ragtimejoe1
Well-known member
Weird matchup. Prior to POKES vs fresno and NV vs SJSU, I'd say POKES by 7 or so. Now I'm not so sure.
For O, they are allowing 150/game rushing and 4.0 ypc. They've had a few stronger performances against teams like bsu, but gashing them on the run is POKES' best strategy. POKES' interior o-line has to out-physical Jackson, McMullen and their DTs. They've been susceptible to big chunks against physical o-lines. Biggest offensive matchup, imo. Outmuscle them and leave a lot of 2nd or 3rd and short yardage situations. If they keep POKES in long yardage on 2nd and 3rd downs, it won't be good.
The other key, don't pass or pass very little. Kenion III and Jackson are pretty hawkish. They'll get ints if POKES put enough balls in the air. The more the POKES pass, the more odds tilt in NV's favor.
On D, their zone and gap schemes can get rolling which sets Jones up to be efficient. They won't light you up on the pass but they can be strategic with it. POKES have to keep Jones off balance and off rhythm. If they do, there will be opportunities for turnovers. If they let Jones be comfortable, NV will absolutely move the ball and score. Biggest key on D imo is trying to get Jones into turnover mode and out of efficient mode. He can be both.
Special teams is always a concern. They took a kickoff to the house last week. POKES at minimum have to keep special teams from impacting the game.
Line opened at -10 but dropped to -6.5. If POKES don't pass, I'll go POKES 17 NV 14. If POKES pass more than 14 attempts, I'll go NV 21 POKES 13.
For O, they are allowing 150/game rushing and 4.0 ypc. They've had a few stronger performances against teams like bsu, but gashing them on the run is POKES' best strategy. POKES' interior o-line has to out-physical Jackson, McMullen and their DTs. They've been susceptible to big chunks against physical o-lines. Biggest offensive matchup, imo. Outmuscle them and leave a lot of 2nd or 3rd and short yardage situations. If they keep POKES in long yardage on 2nd and 3rd downs, it won't be good.
The other key, don't pass or pass very little. Kenion III and Jackson are pretty hawkish. They'll get ints if POKES put enough balls in the air. The more the POKES pass, the more odds tilt in NV's favor.
On D, their zone and gap schemes can get rolling which sets Jones up to be efficient. They won't light you up on the pass but they can be strategic with it. POKES have to keep Jones off balance and off rhythm. If they do, there will be opportunities for turnovers. If they let Jones be comfortable, NV will absolutely move the ball and score. Biggest key on D imo is trying to get Jones into turnover mode and out of efficient mode. He can be both.
Special teams is always a concern. They took a kickoff to the house last week. POKES at minimum have to keep special teams from impacting the game.
Line opened at -10 but dropped to -6.5. If POKES don't pass, I'll go POKES 17 NV 14. If POKES pass more than 14 attempts, I'll go NV 21 POKES 13.
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