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Making some assumptions

W

wellpoke

Well-known member
I've got a question for all you RPI/Bracketology gurus out there. And yes, I'm looking ahead a bit, just curious what you all think.

Let's assume that we win the following:
Nevada, CSU (a toss-up), AF, San Jose, Nevada, Fresno, Utah State

and lose the following:
SDSU, UNLV (a toss-up IMO), New Mexico

That puts us at 24-7 and 13-5 in conference. Probably 2nd in the standings to SDSU.

Here's the question. If we don't win the MWC tourney, is that good enough to get us to the big dance? With that record, we'd have "quality" wins over CSUx2 and New Mexico, but that's about it. No really bad losses though.

Thoughts?
 
I'm not sure we can afford to lose at UNLV. As bad as our RPI is, I don't think we can afford any more losses to sub 100 RPI teams. And hopefully USU can climb their way up. The selection committee will take a close win at quality wins and losses and losing to sub 100 RPI teams isn't what we want to do.

Winning at SDSU would be huge as well as taking care of business at home.

Go Pokes!!
 
you also have to remember two of our wins are against non D-1 so the total they look at is D-1 wins. 22-7 going into the MWC tourney
 
wellpoke said:
I've got a question for all you RPI/Bracketology gurus out there. And yes, I'm looking ahead a bit, just curious what you all think.

Let's assume that we win the following:
Nevada, CSU (a toss-up), AF, San Jose, Nevada, Fresno, Utah State

and lose the following:
SDSU, UNLV (a toss-up IMO), New Mexico

That puts us at 24-7 and 13-5 in conference. Probably 2nd in the standings to SDSU.

Here's the question. If we don't win the MWC tourney, is that good enough to get us to the big dance? With that record, we'd have "quality" wins over CSUx2 and New Mexico, but that's about it. No really bad losses though.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

No. In that scenario would likely have an RPI in the 60's (as per RPIForecast.com). We would have only two Top 50 wins (sweeping CSU) and only 4-6 Top 100 wins (BSU will be a Top 100 win, UNLV, UNM and CU are very borderline and could go either way). We also have bad losses to Cal (likely a Sub 150 RPI opponent), and USU (around 150 RPI) and the projected road losses to UNLV/UNM could end up being Sub 100 losses as well (they both project to RPI's in the 90's).

Most damaging is that our SOS is going to end up at 190 and our OOC SOS around 320. Nothing we can do to change those at this point. The committee has been very clear in punishing weak schedules particularly OOC schedules where the schools have more control. I have posted before, but SMU and La. Tech last year were great examples of teams with 24-26 wins and RPI's in the 50's that were left out with very weak OOC schedules. I believe that would be us at 14-4, 25-6. 13-5, 24-7 is no chance unless we win the MWCT. 14-4, 25-6 is bubble territory but would require some semblance of a run in the MWCT.

For all realistic purposes, the loss to USU ended at-large hopes. We are still playing for a conference title though and we haven't won a MWC title in any sport since 2002 so that would still be a great step, even if it isn't as valuable to building the program as a NCAA tourney bid would be.
 
NowherePoke said:
For all realistic purposes, the loss to USU ended at-large hopes. We are still playing for a conference title though and we haven't won a MWC title in any sport since 2002 so that would still be a great step, even if it isn't as valuable to building the program as a NCAA tourney bid would be.
Click to expand...

Thanks. So, let's change the game and assume that we win the conference title with that record, but get bounced in the tourney. Is that enough to get us in given our low SOS and losses to sub-100 RPI teams?
 
I do believe two things that could be factors getting us in the big tourney. (Although I believe we HAVE to win the Conf or the Tourney).

1- With Nance comes name recognition. Every broadcast they show highlights of his dad and such. I truly think that his name has pull because his dad was a respected player and LN Jr is also fun to watch
2- Shyatt. Like Bohl, I think Shyatt is very respected in the coaching world. I think he does pull some weight
 
wellpoke said:
NowherePoke said:
For all realistic purposes, the loss to USU ended at-large hopes. We are still playing for a conference title though and we haven't won a MWC title in any sport since 2002 so that would still be a great step, even if it isn't as valuable to building the program as a NCAA tourney bid would be.
Click to expand...

Thanks. So, let's change the game and assume that we win the conference title with that record, but get bounced in the tourney. Is that enough to get us in given our low SOS and losses to sub-100 RPI teams?
Click to expand...

I don't think it matters. Washington was left out a couple of years ago after winning the PAC with a 14-4 record and a similar resume (I think their RPI was in the 70's) and of course we were left out after sharing the regular season crown at 10-4 in 00-01 with a RPI in the 60's.

I do think if we go 14-4 and somehow win the MWC outright, that it might help even if technically the committee doesn't care. Of course, I think SDSU will win at least that many, but just hypothetically.
 
In my opinion 13-5 puts us on the bubble but probably on the wrong side of it 14-4 will be on the bubble with a chance to be on the right side of it(last four in or last 4 out). It depends on what happens in the conference tourney. 13-5 while making the championship and beating someone decent would maybe get us in. 14-4 with making the championship would def get us in while 1 win gives us a pretty good shot.

I disagree wit hthe point that winning a conference championship wouldn't be as good as making the tourney and losing in the first round. I think if I had to choose I would choose a conference championship over the tourney. We haven't won a MW championship in any sport since the last time we won in basketball. Thats pathetic. We have to get that monkey off our back. That said, It will take at least 14-4 to win the conference and I think that will get us in the tourney also.
 
We've gotten lots of National pub this season, so we are kinda a household name this year for some, 24-7 is a wonderful goal, but let's make a run on the MWC tourney and not give anyone any questions, or at least make it the championship game!! NO let downs against the teams we are supposed to win against...get er done
 
stymeman said:
let's make a run on the MWC tourney and not give anyone any questions
Click to expand...

I think that's spot on styme. Sounds like we're a bubble team even if we win the conference. So, let's make sure to win the conference AND win the tourney. Wish I could go to Vegas this year...

GO POKES!
 
The most games Wyoming can lose including the MWC tourney without winning it and still have a chance to get into the NCAA's is 6. Losing 7 even with conference championship won't get us in. Even with 6 losses we will be on the bubble because our OOC schedule is so so weak.

We have to either win the MWC tourney or only lose 3 more games total including the MWC tourney to have any shot at an at large.

I am just going to support and enjoy this team whatever comes. It is a lot better now then when Shroyer was here.
 
it is exciting to have this type of dilemna to talk about rather than are we ever gonna win like the Schroyer days, take it everyday, all day, lol
 
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