Just watched these guys lay the lumber to the Wolf Pack. The game was actually fairly competitive. The final score of the game by Fresno was style points enabled by UNR HC Polian taking an ill-advised timeout. The offensive stats for Fresno are staggering- 647 yards with 487 of them coming from Carr's arm. That being said- another stat I find interesting is 3rd down efficiency. Fresno went 6-14 for the game, with 2 of them coming in garbage time. Up until the last possession they were 4-12. Another interesting thing- when Fresno got down inside the UNR 15, they really struggled, turning the ball over on downs on one possession and settling for two field goals on others.
I saw two reasons for this "blow-out" barely materializing in their home stadium against the (statistically) worst defense in the MWC- lack of a running game (we all know this) and pressure on Carr. Let's consider the pressure on Carr.
So far, due to his quick release and players like Burse and Harper, Fresno's opponent's have been loathe to blitz much. Leaving those beasts in man coverage is seemingly a recipe for disaster, but Polian took some chances and went after Carr. Every time they did, the success came, not from the middle or off-tackle, but from the ends. Their guards are pretty suspect. They had a hard time with UNR's speed around them and adjusting to the outside attacks. Several times I watched interior linemen collide or stumble over each other trying to chase pass rushers. I think this is the Achilles Heel of the Fresno offense. The problem was the deep balls the Wolf Pack kept giving up. Like everyone else, Fresno's beating everyone on big plays, plays that happen when Carr's comfortable in the pocket, something he's been all season until tonight. Thing of it is, so far, no one's really attacked the ends. The reasons are obvious- it's a longer route to the QB and it generally leaves the WR's in man coverage. However, this is exactly where UNR succeeded against Carr.
Now, we all know that Fresno's defense is highly suspect. They've played quite a few shootouts,one notable one was their opener against Rutgers- who, as it's turned out, is no great team on defense (and not all that and a bag of chips on offense).
Basically, Fresno's game is to out shoot their opponents. They know they're going to give up points, but they also know they're going to score in bunches, and quickly. So, if you disrupt that scoring, much like UNR did (somewhat), and if you have a better-than-average offense, you should be on pretty equal footing.
Sure, blitzing the edges gives receivers easier routes and single coverage, but on a cold-ass Laramie night, those balls aren't going to be as sharply thrown, nor as easily caught. I say we need to roll the dice and get pressure on Carr early, and hit him. Make him feel it. Make him uncomfortable on that cold field. We make him hesitant. We stop one or two drives, this is Wyoming's game to win or lose.
On the offensive side, Carr hasn't seen a dual-threat QB of Smith's caliber yet. We need to mix it up and get the ball in Wick's hands to keep their weak-ass defense on its heels. Let's not depend on our o-line for pass protection, let's run it at them (this worked for UNR the entire game). How about if the hurry-up combines with more rushing than passing against a team that is clearly vulnerable on the ground? This always works to set up the pass anyway.
Basically, I watched a Coach coach the game away tonight- when the run was working, they switched to throwing. After an end-blitz, they would try to play contain and cover- and they'd get burned. Take away two scores from these guys and they lose.
I could be completely wrong, I've been wrong before, and I will be again, but I know what I saw tonight, and I saw a team that we should be able to beat with a smart game plan.
