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First Realignment rumor of the 2020s
- Thread starter Wyokie
- Start date
ugggh...the facade of national relevance for schools like Wyoming is crumbling....if not completely gone. I imagine this would trigger a rush to 4 conferences of 16 teams each. The Big 12 would get cannibalized...ND would join a conference (or not...they will be just fine)....at which point you will have "real" college football played in those conferences while the rest of everybody is just doing it for funzies or dropping their programs. The pittance of revenue that used to be allocated to G5 schools dwindles further....Non football sports programs suffer at G5 schools...this depresses me.
cowpoke pride
Well-known member
With the proposed changes to the CFP, I think some freaky stuff (like Texas and OU to the SEC) is going to happen. Super worried about the impact on the MWC this time around. The temptation for some MWC schools (Boise, UNLV, San Diego St and even Colorado St) to join a best of the rest conference after the P5 changes happen is going to be massive and I'm afraid that Wyoming and other MWC leftovers will be scrambling to piece something together out west.
Asmodeanreborn
Well-known member
cowpoke pride said:
This is definitely possible - as is there a risk that teams like Iowa State, Kansas, and Kansas State suddenly are not nearly as attractive for quality players anymore and they're left floundering trying to find somewhere else to go. Iowa State had already dropped to like 60th in recruiting for the 2021 class, Kansas was 63, and Kansas State was 56th. If Big XII collapses, I'm sure that will at least leave some high schoolers wondering if those schools are truly that good of a choice...
LanderPoke
Well-known member
This is going to suck for quite a few schools
LanderPoke said:
Baylor and Okie State are screaming bloody murder right now.
A Texas State Senator, I believe, is planning to submit a bill to the legislature that would require UT to get approval by the State of Texas itself to move out of the Big XII. BTW, this legislator happens to be a Baylor alum. :roll:
If Thompson was proactive (& we ALL know he isn't), he'd be on the phones now trying to get any of the leftover Big XII schools to join the Mountain West should OU & Texas leave.
The playoff should only accept conference champions. Let there be 8 conferences so these schools that band together to form super conferences significantly lose out on their opportunity for a playoff spot. This will balance conferences in no time at all. Then you'll see Texas in a conference with Wyoming level teams as they try to lock up a playoff spot every year.
CheyenneGunslinger
Well-known member
cowpoke pride said:
I would think Wyo would be a better choice than CSU to join a so called conference "the best of the rest"
I honestly don't think MW membership will change at all.
My prediction of where everyone in the Big 12 ends provided they don't try to add anybody to keep the Big 12 going...
OU and Texas to the SEC (I know...super obvious but still...)
Baylor, TCU, OSU, and Texas Tech all end up in the PAC-Pick A Number!!!!
Kansas and Iowa State end up in the Big Ten
WVU will go to the ACC along with Notre Dame Football
Which leaves K-State as the lone Big 12 school without a home. My guess...AAC (Navy, Tulsa, Memphis, etc...)
My prediction of where everyone in the Big 12 ends provided they don't try to add anybody to keep the Big 12 going...
OU and Texas to the SEC (I know...super obvious but still...)
Baylor, TCU, OSU, and Texas Tech all end up in the PAC-Pick A Number!!!!
Kansas and Iowa State end up in the Big Ten
WVU will go to the ACC along with Notre Dame Football
Which leaves K-State as the lone Big 12 school without a home. My guess...AAC (Navy, Tulsa, Memphis, etc...)
LanderPoke
Well-known member
I kind of think the MWC will be untouched too. The big 12 will backfill with AAC teams
cowpoke pride
Well-known member
CheyenneGunslinger said:
With all due respect my fellow Poke, you are high. Colorado St has exponentially higher odds of getting an invite/"call up" from whatever conference in this realignment fall out than Wyoming. Nothing against us. Its just the sad reality of what is of value (market size/eyeballs) in the modern college football world (brand new stadium doesn't hurt either).
ragtimejoe1
Well-known member
I'm thinking this isn't expansion but rather contraction when all is said and done. You can argue until you're blue in the face about which teams. Obviously, WYO won't be at the big boys table. The most likely debate, imo, isn't who gets called up to the big boy table but who gets demoted to the kiddie table.
If i'm wrong and this is a simple swap of teams, obviously Houston +1 goes to B12. The +1 won't be a MWC team and the AAC will look a lot less appealing to MWC teams.
If the B1G goes after PAC teams then the ball is in motion for contraction. MWC teams aren't likely going anywhere unless there is realignment in the newly formed second tier. Either way, no MWC is joining a new power league whatever the power league looks like.
If a major realignment/contraction happens then the leftover teams will have to form a new set of operating procedures. Nobody is getting "called up". What that means for the leftovers? Anyone's guess at this point.
If i'm wrong and this is a simple swap of teams, obviously Houston +1 goes to B12. The +1 won't be a MWC team and the AAC will look a lot less appealing to MWC teams.
If the B1G goes after PAC teams then the ball is in motion for contraction. MWC teams aren't likely going anywhere unless there is realignment in the newly formed second tier. Either way, no MWC is joining a new power league whatever the power league looks like.
If a major realignment/contraction happens then the leftover teams will have to form a new set of operating procedures. Nobody is getting "called up". What that means for the leftovers? Anyone's guess at this point.
ragtimejoe1
Well-known member
Dp
ragtimejoe1 said:
This is interesting to me. Ragtime, would you say that there is already an informal or "soft" second tier?
By this, I mean that in a technical sense...the MWC and the SEC both compete at the FBS level. That would seem to imply some sort of even access to all of the resources that contribute to a successful sports program. We all know this is completely untrue...the powerhouse programs of the MWC would not even come close to the basement of the SEC programs in program investment and expenditure.
Success on the field seems necessary for a program to be considered for inclusion at the "big boy table" but it looks like it is not sufficient. If success was all it takes I think Boise State makes a great case. The Big 10, SEC, and Pac 12 in particular seem like they are very concerned with "fit" across multiple domains. This is also the biggest hurdle that BYU has in getting an invitation to the PAC 12 since that conference does not have the stomach for BYU's particular religious affiliation despite the market they would bring to the table.
All of this adds up to me in an actual, formally defined second tier. There was probably a time when there was a chance that the NCAA would reign in the conferences and enforce some sort of equity and cooperation ... but we seem to be way past that.
ragtimejoe1
Well-known member
307bball said:
You are definitely right. The G5 vs P5 label was a de facto tiered system within college football.
I'm also with you on the thought that we are on the cusp of a formal tiered system where some of the P5 form a new system. The new "second tier" will likely see reorganization into conferences. They don't need more teams to make the big leagues of college football; they need rid of the traditional system. I can see a model where most of the P5 leagues cease to exist and are reorganized for a new division of college football that targets the playoffs but still maintains some sort of bowl system. The main question will be how many teams they keep. Strictly from a football standpoint, Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Michigan, Michigan St, Nebraska (historically), Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, OU, Texas, USC, Oregon, Washington, UCLA (maybe), Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, TAMU, Tennessee (maybe), etc. would cover most of the big dogs. You can fill out from there, but it sure won't be G5 schools. I think it is harder to find schools to fill up to say 36 teams than it is to figure out who to add to backfill conferences.
For WYO, I think it means more how the second tier is structured to absorb the P5 rejects. Do they try to form some sort of best of rest conference to grasp at relevancy or will the new tiered system be concrete resulting in more regional concerns for conference realignment?
It sure looks like changes are coming; will be interesting to see what plays out. The SEC and ACC have grant-of-rights agreements through about 2035. Obviously those contracts can be redone if the TV partners agree, but I would guess those teams that signed their grant-of-rights are somewhat bound. The other P5s come up in 23-24 which will provide a window for conference volatility. TV audiences for sports have been declining but online viewing/subscription platforms are expanding. Perhaps the trend of market size will become less important, and "brand name" programs with passionate fan bases (pay for subscriptions) will become more important. Example: Rutgers is a large market but wouldn't generate the subscription value of Nebraska. I think the era of expanding for markets is finished. They will be able to turn more money with fewer teams and marquee matchups.
CheyenneGunslinger
Well-known member
LanderPoke said:
I think the Big 12 is gone, once the move with OU and Texas to the SEC is finalized.
CheyenneGunslinger said:
I thought the same thing but the amount of money that the BIG 12 is due from their own rights stuff is pretty huge IF they can hang together (that is a big if). If the PAC and BIG 10 decide to not be aggressive in recruiting anybody I can see a scenario where Texas and OU have to pretty much abide by the letter of agreements they have signed. In that scenario, I could see the BIG 12 try and add teams....but you are probably right....that seems to be a less likely outcome.
