More mono...

[ltcpilot]

The big decision for Coach Shyatt is what effect he would have playing against AF since they caught it early, would the effort affect him for the better or worse physically and stamina wise not only for the AF game but then for the much anticipated matchup with SDSU on Wednesday with the fatiguing affect of traveling to AF, traveling home, long trip to SDSU to play again on the road. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm......I'd say rest him, no one needs to worry about 'little old AF with the big bad Aztecs on the horizon!"



GO FALCONS BEAT THE COWBOYS

 

[NowherePoke]

The reality is that Nance will play if he can, whether it is tomorrow or next Wednesday or some point after that.

I don't expect him to play tomorrow (wouldn't really need to discuss it publicly if he wasn't going to miss any time), and it sounds like Herndon definitely won't play tomorrow.

The interesting thing will be how they each feel even if they can play. They probably won't be 100% even if they are on the floor for SDSU or later games. Also, the rotation will have to adjust to limit minutes and fatigue when Nance does come back.

 

[LanderPoke]

If it comes down to it I would Sit Larry tomorrow against AFA. I think AFA comes out a little bit flat tomorrow after their big win against New Mexico on Wednesday and we would still have a great shot to beat them without Larry .

Then we have him for SDSU for sure. Sounds like Herndon will be back in the next 2 to 3 games as well.

Obviously if Larry can play tomorrow also all the better. Sounds like he won't be missing more than tomorrows game at worst.

That's the opposite of how I would play it. Must beat AFA, I repeat MUST beat AFA. @ SDSU we don't necessarily have to win, but, of course, would be awesome. Win tomorrow and then put Larry on bed rest until he is well.

I think you missed my point. Sorry for the confusion.

What I mean is it sounds like the only game Larry could miss at all is the AFA game. He isn't going to miss the SDSU from the sounds of it. So at worst you don't have him tomorrow and again I think we can still beat AFA without him as I think AFA will be a little bit flat after their big win against UNM.

Ah, gotcha. That makes sense.

 

[stymeman]

We really don't need Larry to beat Air Force imo.....yes it sucks but we'll be A OK, Woe is NOT us

 

[Wyolie Coyote]

If it comes down to it I would Sit Larry tomorrow against AFA. I think AFA comes out a little bit flat tomorrow after their big win against New Mexico on Wednesday and we would still have a great shot to beat them without Larry .

Then we have him for SDSU for sure. Sounds like Herndon will be back in the next 2 to 3 games as well.

Obviously if Larry can play tomorrow also all the better. Sounds like he won't be missing more than tomorrows game at worst.

That's the opposite of how I would play it. Must beat AFA, I repeat MUST beat AFA. @ SDSU we don't necessarily have to win, but, of course, would be awesome. Win tomorrow and then put Larry on bed rest until he is well.

Careful, Beaver won't like your train of thought. I agree whole-heartedly. Got to win the games like AFA to hold out any hope for a NCAA bid. A loss at SDSU will not hurt much as it will not be considered a bad loss. We could have several bad losses without Larry. Got to get him healthy.

 

[BeaverPoke]

How do you guys not realize beating SDSU is more important than beating AFA?

We are tied for 1st with SDSU.

If we lose to AFA, fall a game behind, we can beat SDSU and be tied again, and would be even on the season series. 1-1.

If we beat AFA and stay tied, but then lose to SDSU, we fall 1 game behind and are down 0-2 on the season series effectively putting us 2 games back from a conference championship.

Obviously we don't want to lose either game.
But of the 2 games, the SDSU game is a game we can not lose if we want to win the MWC Championship.

 

[BeaverPoke]

Careful, Beaver won't like your train of thought.

Oh boy didn't realize disagreeing with you and using a couple F bombs got your feelers all riled up.

 

[LanderPoke]

How do you guys not realize beating SDSU is more important than beating AFA?

We are tied for 1st with SDSU.

If we lose to AFA, fall a game behind, we can beat SDSU and be tied again, and would be even on the season series. 1-1.

If we beat AFA and stay tied, but then lose to SDSU, we fall 1 game behind and are down 0-2 on the season series effectively putting us 2 games back from a conference championship.

Obviously we don't want to lose either game.
But of the 2 games, the SDSU game is a game we can not lose if we want to win the MWC Championship.

Depends if our focus is winning the conf championship or going for that at-large bid, I guess.

 

[BeaverPoke]

How do you guys not realize beating SDSU is more important than beating AFA?

We are tied for 1st with SDSU.

If we lose to AFA, fall a game behind, we can beat SDSU and be tied again, and would be even on the season series. 1-1.

If we beat AFA and stay tied, but then lose to SDSU, we fall 1 game behind and are down 0-2 on the season series effectively putting us 2 games back from a conference championship.

Obviously we don't want to lose either game.
But of the 2 games, the SDSU game is a game we can not lose if we want to win the MWC Championship.

Depends if our focus is winning the conf championship or going for that at-large bid, I guess.

What about winning the MWC, being the #1 seed so we are set up for the easiest/least difficult path to the MWC Tourney Championship?

 

[LanderPoke]

How do you guys not realize beating SDSU is more important than beating AFA?

We are tied for 1st with SDSU.

If we lose to AFA, fall a game behind, we can beat SDSU and be tied again, and would be even on the season series. 1-1.

If we beat AFA and stay tied, but then lose to SDSU, we fall 1 game behind and are down 0-2 on the season series effectively putting us 2 games back from a conference championship.

Obviously we don't want to lose either game.
But of the 2 games, the SDSU game is a game we can not lose if we want to win the MWC Championship.

Depends if our focus is winning the conf championship or going for that at-large bid, I guess.

What about winning the MWC, being the #1 seed so we are set up for the easiest/least difficult path to the MWC Tourney Championship?

I see your point. And this is all hypothetical, but if we had the choice of playing Larry and going for one game out of AFA/SDSU I would say lets beat AFA for sure. The odds are long we get the win @ SDSU even with a full-strength squad.

 

[whyoh]

But nice mouth punk! You're cool.

This made my day! Classic! :rofl:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVDN8yR3ig0[/youtube]

 

[BeaverPoke]

If you saw the way San Diego State played against Nevada, you would think differently about us not being able to beat them.

Hell they might not win either of their next two games (@Boise, vs Wyo).

I hate this mentality of "Oh SDSU is automatically better so let's just chalk it up as an L".
They aren't any better than us.
They outplayed us the first time, and we can outplay them this next time.

 

[WestWYOPoke]

How do you guys not realize beating SDSU is more important than beating AFA?

We are tied for 1st with SDSU.

If we lose to AFA, fall a game behind, we can beat SDSU and be tied again, and would be even on the season series. 1-1.

If we beat AFA and stay tied, but then lose to SDSU, we fall 1 game behind and are down 0-2 on the season series effectively putting us 2 games back from a conference championship.

Obviously we don't want to lose either game.
But of the 2 games, the SDSU game is a game we can not lose if we want to win the MWC Championship.

Depends if our focus is winning the conf championship or going for that at-large bid, I guess.

What about winning the MWC, being the #1 seed so we are set up for the easiest/least difficult path to the MWC Tourney Championship?

I get your point here Beav, but I also get LanderPokes as well. If we lose to Air Force, you can probably kiss goodbye any chance of an at-large bid, even with a win @SDSU. But a loss @SDSU wouldn't necessarily knock us out of at-large contention by itself. Now if we want to win the regular season championship, yes, an SDSU win is almost a must.

 

[Wyolie Coyote]

How do you guys not realize beating SDSU is more important than beating AFA?

We are tied for 1st with SDSU.

If we lose to AFA, fall a game behind, we can beat SDSU and be tied again, and would be even on the season series. 1-1.

If we beat AFA and stay tied, but then lose to SDSU, we fall 1 game behind and are down 0-2 on the season series effectively putting us 2 games back from a conference championship.

Obviously we don't want to lose either game.
But of the 2 games, the SDSU game is a game we can not lose if we want to win the MWC Championship.

I would wager that SDSU loses at Boise on Saturday. Then we need the Lobos to get them in the Pit the following week. The problem is that we do not beat anybody but San Jose without a healthy Nance. And I would settle for a first place tie even if we get swept by the Aztecs. That is how long its been since we have had anything remotely close to a successful season.

 

[LanderPoke]

If you saw the way San Diego State played against Nevada, you would think differently about us not being able to beat them.

Hell they might not win either of their next two games (@Boise, vs Wyo).

I hate this mentality of "Oh SDSU is automatically better so let's just chalk it up as an L".
They aren't any better than us.
They outplayed us the first time, and we can outplay them this next time.

When's the last time they lost a conf home game?

 

[hithere]

When's the last time they lost a conf home game?

January 16, 2013 75-82 to UNLV.

 

[BeaverPoke]

If we get by AFA, and Boise beats SDSU, we are in a great position for the Aztec game next week, and truthfully their fanbase would likely be more nervous than ours.

We would go up 2 games on them if we won. With 6 games left. With SJSU, Nevada, and Fresno on the schedule after that. I think we turn the tables on them. We wouldn't be the ones scared. They would be. They would be the ones trying to play a perfect game coming off a close win in Reno, and a loss in Boise. We would be the sharks smelling blood.

I guess I feel that, even though we can't afford losses, our team has already escaped the inevitable slump with a win in triple OT in Fresno, and an OT win against New Mexico. I think Wyoming is the team to beat now. Sure we can't afford losses, and we need to tread lightly in terms of Tourney At-Large selection, but we also need to realize our ceiling.

We can't play with this "Oh shit we can't lose" mentality, but more of a "We are going to beat anyone standing in our way of a MWC Title". Let's not ignore the danger of losing to AFA, but let's also aim our sights a little bit higher, and plan on winning a shit ton of games the remainder of the season. Including AFA, and SDSU.

 

[stymeman]

Boise will beat SDSU on Sunday, in Boise, about 97% confidence in that

 

[wyopig]

How do you guys not realize beating SDSU is more important than beating AFA?

We are tied for 1st with SDSU.

If we lose to AFA, fall a game behind, we can beat SDSU and be tied again, and would be even on the season series. 1-1.

If we beat AFA and stay tied, but then lose to SDSU, we fall 1 game behind and are down 0-2 on the season series effectively putting us 2 games back from a conference championship.

Obviously we don't want to lose either game.
But of the 2 games, the SDSU game is a game we can not lose if we want to win the MWC Championship.

Here's the way I look at it. I expect SDSU to lose at Boise this weekend. If that happens, and if Wyoming can beat Air Force, then Wyoming will have an opportunity to take a 2 game lead on SDSU by winning there. That would almost certainly win us the conference championship right there. Not only would we have a 2 game lead with 6 to play, but if we ultimately ended up tied with SDSU for the conference championship, we would win all tiebreakers due to our season sweep of CSU and Boise.

Winning the next two games would alleviate a lot of pressure down the road. Winning one of the two would far from eliminate us from contention, but it would put pressure on us to basically win out...which isn't out of the realm of possibility. I'd say that beating AF is actually more important than winning at SDSU, but there's absolutely no doubt that the SDSU game, if we win, would be the biggest win in a LONG time. The beauty of it is, it's not unrealistic!

 

[NowherePoke]

How do you guys not realize beating SDSU is more important than beating AFA?

We are tied for 1st with SDSU.

If we lose to AFA, fall a game behind, we can beat SDSU and be tied again, and would be even on the season series. 1-1.

If we beat AFA and stay tied, but then lose to SDSU, we fall 1 game behind and are down 0-2 on the season series effectively putting us 2 games back from a conference championship.

Obviously we don't want to lose either game.
But of the 2 games, the SDSU game is a game we can not lose if we want to win the MWC Championship.

Depends if our focus is winning the conf championship or going for that at-large bid, I guess.

What about winning the MWC, being the #1 seed so we are set up for the easiest/least difficult path to the MWC Tourney Championship?

I get your point here Beav, but I also get LanderPokes as well. If we lose to Air Force, you can probably kiss goodbye any chance of an at-large bid, even with a win @SDSU. But a loss @SDSU wouldn't necessarily knock us out of at-large contention by itself. Now if we want to win the regular season championship, yes, an SDSU win is almost a must.

I wonder if the opposite might be true. I think at at-large is a slim possibility at this point, and I also think a win at SDSU with a healthy Nance is a slim possibility. However, any chance at the former might rely on accomplishing the latter.

If we go 1-1 on these road games our RPI and SOS is going to be the same whether the win is against SDSU or AFA. However, the committee has shown a tendency to value quality wins moreso than punishing a bad loss. One of the biggest holes, among many, in our resume is the lack of quality wins. We have no Top 25 RPI wins (and won't) and only 3 Top 50 wins with one of them very borderline (BSU is 48th). We only have one Top 150 RPI road win (seriously). Our best options for road wins are UNM and UNLV but there is a pretty decent shot that neither of them will be Top 100.

IOW, if we lose at SDSU we will have only one Top 100 RPI road win on the season and possibly only two Top 50 wins total (before the MWCT anyway). Basically, we are giving the committee every reason to exclude us.

Having said all of that, there are bad losses (@Cal, RPI = 112, @USU, RPI = 168) and then there are BAD losses (@AFA, RPI = 264 would probably qualify), so that might negate my theory.