General MWC hoops talk

[Cowboy Junky]

Boise lost by 13 on the road to College of Charleston. I don't see Boise as the fifth best MWC team this year like the media says they are. There's no reason we can't finish above them.

Is college of Charleston good?

They had an RPI around 140 last year.

They seemed to have a lot of athletic guards and played good defense, but Boise just doesn't look like they have anyone that can score this year aside from Hutch. Boise look really young and they have a lot of big unathletic dough boys in the post.

There's no way they're finishing 5th in the MWC this year.

 

[joshvanklomp]

We're seeing exactly how preseason polls are based more on the previous season than they are on predicting future success.

 

[Cowboy Junky]

Boise lost by 12 to Mississippi State tonight in Charleston.

The Lobos beat NMSU by 13 in Albuquerque.

Nevada beat up the Beaver's in Reno by 25.

It's starting to look like the top 3 are SDSU, UNM, and Nevada. That's what I expected. I'll have to see more from USU, but I don't see any reason barring injury(knock on wood) that Wyoming can't finish fourth this year.

 

[NowherePoke]

Some weekend results:

AFA - beat FAMU 87-62 to move to 4-0. AFA hasn't played anyone yet, but they have a fairly experienced group and should be improved. Important for the MWC to have lower tier teams do better OOC and AFA is starting out that way.

BSU - beat Western Michigan 91-70 to move to 2-2. This game would have been much more interesting in Football. It looks like Leon Rice remembered that Paris Austin is on his team, so that is nice. Hutchison looks like he has made the leap. Will be a down year for Boise, but they are well positioned to be good again by next year.

CSU - Lost to Stanford 56-49 in Palo Alto to move to 2-1. Eustachy's JC transfers look pretty good. They get after it on the glass, as usual, but they seem to lack shooting.

Fresno - Beat Lamar 83-64 to move to 2-1. Will take more than one win to remove the stench of losing at home to Prairie View A&M.

Nevada - Beat a pretty decent Iona team 91-76 to move to 3-1. I don't like Musselman for some reason. Probably because he is winning. Anyway, Tyrell Williams is a bench big man for Iona in case anyone cares. Cam Oliver and Elijah Foster didn't as they both went for 20+.

UNM - No further games after the NMSU game CJ mentioned. Sitting at 3-0 and looking deep and talented.

SDSU - No games so they could all watch their FB team lose in Laramie. Big matchup with Cal tonight. Should be interesting game for us as we play them both.

SJSU - Mercifully they didn't play any more games. Wonder if the MWC could convince them to not play OOC or only play D2 schools so they don't screw up the conference RPI?

UNLV - Beat CSUF to move to 2-1. I think they will better than most think, but obviously will not be a great year by UNLV standards.

USU - Beat up Idaho State 85-51 to move to 3-0. The most notable team so far this season IMO. They look poised for a Top 3/4 finish and they have a big time freshman (McEwen) that is living up to the hype/recruiting rankings.



I think the MWC should finish better as a conference overall in terms of RPI and I think we will be back to 2-bid status this year.

 

[joshvanklomp]

Some other scores from the MWC/MVC Challenge already final:
Evansville 72, BSU 67
FSU 78, Drake 76 (OT)
Loyola 65, SDSU 59

 

[joshvanklomp]

Apparently there's a bunch of complaining about the MWC/MVC Challenge, that it may drop the Mountain West to a one-bid league.

To me, win the games on your schedule. New Mexico's problem at the end of the year won't be that they lost a road game to a team currently 65 in RPI, it's that they've only managed one win so far this season above a 190 RPI. UNI was the best opponent RPI that we've faced (by far). We took care of business, unlike the rest of the MWC.

 

[LanderPoke]

Who won/lost from the MWC vs. MVC challenge?

 

[NowherePoke]

Who won/lost from the MWC vs. MVC challenge?

Winners:

Pokes vs. UNI
AFA vs. Missouri State
Nevada at Bradley
Fresno State at Drake

Losers:

SDSU at Loyola
UNM at Illinois State
BSU at Evansville
CSU vs. Wichita St.
USU vs. Indiana St.

TBD:

UNLV vs. Southern Illinois



Pokes have the best win. USU, because it was at home, probably has the worst loss.

UNM played without their top player (Tim Williams) in their game at Illinois State (a Top 3 MVC team) and lost a close one, so that is probably not a big deal. SDSU losing is a disappointment as their at-large chances are not looking good now. Could be a one bid league again.

 

[NowherePoke]

Apparently there's a bunch of complaining about the MWC/MVC Challenge, that it may drop the Mountain West to a one-bid league.

To me, win the games on your schedule. New Mexico's problem at the end of the year won't be that they lost a road game to a team currently 65 in RPI, it's that they've only managed one win so far this season above a 190 RPI. UNI was the best opponent RPI that we've faced (by far). We took care of business, unlike the rest of the MWC.

I don't understand why there would be complaints. UNM's loss is understandable as they didn't have Tim Williams.

The MWC/MVC challenge is only one game and the only time I could see complaints is if a top team gets matched up against a bottom feeder that hurts their SOS. Nevada at Bradley could be that a little bit this year, but we will see.

 

[NowherePoke]

A few notes on where everyone stands:

AFA - AFA is 6-3. Missouri State is their best win. They are not very good defensively, but they can really shoot the ball. They lead the country in 3PT% (46.5%) and it isn't a fluke as they take plenty of perimeter shots.

BSU - BSU sits at 4-4, but they have played some tough games. Their win over SMU is one of the better wins in the MWC this year and they gave Oregon all they could handle in Eugene. This BSU team reminds me a lot of Wyoming's 13-14 team where Nance started to really establish himself as the go to star as a Junior even if the team had some growing pains during OOC play. Hutchison is that player for BSU as he has been a force this year. Their young PG, Paris Austin, is also a future star. One other interesting note, the player on their team with the lowest rebounding rate? Their center, the doughboy himself, Nick Duncan. He can still shoot though.

CSU - CSU sits at 6-2 and is one of the surprises of the early season. Their losses are to Stanford and Wichita State (both very respectable) and they hold a fairly dominant win over CU. They have done this without Gian Clavell, who was expected to be their leading scorer. As usual, they are a good rebounding team. Their JC transfers have played well, particularly Che Bob, and Omogbo has really taken the next step to become a dominant force up front. Due to Clavell's issues and all the transfers they have sitting out a year, they only have 9 players eligible to suit up but all 9 play so depth isn't a huge issue. Any injuries in the backcourt could really hurt them though as they don't have many bodies back there. They lead the country in % of points from the FT line.

Fresno - Fresno sits at 5-2, but they have the worst loss in the MWC this season (at home vs. Prairie View) along with a loss at CS-Bakersfield (probably equivalent to our Pacific loss). I have not seen Fresno play yet this year. Since joining the MWC, Fresno is probably the most consistent underperformer in OOC in terms of comparing OOC vs. conference play. This year looks like more of the same. They should be pretty decent in conference play, but will not help the conference RPI with their OOC performance.

UNM - Lobos are 5-3. All of their losses are respectable (neutral court against borderline top 50 opponents Dayton and VT and road loss at Top 100 Illinois State without Tim Williams), but they don't really have any notable wins and for a team with at-large aspirations the OOC has to be considered a disappointment. I still think they are a Top 3 MWC team though. Lots of talent on this roster. Another MWC team that really gets to the line at a high clip. Lobos are 7th in the country in FT Rate.

Nevada - Wolfpack is 7-2 and look to be a contender in the MWC. They will miss Elijah Foster who got into trouble off the court (I haven't really seen any updates so not sure at this point if he will be back), but they have some real talent in Oliver, Drew, Marshall, etc. Musselman has built a strong team in a short period of time. Here's hoping someone sees that and hires him away after this year.

SDSU - Aztecs are 4-2 with a solid win over Cal on a neutral court. The loss to Loyola is disappointing though and does not bode well for their at-large chances. Still the favorite to win the MWC. By far the best defensive team in the MWC.

SJSU - Things are looking up for the Spartans. They swept the Palouse road trip (Washington State, Idaho) and beat Santa Clara to get to 4-3. That may not seem like much, but those 3 D-1 wins are more OOC D-1 wins than they have had in the last 2 seasons combined and we are only halfway through OOC play. They play at Montana on Wednesday and that will be interesting to watch.

UNLV - Rebels are 5-3 with no real quality wins at this stage. Lost badly to Arizona State over the weekend (97-73). I still think they will be quite a bit tougher come conference play than some people think. They don't have a lot of roster continuity, but they do have some talent and Menzies is a better coach than Rice.

Utah St. - Aggies are 4-4 and owner of a 4 game losing streak. I had them pegged as an upper tier team earlier in the OOC, so as usual I look like an idiot. Actually, 3 of the losses are to good teams on neutral courts (Purdue, Texas Tech, BYU), but blowing a big lead at home in the Spectrum to Indiana State is not good.




General Notes:

1. Look for Officiating to be an issue this year in the MWC. I noted several teams above that have high FT rates and it is actually quite amazing. The MWC has 4 of the Top 25 teams in the country in FT rate per KenPom (CSU - 3rd, UNM - 7th, Pokes - 23rd, Nevada - 24th) and another in the Top 35 (Fresno - 34th). Keep in mind there are over 350 D-1 teams so almost half the MWC is in the Top 10% nationally. It will be interesting to see how games are officiated come conference play.

2. Disappointing year so far for the MWC. Bottom teams are better, but none of the top teams have really stood out. One-bid league status is definitely in play. There is a lot of youth in the league and several teams whose best years are coming up, but this collection of programs have too many resources to be performing collectively this poorly.

 

[joshvanklomp]

Apparently there's a bunch of complaining about the MWC/MVC Challenge, that it may drop the Mountain West to a one-bid league.

To me, win the games on your schedule. New Mexico's problem at the end of the year won't be that they lost a road game to a team currently 65 in RPI, it's that they've only managed one win so far this season above a 190 RPI. UNI was the best opponent RPI that we've faced (by far). We took care of business, unlike the rest of the MWC.

I don't understand why there would be complaints. UNM's loss is understandable as they didn't have Tim Williams.

The MWC/MVC challenge is only one game and the only time I could see complaints is if a top team gets matched up against a bottom feeder that hurts their SOS. Nevada at Bradley could be that a little bit this year, but we will see.

See for yourself: http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/sd-sp-azhoops-20161204-story.html

 

[NowherePoke]

Apparently there's a bunch of complaining about the MWC/MVC Challenge, that it may drop the Mountain West to a one-bid league.

To me, win the games on your schedule. New Mexico's problem at the end of the year won't be that they lost a road game to a team currently 65 in RPI, it's that they've only managed one win so far this season above a 190 RPI. UNI was the best opponent RPI that we've faced (by far). We took care of business, unlike the rest of the MWC.

I don't understand why there would be complaints. UNM's loss is understandable as they didn't have Tim Williams.

The MWC/MVC challenge is only one game and the only time I could see complaints is if a top team gets matched up against a bottom feeder that hurts their SOS. Nevada at Bradley could be that a little bit this year, but we will see.

See for yourself: http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/sd-sp-azhoops-20161204-story.html

Sorry Josh, I wasn't clear in my post. I didn't mean to question you on whether the complains exist, I just don't understand them.

Actually, I think they are a crock. They are coming from Steve Fisher and they are almost identical to his whining about having to come to Laramie. Screw them, if you can't win a basketball game after taking a plane trip that's your problem.

 

[wyo 1]

Apparently there's a bunch of complaining about the MWC/MVC Challenge, that it may drop the Mountain West to a one-bid league.

To me, win the games on your schedule. New Mexico's problem at the end of the year won't be that they lost a road game to a team currently 65 in RPI, it's that they've only managed one win so far this season above a 190 RPI. UNI was the best opponent RPI that we've faced (by far). We took care of business, unlike the rest of the MWC.

I don't understand why there would be complaints. UNM's loss is understandable as they didn't have Tim Williams.

The MWC/MVC challenge is only one game and the only time I could see complaints is if a top team gets matched up against a bottom feeder that hurts their SOS. Nevada at Bradley could be that a little bit this year, but we will see.

See for yourself: http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/sd-sp-azhoops-20161204-story.html

Sorry Josh, I wasn't clear in my post. I didn't mean to question you on whether the complains exist, I just don't understand them.

Actually, I think they are a crock. They are coming from Steve Fisher and they are almost identical to his whining about having to come to Laramie. Screw them, if you can't win a basketball game after taking a plane trip that's your problem.

I agree nowhere, I'm wondering if we'll here the same stuff after the get beat on the road at Grand Canyon Wednesday night. They lost last year at home to them, will we be hearing how it's bs that they scheduled them at all?

 

[joshvanklomp]

Honestly, that's why I think the complaints are more about the travel than who they had play. Because these teams are no worse than some of the other schools they schedule.

 

[joshvanklomp]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/GeoffGrammer/status/806713209709174787[/tweet]
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[tweet]https://twitter.com/GeoffGrammer/status/806717557600174080[/tweet]

 

[Cowboy Junky]

I vote for a straight swap of Utep and San Jose with a scheduling arrangement to get rid of Hawaii and an invitation to Wichita State as their replacement.

That sets us up to take Tulsa and Houston when the shit really hits the fan.

 

[joshvanklomp]

I vote for a straight swap of Utep and San Jose with a scheduling arrangement to get rid of Hawaii and an invitation to Wichita State as their replacement.

Only thing that would do is bump us down to 11 football schools and 12 schools in everything else, wouldn't it?

 

[NowherePoke]

Clavell returned for CSU today. They are probably a Top 3 team in MWC with him.

MWC really struggling overall. Bad day in the MWC. SDSU loses at home to ASU, UNM loses on the road to NMSU, AFA loses at home by 12 to DU.

WYO and USU both took care of business against quality teams from weaker conferences, but it came down to the last seconds in both cases (OT for USU, but it was on the road vs. UVU). Fresno beat up Cal Poly and SJSU played a local rec league team or something (whatever "Life Pacific" is).

Overall conference RPI isn't much different than the last couple of years, but that is because SJSU isn't the soul sucking anchor anymore. The top of the league has never been weaker.

 

[joshvanklomp]

Overall conference RPI isn't much different than the last couple of years, but that is because SJSU isn't the soul sucking anchor anymore. The top of the league has never been weaker.

I don't know that I'd say it's dramatically different.

Last year, SDSU finished at 42; Nevada is currently 42. There is a drop after that, as last year's second-best RPI (Fresno) doesn't have a comparable.

Next seven teams last year were rated 101 through 184. This year, the next seven are 99 through 183.

At the bottom last year were 226 and 300; this year are 202, 251 and 266.

So we've replaced a 69 with a sub-200. Interestingly, that can be tied directly to Fresno. Everything else falls into place roughly where they were last year, or at least has a comparable.

 

[NowherePoke]

Overall conference RPI isn't much different than the last couple of years, but that is because SJSU isn't the soul sucking anchor anymore. The top of the league has never been weaker.

I don't know that I'd say it's dramatically different.

Last year, SDSU finished at 42; Nevada is currently 42. There is a drop after that, as last year's second-best RPI (Fresno) doesn't have a comparable.

Next seven teams last year were rated 101 through 184. This year, the next seven are 99 through 183.

At the bottom last year were 226 and 300; this year are 202, 251 and 266.

So we've replaced a 69 with a sub-200. Interestingly, that can be tied directly to Fresno. Everything else falls into place roughly where they were last year, or at least has a comparable.

I get what you are saying, but going from 2 NIT/NCAA level teams to 1 is a pretty big difference. If Nevada were to win the regular season and tourney this year it is possible that they would be the only MWC team playing in the NCAA/NIT. That would be unprecedented for the MWC. It had historically been very rare for the MWC to be a one bid league. Without looking it up, I believe last year was only the 2nd time it had ever happened and that the participant had a much lower seeding than the previous occurrence and in the previous occurrence there were multiple NIT teams.

This is pretty much rock bottom for the top of the league.