Can a Mountain West Team Get to the Playoff?

[Yabadabadoo]

Story link: http://www.mwcconnection.com/2015/6/21/8821869/can-a-mountain-west-team-get-to-the-playoff" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

No.

But it's summer so let's talk the really, really long shots here.

Background

Four playoff spots, five power conferences, and one committee that doesn't think highly of the group of five.

Here is where G5 thanks Boise State for proving that it isn't just power programs that can win big games.

What Needs to Happen

It would obviously take an undefeated season. This is hard enough to do in football. Then, the undefeated team would have had to beaten two or more good P5 teams that season (CSU beating CU and Boston College wouldn't be enough). Lastly, the team couldn't have many close games. The rest of the country would have to view this team as a dominant team that hasn't even been tested yet. The team can't look like another Marshall.

Now, this is just what the MW team could do. Even if all of this happens, the team still probably wouldn't get in. The winner of the SEC, PAC12, and BIG10 will probably be in this year due to the difficulty of the conference. It would take the ACC and BIG12 frontrunners to both have 2-loss teams for the MW to have a chance.

At this point the statical odds of this happening are astronomical, but there is a scenario where it is possible.

Teams That Have About the Same Chance as Texas Seceding From the U.S.

San Diego State

Currently ranked in Phil Steele's top 40, SDSU would have to beat Cal and Penn State Away, along with Utah State at home and CSU away. Even with an undefeated season, strength of schedule might not be enough to get SDSU in. On their side, the Aztecs have a bit more name recognition on their side compared to many MW members. Also, besides the four mentioned games, SDSU has a ridiculously easy schedule.

Colorado State

CSU would have the daunting task of beating Utah State away and CU on neutral ground, but gets their two potentially hardest opponents, Minnesota and Boise State, at home. Once again, even with an undefeated season, strength of schedule might not be enough. CU would have to have a good season in the Pac12 and Minnesota would have to win their division or something along those lines. Best case scenario, Minnesota also beats the BIG12 frontrunner, TCU, then loses to CSU. Still probably wouldn't be enough though.

Team With the Same Chance as the BIG12 Adding Boise State to the Conference

Boise State

Boise gets the added bonus of being really successful in the past. BSU gets BYU and Virginia away, and Washington at home. In conference, Boise plays at CSU and Utah State. With four pretty hard road games, a Boise State undefeated season would look pretty strong. Once again, the problem is that right now Boise is already ranked higher than all of the teams it will play. Boise would have to hope that one of their non-conference oppenents ends up having a stellar season. For instance, a Washington team that... somehow.. wins the Pac12 north, and a BYU that goes 10-2 or something.

Utah State

I think it would be a shock to everyone not in the MW conference, but Utah State certainly has the best shot at the Playoff this year. It USU can get past Washington and Utah away, they have BSU, CSU and BYU all at home (Also, watch out for the at Air Force game, Love CSU and Boise State). Three power opponents in Washington, Utah and BYU, along with Boise State would give Utah State a very compelling case if they went undefeated. Utah State's name recognition isn't the greatest, so it would take some of their P5 opponents to have great years and like all the other potential scenarios, a two loss ACC and BIG12 team.

 

[J-Rod]

Only Boise State. The rest of the MW is several major bowl appearances *and* victories away from having even a *prayer*. Not a chance, a prayer.

Realistically, it's just not happening. Everyone should shift their end goal to making a major bowl. The playoffs? That committee loaded with the ADs/Presidents of P5 schools would never allow it. SOS is now more important than ever.

To be honest, even if it's June...it's barely even worth talking about. I have a better chance of being hit by two buses, and being consumed by a polar bear (it's 100 degrees outside) before midnight than a MW team making the 4-team playoff.

 

[Yabadabadoo]

Only Boise State. The rest of the MW is several major bowl appearances *and* victories away from having even a *prayer*. Not a chance, a prayer.

Realistically, it's just not happening. Everyone should shift their end goal to making a major bowl. The playoffs? That committee loaded with the ADs/Presidents of P5 schools would never allow it. SOS is now more important than ever.

To be honest, even if it's June...it's barely even worth talking about. I have a better chance of being hit by two buses, and being consumed by a polar bear before midnight than a MW team making the 4-team playoff.

That's as impulsively creative as anything I've seen in some time. Bravo, J-Rod!

 

[stymeman]

Boise's national appeal i think it could happen, pending who they play in non conf

 

[BeaverPoke]

If anyone can it's Boise.

But if they do it they need to be coming off like back to back undefeated season and back to back NY6 bowl wins over big time programs, then have a BRUTAL ooc schedule like @Bama, @USC, and @Ohio State then win all 3, then hope the MWC -MTN is loaded with 8 and 9 win teams, and avoid the bad teams from the MWC-West and obviously win every game in conference play and win the MWC Championship over a ranked opponent.

AKA they need everything to fall in line so much that there is no way they can be left out. Probably won't happen though. Unless the playoff is 8 or 16 teams.

 

[WyoBrandX]

This is ridiculous.

Seriously - way too much money being made out there in college athletics. The same places making all the money are also receiving huge funding from the federal goverment.

Really - the Feds need to step up and say "your all equal, you will play sports equally. you will educate equally. if you chose to not do so, you can do it on your own without federal money."

College athletics is as close as ever to being a Monopoly. There is no equality in involved.

 

[ragtimejoe1]

My off the cuff reaction is no way in Hades because "the man" is keeping us down. This year? I don't think anyone has the horses or schedule. Terribly weak MWC slate is a killer for such dreams.

In the future, if we survive in this system (i.e. the P5 doesn't split), it actually isn't out of the realm of possibility. I think the MWC should adapt to the system. Here is how I would structure if I were in charge:

We have 2 divisions so make sure everyone plays within division = 5 games.
Make a rule that division champions play in MWC champ game and only the 5 games count towards division championship.
Allow interdivision games that essentially are like OOC games if schools would like to.
This would also allow schools to schedule up to 7 OOC games.

If you are a BSU, you have lots of room to improve your schedule. If you are a WYO, you can play more cross division games for easier scheduling.

Really, outside of AF, CSU, and UNM, there isn't one other team in the MWC that I care about playing annually. We need to adapt.

 

[WyoBrandX]

My off the cuff reaction is no way in Hades because "the man" is keeping us down. This year? I don't think anyone has the horses or schedule. Terribly weak MWC slate is a killer for such dreams.

In the future, if we survive in this system (i.e. the P5 doesn't split), it actually isn't out of the realm of possibility. I think the MWC should adapt to the system. Here is how I would structure if I were in charge:

We have 2 divisions so make sure everyone plays within division = 5 games.
Make a rule that division champions play in MWC champ game and only the 5 games count towards division championship.
Allow interdivision games that essentially are like OOC games if schools would like to.
This would also allow schools to schedule up to 7 OOC games.

If you are a BSU, you have lots of room to improve your schedule. If you are a WYO, you can play more cross division games for easier scheduling.

Really, outside of AF, CSU, and UNM, there isn't one other team in the MWC that I care about playing annually. We need to adapt.

Personally, I think the goverment needs to shut down funds to the P5 if they split. There is a shit load of data there that needs to be explorered.

In the mean time, we need to market like crazy - go to a p5 school if you want to a dumb athlete without an education or a job when your done. Come over to the MWC if you want to put some knowlege into your brain and play some hardcore college sports. We can't outspend the P5 - but we can sure outwhit them. We have a hell of alot less to lose than they do.