If we get to 6 wins does that mean that BSU and AFA are down? or that the lower half is really down? What does it mean that the conference is worse? In 2016 (the other 6 win conference season), Wyoming, BSU and UNM all had 6 wins...that seems like a down year as well...although...it's all relative to a 10+ year run of a pretty mediocre MWC.

There are no divisions for the upcoming season. Wyoming’s success or lack thereof doesn’t really necessarily mean anything for AF or BSU.

I wasn't clear ....i'm looking backwards at when the MWC did have divisions... in general, 6 wins has gotten an MWC team a tie for second or so, in the division format, with an outside shot at playing in the title game. Now with no divisions...the odds of playing for a chip at 6 conference wins is pretty much nonexistent I would think. I'm mostly asking about Ragtime's claim that if Wyoming gets to 6 conference victories, that would mean the MWC is weak. My sense is that the conference as it is constituted is pretty stable in overall strength of programs. The reason I picked BSU and AFA is because they have been consistently our strongest divisional rivals. If they are not as strong it is easier to get to six or more wins....I don't think that if the lower end gets even worse it helps us all that much....we typically finish above that threshold already.

 

[307bball]

The Mountain Division representative in the conference championship game has had 6 wins two times...once in 2016 and once in 2021. Otherwise it takes 7 or 8 conference wins to appear in the title game, so I agree that would be the most probable finish in the standings (in our division)....but i'm asking how to rate the job done by Bohl relative to his other 6 win conference season.

If we get to 6 wins does that mean that BSU and AFA are down? or that the lower half is really down? What does it mean that the conference is worse? In 2016 (the other 6 win conference season), Wyoming, BSU and UNM all had 6 wins...that seems like a down year as well...although...it's all relative to a 10+ year run of a pretty mediocre MWC.

Meh, as bad as the MWC is and has been during Bohl's tenure, it'll likely be splitting hairs. We'll have to see how bad this year is.

agreed...until somebody leaves (SDSU or Fresno or BSU) conference strength is pretty stable.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Meh, as bad as the MWC is and has been during Bohl's tenure, it'll likely be splitting hairs. We'll have to see how bad this year is.

agreed...until somebody leaves (SDSU or Fresno or BSU) conference strength is pretty stable.

I'm glad the UNM game is home. If OOC goes bad (1-3), then that UNM game becomes somewhat pivotal prior to entering a 4 game stretch of a couple rivals and a couple traditionally tougher end of MWC play. Entering that stretch at 1-4 would not be good.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

Meh, as bad as the MWC is and has been during Bohl's tenure, it'll likely be splitting hairs. We'll have to see how bad this year is.

agreed...until somebody leaves (SDSU or Fresno or BSU) conference strength is pretty stable.

That said, I don't think it'll happen but if WYO gets 6 conference wins, it will likely because of the mwc being unprecedented terrible. Again don't think it will happen so will have to revisit if it does. The D is better than 16 team but the o is a lot worse.

A 2-3 start could easily happen.. If the wheels fall off, a 2-7 or 3-6 start is very possible, imo.

 

[307bball]

agreed...until somebody leaves (SDSU or Fresno or BSU) conference strength is pretty stable.

That said, I don't think it'll happen but if WYO gets 6 conference wins, it will likely because of the mwc being unprecedented terrible. Again don't think it will happen so will have to revisit if it does. The D is better than 16 team but the o is a lot worse.

A 2-3 start could easily happen.. If the wheels fall off, a 2-7 or 3-6 start is very possible, imo.

Is a 6+ win conference season a reason to celebrate then?

 

[ragtimejoe1]

That said, I don't think it'll happen but if WYO gets 6 conference wins, it will likely because of the mwc being unprecedented terrible. Again don't think it will happen so will have to revisit if it does. The D is better than 16 team but the o is a lot worse.

A 2-3 start could easily happen.. If the wheels fall off, a 2-7 or 3-6 start is very possible, imo.

Is a 6+ win conference season a reason to celebrate then?

It would be the second in a decade and likely Craig Bohl's ceiling. Celebrate? Meh, that's up to the individual.

I don't think this year's squad is good enough to get to 6+ conference wins unless the MWC is really terrible. I predict the MWC will be typical and we dont get 6+ wins. If the MWC is typical and we get 6+ wins then I'm wrong and the team is better than i expected.

You're trying to debate about how we should feel if it does happen. I'm sure everyone will have their own opinion on that but 6 wins would mean 7-5 or 8-4 most likely.