Glenn vs. Bohl - An Analysis

[PokeNer]

Warning: Long post with a lot of data


This topic has been brought up quite a few times, and I think folks have analyzed it. But I wanted to dig back in (not that it really makes a difference) and analyze the Glenn vs Bohl comparison. It’s widely viewed that Glenn faced much tougher competition and a stronger MW; I wanted to prove or disprove this opinion.

I used Sagarin for rankings and ratings, which I know can be a debatable system. However, it’s the one I was able to find data easily and consistent through both tenures. Sagarin ranking is the numerical ranking 1 - X # of teams. Sagarin rating is the formula used by Jeff Sagarin to rate teams. Below the summary is the data

In summary, Glenn faced a much tougher MW schedule as well as overall schedule. Bohl's average opponent ranking is 92, where Glenn's was 70. That's a HUGE difference in competition. The average MW team ranking for Glenn's tenure was 63, whereas it has been 89 in Bohl's. The MW is much worse now than in Glenn's tenure.

Glenn was much more consistent against bad teams – 100% winning record against teams with a Sagarin rating below 60, where Bohl is only 68.6%. Bohl has many more bad losses; 11 vs teams lower than a 60 Sagarin which typically accounts for teams that are ranked 100 and below (including FCS). Glenn never lost to a team lower than a 60 Sagarin in 15 games.

We’ve claimed that Bohl and his offense is consistent against the teams that we should beat. However, that doesn’t prove to be true. He has a lot of losses against terrible teams, whereas Glenn and Cockhill ALWAYS beat those teams. To be fair, it was likely the D holding the team back in the first 3 years of Bohl.

Bohl has been better against the lower-tier competition (Sagarin 60-70), winning 55% of the games. These teams typically rank in the 75-100 range. This appears to be Glenn’s weakness (39.1%). When you jump up in competition to the next tier (70-80 Sagarin) Bohl wins 16.7% of the time vs Glenn at 28.6%. A 70-80 Sagarin typically equates to 25th – 75th best teams in the country.

Both coaches failed to beat Top-25 teams. Glenn coached 12 games against teams above 80 in Sagarin, winning none. Bohl has coached 7, also winning none.

Take it for what it’s worth, but it appears that Glenn was the better coach when you compare similar Opponents.

Glenn
Overall Opponent Sagarin Rank: 70.3
Overall Opponent Sagarin Rating: 70.1
MW Sagarin Avg Rating: 70.08 (fairly consistent)

W/L Record Based on Sagarin Rating (Higher Sagarin = Better Opponent)

Teams > 90
W: 0
L: 3
Win %: 0

Teams 80-90
W: 0
L: 9
Win %: 0

Teams 70-80
W: 6
L: 15
Win %: 28.6

Teams 60-70
W: 9
L: 14
Win %: 39.1

Teams 50-60
W: 14
L: 0
Win %: 100.0

Teams <50
W: 1
L: 0
Win %: 100.0

Bohl
Overall Opponent Sagarin Rank: 90.5
Overall Opponent Sagarin Rating: 64.5
MW Sagarin Avg Rating: 64.85 (2016 was high at 67.10 / 2017 was low at 60.28)
MW Record: 24-29 45.3%

W/L Record Based on Sagarin Rating (Higher Sagarin = Better Opponent)

Teams > 90
W: 0
L: 2
Win %: 0

Teams 80-90
W: 0
L: 5
Win %: 0

Teams 70-80
W: 3
L: 16
Win %: 15.8

Teams 60-70
W: 11
L: 9
Win %: 55.0

Teams 50-60
W: 17
L: 9
Win %: 65.4

Teams <50
W: 7
L: 2
Win %: 77.8

 

[ragtimejoe1]

To be fair, it was likely the D holding the team back in the first 3 years of Bohl.

Good data and something I've personally been on board with for some time. DC was an absolute disaster.

On a side note relative to the quoted line, ironically, Bohl's best year was with one of his worst defenses.

 

[PokeNer]

To be fair, it was likely the D holding the team back in the first 3 years of Bohl.

Good data and something I've personally been on board with for some time. DC was an absolute disaster.

On a side note relative to the quoted line, ironically, Bohl's best year was with one of his worst defenses.

Thanks Ragtime. I agree, who knows what 2016 would have looked like if we had Hazleton a year earlier. Also, 2017 was a dumpster fire for the MW, only Boise was ranked above 50 (at 33; Fresno was 53), everyone else was 84 or lower. If only we could have had some offense to go with JA that year.

My question for Burman - why does Bohl get a pass, while Glenn was given a year less for the same problem? Is it bowl games?

 

[307bball]

To be fair, it was likely the D holding the team back in the first 3 years of Bohl.

Good data and something I've personally been on board with for some time. DC was an absolute disaster.

On a side note relative to the quoted line, ironically, Bohl's best year was with one of his worst defenses.

Good analysis...For myself...I'm pretty unmoved by claims made about "relative strength" of teams over time. I really liked Joe Glenn...all the way to the end....and I agreed with the leadership at the time that it was time to move on. Ultimately he was let go because he was uncompetitive in the conference at the time. If there is an alternate universe where everything else stays the same and all of the teams ahead of Wyoming in the MWC during those years are replaced with lower level teams...Glenn keeps his job.

As has been pointed out (without controversy I might add), the MW is not as good once Utah, TCU, and BYU were replaced with much lower strength teams. But...does that matter to Wyoming coaches? Glen got the axe because he had a winning percentage in conference of 0.328!...that is an average that translated to just above 2-5 in conference. Not only that...there was no redeeming trajectory...if anything, the team was heading in the wrong direction when they let him go.

Bohl is not on the hot seat for the same reason that Glenn was. Bohl's conference winning percentage is 0.480 over his first six seasons....and the trajectory is up over his tenure and with Boh'ls most recent four years posting a 0.594 winning percentage in conference.

I will say this, If CB can win 5+ conference games per year for the next two years...that would create separation between the two in my mind. I have Bohl slightly ahead of Glenn in my rankings of coaches this century and he'd have to have a couple 2 win conference seasons to change that.

Now, I don't really know what to make of this season...as others have said...it feels exhibition-ish. No players are going to lose elegibility...the champions of this season will forever have an asterisk...Are there going to be a ton of career records broken because talented freshman right now will get to play so many more games? I don't know. I just know that I don't think the Pokes are any good this year and I can't muster much outrage over it due to external factors.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

To be fair, it was likely the D holding the team back in the first 3 years of Bohl.

Good data and something I've personally been on board with for some time. DC was an absolute disaster.

On a side note relative to the quoted line, ironically, Bohl's best year was with one of his worst defenses.

Thanks Ragtime. I agree, who knows what 2016 would have looked like if we had Hazleton a year earlier. Also, 2017 was a dumpster fire for the MW, only Boise was ranked above 50 (at 33; Fresno was 53), everyone else was 84 or lower. If only we could have had some offense to go with JA that year.

My question for Burman - why does Bohl get a pass, while Glenn was given a year less for the same problem? Is it bowl games?

Most fans don't follow conference strength. They only care about bowl game and conference record. As such, Burman doesn't care about these either.

I think the vast majority are extremely happy with 7-8 wins year in and year out with a few off years for rebuilding. In all honesty, maybe those of us with a bit higher expectations need to temper them. I wasn't hoping for bsu-level of success year in and year out, but I was hoping that we'd at least be able to sniff or be in a discussion for the NY6 bid every once in a while. I'm starting to realize the problem is me. I have unreasonable expectations.

 

[LanderPoke]

To be fair, it was likely the D holding the team back in the first 3 years of Bohl.

Good data and something I've personally been on board with for some time. DC was an absolute disaster.

On a side note relative to the quoted line, ironically, Bohl's best year was with one of his worst defenses.

Offense wins championships. You listening, BOHL?!

 

[307bball]

To be fair, it was likely the D holding the team back in the first 3 years of Bohl.

Good data and something I've personally been on board with for some time. DC was an absolute disaster.

On a side note relative to the quoted line, ironically, Bohl's best year was with one of his worst defenses.

Thanks Ragtime. I agree, who knows what 2016 would have looked like if we had Hazleton a year earlier. Also, 2017 was a dumpster fire for the MW, only Boise was ranked above 50 (at 33; Fresno was 53), everyone else was 84 or lower. If only we could have had some offense to go with JA that year.

My question for Burman - why does Bohl get a pass, while Glenn was given a year less for the same problem? Is it bowl games?

Most fans don't follow conference strength. They only care about bowl game and conference record. As such, Burman doesn't care about these either.

I think the vast majority are extremely happy with 7-8 wins year in and year out with a few off years for rebuilding. In all honesty, maybe those of us with a bit higher expectations need to temper them. I wasn't hoping for bsu-level of success year in and year out, but I was hoping that we'd at least be able to sniff or be in a discussion for the NY6 bid every once in a while. I'm starting to realize the problem is me. I have unreasonable expectations.

In Glenn's second to last year he won 2 conference games....his last year he only won 1! If he just wins 3 conference games that year I doubt they let him go....much less go .500 which is what Bohl has done the last two years. Ragtime is completely correct that 7ish wins per year will keep your job at Wyoming. The other thing I would observe is if you put two dumpster fire seasons back to back ... you probably get the boot. That was Glenn's situation.

 

[WyomingAgJ]

To be fair, it was likely the D holding the team back in the first 3 years of Bohl.

Good data and something I've personally been on board with for some time. DC was an absolute disaster.

On a side note relative to the quoted line, ironically, Bohl's best year was with one of his worst defenses.

Thanks Ragtime. I agree, who knows what 2016 would have looked like if we had Hazleton a year earlier. Also, 2017 was a dumpster fire for the MW, only Boise was ranked above 50 (at 33; Fresno was 53), everyone else was 84 or lower. If only we could have had some offense to go with JA that year.

My question for Burman - why does Bohl get a pass, while Glenn was given a year less for the same problem? Is it bowl games?

Most fans don't follow conference strength. They only care about bowl game and conference record. As such, Burman doesn't care about these either.

I think the vast majority are extremely happy with 7-8 wins year in and year out with a few off years for rebuilding. In all honesty, maybe those of us with a bit higher expectations need to temper them. I wasn't hoping for bsu-level of success year in and year out, but I was hoping that we'd at least be able to sniff or be in a discussion for the NY6 bid every once in a while. I'm starting to realize the problem is me. I have unreasonable expectations.

I would also say Bohl bought himself years of job security my making the mw championship game. Even though we lost 6 games that season, even though we made the game via the tie breaker going our way, and even though we lost, just making the game cemented him as best coach ever in many fans minds, and made burmans job easy to just give bohl a big extension after that because all the fans were happy thinking we had turned the corner.

Now years later it seems at that time Bohl did successfully turn the corner from a horrible losing team for the last many prior years to at least an average team that was more consistent as shown by the bowl eligibility each of the last 4 years.

In my opinion though we have not turned the corner to a "top" mountain west team because we still lose 5 games a year on average, we keep having "bad" losses to teams every year, and we have yet to win the division outright or the conference.

For me I continue to hope Wyoming doesn't stay satisfied as an average team. I hope the athletic department, coaches, fans, etc continue to strive to be a top team and don't settle with "well this is as good as we can expect at little old wyoming"

 

[ragtimejoe1]

For me personally, Bohl basically calling anyone who questions the offense a twit, lost me. I'll cheer for the POKES but my give a shit level is bottomed out.

Follow his lead. Shut up and be grateful we're fielding a team that can beat some mwc teams.

Like I said, I'm realizing that my expectations are too unrealistic to be a hardcore WYO fan.

 

[307bball]

For me personally, Bohl basically calling anyone who questions the offense a twit, lost me. I'll cheer for the POKES but my give a Sh#t level is bottomed out.

Follow his lead. Shut up and be grateful we're fielding a team that can beat some mwc teams.

Like I said, I'm realizing that my expectations are too unrealistic to be a hardcore WYO fan.

Coach-speak is soooo much drivel. They literally can't tell the truth ... like ever!...I don't remember who coined it but it has been used by a lot of commenters when referring to coach-speak...it's called a must-lie situation. Have a cruddy QB? You can't say that. Want to explore other opportunities at other schools? Can't say that. Bohl's observation that he and every coach sits in a very scrutinized position by people who are not qualified to be equipment managers is a total dodge of the question but it is what every coach would say (or some version of it) in that situation. I understand the reporters job is to ask the "tough" questions but what do you expect....a long pause and a heartfelt apology with an admission that he does not know what he's doing? That has literally never happened in the history of head coaches. Once in a while you get the blustery "I'm going to do whatever it takes to fix what is going on" answer...which may make everybody feel slightly better but is no indication that anything ever actually will get better.

I'll start feeling better when we have a reall football season and the pokes start winning.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

That has literally never happened in the history of head coaches. Once in a while you get the blustery "I'm going to do whatever it takes to fix what is going on" answer...which may make everybody feel slightly better but is no indication that anything ever actually will get better.

I'll start feeling better when we have a reall football season and the pokes start winning.

He doesn't hesitate to throw the defense under the bus. If he would have said: "Yeah, offensive production has to increase and we need to get better on 3rd down. There are a variety of reasons for that, but if we want to win games, I expect more out of the offensive side of the ball", or something like that, I would be more on board. He refuses to even acknowledge (outside of 1 comment over the summer) that the offense is even an issue.

Calling anyone who questions the offense a twit is not the canned coach answer that is used unanimously by college coaches.

 

[307bball]

That has literally never happened in the history of head coaches. Once in a while you get the blustery "I'm going to do whatever it takes to fix what is going on" answer...which may make everybody feel slightly better but is no indication that anything ever actually will get better.

I'll start feeling better when we have a reall football season and the pokes start winning.

He doesn't hesitate to throw the defense under the bus. If he would have said: "Yeah, offensive production has to increase and we need to get better on 3rd down. There are a variety of reasons for that, but if we want to win games, I expect more out of the offensive side of the ball", or something like that, I would be more on board. He refuses to even acknowledge (outside of 1 comment over the summer) that the offense is even an issue.

Calling anyone who questions the offense a twit is not the canned coach answer that is used unanimously by college coaches.

Well...this may be just illustrating a difference that you and I have. I am not bothered in the least by stuff the coaches say....I am ripped to the point of shutting off my care for the program when the product sucks. Not saying you don't care about the product (you obviously do).

Would you really feel better if he says the stuff you want to hear after bad losses? Maybe in the first few years of a coaches tenure, since it would indicate direction...but now I feel like we have a good read on what Bohl is all about I don't think we are getting any new information from the press. The stuff on the field is driving how I feel about Bohl right now...and for the record, I bet you and I don't feel a whole lot differently about where we are at right now.

 

[Wyovanian]

To be fair, it was likely the D holding the team back in the first 3 years of Bohl.

Good data and something I've personally been on board with for some time. DC was an absolute disaster.

On a side note relative to the quoted line, ironically, Bohl's best year was with one of his worst defenses.

Thanks Ragtime. I agree, who knows what 2016 would have looked like if we had Hazleton a year earlier. Also, 2017 was a dumpster fire for the MW, only Boise was ranked above 50 (at 33; Fresno was 53), everyone else was 84 or lower. If only we could have had some offense to go with JA that year.

My question for Burman - why does Bohl get a pass, while Glenn was given a year less for the same problem? Is it bowl games?

Most fans don't follow conference strength. They only care about bowl game and conference record. As such, Burman doesn't care about these either.

I think the vast majority are extremely happy with 7-8 wins year in and year out with a few off years for rebuilding. In all honesty, maybe those of us with a bit higher expectations need to temper them. I wasn't hoping for bsu-level of success year in and year out, but I was hoping that we'd at least be able to sniff or be in a discussion for the NY6 bid every once in a while. I'm starting to realize the problem is me. I have unreasonable expectations.

Bullsh-t! Expecting a program with Wyoming's history and tradition to be be competitive with someone like Boise State is NOT unreasonable! Too many people confuse "reasonable expectations" with lack of vision. In my opinion, since the departure of Gary Barta, UW Athletics has lacked both the vision AND the will to power to support ANY kind of vision. Seems commonplace in Wyoming. Because doing things here seems to be harder than other places, let's lower our standards and accept that we're the Appalachia of the West. This state is the poster child for complacency and mediocrity.

 

[Wyovanian]

That has literally never happened in the history of head coaches. Once in a while you get the blustery "I'm going to do whatever it takes to fix what is going on" answer...which may make everybody feel slightly better but is no indication that anything ever actually will get better.

I'll start feeling better when we have a reall football season and the pokes start winning.

He doesn't hesitate to throw the defense under the bus. If he would have said: "Yeah, offensive production has to increase and we need to get better on 3rd down. There are a variety of reasons for that, but if we want to win games, I expect more out of the offensive side of the ball", or something like that, I would be more on board. He refuses to even acknowledge (outside of 1 comment over the summer) that the offense is even an issue.

Calling anyone who questions the offense a twit is not the canned coach answer that is used unanimously by college coaches.

Well...this may be just illustrating a difference that you and I have. I am not bothered in the least by stuff the coaches say....I am ripped to the point of shutting off my care for the program when the product sucks. Not saying you don't care about the product (you obviously do).

Would you really feel better if he says the stuff you want to hear after bad losses? Maybe in the first few years of a coaches tenure, since it would indicate direction...but now I feel like we have a good read on what Bohl is all about I don't think we are getting any new information from the press. The stuff on the field is driving how I feel about Bohl right now...and for the record, I bet you and I don't feel a whole lot differently about where we are at right now.

I think, for a lot of fans and donors, Bohl's disrespect for them COMBINED with the results is very off-putting. He is rapidly losing the goodwill of many fans with what seems to be a condescending "You should be grateful for what I've given you" attitude.

 

[307bball]

To be fair, it was likely the D holding the team back in the first 3 years of Bohl.

Good data and something I've personally been on board with for some time. DC was an absolute disaster.

On a side note relative to the quoted line, ironically, Bohl's best year was with one of his worst defenses.

Thanks Ragtime. I agree, who knows what 2016 would have looked like if we had Hazleton a year earlier. Also, 2017 was a dumpster fire for the MW, only Boise was ranked above 50 (at 33; Fresno was 53), everyone else was 84 or lower. If only we could have had some offense to go with JA that year.

My question for Burman - why does Bohl get a pass, while Glenn was given a year less for the same problem? Is it bowl games?

Most fans don't follow conference strength. They only care about bowl game and conference record. As such, Burman doesn't care about these either.

I think the vast majority are extremely happy with 7-8 wins year in and year out with a few off years for rebuilding. In all honesty, maybe those of us with a bit higher expectations need to temper them. I wasn't hoping for bsu-level of success year in and year out, but I was hoping that we'd at least be able to sniff or be in a discussion for the NY6 bid every once in a while. I'm starting to realize the problem is me. I have unreasonable expectations.

Bullsh-t! Expecting a program with Wyoming's history and tradition to be be competitive with someone like Boise State is NOT unreasonable! Too many people confuse "reasonable expectations" with lack of vision. In my opinion, since the departure of Gary Barta, UW Athletics has lacked both the vision AND the will to power to support ANY kind of vision. Seems commonplace in Wyoming. Because doing things here seems to be harder than other places, let's lower our standards and accept that we're the Appalachia of the West. This state is the poster child for complacency and mediocrity.

Fire up the pink slips...keep firin' and hirin'...shotgun approach...have to hit gold sometime right? In general...I agree that we should have high expectations. What would you suggest? What are we doing that is guaranteeing mediocre results? Shall we just say..."by year 5 we have a conference championship or you are gone"?

 

[bladerunnr]

I just have a couple of facts to add. In 4 of 7 years under Glenn, we won 2 or fewer conference games. Point 2 - Dax Crum and Karsten Sween. Nuff said.

 

[cowpoke pride]

Appearing in the conference championship game the year after the 2015 season certainly helped build some goodwill/wiggle room for Bohl. And I completely agree that the timing of the Glenn firing had everything to do with in conference performance those last few seasons.

As far as expectations go, I started attending the University of Wyoming 23 years ago and we have been ranked in the AP poll a grand total of one week since then ('98). That's 1 out of the last roughly 322 polls (0.31%). I don't think its unreasonable, even for "little old Wyoming," to crack the top 25 for a week or two every couple of seasons. I also don't think that one top 25 finish each decade is asking too much (we've had 1 in the 48 years that I've been breathing).

 

[OrediggerPoke]

I just have a couple of facts to add. In 4 of 7 years under Glenn, we won 2 or fewer conference games. Point 2 - Dax Crum and Karsten Sween. Nuff said.

When speaking of Wyoming quarterbacks and the publicity that they have generated for the University of Wyoming it is: (1) Josh Allen; and (2) Dax Crum.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

Appearing in the conference championship game the year after the 2015 season certainly helped build some goodwill/wiggle room for Bohl. And I completely agree that the timing of the Glenn firing had everything to do with in conference performance those last few seasons.

As far as expectations go, I started attending the University of Wyoming 23 years ago and we have been ranked in the AP poll a grand total of one week since then ('98). That's 1 out of the last roughly 322 polls (0.31%). I don't think its unreasonable, even for "little old Wyoming," to crack the top 25 for a week or two every couple of seasons. I also don't think that one top 25 finish each decade is asking too much (we've had 1 in the 48 years that I've been breathing).

Incentive to live longer perhaps? Half full cups.

 

[CowboyX]

Remember when Glenn beat NDSU by 3 points in the 4th quarter?

The year earlier, whipped Kansas State?

Yeah. Quit being lame. Give the guy some support. He gets Boises attention.

Tough defense. Going to run the ball. I definetely wish Vigen would make this prettier. He doesn't though.

If it comes down to anything, we got a great head coach, he can find some very great defensive guys. We suck now and then on defense, but he seems to have it under control.

The offensive coordinator - he has a plan and he has been working with it. Trust me, he doesn't get excited when you get a boner. That is because you are lazy.

I hope you lazy asses put on a mask, suck it up, and try to be decent... Your mostly just selfish fucks.

Get off your ass and do something useful. Quit being fucking lazy. Love you all, but goddamn lazy Wyomingites.