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Lines are out: We are +30 at Texas

B

bladerunnr

Well-known member
Seems like a lot. My concern about this game is the heat. Our guys will be playing in heat that they haven't felt in Laramie. Btw, we are +3500 on the moneyline.

If I had to bet it, I would take the points. A big test for our run defense and our O-line.
 
That is a big line. Not sure I agree. However, Texas does not need good QB play to hammer UW. If they run the ball effectively on UW's poor rush defense, it could get ugly.

But to be honest, no offence to any of our Longhorn readers, but ever since Colt McCoy graduated, the Longhorns have been similar to Notre Dame in that they are unjustly highly ranked and over respected IMO. I think Wyoming easily keeps this one under 30. They won't win, but it won't be a massive blowout either.

The goal is to stay healthy and improve. The rush defense got hammered by everyone last year. Would be nice to see if they can improve, even if only slightly. I have my doubts with Biezuns/Knapton gone.
 
I think Wyoming will probably cover the 30 points as well. I see a 27-10 or 30-10 type game. Hoping we shock the world and win but I'll take winning some money on it over nothing.

A game I am liking the first week is Boise St. +7 against Michigan St. The reason I am liking them is because it seems everyone and their grandma and their dog is on Michigan St. on every message board I visit and that usually doesn't go so well. MIchigan St. might win but I think Boise stays within 7.
 
seattlecowboy said:
I think Wyoming will probably cover the 30 points as well. I see a 27-10 or 30-10 type game. Hoping we shock the world and win but I'll take winning some money on it over nothing.

A game I am liking the first week is Boise St. +7 against Michigan St. The reason I am liking them is because it seems everyone and their grandma and their dog is on Michigan St. on every message board I visit and that usually doesn't go so well. MIchigan St. might win but I think Boise stays within 7.
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I like Boise st. as well. Big 10 is always overrated. As much as I hate to say it, I like csewe getting 6.5 against CU. CU is picked to finish a distant last in the pac 12. In fact, they might be even worse than last year. Probably a boring punt fest and very low scoring. I also like it going under the total of 46.
 
bladerunnr said:
I like Boise st. as well. Big 10 is always overrated. As much as I hate to say it, I like csewe getting 6.5 against CU. CU is picked to finish a distant last in the pac 12. In fact, they might be even worse than last year. Probably a boring punt fest and very low scoring. I also like it going under the total of 46.
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I was thinking about putting the Mich St. game on my ML parlay cards to bring the odds down, but am really high on Mich St. These opening ML lines at -40000 (LSU) to -60000 (USC) are depressing. Michigan State's defense this year looks unbelievable; and the last two years, Boise has won me money but I think this year they just lose too much.

If I bet spreads well, which I don't, I'd look at Wyoming, Michigan at +10, LaTech at +11, Ohio +15.5, and maybe Toldeo at +4.5.

I'll stick with the ML's...
 
Wyoming is not going to UT to lose by 30 or 20 or even 10. We are going down there to win. UT is in for the shock of their lives.
 
WYCowboy said:
Wyoming is not going to UT to lose by 30 or 20 or even 10. We are going down there to win. UT is in for the shock of their lives.
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I'll hold you to it WYCowboy. ;)
 
J-Rod said:
WYCowboy said:
Wyoming is not going to UT to lose by 30 or 20 or even 10. We are going down there to win. UT is in for the shock of their lives.
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I hold you to it WYCowboy. ;)
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That makes two of us.

Honestly, I think we'll lose but it won't be a blowout.
 
To me, showing signs of optimism for the season (i.e. run D and O productivity) and NO INJURIES is a W.

I think we cover.
 
My sportsbook has Wyoming's win total for the season over or under at 5.5 games.With the over juiced to -225 and under +185. I know it's a lot of Juice but I'm going to have to take the over on that bet.
 
seattlecowboy said:
My sportsbook has Wyoming's win total for the season over or under at 5.5 games.With the over juiced to -225 and under +185. I know it's a lot of Juice but I'm going to have to take the over on that bet.
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That is sweet, beautiful action. I'm going to plead with my book to take some wagers on Wyoming win total.
 
I received Phil Steele's weekly newletter called Powersweep in the mail yesterday. He is not the end all be all by any means but gives good information. He has Texas picked to beat Wyoming 48-6. Says Texas has his #6 rated offense and #6 rated defense. Has Wyoming's offense rated #93 and defense is rated #90.

Other notables: He has his top pick in power sweep this week as a 4* on Michigan St.-7 over Boise st. 34-17

3* on California -11 over Nevada 38-17
Byu 37 WSU 23
Stanford 37 SJSU 16
Colorado 27 CSU 20
USC 48 Hawaii 10
Washington 34 SDSU 24
Let me know if you guys are curious about any other games he lists. He has most of these up on his website by the end of the week. Just more info is all.

I don't disagree with him about Wyoming's defense because I need to see them play first but I do disagree with him about Wyoming's offense as I think we will be way better than #93 in the nation on offense this year. If we aren't then there might be riots in the streets of Laramie.
 
Never, never ever, never ever ever bet on UT. We'll come out flat and play down to an opponent, Mack will have an attack of class and we'll turn the ball over on downs while taking delay of game penalties inside the opponent's 20 yard line so as not to score, or an opponent will have three act of God type TD's in a game.

It's hard to get a read on this game. 2 of our 3 starting wide receivers are injured but expected to play, our fg kicking is unsettled and we're going to need to find a warm body to place on the end of the line at TE or play a bigger receiver in the slot for blocking purposes.

I think most UT fans are seeing this as a 35-14 type of game with leeway either way. If your run defense isn't shored up it could be ugly. If our passing offense is still developmentally challenged it could be uncomfortably tight.

We'll see. Hook'em.
 
How is Texas the #6 offense in the nation? Wouldn't that require a standout QB? All Texas has is someone to hand the ball off to the RB and every once in awhile, to (attempt) to throw it. Defense? Sure, really good defense there. Good RBs and power run o-line, yep. Good QB? Nope.
 
fromolwyoming said:
How is Texas the #6 offense in the nation? Wouldn't that require a standout QB? All Texas has is someone to hand the ball off to the RB and every once in awhile, to (attempt) to throw it. Defense? Sure, really good defense there. Good RBs and power run o-line, yep. Good QB? Nope.
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That is just his pre-season ranking on how good he thinks they will be this year. Obviously if their QB play hasn't improved in the passing game then they won't be that high. Guess we will see.
 
For what it's worth, preseason fluff aside, Ash is supposedly taken a step forward and will be more than a game manager. The expectation by Harsin and Applwhite is that when things are going well he'll carve up some people , and when things don't go well it'll be time to punt and let the defense handle things. He's probably not ready to carry the team on his shoulders yet. Keep in mind that Bama and LSU, two teams who've taken it to pretty much everyone over the last two years, are beating people without anything approaching elite QB play. And that is the template Texas is attempting to copy. Also keep in mind that, barring injuries, teams will have to honor the Texas ground attack. There are going to be WR's running loose in the secondary with a numbers advantage, and a number of coverage busts from defenders peeking in the backfield. We only need to take advantage of those opportunities.

Texas has a QB. He's not going to remind anyone of Andrew Luck this year, but he will surprise some folks.
 
seattlecowboy said:
I received Phil Steele's weekly newletter called Powersweep in the mail yesterday. He is not the end all be all by any means but gives good information. He has Texas picked to beat Wyoming 48-6. Says Texas has his #6 rated offense and #6 rated defense. Has Wyoming's offense rated #93 and defense is rated #90.

Other notables: He has his top pick in power sweep this week as a 4* on Michigan St.-7 over Boise st. 34-17

3* on California -11 over Nevada 38-17
Byu 37 WSU 23
Stanford 37 SJSU 16
Colorado 27 CSU 20
USC 48 Hawaii 10
Washington 34 SDSU 24
Let me know if you guys are curious about any other games he lists. He has most of these up on his website by the end of the week. Just more info is all.

I don't disagree with him about Wyoming's defense because I need to see them play first but I do disagree with him about Wyoming's offense as I think we will be way better than #93 in the nation on offense this year. If we aren't then there might be riots in the streets of Laramie.
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Thanks seattlecowboy. Do you do his weekly pickem poll? I use the % numbers late in the day on Friday for a little analysis on my Saturday picks always with a grain of salt. His crowd sourcing poll from earlier in the season has results showing most people think San Diego State will win in Laramie this year.

Also stumbled across this today: http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/
 
hithere said:
seattlecowboy said:
I received Phil Steele's weekly newletter called Powersweep in the mail yesterday. He is not the end all be all by any means but gives good information. He has Texas picked to beat Wyoming 48-6. Says Texas has his #6 rated offense and #6 rated defense. Has Wyoming's offense rated #93 and defense is rated #90.

Other notables: He has his top pick in power sweep this week as a 4* on Michigan St.-7 over Boise st. 34-17

3* on California -11 over Nevada 38-17
Byu 37 WSU 23
Stanford 37 SJSU 16
Colorado 27 CSU 20
USC 48 Hawaii 10
Washington 34 SDSU 24
Let me know if you guys are curious about any other games he lists. He has most of these up on his website by the end of the week. Just more info is all.

I don't disagree with him about Wyoming's defense because I need to see them play first but I do disagree with him about Wyoming's offense as I think we will be way better than #93 in the nation on offense this year. If we aren't then there might be riots in the streets of Laramie.
Click to expand...

Thanks seattlecowboy. Do you do his weekly pickem poll? I use the % numbers late in the day on Friday for a little analysis on my Saturday picks always with a grain of salt. His crowd sourcing poll from earlier in the season has results showing most people think San Diego State will win in Laramie this year.

Also stumbled across this today: http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/
Click to expand...

Hey hithere,

I do not do his weekly polls. If anything I would go opposite of what the majority of people think. That's funny you came across that website "thepredictiontracker" as I found that site about 4 years ago and have studied it in the past and tried to use it in one way or another to see if I could find any edge with it but it seemed to hit around 50% ats. It is a good tool to use though to see what different computers are predicting.

I actually came up with a way to hit a pretty decent percentage last year on college football and basketball as well as the NBA and NFL using line moves and public percentages. It was hitting around 65% but that is a very very high percentage and I am not sure it will maintain this year. I tried to backtrack it and it seemed to work out very well in years past also. I will post the plays I come up with using it again this year and see how it does. I'll post this weeks plays each day as they pop up. Be nice if it maintained.
 
seattlecowboy said:
Hey hithere,

I do not do his weekly polls. If anything I would go opposite of what the majority of people think. That's funny you came across that website "thepredictiontracker" as I found that site about 4 years ago and have studied it in the past and tried to use it in one way or another to see if I could find any edge with it but it seemed to hit around 50% ats. It is a good tool to use though to see what different computers are predicting.

I actually came up with a way to hit a pretty decent percentage last year on college football and basketball as well as the NBA and NFL using line moves and public percentages. It was hitting around 65% but that is a very very high percentage and I am not sure it will maintain this year. I tried to backtrack it and it seemed to work out very well in years past also. I will post the plays I come up with using it again this year and see how it does. I'll post this weeks plays each day as they pop up. Be nice if it maintained.
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I bought a GamePlan college annual this year for comparison's sake. They had Wyoming fifth.
Also this:
http://www.bodakspicks.com/2012/08/27/more-analysis-of-2011-simulation/
And of course, this:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei


Phil Steele's numbers are interesting to me when over 90% of the picks go for a team. Same with the first link above, if his model projects a >=17 point win, it's right 94% of the time. I bet ML's.

We're living in a golden age of statistical analysis; if one looks hard enough, there are dozens of stats guys out there churning out "systems" and models for free just for fun. It's amazing. And by this time of year, after reading as much as I can find, I'm starting to second guess my own picks. Ha!
 
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