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Early line vs. Texas

B

bladerunnr

Well-known member
We are getting 26 1/2. Seems a bit low. They looked like a national champion contender last night.
I hope we don't get any injuries and that we make them work for it. Their QB is the real deal.

The sheep are getting 19 1/2 vs CU in Boulder. I'm not sure CU is that good but I'm pretty sure csewe is that bad. I would be very tempted to lay the points. I know one thing. NEVER bet on csewe.
 
I will be happy to get out of Austin with Peasley on his feet, and healthy running backs. Of course, the little voice in my head says: "You never know what is possible...."

CU is going destroy CSU. They will not let up on the gas, and their skill players are second to none.
 
On paper, we have an almost non-existent chance of winning this game. In fact, ESPN gives us a 2.7% chance of winning it. However, I have an oddly good feeling about this game. Here's why:

1) Texas beat Alabama. I was rooting hard for them to take down Alabama last night and they did just that. They will be coming down from an emotional high and thoughts of another long awaited national championship will start to make their way into the media discussion. This entire week will be littered with articles pumping up Texas and telling everyone how good they are. I doubt you even see a media mention of their next game against little ole Wyoming until Friday, the day before the game.

2) They start Big 12 play after their game with us. Coach Sark has decided this years team slogan is "embrace the hate". As you might expect, the remaining big 12 members are not thrilled Texas is leaving and really want to beat them in their last conference meeting. Even the Big 12 commissioner has openly taken shots at Texas in the media. As a result, Texas is very focused on winning the conference this year to rub it the Big 12's face. I can almost guarantee they are overlooking Wyoming with conference play starting the following week.

3) Relatively speaking, we match up OK with Texas. I watched almost every Texas game last season. I also watched their first two games of this year. Yeah, they looked great against Alabama last night, but that it not the typical Texas team I have seen over the past 1+ years. Did anybody watch their game against Rice in week 1 this year? Especially in the first half, they did not look good. They are very inconsistent. Quinn Ewers is very inconsistent. Ewers looked awesome in the first couple games of 2022 but looked very mediocre down the stretch of the season. This Texas team is capable of beating any team in college football on any given night...but, they are also capable of losing to teams they have no business losing to.

I'm not saying we are going to win this game. I'm not even saying that we won't get blown out. But if we can contain Xavier Worthy and we can win the turnover battle, this game will be uncomfortably close for Texas fans.
 
Lost Poke said:
I will be happy to get out of Austin with Peasley on his feet, and healthy running backs. Of course, the little voice in my head says: "You never know what is possible...."

CU is going destroy CSU. They will not let up on the gas, and their skill players are second to none.
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CSU had better remember to bring lots of anal lubricant with them. They're going to need it.
 
I think the Pokes could have blown out Portland State if they wanted to. But they didn't. They eased up on them. The question is will Texas do the same with the Pokes?
 
Adv8RU12 said:
I think the Pokes could have blown out Portland State if they wanted to. But they didn't. They eased up on them. The question is will Texas do the same with the Pokes?
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No way. They’ll go for style points to secure their spot in playoffs.
 
J-Bone said:
No way. They’ll go for style points to secure their spot in playoffs.
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Agreed. In the P5, to make the playoffs, you need all the points you can get. Hell in the G5, it's the same, but it seems some coaches don't know it.
 
sandiegopoke said:
J-Bone said:
No way. They’ll go for style points to secure their spot in playoffs.
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Agreed. In the P5, to make the playoffs, you need all the points you can get. Hell in the G5, it's the same, but it seems some coaches don't know it.
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I disagree. Whether Texas beats Wyoming by 14 or 40, neither is going to significantly move the needle with the Committee's view of Texas. I would think keeping their starters healthy heading into Big12 play would be a bigger concern for Texas.

From the NCAA Website:
What will the committee use to rank teams?
"The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members’ evaluation of the teams’ performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and comparison of results against common opponents to decide among teams that are comparable."
 
OrediggerPoke said:
I disagree. Whether Texas beats Wyoming by 14 or 40, neither is going to significantly move the needle with the Committee's view of Texas. I would think keeping their starters healthy heading into Big12 play would be a bigger concern for Texas.

From the NCAA Website:
What will the committee use to rank teams?
"The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members’ evaluation of the teams’ performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and comparison of results against common opponents to decide among teams that are comparable."
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It depends on whether we look similar to a competitor's team when they line us up as opponents, as I read it. In which case, the score would matter.
 
Disclaimer - Longhorn here.

Most likely, Texas will try to run a similar game plan as they did vs Rice - no tricks plays at all, no new plays that haven't been seen yet, try to pound the ball more than 'normal', and try to keep everyone healthy. If that is the case, the game could be much closer than the opening spread. Defense will blitz less frequentlyand nothing 'fancy', even on a third and long. If Texas is up by 2+ scores in the 4th, backup QB comes in and they rotate another level of the depth chart. Any possible run-up in score will be due to the Texas backups being fresh and the 'Pokes being worn out. Sark is not going to risk anything to 'run up' a score. He will not limit that backups, though, and will let them play the same game plan that the starters did.

Texas is mildly dinged up at RB, but probably not an issue for game day. No other injuries after 'Bama, which in of itself is rare.

Ways for Wyoming to upset -
- Texas comes out super flat after the emotional game last week;
- Wyoming manages to generate some pressure on Ewers and he reverts to last year's form. Rice did a decent job of getting pressure on him; 'Bama did not.
- As an aside, 'Bama could be in for a long year. Their line play (O and D) was surprisingly pedestrian and the QB got rattled and was not good at progressions or misdirection. Know little about your QB, but I can almost guarantee you that he is a better thrower than Milroe. In any case, I don't feel that the UT win was near as meaningful as it would have been with Bryce still there - or any of their last four or so QBs

Anyway, stay healthy and see y'all on Saturday.
 
Trainwreck20 said:
Disclaimer - Longhorn here.

Most likely, Texas will try to run a similar game plan as they did vs Rice - no tricks plays at all, no new plays that haven't been seen yet, try to pound the ball more than 'normal', and try to keep everyone healthy. If that is the case, the game could be much closer than the opening spread. Defense will blitz less frequentlyand nothing 'fancy', even on a third and long. If Texas is up by 2+ scores in the 4th, backup QB comes in and they rotate another level of the depth chart. Any possible run-up in score will be due to the Texas backups being fresh and the 'Pokes being worn out. Sark is not going to risk anything to 'run up' a score. He will not limit that backups, though, and will let them play the same game plan that the starters did.

Texas is mildly dinged up at RB, but probably not an issue for game day. No other injuries after 'Bama, which in of itself is rare.

Ways for Wyoming to upset -
- Texas comes out super flat after the emotional game last week;
- Wyoming manages to generate some pressure on Ewers and he reverts to last year's form. Rice did a decent job of getting pressure on him; 'Bama did not.
- As an aside, 'Bama could be in for a long year. Their line play (O and D) was surprisingly pedestrian and the QB got rattled and was not good at progressions or misdirection. Know little about your QB, but I can almost guarantee you that he is a better thrower than Milroe. In any case, I don't feel that the UT win was near as meaningful as it would have been with Bryce still there - or any of their last four or so QBs

Anyway, stay healthy and see y'all on Saturday.
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Good post. I agree with you on Alabama. They look like they took a major step back this year and are not the same Alabama team people have come to expect over the last decade.

I was at the UT-Notre Dame game in 2016 to open the season. I think Notre Dame was ranked 10th coming into that game and UT beat them in overtime. Looked like a great win. Then Notre Dame ended up going 4-8 that year.
 
I'm gonna go with 45-13 (UT) on this one.

Wyoming is slightly better than we thought, TTU may be slightly worse than we thought, PSU gave us some fits as I thought they would, and Texas is a bit better than I thought they'd be.

I think Wyoming will muddy it up for the first half the way we typically do...especially if our DL can pressure Ewers. But Texas will run away with it in the second half. UT may have some inconsistencies, but boy so do we. I think it's a wash and we'll see a pretty typical Top 10 blowout of a mid-tier G5 by the end.
 
DamThatRiver22 said:
I'm gonna go with 45-13 (UT) on this one.

Wyoming is slightly better than we thought, TTU may be slightly worse than we thought, PSU gave us some fits as I thought they would, and Texas is a bit better than I thought they'd be.

I think Wyoming will muddy it up for the first half the way we typically do...especially if our DL can pressure Ewers. But Texas will run away with it in the second half. UT may have some inconsistencies, but boy so do we. I think it's a wash and we'll see a pretty typical Top 10 blowout of a mid-tier G5 by the end.
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Your assessment is probably the most likely outcome, but I can't help but think of when Kansas went into Austin and beat UT in 2021. That Kansas team was much worse than this Wyoming team - their only other win that season was against South Dakota (by a score of 17-14).

Granted, this UT team is probably better than the 2021 UT team, but anything is possible.
 
Texas will want to get key players off the field as quickly as possible and get depth reps. I think we cover the spread. Not a huge bet but I got Pokes at +28.5.
 
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